MANCE MAY BE QORGYLE"S BASTARD

[bemused]

It's tempting to see a possible link between Mance and Rhaegar or Bloodraven or Aemon because of the black and red of his cloak, but the Targaryens are not the only house to feature black and red in their arms.

I've had a sneaking suspicion of the following for some time, and I've mentioned it to varying degrees in a couple of places, but now with a few more little hints in TWoIaF ( here spoilered), I'm feeling it's even more likely and may desrve it's own thread.

To begin, here's Mance's description from the wiki - Mance is of middling height, long legged and lean, broad in the chest and shoulders, and sharp-faced with brown eyes and long brown hair gone mostly to gray, and laughter lines appear at the corners of his mouth. He has a sharp face and shrewd brown eyes. He is an unremarkable-looking man in his middle years, with a fondness for music.

And Qorgyle's wiki info - Lord Commander Qorgyle entered the Night's Watch some time before Ser Denys Mallister. During his term, Castle Black used to send patrols east towards Eastwatch-by-the-Sea every third day and west towards the Shadow Tower every second day. It was during his time as Lord Commander that Mance Rayder deserted the Watch, at a time when Jon Snow was already living in Winterfell.

Mance deserted during Qorgyle's tenure and I don't think there's any question that Mance would also have been born during Qorgyle's time at the wall .

We have no firm dates for Qorgyle, but we have some for Denys Mallister and Jeor Mormont and we can use these to make some informed estimates.

Using Denys Mallister as our starting point : as of 300 AC, Mallister had commanded the Shadow Tower for thirty-three years. Since 267, then. He's unlikely to have been appointed to command immediately. Then the wiki tells us that Jeor Mormont " rapidly rose through the ranks and was elected Lord Commander in 288 AC " (He was most probably with Ned during RR ,which ended in 283... so in 5yrs or less he became LC , depending on how quickly he joined the NW after RR) It may have taken as long or longer than 5 yrs. for Mallister to become commander of the Shadow Tower, and he tells us that Qorgyle was already at the Wall before him.

Now, we don't know the year of Qorgyle's election , but I think we can deduce that his term as LC was a long one by reading between the lines in what Denys Mallister has to say..

Mallister tells Jon...“It was a hard thing young Samwell asked of me,” the old knight confessed. “When Lord Qorgyle was chosen, I told myself, ‘No matter, he has been longer on the Wall than you have, your time will come.’ When it was Lord Mormont, I thought, ‘He is strong and fierce, but he is old, your time may yet come." .. ADWD

(Mormont was old . Born in 230 AC, he would have been 58 when elected, 69 when he was murdered in 299.)

... Note that Mallister thinks of Mormont as old when he was elected at 58 , but makes no observation on Qorgyle's age at his election. Yet when Mance tells Jon of his first visit to Winterfell, he says he was with "old Lord Qorgyle." So by no later than sometime 288 AC (the year of Mormont's election), we have Qorgyle described as being old. He must have held command long enough to grow old.. Now, in Jon's memory, Mance was "a young ranger" at the time of that visit , but Mance's relative youth doesn't account for him describing Qorgyle as old when he recounts the story to Jon, since by that time, Mance is a middle aged man (say, 35-40, judging by his mostly grey hair) who would recognise Qorgyle's relative age in hindsight.

Looking at Mance's and Jon's recollections of that early visit, things get pretty interesting. They meet while Mance is walking the battlements ; the boys are piling up snow over the gate, ready to dump on some likely victim below. I don't think the boys would be allowed the freedom to be mucking about on the battlements under the age of five, and I wouldn't expect they could execute their plan if they were any younger than that... At the same time, they couldn't have been any older than five, because Jon defects to Mance in 299 ( the year of Mormon't death) when he was 16 yrs. old.

Mormont's command lasted 11 yrs, beginning sometime in 288 ...

