UK Politics: General Election Triviality

[ljkeane]

Haha, ffs.

Anyway, I don't give a shit about the opinions of most of these parties and I can't even bring myself to care much about what the leaders of the major parties have to say. Not a fan of tv debates overall, they really don't reveal anything much.

[SeanF]

Love Farage. The only one speaking from the gut, telling it like it is, rather than from some post-nation state vision for the future.

Farage leads at half-time, according to Com Res, with 24% rating him the best.

But.......22% rate him the worst.

[MinDonner]

Who on earth told Milliband to harp on about zero-hours contracts to the exclusion of all else? I went into this debate thinking that either "working families" or "deficit" would be the most annoying phrases, but he managed to blow both of those out of the water.

[Commodore]

voters influenced by debates are the worst kind of fickleness

[Hereward]

No, voters influenced by partisan talk radio are. By a head.

[Deedles]

Wait a sec there. Voters influenced by debate are bad..... So, the ability to craft and deliver a message is a "bad" thing. As is the ability to listen to what people say and form a judgement after hearing what has been said.i don't know about you, but I take both those traits as good ones rather than blindly sticking to a party line with neither discrimination nor understanding.

I felt Natalie Bennet did poorly and rather muffled her chance to really bring Green policy (such as it is) out. She had the chance to articulate a clear different plan without being attacked by others as small fry. Sad, a missed opportunity. While I didnt think Woods was good, I do think she played to her core constituency and will be quite happy with her performance.

Sturgeon seemed to be settining SNP up as viable coalition partners.

I thought Clegg was probably the stand out performer, though only barely. I think it unfortunate that the Lib Dems are going to be walloped.

[Commodore]

Wait a sec there. Voters influenced by debate are bad..... So, the ability to craft and deliver a message is a "bad" thing. As is the ability to listen to what people say and form a judgement after hearing what has been said.i don't know about you, but I take both those traits as good ones rather than blindly sticking to a party line with neither discrimination nor understanding.

Sadly, we put a premium on extemporaneous speaking as a qualification for our political leaders. Especially with voters that are "getable" and easily persuaded by a sound bite.

[Lummel]

To my surprise I found the debate entertaining, it was like watching a game of Diplomacy in which everybody is sticking the knife into each other, watching the local fighting between PC and Labour, then SNP and Labour, Farage looked like a fish - which gave me an idea for his upcoming monster slash, Wurzel Cameron was wearing his Prime Ministerial head. Nicola Sturgeon was the big surprise for me since as a southerner my exposure to the SNP had been limited to Salmond, she spoke well I thought. Nobody won so continues the current trend to a very hung parliament.

So, what's the betting on a second election in the autumn or early next year then? :)

[HexMachina]

Catching the highlights on the news this morning and online. So far I've found Sturgeon to be the most impressive. None of the others did particularly well imo. Rather disappointed in the polls that suggest Farage did well, as far as I can tell he was terrible.

[SeanF]

To my surprise I found the debate entertaining, it was like watching a game of Diplomacy in which everybody is sticking the knife into each other, watching the local fighting between PC and Labour, then SNP and Labour, Farage looked like a fish - which gave me an idea for his upcoming monster slash, Wurzel Cameron was wearing his Prime Ministerial head. Nicola Sturgeon was the big surprise for me since as a southerner my exposure to the SNP had been limited to Salmond, she spoke well I thought. Nobody won so continues the current trend to a very hung parliament.

So, what's the betting on a second election in the autumn or early next year then? :)

Early days, but the Conservatives are now hitting their level of support in 2010, and will probably offset losses to Labour and UKIP with gains from the Lib Dems. So, I think a Conservative minority government is looking likely.

[Lummel]

Early days, but the Conservatives are now hitting their level of support in 2010, and will probably offset losses to Labour and UKIP with gains from the Lib Dems. So, I think a Conservative minority government is looking likely.

That I think is a possible scenario only if the opposition comes out extremely fragmented - for the Tories to come out of the election with the same number of seats they had in 2010 would be an incredible achievement.

If they were to come out of May 7th with 310ish seats then as recent negotiations with the Northern Ireland executive showed, they could gain the support of the Northern Irish MPs with an extra billion or two of funding for Stormont and could be enough for them to be able to pass budgets and keep an administration going. Every seat less than 310 the more difficult that scenario becomes particularly since the party they are most likely to gain seats from are the Liberal Democrats who are their most likely allies (assuming the Orange book liberals aren't completely wiped off the map).

A Conservative minority or Labour minority is I think the scenario which will most likely lead to a second election, each hoping for an upward drift in the economy and no new crisis to allow them to win a modest working majority by going to the country again. :dunno:

[SeanF]

That I think is a possible scenario only if the opposition comes out extremely fragmented - for the Tories to come out of the election with the same number of seats they had in 2010 would be an incredible achievement.

If they were to come out of May 7th with 310ish seats then as recent negotiations with the Northern Ireland executive showed, they could gain the support of the Northern Irish MPs with an extra billion or two of funding for Stormont and could be enough for them to be able to pass budgets and keep an administration going. Every seat less than 310 the more difficult that scenario becomes particularly since the party they are most likely to gain seats from are the Liberal Democrats who are their most likely allies (assuming the Orange book liberals aren't completely wiped off the map).

A Conservative minority or Labour minority is I think the scenario which will most likely lead to a second election, each hoping for an upward drift in the economy and no new crisis to allow them to win a modest working majority by going to the country again. :dunno:

There are handy calculators on UK Polling Report and Martin Baxter's Electoral calculus where you can put in poll numbers and come up with projected seat numbers. If the result is something like Con 36 Lab 34 or Con 37 Lab 35, then Lib Dem 8 and UKIP 12, both Conservatives and Labour finish above 300, assuming a uniform swing.

