Did the North *ever* stand a chance?

[pigpiginsunspear]

Chance at what is the question. Sacking King's Landing? Becoming king of the seven kingdoms? Killing Joeffrey? Probably not.

All he had to do was keep his oath to the Freys. Once the Tyrell's entered the mix, he should have retreated North, set his house in order, and ruled as King in the North. Would take a serious invading army to conquer the vast North.

He would have had options then... Get the Vale into the mix, ally with Stannis, enlist the wildlings, endless...

All impossible with a wolf's head sewn atop his shoulders.

[Ramsay Gimp]

Roose only had around 10,000 at the beginning of Clash, he started off with between 17,700 and 16,200 when he left the Twins, so best case scenario Roose lost just under 6,000, worst he lost nearly 8,000.

The fact that no one ever questions Roose continuing to command the infantry is a bit of a plot weakness, as even Ran has admitted.

GRRM has famously told his fans to "put away the ruler and stopwatch and enjoy the story." So while I respect your attention to detail, I honestly think you may be putting numbers above narrative here. The fact that everyone basically shurgs off the Green Fork suggests that it wasn't all that significant for the outcome of the war

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

Again, I don't think Roose actually sent those men to Duskendale. That doesn't match what we see later. Not only because of that 1,000 Karstarks comment, but because there are Karstark soldiers at the Red Wedding.

Are we? Where? And if we are, are those actually said to be Frey men specifically?

Not really. Again, the Freys clearly have more than three thousand men in the following books, which would be impossible of they lost so many men during the war.

I don't buy the explanation given in the OP. In particular the comment suggesting that a force where 1/4 are veteran mounted knights is considered weak and expendable.

Roose's statements to Jaime and Robb regarding the Karstarks are impossible to reconcile with each other, I guess that a few Karstarks made it back from Duskendale and joined with Roose, and that his statement regarding 1,000 west of Harrenhal is bullshit.

ASOS Tyrion VIII "Ser Ryman was leading 2,000 spears down from the Twins to [besiege Riverrun]." So there could be Vyprens or men from other houses we don't know about in there, but Ryman commanded them, so most were Freys.

There are seemingly more than 4,000 Freys after book 3, which means they recruited more or men from other houses are being called Frey men, probably both IMO.

Fair point about sending so many knights, I really don't know what was expected to come of sending those men north, but we also have to question why the Twins is fielding peasants with scythes.

[John Doe]

Maybe they want to have less mouths to feed and expect them to die in the North.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

GRRM has famously told his fans to "put away the ruler and stopwatch and enjoy the story."While I respect your attention to detail, I honestly think you may be putting numbers above narrative here. The fact that everyone basically shurgs off the Green Fork suggests that it wasn't all that significant for the outcome of the war

No, no and no.

First that comment was regarding people calculating travel times and dates and such, him admitting he isn't that great with time and dates, thus we shouldn't read too much into that. The numbers he gives for his armies should be consistant, and by in large they are.

Just because everyone says something or no one says somethings, it doesn't mean it is true or false. In book no one defends the actions of Imry Florent, but as discussed in this thread he did just fine. Characters not knowing/saying certain things says nothing for those ideas being true or false.

[SacredOrderOfGreenMen]

South of the Neck?

Well, no. There's a reason that no King in the North has ever held the land sought the Twins: it's not a defensible region, especially for someone with their seat in Winterfell.

GRRM did some wise world building by having very prominent geographic barriers function as the definers of the political borders of the 7k: the Golden's Tooth, the Neck, the Mountains of the Moon, the Marches of Dorne, and so on.

[Lee-Sensei]

Oh yes.

He's winning, or hadn't you noticed? - Tyrion Lannister, after the Battle of the Camps.

Robb had basically the alliance that won Robert's Rebellion on generation earlier, just switch the Stormlands with the Ironborn. And this time, the regions weren't divided in their loyalty. Based on that, Robb was the biggest force on the entire continent.

Of course two mad people fucked that up.

