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New TWOW chapter - timeline implications [spoilers]


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Yeah, news of Cersei's arrest would be quick. I could see it taking longer for news of Aegon's landing to make it to the Vale, because King's Landing doesn't want to advertise the arrival of another pretender and Jon Connington would want to prioritize communication with potential allies like Doran Martell.

While all of this is obviously plot-convenient, when Connington and co. take Griffin's Roost and Haldon sorts through the maester's records, it gives the impression that there's a lively inter-castle exchange of information, including with the Citadel itself directly. It seems like an outright invasion of the Stormlands by a Targaryen pretender is something that would quick spread throughout the entire raven network.

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The timeline revolves around Kettleback and it is somewhat hard to guage. I think Sansa has a lot of cathching up to do to where we are with the incident at the wall with Jon which seems to be the latest the entire saga is at this point.

I am not sure about that. Kevan's murder could be later. There was no white raven at the Wall. Of course it takes longer for a raven to reach the North and maybe it died. Though on the other hand Tycho mentions ice on canals and Arya doesn't mention it. Only thing we know for sure is that Mercy happens some time after ADwD epilogue and it doesn't seem Arya heard about attack on Jon yet.

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While all of this is obviously plot-convenient, when Connington and co. take Griffin's Roost and Haldon sorts through the maester's records, it gives the impression that there's a lively inter-castle exchange of information, including with the Citadel itself directly. It seems like an outright invasion of the Stormlands by a Targaryen pretender is something that would quick spread throughout the entire raven network.

In general, that might be the case. But I just checked the last Jon Connington chapter and the epilogue, and I think there's reason to think that news wouldn't have spread so fast with regards to Aegon's arrival. If you remember, Jon Connington was pushing a cover story that he had hired a few sellswords to get his lands back, in order to prevent King's Landing from intervening until he had taken Storm's End. And in the epilogue, the council base a lot of their information on rumor and Qyburn's spies, including the fact that this is the Golden Company and they claim to be fighting on behalf of Aegon Targaryen.

So it might be that what reached LF by raven is news of an exiled stormlord raising a local rebellion for a minor seat, and only later did the rumor mill reach Gulltown that this was Aegon Targaryen.and his army making a bid for the throne. Alternatively, some one might have passed along the rumor by raven, but Oswell came back in a hurry because he had a solid source (say, a sailor from Volantis who saw the Golden Company depart).

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I think SR's hair is the most objective clue we have. Taken together with Sansa's complete sense of familiarity, and the need to quickly catch up with Arya and Jon's timelines, I'd give a guess of about 6 months too. The tournament also needs time to organise, the betrothal to Harry has been arranged and is almost reaching fruition. Six months takes a chunk out of the Vale timeline without us missing much in terms of actual plot events.


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I am not sure about that. Kevan's murder could be later. There was no white raven at the Wall. Of course it takes longer for a raven to reach the North and maybe it died. Though on the other hand Tycho mentions ice on canals and Arya doesn't mention it. Only thing we know for sure is that Mercy happens some time after ADwD epilogue and it doesn't seem Arya heard about attack on Jon yet.

I think GRRM had to cut ADWD as all of these chapters we have received are the ones he wanted to include in ADWD but could not fit it in and his publishers made him stop.

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I think GRRM had to cut ADWD as all of these chapters we have received are the ones he wanted to include in ADWD but could not fit it in and his publishers made him stop.

Hmm it does read like a final chapter, rather than a first. He could have ended Sansa's arc in Feast with this - it would have lined up great with Cersei's story (we could see Cersei arrested in one chapter, and Oswell arrive with the news in the Vale in the following Sansa chapter).

The ending is pretty grand as well, with a sense of excitement/possibility about hugely important events about to unfold.

I guess it would have been perfect as Sansa's single chapter in ADWD. It could indicate that some time has passed, then her next chapter in TWOW could let some more time pass, so that by the time she's kicking off the next part of her story, her maturing feels less rushed.

As it is now, if you read the final Alayne chapter in Feast and this new one, I wonder if it's a believable transformation for her, over the course of a few months (6 months at most)?

One possible explanation for this "maturation": Sansa specifically thinks how much she loves it there, and how she's happier than she's been since... After her imprisonment in KL and all the f'ed up shit up at the Eyre, this is understandably a huge deal for her. Being in such a completely different position (she's the big man's "daughter", she has a cool friend, no one's having her beaten or worse) does seem to have taken away some of her sadness/gloominess, which in turn allows her to be more confident. And she did spend a couple of years at court (after a serious education by her septa and her mother), so presumably she's picked up a lot of fancy conversation skills, including courtly flirting. This confidence may also be part of the "real" Sansa, that had been hidden under layers of lady-training - so it's not so much a sudden change in character as it is another step in undoing that damage.