But, then you need to take into account Scotland, where Labour could drop 25-30 seats; the Lib Dems' ability to outperform where they have incumbent MP's; UKIP at least holding their two seats, and probably adding 2-3 more; and a tendency for newly-elected MP's from 2010 (mostly Conservative) to establish a small personal vote, in place of the former incumbent.

[VarysTheSpider]

I thought Cameron and Miliband did a good job, Cameron in particular was much better. I was quite unimpressed with Clegg. On the one hand you've got Cameron talking about how well everything's going, Miliband talking about how awful things are, and Clegg caught in the middle with a few policies but no narrative.

Natalie Bennett really blew it. I rarely agree with anything Caroline Lucas says, but I've always found her engaging and able to convey a sense she actually knows what she's talking about. Bennett always seems so nervous and with no grasp of detail.

Other highlights I enjoyed were the name "Jonny Tudor", the heckler who felt "emotionally moved" to intervene, and that one audience member's fantastic moustache.

[MinDonner]

Farage sounded like that annoying bloke in the pub who you can't even have an argument with because he's so loudly and smugly convinced of his own opinions that he won't even listen to anyone else. Small mercies, thank fuck Jeremy Clarkson isn't in politics I suppose.

[Horza]

Yet.

[Pebble thats Stubby]

Min, please don't give me nightmares.

Although it may make PMQ's far more confrontational.

[Alex.]

wow. I just agreed with Nigel.

but only on one part of what he just said.

Lets have a brown field building revelation.

(although we will still need to build on some green as well)

Didn't watch it but yes 100% this. Regardless of who it's from this needs to happen.

[Alex.]

voters influenced by debates are the worst kind of fickleness

Personally I think voters/people who just spout the same viewpoints over and over without recourse to facts, logic, or reason are the most annoying and probably dangerous. But that's just me.

Eta: also weird right wing idealogues who seem to lack any sort of empathy or concern for others are also worse than people influenced by telly debates

[polishgenius]

It'd be interesting to see Jeremy Clarkson in politics. For one, he'd have to drop the clown act and show his actual opinions, which from reading his columns and suchlike are generally a lot more nuanced than has recently been made out. For seconds, he'd talk rings around most of them.

For thirds, and related to both of the previous two, Clarkson appeals to a lot of the same people who Nigel Farage aims at, but isn't mindlessly anti-immigrant, so if he genuinely got involved in the conversation he could be a lot more effective in defusing Farage's scaremongering tactics than any of his actual opponents.

Yes, I did just suggest that Jeremy Clarkson could have a positive effect on the political discourse of this country.

[DJDonegal]

Nicola Sturgeon is the one that is impressing me the most to be honest.

I don't think there was any clear winner, which is understandable when there are 7 people on the stage. Having said that, I went into the debate saying 'blah blah blah' every time Sturgeon and Wood spoke since I can't vote for them (and I still fail to understand why they were included in a national debate) but ended being mildly impressed by Sturgeon. Impressed enough that I was jealous of the Scots having a genuine alternative to Labour and Conservatives.

Wood is just so provincial. At least Sturgeon is trying hard to make her points more widely applicable than just what will directly affect funding for xyz in her own nation.

Probably because Sturgeon knows the SNP influence is going to be so large that they will no longer be able to avoid getting involved in national politics. Wood, though, showed exactly why I thought neither should have been involved in the first place. I felt this particularly on the NHS question, which was highlighted as being a devolved power, and still they got to speak on the Westminster element that covers England only.

So, what's the betting on a second election in the autumn or early next year then? :)

The way things are looking, I can't see another outcome. Someone will stumble along with a minority government and end up having to call another election. That will either lead to the final fracturing of UK politics (and hopefully a change in the electoral process away from FPTP) or the major parties will succeed in convincing people the only way to form a stable Government is to vote for one of them.

I think in the election after May 2015 (whether that's 2016 or 2020) will be where UKIP thrive or die. Regardless of how many seats they get, they are set to be second in a helluva lot of seats, and that's the base they should be able to drive from if their support is serious.

There are handy calculators on UK Polling Report and Martin Baxter's Electoral calculus where you can put in poll numbers and come up with projected seat numbers. If the result is something like Con 36 Lab 34 or Con 37 Lab 35, then Lib Dem 8 and UKIP 12, both Conservatives and Labour finish above 300, assuming a uniform swing.

But, then you need to take into account Scotland, where Labour could drop 25-30 seats; the Lib Dems' ability to outperform where they have incumbent MP's; UKIP at least holding their two seats, and probably adding 2-3 more; and a tendency for newly-elected MP's from 2010 (mostly Conservative) to establish a small personal vote, in place of the former incumbent.

I think the problem with projections such as those on those websites is that they are based on uniform swings and that's exactly what we won't be getting in May. Lib Dems are bleeding to everyone, Labour are bleeding to Greens, SNP and UKIP with Tories also bleeding to UKIP. There are votes moving all over the place.

Natalie Bennett really blew it. I rarely agree with anything Caroline Lucas says, but I've always found her engaging and able to convey a sense she actually knows what she's talking about. Bennett always seems so nervous and with no grasp of detail.

I think that Bennett needs to avoid what she was doing a lot last night, "I agree with Nicola/Leanne". She even shouted out when Milibland and Sturgeon were getting into it that she thinks Sturgeon is absolutely right, rather than offering her own parties points. It made me think... what's the point of the Greens if they can find someone else to support all their policies?

She wasn't helped by the fact that a lot of the Greens stronger policies didn't come up such as their stance on fracking (especially considering the main 3 ultimately support it, with all the usual caveats).