Jon would have been 5 sometime in 288 ... Qorgyle must have died in 288 , hence the election... and Mance deserted during Qorgyle's tenure ? Well, if so, I would bet it was at the very tail end - some time in 288, just before or perhaps even after LCQ's death, but before Mormont's election.

This must also be the year of Mance's fateful ranging when he was mauled by the shadow cat. It doesn't seem like it could have been earlier, unless he had a very delayed reaction to the forbidden cloak episode (which is remotely possible, I suppose..). Still, I'm thinking :

1) the visit to WF early in the year, followed by

2) the ranging, Mance's return and then

3) either his defection and Qorgyle's death, or those last 2 in reverse order.

In short, a very eventful year for Mance. ( I wouldn't be at all surprised to learn that more than the forbidden cloak motivated him , or perhaps that the cloak represented more than freedom to him. )

If Mance is 35-40 when Jon defects to him , that would have made him 24-29 at the time of his first visit to WF. That's still young enough for Jon to remember him as a young ranger ... well, 24 is, for sure .. and even 29 might still seem young, due to his lean build and good-natured demeanor, especially if his hair wasn't greying yet. At the same time, it would make Mance old enough to be compatible with Jon's first impression of him when they meet in Mance's tent. This would date Mance's birth sometime between 259 and 264. If Mallister became commander of the Shadow Tower in 267, I'd say there's a good likelihood that Qorgyle was at the wall for 259-264 , certainly for 264.

I suspect that Qorgyle rose up through the rangers, judging by his heavy emphasis on ranging as LC. I'd think he would be a pretty hardy individual, used to coping with a harsh environment (though hot, instead of cold) and a good rider (though better used to sand steeds, instead of garrons). It seems to me that the rangers would have been a good fit for him. If so, he must have spent a good deal of time beyond the wall before becoming LC.

Now add in the Dornish attitudes to paramours and bastards, and I think I'd be more surprised if he hadn't had a liason or two beyond the Wall, than if he had. The Dornish have no problem recognising their bastards and even physically claiming them and promoting them (see Oberyn) .. the NW however, does have a problem with this.

As a ranger, if he had a bastard north of the wall, there wouldn't be much Qorgyle could do for him, except maybe check up on him while on a ranging... But after becoming LC, his hands would no longer be tied. He still couldn't formally recognise the boy ( bad for morale) but he could take him in and raise him in the Watch (keeping him at a suitable distance ,of course). ... And why the Shadow Tower? Might he not think there was some benefit to the boy in being able to observe an educated , courteous commander ? Especially if he had a thought of grooming the boy to lead...

This is exactly what I think he was doing with Mance, whether he was Mance's father or not.

Castle Black is directly north of WF, yet Qorgyle rode south from the Shadow Tower when he came to have discussions with Ned, bringing Mance (assigned to the ST) with him. Why would he go out of his way like that ?.. It may have been specifically to collect Mance - to give him experience , introduce him to Ned, etc.

Qorgyle seems to me to have been a fairly active LC, and he had the benefit of having more men, and probably some better suited to hold the Wall in his absence than Bowen Marsh .. So he could ride south to see Ned or perhaps drop in on the Shadow Tower or Eastwatch, now and then.. let the men see their LC , and perhaps check on the progress of a certain young recruit at the same time.

According to Jon in ASoS .... I’ve heard that Lord Commander Qorgyle used to send them (patrols) out every third day from Castle Black to Eastwatch-by-the-Sea, and every second day from Castle Black to the Shadow Tower. The Watch had more men in his day, though. Lord Commander Mormont prefers to vary the number of patrols and the days of their departure, to make it more difficult for anyone to know their comings and goings. ...More men means greater freedom for the LC.

We're given two different stories of how Mance came to be in the NW., one through Qhorin and one through Selyse..

