Did the North *ever* stand a chance?

[Stannatic]

The more I think about it, the more I think that while valiant Robb's war was doomed from the get go in the shades of the American civil war or Operation Barbarossa. And like the Confederates and the Germans in those conflicts Robb was able to win a few major tactical battles in the beginning but he was screwed in the strategic sense from...well, it's hard for me to pinpoint. It was obviously a combination of things.

1)Trusting Theon. While I can't fault Robb for not being able to see the future and know the Greyjoy's were going to stab him in the back, perhaps he could have phrased his offer better?

2)Thumbing his nose at the Freys. This was a big one but I don't think it *quite* broke the back of the north in the long run.

3)Beheading Karstark. Again Robb lets his sense of honor override sound strategic advice and instead of keeping Rickard hostage he beheaded him and lost his houses support when his cause was hanging by a thread.

4)The whole debacle with the stone mill. But I think Robb assumed too much here, too. If Stannis had been successful in capturing King's Landing nothing says the rest of the realm would declare for him. Furthermore, if it did, did Robb really assume someone like Stannis was going to let him continue with his little separatist movement?

I'm of the opinion that *perhaps* the North could have survived one of those things, but not all of them. And even then they have year or so at most before everything comes crashing down. What says everyone else?

[Nihlus]

1. Robb was only trusting that Balon not be completely and illogically retarded. He was also trusting the guys he left in charge back in the North would also not be completely and illogically retarded. It's understandable why he would think that.

2.- 3. Yep. Though this doesn't relate to whether or not the North stood a chance to begin with.

4. Edmure was the only sane man in that room. There is literally no circumstance where letting Tywin into the Westerlands is better than what Edmure did, i.e. kick Tywin's ass and force him back despite being outnumbered. If Tywin marches off to attack Stannis, GREAT! Stannis outnumbers Tywin, has better soldiers, and is a better commander. He'll smash Tywin's host in a great victory at no cost to Robb, then finish the King's Landing host and end the war. Furthermore, per Edmure's own words, Robb never even told him about this supposed plan. I think Robb and Blackfish just made the whole thing up to guilt Edmure into marrying Roslin. There's no way that they truly think that Tywin's 15,000 men defeated Stannis's 21,000, while the 50,000 Tyrell troops, perfect timing, and "ghost" did nothing.

I think that, overall, Robb was the clear favorite. He had the support of two kingdoms vs Tywin's one, and had more competent commanders. He only lost due to the above blunders, and the Tyrells joining the war (and they only joined because of several contrived coincidences keeping Stannis from winning at the Blackwater). The North/Riverlands was the Soviet Union in this situation, not the Westerlands. They got caught off guard initially and were mismanaged into some curb-stomp defeats, but eventually came back and started pounding their enemy as their superior resources and numbers began to tell, until they were invading the enemy's homeland and sacking everything in their path.

[RainGhost]

Yes. The north was winning and it actually took a lot of things going wrong at the same time to change the situation. The two major blows to the North were the loss of Winterfell and Bran and Rickon, and Stannis losing on the Blackwater. As to the points the OP makes:

1. There's no way Robb could have foreseen Theon taking Winterfell because that was a huge betrayal but letting Theon go was never a good idea. He let his feelings for Theon cloud his judgement.

2. Robb's marriage to Jeyne was a direct result of Theon's actions, so see above.

3. Robb had no choice but to behead Karstark. The Karstark betrayal was caused by Cat releasing Jaime, which was in response to Theon's actions, so see above.

4. The Battle of the Red Fork was a result of a lack of institution building in the new Kingdom and Robb and Brynden underestimating Edmure. By itself it's not a disaster but when you combine it with Stannis's actions...

Renly's death was also a huge blow to the north. As I said, it was a mixture of a lot of things suddenly going against them at once and the knock on effects of everything.

[joluoto2]

Had the Vale joined, the Iron islands not attacked and the Freys not stabbed him in the back, Robb would have been in a good position. However as it turned out: no.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Oh yes.

He's winning, or hadn't you noticed? - Tyrion Lannister, after the Battle of the Camps.

Robb had basically the alliance that won Robert's Rebellion on generation earlier, just switch the Stormlands with the Ironborn. And this time, the regions weren't divided in their loyalty. Based on that, Robb was the biggest force on the entire continent.

Of course two mad people fucked that up.

Even then, Robb was winning, right up until the Battle of the Blackwater. Afterwards, he still had a decent chance to save everything and the North was secure in any case.

It took a constant stream of every single chance going for House Lannister for about 2,000 pages to change that.

[Leonardo]

Oh yes.