Even then, Robb was winning, right up until the Battle of the Blackwater. Afterwards, he still had a decent chance to save everything and the North was secure in any case.

It took a constant stream of every single chance going for House Lannister for about 2,000 pages to change that.

No he didn't, because Balon hated the Starks and Lysa wisely chose to stay out of Robbs Rebellion.

[Nihlus]

Roose's statements to Jaime and Robb regarding the Karstarks are impossible to reconcile with each other, I guess that a few Karstarks made it back from Duskendale and joined with Roose, and that his statement regarding 1,000 west of Harrenhal is bullshit.

ASOS Tyrion VIII "Ser Ryman was leading 2,000 spears down from the Twins to [besiege Riverrun]." So there could be Vyprens or men from other houses we don't know about in there, but Ryman commanded them, so most were Freys.

There are seemingly more than 4,000 Freys after book 3, which means they recruited more or men from other houses are being called Frey men, probably both IMO.

Fair point about sending so many knights, I really don't know what was expected to come of sending those men north, but we also have to question why the Twins is fielding peasants with scythes.

That's my point. One of his statements has to be BS. Since Roose has no reason to lie to Jaime, and hiding the non-existence of 1,000 hostile men-at-arms is pretty difficult, I assume that he was telling the truth about the 1,000 Karstarks.

There were definitely other houses involved, then. That was probably referring to all of the Rivermen following Ryman, not just Freys. I read the line, and the men aren't mentioned as being Freys, either, just under the command of a Frey.

If we assume they only took a few losses in the war, there's nothing that can't be reconciled.

Roose inarguably had 9,500 men altogether before Duskendale (well, arguably slightly more). This would mean 10,100 before the Karstark desertions (he lost the Karstarks but gained Glover's garrison). Add the Frey desertions to that (I estimate 2,200, so 13,300 right after Green Fork), and there's nothing wrong with the army only losing 5,000 to Tywin's 1,000 at Green Fork. I'm assuming 17,300 North/Riverlands men at the Green Fork btw. Again, that's still a bad defeat... but not that completely ridiculous.

They were sent north to help Roose put down Stannis (because apparently Roose's host alone outnumbering Stannis 3 to 1 before the Freys and Ramsay wasn't enough?). The presence of 500 knights heavily suggests that this is the majority of house Frey's strength at this point. The other 1,500 soldiers would be crossbowmen, longbowmen, light cavalry, and pikemen. As for the peasants with sharpened sticks: someone has to dig ditches and do other manual labor. They probably only make up 5% of the Frey force. It's the other 95%/1,900 that matters.

[Lee-Sensei]

Please Litteldragon. Take your IhatetheNorth hat off for a moment and just look at the facts.

Tywin's army is separated from the West by Robb's larger army. There is no hope of rescuing the West. Casterly Rock does not have to be taken. Raiding the countryside is sufficient, because Balon's goal is not to conquer the West. Merely to cripple it, allowing Robb to destroy Tywin and rule everything from the Wall to the Trident. There is then no one in the northern half of Westeros left to oppose Balon's wish for independence.

No one other than Robb offered Balon independence. All the other contenders wanted a united realm, which would include the Iron Isles. Balon was batshit crazy. There is no debating that.

EDIT

Balon's only hope for long term independence was a divided Westeros. Because the continuation of the Iron Throne would mean that the Iron Isles would never be allowed to rule themselves in the long term. Going with Robb was the only sane option.

Robb can't offer Balon independence, because it's not his to give.

[RuRo]

http://images6.fanpop.com/image/polls/1368000/1368426_1398532066142_full.jpg

[Lee-Sensei]

Claiming that the North never had a chance is presentism. At the time of the Northern Rebellion this was the strategic situation facing Robb;

40,000 Northmen and Rivermen, split by the Trident.

20,000 Lannisters at Harrenhal, 3-5 at King's Landing, another 10,000 forming up in the Westerlands.