He was wildling born, taken as a child when some raiders were put to the sword. - Qhorin, ASoS

“Gerrick is the true and rightful king of the wildlings,” the queen said, “descended in an unbroken male line from their great king Raymun Red-beard, whereas the usurper Mance Rayder was born of some common woman and fathered by one of your black brothers.” - Selyse, ADWD

I think these may both hold part of the truth. Selyse's version seems to have come from Gerrick Kingsblood , since she calls Mance a usurper, and while we understand Gerrick lies about his own heritage.. he has no reason to lie about Mance's. Mance claims no descent from any other King-Beyond-the-Wall , and rangers who've slept with wildlings aren't exactly unheard of.

Selyse probably has the right of it as regards Mance's paternity , but wildlings may well have been put to the sword for some reason. (They may even have taken young Mance hostage, if they knew who his father was.)

At the same time, the story of the LC who tried to leave the wall to his son must be well known in the watch and in TWoIaF there's an interesting elaboration..

Lord Commander Runcel Hightower attempted to leave the Watch to his bastard son some five hundred years ago. - TWoIaF , p. 146

.. If Mance is Qorgyle's son, and being groomed for eventual command , that story would strike a bit close to home. Best to leave Mance's paternity out of the story given to the NW.

Yet someone made sure to give Mance a last name. Why bother ? Wildlings and common men on the wall alike , don't have last names. I think this would only be important to a nobleman.. and the name would be in keeping with those of noble bastards south of the Wall. What is the territory beyond the Wall famous for ? Raiders, for one thing. ..I doubt the name is just a joke , or it would probably have been shortened further to a nickname, like Giant, or Horse (e.g. "Raider") or stretched into a description, like Owen the oaf, or Fulk the flea (e.g. "Mance the raider"). Mance's name is of a kind with Jon Snow or Edric Storm, suggesting a noble bastard.

Then there are the visual clues. The Qorgyle arms are 3 black scorpions on red. Mance points out the red patches on his cloak to Jon - "... Do you see? Here, here, and here?" ..(ASoS) ...That's 1-2-3, red on black - a suitable reversal.

Mance's helm with the raven wings might be symbolic of different things to different people. To the NW and maybe to some wildlings, it might say "This is how I intend to treat the black crows", but it might also be owning who he is , like Tyrion advising Jon to own "bastard". And if Qorgyle was his father and he knows it , it might be a nod to him as LC as well.

If he's Qorgyle's son, would Mance know ? Possibly... Think back to 288 AC again. We don't know what Qorgyle went to discuss with Ned , but considering that Qorgyle was old and that he must have died in 288, perhaps he had a sense then, that he didn't have long to live. He may not have been wanting to discuss only NW matters. If Qorgyle had a bastard who he wanted to someday know not only his parentage, but his heritage ; if he wanted someone to preserve some documentation of it.. perhaps to be revealed privately after his death... who better to turn to, than a man who famously had a bastard of his own that he recognised, and was raising with his true born children ... a man who was also known to be honourable ? ( Of course in such a case, Ned would be even more sympathetic to someone preserving a child's secret heritage than Qorgyle could possibly know.) All that said , I don't think it's impossible that Qorgyle would have told Mance at least who his father was (perhaps on the way back to the Wall) or that further information, or documentation had been left with Ned.

Now think ahead to the events of ADWD. Mance's own future is far from certain. I assume he had some agreement with Stannis ( yes, I think Stannis knows about the glamour), but we don't know what it is. Irregardless, Mance's survival is not guaranteed . But now he has a son , himself. If there's some believable accounting of his Qorgyle heritage, it still could benefit his child , even if it comes too late for him. Mance could be in Winterfell looking for evidence of his own birthright, or evidence of someone who, if worst came to worst, might care enough to rescue or ransom his son from captivity with Stannis. .. He may not be after some magical artifact at all. (Or it could be both)

I've now come to my final point (so far). ..In AFfC, in discussing Mel and King's blood, Jon says ...

"... It’s nonsense. Mance’s blood is no more royal than mine own. ..." ... Knowing what we "know" about Jon's blood, this comment practically cries out for some ironic revelation that Mance's blood is indeed royal.