He's winning, or hadn't you noticed? - Tyrion Lannister, after the Battle of the Camps.

Robb had basically the alliance that won Robert's Rebellion on generation earlier, just switch the Stormlands with the Ironborn. And this time, the regions weren't divided in their loyalty. Based on that, Robb was the biggest force on the entire continent.

Of course two mad people fucked that up.

Even then, Robb was winning, right up until the Battle of the Blackwater. Afterwards, he still had a decent chance to save everything and the North was secure in any case.

It took a constant stream of every single chance going for House Lannister for about 2,000 pages to change that.

This is what hurts lol.

The war was basically won at this point as BBE points out - Robb holds the heir to the iron isles, and is nephew/cousin to two of the other lords paramount, his mother also sister to one and his aunt mother of the other. This war was basically open and shut, the Lannisters overplayed and were done for, without any allies. Even if Renly wins he has no way to subdue the North or Vale, he can only attack their allies. If Stannis wins he is in even worse shape.

[Olligarchy]

No. The North never stood a chance.

Mostly because they never had the awesomness that was Tywin Lannister on their side!

[SomeFremen]

The north had a chance but bad decisions were made and stragegies were very short sighted.

A smarter Robb that would have:

- respected his word by not marrying (and not even looking for great beauties on the battlefield, just look the other way you horny child ! )

- not trusting Theon, but sending Balon Greyjoy an aliance treaty with the promise of returning his son and other goods (maybe all conquered lands to go to the Iron Born, since the North did not desire conqueror status)

- not putting the Karstark's son as guard to the Kingslayer (he actually put him to guard Jamie...)

This smarter Robb that I'm talking about would have avoided all forseeable problems and had a better chance to wipe out the Lannisters. He had advisors, but not great ones...and he knew that, which is why he didn't listen to them like he should have

[Eddard Scissorhands]

No. The North never stood a chance.

Mostly because they never had the awesomness that was Tywin Lannister on their side!

Boo :p

[thelittledragonthatcould]

This smarter Robb that I'm talking about would have avoided all forseeable problems and had a better chance to wipe out the Lannisters. He had advisors, but not great ones...and he knew that, which is why he didn't listen to them like he should have

Cat advised him not to send Theon and he ignored her. Edmure advised him not to kill Karstark and he ignored him. A few Lords advised him to join Renly or Stannis yet he went with the Greatjons advise and declared himself King.

I cant imagine that the Blackfish did not give any wise council and the Jeyne Westerling marriage was something he decided all on his own.

He had plenty of good advisers, including a magical Wolf that allowed him the drop on a Lannister army.

[ummester]

Robb was green and wasn't prepared to win by hook or by crook. Tywin was.

[Yukle]

The North was always in a very good position - it was also attempting to hold the Riverlands that was Robb's difficulty. He allowed many of the Tully's banner men to return to their keeps in order to defend them. Caitlin pointed out that this was playing into Tywin's hands, who was hoping to fracture Robb's extremely successful forces into smaller, more vulnerable, pieces.

Robb's lack of foresight in allowing Theon to return to Balon wasn't so foolish. He surrendered a valuable hostage, which was a mistake, but there was no reason to assume that Balon would raid the North. After all, for all of Balon's supposed planning, he had no long term solution of how to hold the North. It was, at best, a hit and run strategy. As soon as the bulk his forces withdrew (which he would always have needed to do, since no army can stay deployed indefinitely), Stannis' severely weakened forces were able to utterly rout the Ironborn from their strongholds.

In fact, Robb should've been more worried that the Ironborn would come through the Riverlands. After all, it was its huge network of rivers that allowed them to so successfully rule the area until Aegon's arrival.

Had the Riverlands sued for peace with the Iron Throne and allowed the North to secede (keeping the Trident bound to the Iron Throne themselves, with strict and favourable terms), there's not much anyone could've done. The very cautious Freys would certainly have loved this plan, since it would strengthen their position. It'd make them the main means of trade between the North and the South, and they could comfortable play each off the other for favourable taxation terms to use their crossing.

Beheading Karstark was a no-win situation for Robb. The North culturally despises the breaking of guest right and other traditions. Karstark's decision to kill young boys effectively ruined Robb's cause (though not on its own, of course). However, on its own it wasn't so bad to lose the Karstark's forces, rather it was the further loss of the Freys, too.

It took many things going wrong for Robb to make the North's cause come unstuck. No other side has seen so much bad luck; after all the Free Folk are also attacking the Wall at this point, too. Winter will hit the North harder than any other area.