30,000~ Valemen (who by all accounts and in any other world without a manical Littlefinger would have joined with Robb's force after the Battle of the Green Fork and the Battle of the Camps)

5,000+ troops under Stannis' command (negligible)

100,000+ Reachmen/Stormlanders under Renly's command (Neutral at worst, but enemies of the Lannisters, so it works in Robb's favor.

20,000 Ironborn, the heir to the Iron Islands in his control (Again, in another world without a crazy, past-obsessed Balon Greyjoy, this would be in his favor.

Also, an additional 18-20,000 Northmen who haven't been brought down the Neck yet.

So, in a world where Lysa Tully is not insane and in love with Littlefinger (and therefore obeying his commands even when her own knights are begging to join Robb's cause), Robb now has 88,000 potential troops, versus the Lannister's 35,000. And the Lannisters have to split their forces between Robb's and Renly's.

In a world where Balon Greyjoy sees the sense in attacking a virtually unprotected, and vastly richer Westerlands versus the much poorer, much bigger North, Robb has 108,000 troops on his side, versus the Lannister's 35,000. This also put Robb at parity with Renly.

The Hornwood Crisis of course weakens the North, what other Kingdom at the time has an internal crisis of the same importance (Bolton vs. Manderly vs. Umber vs. Hornwood). If that doesn't happen, even if the Ironborn do invade (Which they will because the Greyjoys are dumb), then it's 18,000 Ironborn versus 18-20,000 Northmen, and the Ironborn have long supply lines to anything of substance.

Sending Theon didn't cause the Ironborn Invasion, but it did cause the fall of Winterfell. Without Theon as part of the invasion, the Ironborn stike at a few targets of minor importance, get kicked out, and then Balon falls to his death and his successor does something less dumb.

Also, no one could have seen the death of Renly coming via shadowbaby. That triggers a whole slew of unforseen and unpredictable consequences. And since Catelyn was already present during the death of Renly, there nixes any possible negotiation by Catelyn or other Northmen to secure Margaery's hand and a new alliance.

So in other words, in order for Robb to fail, GRRM had to have

1)Lysa be crazy and unpredictable,

2)Balon be crazy and unpredictable,

3)Renly get shadow-assassinated,

4)Hornwood Crisis divide the North right when the Ironborn start hitting,

5)Rodrick Cassel be lackluster (this one is actually something Robb could have avoided),

6)Theon's capture of Winterfell (Again, could have been avoided),

7)Not marry Jeyne (This one is arguable, the Freys might have betrayed Robb regardless of his marriage pact with them, since Walder Frey's turncoat nature is set up from his first scene, refusing to help out his liege lord), and

8)Roose Bolton not being a traitor from the very start (https://racefortheironthrone.wordpress.com/2014/01/30/chapter-by-chapter-analysis-tyrion-viii/ is a very good synopsis for how obvious it is that Roose pretty much threw the Battle of the Green Fork, setting up his pattern of betraying Robb from the very beginning).

By my count, 5-6 of those reasons for why Robb and the North lost were completely out his control, and only in the control of one person, the very real GRRM. From Robb's point of view, as most of the Northmen, their rebellion was very possible. From the perspective of the author though, they were set up from the beginning to be the story of the tragic young warrior king.

1) Balon hates the Starks. Him being on their side is a stretch.

2) Feelings in the Vale were mixed and Lysa gained nothing from joining Robb.

3) Attacking the North is the smarter thing to do seeing as they have no Fleet worth mentioning.

4) Marg was off the table. She's being saved for a Baratheon.

[Ramsay Gimp]

1) Balon hates the Starks. Him being on their side is a stretch.

IMO, once Robb released Theon the Greyjoys were a total wildcard. Balon has equal reason to hate the Lannisters and Baratheons, but Robb gave up his only leverage against him

[The Frosted King]

Lusaka should have seen that having her family members(even extended) in positions of power bordering her son only makes him more secure.

What did Tywin TRY to do before he died? Shore up the alliance with the Tyrells, so that the entire west/southwestern power bloc was filial.

What does the Bolton care about Robert Arryn, should the mountain clans strongly invade with the arms granted by the Lannisters?