We "know" that some of Jon's royal blood comes to him through his mother. As Qorgyle's son, there would be a strong possibility that royal blood courses in Mance's veins from Qorgyle's female antecedents. House Qorgyle now owes fealty to the Martells (with both Rhoynish and Targaryen blood) and formerly owed fealty to the Yronwoods, who were, at one time, kings in their own right. It would be natural that daughters of those houses might have been married into house Qorgyle over the years. ( Oberyn was fostered with the Qorgyles... might there not have been some existing blood ties between the houses ? )

Mance is fond of singing "The Dornishman's Wife". ... This is one of the hints that made me start considering whether he might be Qorgyle's son in the first place. Now, as far as king's blood is concerned, I think it is indeed the Dornishman's Wife, not the Dornishman, that's the important clue.

There are possibly two sly references to this : one from ASoS and one from TWoIaF , both spoken by scions of House Martell. In the first, Cersei has hinted that she would be willing to marry Oberyn if he delivered her Tyrion's head. Oberyn illustrates his disinterest by relating the story of a Lord Tyrell, his lust for Dornish women and subsequent death by red scorpions ..( like Mance's red slashes) ...

“ ... if I should ever find a sash beside my own bed, and pull on it, I would sooner have the scorpions fall upon me than the queen in all her naked beauty.”

And from TWoIaF ...

During the Dance of the Dragons, both sides courted the Dornishmen, but Prince Qoren refused to take part :"Dorne has danced with dragons before," he is reported to have said in response to Ser Otto Hightower's letter. " I would sooner sleep with scorpions." - TWoIaF , p.246

Two Martells, generations apart, who would willingly bed down with "scorpions", suggests that Martells probably have done exactly that. ..I feel pretty confident that we will learn of at least Martell / Qorgyle marriages, and probably Yronwood / Qorgyle as well... This could mean that both Jon and Mance do have king's blood and in both cases, it comes to them through a female forbear.

[Vivec]

That's nice, but the Ranger that created Mance was exectued. so...

[bemused]

If that's so I missed it (after multiple readings). ;) Where does that information come from ?

[Dorian Martell]

That is a lot of thought you put into it. Mance's dad being an unknown is part of what drives his character. Making him a son of a prominent watch member doesn't add anything to mance's character

[bemused]

That is a lot of thought you put into it. Mance's dad being an unknown is part of what drives his character. Making him a son of a prominent watch member doesn't add anything to mance's character

I can't quite agree with that. It certainly hasn't driven him in the sense of seeking for knowledge of his father ... not that we've seen. But then, he may ,in fact, know who his father is. If it's Qorgyle, he may have told him before he died .. or some wildling may have known and told him. He may even remember.. he wasn't a babe in arms when he came to the watch.

(My hypothesis / suspicions about Val and Dalla being seers could play into this.)

I don't think he turned his back on everything about the watch when he left. We see the practice of LCs grooming likely young men for leadership (which I think Qorgyle was doing with Mance, son or no).

Why are Kings-beyond-the-Wall so few and far between ?.. because when the King dies the whole process must begin again, and as we're told (paraphrase) each man thinks himself as good as a king.

I think there are signs that Mance was adapting a practice of the NW, and grooming Jarl the climber to be his possible successor. He tells Jon Jarl is Val's pet , Styr tells Jon that Jarl is Mance's pet. .. Yes, Jarl would still have to win the others over, but he'd have a much easier time of it if he'd been guided and helped to develop by Mance.

Then the Wall killed Jarl (shook him off as a dog shakes off fleas). And now we see Val apparently accepting Jon as the next wildling leader..Tormund agrees..and Mance may be of the same opinion.

As Rattleshirt, Mance tried very hard to hint his true identity to Jon. He knows that if it becomes known that he ran the "Arya" mission for Jon, the wildlings will see that as taking a subordinate position to Jon.