But still, it would have been way more believable with a 5 year gap.

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I suspect that GRRM will say 3-6 months roughly. Just to put a guess on it. The prep for a tournament, ordering foods from Dorne etc and transport. Gives time for our little wolf Sansa to mature for a more sexually flirtatious role and obviously bonding with little SweetRobin. That will not end well. Obviously she has become everything to him. I hope Sansa does not kill him but it reminds me of other characters in books and movies, they are groomed by a manipulator and at the key moment, to make them into the final product, they have do something so traumatic and compromising to their natural character, it breaks them. That is for another thread though.


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ordering foods from Dorne etc and transport.

None of the food at the feast was ordered from Dorne. Sansa just said that he had ordered more food from Dorne to replace all the lemons they'd used from the Vale.

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None of the food at the feast was ordered from Dorne. Sansa just said that he had ordered more food from Dorne to replace all the lemons they'd used from the Vale.

They better get it soon then. So 3-4 months may be pushing it. 3 months max?

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It's Sansa's maturation that's the biggest obstacle to a very short timeframe.

But as I said above, it's made clear how much happier she is at the Gates, so perhaps if we think of her being very withdrawn during the last couple of years, then this is a period of rapid growth for her. So perhaps she's just been picking up Randa's tricks with guys.

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I suspect that GRRM will say 3-6 months roughly. Just to put a guess on it. The prep for a tournament, ordering foods from Dorne etc and transport. Gives time for our little wolf Sansa to mature for a more sexually flirtatious role and obviously bonding with little SweetRobin. That will not end well. Obviously she has become everything to him. I hope Sansa does not kill him but it reminds me of other characters in books and movies, they are groomed by a manipulator and at the key moment, to make them into the final product, they have do something so traumatic and compromising to their natural character, it breaks them. That is for another thread though.

There's been a lot of discussion about Sansa going "dark" but I've come to see that this would be very one-dimensional and too simplistic for these books.

Sansa is underestimated and dismissed by virtually everyone she comes across. Even LF thinks that she's a very pretty blank slate for him to imprint himself on (ew), thinking that with Cat's looks, and LF's wits, she'll have it made. He forgets Ned of course, and Sansa later consciously thinks to herself that she is Ned and Cat's daughter, not LF's, that she is the blood of Winterfell etc.

LF has seriously underestimated Sansa and her strength of character, because he thinks of her as Cat's daughter; and at worst, he's convinced himself that she's the daughter him and Cat would have had. The romantic interest (transferred onto Sansa from the now permanently unavailable Cat) not only adds grossness, but also explains why LF is being so blind to who Sansa really is. He is deceiving himself, because by making her into Alayne, it's like he's become comfortable in the fact that there is no Stark in Sansa.

In all his schemes, I bet that his ability to see things exactly as they are was what put him ahead of the pack. The Sansa factor is messing with that, and it will be LF's (not Sansa's) undoing.

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You know I think George really needs to draw some of these story lines out more so that the character development seems more natural and believable.

Haha. No. I kid, I kid. Please do not stab me.

Well initially Sansa's sojourn in the Vale was meant to last for 5 years presumably. This is when GRRM planned a five year gap between the 3rd and the 4th books. So the original idea was clearly to have an 18yo Sansa, having matured "into a woman far more beautiful than I" (as Cat said), with years of intrigue training by LF.

Imagine the havoc she'd cause.

But by dumping the gap, we now have a still 13-14yo Sansa, which is disconcerting. So it's almost like by dropping the gap, he's having to draw her timeline out as much as possible, to buy her at least some time to develop believably.

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I think GRRM had to cut ADWD as all of these chapters we have received are the ones he wanted to include in ADWD but could not fit it in and his publishers made him stop.

Some of ASoS chapters happens after some of AFfC chapters IIRC. So this doesn't mean that much for in story timeline.

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Well organized. I think it reads like at least a second chapter for her. So, I guess they'll be some more catching up to do. Its possible LF does know about some of the things we do, and has hidden them from Sansa.

Would he have been able to keep them from Myranda, though? And Randa surely would have gossiped with Alayne.

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Cersei's arrest might not have become broadcasted via raven network immediately. Pycelle had every reason to try to delay the dissemination of the news to non-Lannisters, nor is there any reason why other people in KL with a somewhat ready access to maesters and ravens would have wanted to inform the Vale, of all places, ASAP.

So, it makes sense, IMHO, that the tidings would have come by boat, hence Oswell's appearance from Gulltown on a lathered horse - not only were Marg's and Cersei's arrests by the Faith momentous news, but his son Osney has also been arrested.

