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[TWOW Spoilers] Alayne I, v. 3


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LF has a Stark. That is the thing all factions fighting for the North need. He also controls food supplies. He does not need to bring an army anywhere, he just needs to offer Sansa to whichever faction he wants to see win.

The food supply is in the Vale, better to control it from there rather than give the northerners a chance to take him hostage. As for Starks, soon enough Manderly and co will have Rickon. And I doubt Jon will be down for long; he is the Stark to defend the Wall and the north.

I see it like Maia: there is no need (in the books) for Sansa to go north. Plenty of story left where she is now, and there is no lack of Starks in the north (Bran, Rickon and Jon).

Edited by Wouter
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The food supply is in the Vale, better to control it from there rather than give the northerners a chance to take him hostage. As for Starks, soon enough Manderly and co will have Rickon. And I doubt Jon will be down for long; he is the Stark to defend the Wall and the north.

I see it like Maia: there is no need (in the books) for Sansa to go north. Plenty of story left where she is now, and there is no lack of Starks in the north (Bran, Rickon and Jon).

I don't understand what you think the point is of hoarding food just to hoard it.

The point of hoarding food is to use people's desperation to acquire it in order to manipulate the situation to one's advantage.

LF has enough money; what he wants is power. That depends on manipulating the outcome of the Westerosi conflict to his advantage. So of course he will use his food to do that. And the North and Riverlands are the places most in need of food so that is where his manipulation will occur.

Noone is saying he would simply GIVE the food to the North or anyone else. He will use it to make a power play there.

IMO it is silly to believe that LF will be content with simply gaining power in the Vale. He wants far more than that, and the tools he has are a Stark/Tully and food. There is simply no way his intention is to just sit pretty in the Vale and not use the tools he has to accumulate more power.

Sansa may be becoming a great southern political operative but that is irrelevant in the near or mid- term future of the story for understanding LF's moves because she has no claim on anything in the South. If LF married her off to anyone in the South, the point would still be for whoever that person is to believe they will gain a claim to the North and Riverlands. They would not want Sansa just because she is pretty and has good manners. So it is all about her being a Stark/Tully, which means it is about the North.

Edited by Hippocras
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The point of hoarding food is to use people's desperation to acquire it in order to manipulate the situation to one's advantage.

There is a possible aspect to this that I have not seen mentioned. It's not merely that LF understands the law of supply and demand and nobody else does. It's not merely that LF realizes that winter is coming and nobody else does. I presume there are plenty of other merchants in the Vale who realize and understand these things.

I think LF may realize that more war and destruction are coming. Hence, he anticipates reduced supply beyond that which other merchants anticipate.

Edited by ChillyPolly
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I don't understand what you think the point is of hoarding food just to hoard it.

I wrote that LF can control the food supply from the Vale - meaning that he can sell and ship from inside the Vale, it's not like he has to load, transport and unload the grain himself.

I never wrote anything remotely suggesting that he shouldn't be selling the surplus grain.

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I wrote that LF can control the food supply from the Vale - meaning that he can sell and ship from inside the Vale, it's not like he has to load, transport and unload the grain himself.

I never wrote anything remotely suggesting that he shouldn't be selling the surplus grain.

You are saying LF will keep Sansa in the Vale and not use her for a power play in the North.

My point was not he should sell the grain, my point was, he will use it, and Sansa, for a power play, which means taking her North or promising her to someone who needs a Stark to solidify their hold on the North - in other words to Stannis or to the Boltons. Unless someone else shows up who wants to fight for control of the North those are the two contenders.

Sansa has zero claim on the North if she never even goes there. She is not going to deliver the North to some Southerner she marries without ever setting foot there. The power play only works with someone who is actually fighting for control of the North.

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^Why would anyone want to go North right now though? LF was definitely slighted/ insulted more by the Tully's than by the Starks and Sansa's claim to Riverrun and Harrenhall is just as good as her claim on Winterfell. It is even stronger when you consider that Rickon would take Winterfell and cannot rule all 3. With Jeyne Westerling being in the prologue someone, very possibly Edmure is going to bite the dust, that would make the order on Riverrun, Edmure son, Bran, Rickon, Sansa. With Bran north of the wall, and Rickon taking Winterfell, that leaves Riverrun for Sansa, and Harrenhall is for Arya.



In all the time that it will take for things to play out in the Vale, the situation in the North will have changed and Sansa will be much les valuable.


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Yes, LF can also aim for the Riverlands, which is his own turf in many ways. And a war against the Freys would be popular with the Vale knights and with Sansa. And maybe he can arrange to do it under (f)Aegon's or Dany's banner, depending on his timing. He would ingratiate himself with the monarch he supported, while carving out a fief for himself and making himself lord paramount of the Riverlands in truth (maybe ending up marrying Sansa, after Harry dies in battle).

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Yes, LF can also aim for the Riverlands, which is his own turf in many ways. And a war against the Freys would be popular with the Vale knights and with Sansa. And maybe he can arrange to do it under (f)Aegon's or Dany's banner, depending on his timing. He would ingratiate himself with the monarch he supported, while carving out a fief for himself and making himself lord paramount of the Riverlands in truth (maybe ending up marrying Sansa, after Harry dies in battle).