If he's Qorgyle's son, I think it adds depth to Mance's character that we didn't know was there.

[Dorian Martell]

theories based on assumptions based on more theories. Mance's relationship with his father does not play a role in his story. Who his dad is matters not. IF mance had a connection to his father who was a lord commander of the watch, would he have left he watch over strips of silk in his cloak? He is a wildling child raised by the black brothers. THat is why he was so offended when they took his cloak away

[bemused]

We can't be sure Mance's heritage plays no part in his story line, because the story isn't finished yet. We've had relatively little stated outright about Mance's origins.. but what little there is, is given in two competing versions. So, GRRM has set this question up, himself ... and I don't believe he does this kind of thing to no purpose, or unwittingly.

I'm not so sure that Mance did leave only because he wasn't allowed to wear his cloak.. I'm sure that was a part of it (or that the cloak was symbolic of other problems). Mance was a little before his time. We now see Jon wrestling with the same sort of thing in regard to the NW oath.. understanding what is the original, important essence of the oath vs. conventions or political addendums that have grown up around it.

They are both resisting the kind of hidebound thinking that ultimately works against the purpose of the Watch.

When Jon and Mance meet after Jon's defection, Jon is less than completely truthful about his reasons for joining Mance ... but his story is not completely untrue either. I suspect that Mance is doing much the same thing in his story to Jon.

Even if the Others were not yet beginning to stir when he left the Watch, Mance must have had a sense that wildlings shouldn't be seen as the enemy... the same conclusion that both Mormont and Jon came to later.

[Musashisamurai]

Jeor joined the Nights Watch after the Greyjoy Rebellion, I thought-when Jorah was knighted and won lots of glory for himself, Jeor fekt it was time that his son could be Lord Mormont and gave him Longclaw before departing for the Wall.

[Clegane'sPup]

For me, Mance is an interesting character and I hope to see more of his backstory in the upcoming books.

His interest in the Starks baffles me and I think that his parentage would shed some light on his interest in the Starks.

He knows what the Other's can do. IIEC that is why he was trying to get the wildling south of the wall.

Appreciate the topic. :read:

[BitsOfBrains]

I like the amount of effort put into this but I am not feeling it.

What would revealing Mance as the bastard son of a character whom 97% of readers wouldn't even recognize add to his character?

[bemused]

Jeor joined the Nights Watch after the Greyjoy Rebellion, I thought-when Jorah was knighted and won lots of glory for himself, Jeor fekt it was time that his son could be Lord Mormont and gave him Longclaw before departing for the Wall.

It can't have been after the Greyjoy Rebellion.That took place in 289 AC, but Jeor had already been elected LC in 288 AC.

But you're right in that the wiki does say.. Before Robert's Rebellion,^[7] presumably shortly,^[8] Jeor abdicated his seat, leaving the lordship of Bear Island to his son, Ser Jorah Mormont, and joined the Night's Watch. He rapidly rose through the ranks and was elected Lord Commander in 288 AC.^[9]

^{The only difference that makes to my hypothesis is that Mormont would have been at the wall 7yrs. or so, instead of 5 before being elected. I'll have to check that Tyrion chapter with his conversation with Mormont. I don't remember any mention of RR, which is what made me think he was probably there. Either way, it makes no difference to our speculation on Mance's backstory.}

[bemused]

I like the amount of effort put into this but I am not feeling it.

What would revealing Mance as the bastard son of a character whom 97% of readers wouldn't even recognize add to his character?

Who says it has to "add" to his character ? I don't understand where the idea of this as a requirement is coming from. His character is as GRRM has conceived it.

What any future revelation about Mance may do is add to our understanding of Mance. Because GRRM has not revealed his backstory completely, and has not given us the benefit of his POV, we can't be sure that we completely understand his motivations in the action that he takes.

[-SaH-]

It's interesting assumption, but if I must choose, for me more devious is theory that Mance is Rhaegar :)

I know, I know, but both of those theories are only assumption, with little text proofs (and in that case more is for MR=RT).