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Cersei's arrest might not have become broadcasted via raven network immediately. Pycelle had every reason to try to delay the dissemination of the news to non-Lannisters, nor is there any reason why other people in KL with a somewhat ready access to maesters and ravens would have wanted to inform the Vale, of all places, ASAP.

So, it makes sense, IMHO, that the tidings would have come by boat, hence Oswell's appearance from Gulltown on a lathered horse - not only were Marg's and Cersei's arrests by the Faith momentous news, but his son Osney has also been arrested.

Just consider for the moment: the Queen Regent, Lady of Casterly Rock and head of House Lannister is arrested by the Faith for treason, incest, murder... In Feast, LF specifically says that he expected Cersei to beggar the realm, but not this fast, suggesting he is up to speed with events, and more importantly that even though he's in the Vale, he would have spies everywhere to keep an eye on Cersei. He might never have relied on Pycelle to keep him up to speed, given Pycelle's loyalties. That we know of only Pycelle's ravens in KL does not mean they are the only ones around- especially considering that a raven may have been sent from a friendly nearby castle as well.

Also, the High Sparrow would want this known far and wide - the arrest of the hugely unpopular Cersei is a huge boon for him and his movement, particularly with the Kingslanders (remember the vitriol directed at her during the bread riots? That's not forgotten).

And finally, on Pycelle and what he might have done when Cersei was arrested. Remember, everyone thinks of LF as a very useful, quite harmless man, who has apparently been just as loyal to the Lannisters as Pycelle himself. Now, Pycelle is panicking at Cersei's arrest and reaches out to Kevan, as the senior Lannister male of course. But is it not entirely possible Pycelle would have notified LF immediately as well, to ensure the Vale's support? After all, LF is seen as "harmless" and was sent to the Vale specifically to keep it on side; why keep him in the dark now, when the Vale could be crucial in maintaining Lannister power?

Pycelle knows he needs to get the Tyrells on side as well, because Cersei got Margaery arrested; but the Tyrells come with an army - which Lannisters in KL do not have. The nearest "friendly" force is the Vale, so keeping LF out of the loop seems downright dangerous.

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This is the thread about the attempts at a comprehensive timeline


http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/84563-most-precise-asoiaf-timeline-in-existence/


And this the timeline


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aj_uNZmcJaTddG9BVU5tRnJJTE5KcE5JRkFha1ZfNUE#gid=8



  • According to this, Sansa descended from the Eyre on 5/14 (the year 300 AC of course)
  • Cersei sends Osney to "confess" to the High Sparrow the day after, and gets arrested on 5/17, three days after Sansa reaches the gates of the Moon
  • Jeyne's wedding to Ramsay is on 5/25. Then again, blizzards and wars might prevent the news to be divulged away from most places
  • The Walk of Shame is in on 6/12, almost a month after Sansa makes it to the Gates of the Moon
  • Kevan dies on 6/17
  • The last event in the timeline is 8/2 - Jon's assassination (attempt?)


Now, that timeline is sketchy at best, as GRRM doesn't want to be constricted by strict timelines. But the Vale can't be that far behind the news. For this tournament to be consistent with the rest of Westeros, it shouldn't be more than 2-3 months after the descend from the Eyre, which would put it, at best by mid August (or whatever the Westerosi call their months). Kevan's death and Cersei's Walk of Shame should be common knowledge in the Vale by now. If Cersei is still, somehow, in power after this (as the Mercy chapter seems to indicate) Sansa might still think about Cersei without thinking about the WoS.



It's also possible that the timeline is wrong about the date of Sansa's descend from the Eyre and it happened sooner. The previous Sansa chapters are


Nestor Royce at the Eyre, regarding Lysa's death, all the way back to 2/16


The Lords Declarant, on 3/23



However, since Jaime supposedly took Riverrun on 5/10 and Myranda knows Riverrun has fallen, the descend from the Eyre can't be sooner unless the timeline is also wrong regarding Jaime, but don't Jaime chapters have better information about the passage of time?



Overall, I'm not sure these events will fit coherently with the rest of Westeros.


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Nice OP and Landed Night's observations are well-taken as are Lord_Pepsi_Cupps.



But I do think Sansa has been developing for some time, most people just don't give her enough credit previously. Especially on the gutsier stuff, she's had that for a while (thinking of pushing Joff over the edge, speaking up for Ser Dontos, helping Tyrion at the purple wedding). She even got fairly good at manipulating Joff, or at least recognizing when he could be manipulated. And she's been good with manipulating SweetRobin for a while. And her behavior during Stannis' siege was queenly.



Developing sexaully has been happening for a while now as well. Frank discussions with Cersei. The marriage with Tyrion. Joff's advances. Thinking of kissing the Hound. Her knowledge of how LF may view her. Granted, the timeline has been condensed from the original plan, but the seeds have been there for a while.

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