There is one thing still playing in the North's favour, though: not all of its armies are deployed. As Jon pointed out to Stannis, it takes a very long time to muster the North's forces. Stannis rallied the Mountain clans to his cause but even then, Torrhen Stark went south with 30,000 men. Even assuming there was no population increase during 300 years of Targaryen rule, Robb went south with just 18,000 (later reinforced to 20,000 after White Harbour offered its strength). Robb did a lot with the forces he could muster in a short space of time, and it was probably a better idea to return North with the Riverlands demanding a separate peace (despite his protests to Catelyn this would make him look weak - Winter was very close and history would hardly be unfair to him for taking this into account). At the very least, he should never have released Theon. That was his single greatest mistake.

[~~~~~~~~~~~~~]

Yes. The north was winning and it actually took a lot of things going wrong at the same time to change the situation. The two major blows to the North were the loss of Winterfell and Bran and Rickon, and Stannis losing on the Blackwater. As to the points the OP makes:

1. There's no way Robb could have foreseen Theon taking Winterfell because that was a huge betrayal but letting Theon go was never a good idea. He let his feelings for Theon cloud his judgement.

2. Robb's marriage to Jeyne was a direct result of Theon's actions, so see above.

3. Robb had no choice but to behead Karstark. The Karstark betrayal was caused by Cat releasing Jaime, which was in response to Theon's actions, so see above.

4. The Battle of the Red Fork was a result of a lack of institution building in the new Kingdom and Robb and Brynden underestimating Edmure. By itself it's not a disaster but when you combine it with Stannis's actions...

Renly's death was also a huge blow to the north. As I said, it was a mixture of a lot of things suddenly going against them at once and the knock on effects of everything.

Eddard's death was a big loss to the North too.

[~~~~~~~~~~~~~]

No. The North never stood a chance.

Mostly because they never had the awesomness that was Tywin Lannister on their side!

The war isn't over yet, and Tywin is DEAD. As prophecy predicted, Tyrion's birth would be his downfall.

[Jankmaster]

Never, the author wasn't on their side so the major defeat of the North in the Early-mid war was inevitable. But really events really conspired to screw over a pretty advantageous situation the north had at the beginning.

[Make Shadowbabies Not War]

By the time of the Blackwater, Robb was winning. Basically,it took everything that could go wrong to go wrong for Robb to lose that war. All he had to do was hope that Renly didn't get killed by a magical shadowbaby assassin, Stannis wouldn't then fuck up at the Blackwater, Balon wouldn't attack the only other faction seceding from the crown, Theon wouldn't then kill his former foster brothers, and ensure that if this did happen he and Catelyn wouldn't both do something to completely fuck up the war effort in their grief.

It took all of this to turn the tides from a point where, as both Tywin and Tyrion noted, he was winning the war. Had maybe just one or two of these breaks gone his way, Robb could very well have the war.

[messem]

Balon wouldn't attack the only other faction seceding from the crown,

..., Robb could very well have the war.

All of that and Robb had the reasonable expectation the Vale would join on their side.

[Lord Cadwan]

If Robb had been content to be King of the North he would have won the war-no southern army could get past Moat Cailin. It was attempting to be king of and hold the Riverlands that killed him.

[Balerion the kitten]

Cat advised him not to send Theon and he ignored her. Edmure advised him not to kill Karstark and he ignored him. A few Lords advised him to join Renly or Stannis yet he went with the Greatjons advise and declared himself King.

Maybe I'm remembering this wrong, but some of the Lord's were fighting over who they should fight for and that's when greatjon said his little king in the north speech. After that those Lord's stopped their argument and declared Robb king.

But back onto the topic, when he went north he stood a very good chance. He had numerous alliances that he could make (riverlands, iron islands) were as the lannisters had none. They had just lost the stormlands, since renly and stannis were both declaring themselves king. They had lost highgarden, as highgarden declared for renly (although you could argue whether they had them at all before Blackwater bay). In no shape or form did they have the Martell's support. The vale wasn't a banner the could call, as lysa had run away from KL with her son to get away from the lannisters (or that's what they thought). The lannisters were fighting by themselves, before tywin came in and saved the day this question should have been did the Lannisters ever stand a chance

[joluoto2]

If Robb had been content to be King of the North he would have won the war-no southern army could get past Moat Cailin. It was attempting to be king of and hold the Riverlands that killed him.

Considering saving the Riverlands was half the Casus Belli (the other half was saving Ned and his sisters) I don't think that strategy ever existed. If your aims are to save people captured in King's Landing and save the homeland of your mother from an invasion, you get neither by staying on the defensive.