[Viking]

While this is a well put together and coherent theory, it makes no sense. I'm left pondering, "so what"?. So what if Mance is Qorgyles bastard son?

That said, given Mance's age Qorgyle is the only named Black Brother which could have fathered him. Well apart from Denys Mallister I think.

However Mallister has a role in the story. He's the contrast to Cotter Pyke. Knight vs Commoner, Old vs Young, Honorable vs Devious. Its a mini fable about how it take all sorts to make up the nights watch and how Jon becomes the embodiment of both. Since then both sort of disappear from the story, apart from the battle and the Stone Bridge and Cotter Pykes run to Hardhome.

Plus Mallister has said nothing about Rayder at any point.

So, yes, Qorgyle might be his father, but I ask you, what is the point of that?

Also, as Jon said, "Mance's blood is no more royal than mine own.", Even as King or Stark Bastard Jon's blood is more noble than Qorgyles bastard.

[LmL]

It's interesting assumption, but if I must choose, for me more devious is theory that Mance is Rhaegar :)

I know, I know, but both of those theories are only assumption, with little text proofs (and in that case more is for MR=RT).

Mance is not Rhaegar. Mance was adopted by the watch when he was young. Rhaegar died in front of hundreds of people.

Not tryin to be negative, but Mance Rhaegar theory has been definitively debunked. I liked it at first too, as I love both characters, but it isn't so.

As for the OP, I say "bravo, good work." It's very good research and quite convincing. Not every secret lineage has to be of world shaking importance.. I think it's makes his character richer, considering his love of playing "The Dornishman's Wife." I think George puts these kind of low level mysteries in just for the reader. It's a fun Easter egg and serves as a red herring for the secret heritage that do have more direct impact - like the eminently awesome "Bloodraven + Shierra Seastar = Melissandre" theory.

Great job. I plan to look for more symbolism in support of this idea.

[-SaH-]

Up.

That's why I wrote "I know, I know" - but fighting skills, commanding skills, playing lute - and everybody know the story of him, but nearly nobody knows him from NW....

But as I said - I prefer it, but not in 100% believe it :)

[OmnomnomPomelo]

This was discussed in October last year immediately after The World of Ice and Fire was released, in "The World of Ice and Fire" subforum.

[LmL]

This was discussed in October last year immediately after The World of Ice and Fire was released, in "The World of Ice and Fire" subforum.

...and? Anything interesting come up? Or was that the last conversation that shall ever be allowed? You could at least leave a link, but seriously, what's with the "we are talked about that, sorry" vibe?

I for one am disappointed by the crappy responses to this well thought-out and well researched post. Shaking my head.

Mance Raydar is definitively NOT Rhaegar. Showing up to simply tell everyone you prefer a disproven theory to this one which has a fair amount of supporting evidence... comes across as a lack of respect for the OP, in my opinion. What about THIS post, the one you are commenting on? What about the OP's ideas? I'm not trying to hit anyone over the head with a stick or anything, but I just wish people would show a little more respect to others when they take the time to come up with a theory like this, instead of simply commenting to talk about their other preferred theory, unless one has something to do with the other. It's a really bad habit a lot of people have - commenting on threads just to disagree or say "well I like this other idea better."

I really wish we could give each post and theory, particularly well researched and written ones like this, it's own space to breathe and evolve without hammering it with other theories, but that's just me.

*climbs off soapbox*

[OmnomnomPomelo]

I didn't plan this to be offensive. Just pointed out that this was discussed, so if you're interested in what was spoken you can find it, I didn't want to search for it.

[LmL]

I didn't plan this to be offensive. Just pointed out that this was discussed, so if you're interested in what was spoken you can find it, I didn't want to search for it.

Right on, apologies then. But to the question - was there anything interesting said there that pertains to this thread? Are you saying Mance's parentage was discussed in general, or this specific theory about Lord Qorgyle?