WILL the Freys March for her son?

It was short sighted, but you'd never admit it Lee.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

IMO, once Robb released Theon the Greyjoys were a total wildcard. Balon has equal reason to hate the Lannisters and Baratheons, but Robb gave up his only leverage against him

Agreed.

I think the Westerlands having a navy and a better defended capital played a huge part in it. The Ironborn are basically predators and if you watch any wildlife documentary about a predator you will see that when given the option of prey they will often pick the weaker, smallest which is less likely to fight back. They dont ignore the weak to target the stronger more meatier adults of the pack.

The fact that Balon doubts the Ironborns chances of success against the Westerlands means that any victory is likely to be a pyrrhic one for the Greyjoys as any Westerland or Southern retaliation is going to be hard for them to defend themselves especially with the Navy-less Robb returning home to Winterfell.

[Ramsay Gimp]

Agreed.

I think the Westerlands having a navy and a better defended capital played a huge part in it. The Ironborn are basically predators and if you watch any wildlife documentary about a predator you will see that when given the option of prey they will often pick the weaker, smallest which is less likely to fight back. They dont ignore the weak to target the stronger more meatier adults of the pack.

The fact that Balon doubts the Ironborns chances of success against the Westerlands means that any victory is likely to be a pyrrhic one for the Greyjoys as any Westerland or Southern retaliation is going to be hard for them to defend themselves especially with the Navy-less Robb returning home to Winterfell.

Good point about predators.

Balon pretty much tells us why he chose as he did in his very first chapter - Tywin is too cunning, Casterly Rock too strong, and the Ironborn could never hold Lannisport.

Regarding pyrrhic victory: people forget that Stafford's fairly strong Lannister host was sitting in the Westerlands at this time, but there was no comparable host sitting in the North. The Westerlands would therefore be able to defend themselves and force the Ironborn to fight dearly for any gains, while the Northmen would have to take the time to gather a new host before defending themselves. If Balon had waited until after Oxcross the Westerlands would have been more tempting

[BitsOfBrains]

He had every chance of creating an independent north. The Neck makes that almost a given unless some serious amphibious invasions were launched from the south.

He had a smaller chance of wiping out the Lanisters (that was a goal, right?) since everyone besides the Westermen hate them.

Making a kingdom out of the North and the Riverlands? Not likely. Its just too porous and easily assailed region.

If he had been more clear about his goals, and better decisions, and made more attempts and making alliances with Dorne and the Reach and Renly he could have easily wiped out the Lanisters and kept his title of King in the North,

[Lee-Sensei]

Lusaka should have seen that having her family members(even extended) in positions of power bordering her son only makes him more secure.

What did Tywin TRY to do before he died? Shore up the alliance with the Tyrells, so that the entire west/southwestern power bloc was filial.

What does the Bolton care about Robert Arryn, should the mountain clans strongly invade with the arms granted by the Lannisters?

WILL the Freys March for her son?

It was short sighted, but you'd never admit it Lee.

Why would she need their help? The Arryns haven't made serious enemies and their army is currently the second strongest in Westeros by a significant amount.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

It was short sighted, but you'd never admit it Lee.

In 245 Rahelle Targaryen married Ormund Baratheon. In 281 Robert Baratheon wants all Targaryens dead. 37 years of peace between those families.

How long do you expect marriage alliances to last? They are not a bond that lasts in perpetuity.

Lysa Arryns first concern is her son and his kingdom.

[Ramsay Gimp]

In 245 Rahelle Targaryen married Ormund Baratheon. In 281 Robert Baratheon wants all Targaryens dead. 37 years of peace between those families.

How long do you expect marriage alliances to last? They are not a bond that lasts in perpetuity.

Lysa Arryns first concern is her son and his kingdom.

But then what's the point of alliances?

[Lee-Sensei]

But then what's the point of alliances?

Robb offered nothing and was trying to become a King. Lysa was also forced into the marriage. He didn't really offer Balon either.