LF may well aim for the Riverlands first I agree. However I would argue that is less likely for the following reasons:

1. He has no cover there to go against whoever controls the Iron Throne. The Riiverlands are devastated precisely because they are vulnerable.

2. He is already officially Lord Paramount there, and the remaining Lords there are supposedly already on the same side. He has noone to make a power play against there and not much to gain from it, for the moment, so long as Tommen or Myrcella is on the Throne. So there would have to be a big shift in power there first before any move at all would make sense.

3. Right now he avoids open conflict by seeming to be on the same side as the powers that be in KL. This means he needs no armies. There is an enemy of those current rulers in the North right now, not the Riverlands. He makes his moves where there is conflict to profit from, whichever side he takes.

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LF may well aim for the Riverlands first I agree. However I would argue that is less likely for the following reasons:

1. He has no cover there to go against whoever controls the Iron Throne. The Riiverlands are devastated precisely because they are vulnerable.

2. He is already officially Lord Paramount there, and the remaining Lords there are supposedly already on the same side. He has noone to make a power play against there and not much to gain from it, for the moment, so long as Tommen or Myrcella is on the Throne. So there would have to be a big shift in power there first before any move at all would make sense.

3. Right now he avoids open conflict by seeming to be on the same side as the powers that be in KL. This means he needs no armies. There is an enemy of those current rulers in the North right now, not the Riverlands. He makes his moves where there is conflict to profit from, whichever side he takes.

The coming of Aegon and/or Dany would take care of (1). He would pick a side, and his enemies would already be engaged on other fronts.

As for (2), he is officially lord paramount on orders of the Lannisters. De-facto, the Freys are ruling the Riverlands and LF hasn't even entered his theoretical seat, Harrenhall. Since LF is planning on turning against the Lannisters (at the latest when he reveals Sansa openly), he can't count on theoretical titles given by them.

(3): LF is on his own side, not on the side of the current rulers in KL. He seems quite capable of raising an army in the Vale (partially through Sansa, presumably) that would effectively fight for his interests in the Riverlands. And if his timing is right, he might get confirmed as lord paramount by whomever takes the Iron Throne afterwards. He could wait with his move until Dany returns (with some kind of invasion army) and then declare for her.

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The coming of Aegon and/or Dany would take care of (1). He would pick a side, and his enemies would already be engaged on other fronts.As for (2), he is officially lord paramount on orders of the Lannisters. De-facto, the Freys are ruling the Riverlands and LF hasn't even entered his theoretical seat, Harrenhall. Since LF is planning on turning against the Lannisters (at the latest when he reveals Sansa openly), he can't count on theoretical titles given by them.(3): LF is on his own side, not on the side of the current rulers in KL. He seems quite capable of raising an army in the Vale (partially through Sansa, presumably) that would effectively fight for his interests in the Riverlands. And if his timing is right, he might get confirmed as lord paramount by whomever takes the Iron Throne afterwards. He could wait with his move until Dany returns (with some kind of invasion army) and then declare for her.

1. The coming of Aegon or Dany doesn't change a thing as far as that goes actually, because the Riverlands remain indefensible for someone who plans treacherous self-interest in the long term. He picked the Vale as base because it is a fortress. The Riverlands are anything but.

2. Yes he is Lord Paramount throught the Lannisters, the point is, in the current situation he doesn't need to do ANYTHING to acquire power there. He already has it. When the political situation changes because the Lannisters are out of power, yes, then he would need to do something to secure his hold on the Riverlands, but he does not need to right now, and will wait to do so until he knows which way the wind will blow in the war.

I disagree that the Vale would fight on his behalf for the Riverlands. His hold on the Vale is weak for now and the Riverlands are not the concern of the knights of the Vale. Such a thing would require a great deal of loyalty and deep roots which he does not have.

3. I said "seeming" to be on the same side. Of course he is working for his own interests. But meanwhile he is not drawn into a war because he is not seen as a threat because the rulers believe he is their ally. The Riverlands are not a safe base from which to openly defy the Iron Throne. But the Vale is, and the North is.

His ultimate goal is likely to marry Sansa himself (and in that way secure his hold on the Riverlands when the time is right) but first he needs her as a tool to secure a power base for him in the Vale and then the North, and THEN the Riverlands, because if he married her before she staked her claim on the North her claim there would not be recognized and he would gain nothing.

Edited by Hippocras
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  • 2 weeks later...

So according the show LF is taking the knights of the Vale to Winterfell in the aftermath of the Stannis/Bolton conflict to claim Winterfell. Is this a spoiler for the books. Is that what LF and Sansa will actually do?

It seems plausible. That's assuming everything goes Perfect for Littlefinger in the Vale and he manages to actually get the Vale army behind him. The question is, how will the Northerners react? Especially if Rickon is safety returned to Winterfell. Something tells me the Northmen wouldn't like an army consisting of their old enemies marching up to Winterfell.

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So according the show LF is taking the knights of the Vale to Winterfell in the aftermath of the Stannis/Bolton conflict to claim Winterfell. Is this a spoiler for the books. Is that what LF and Sansa will actually do?

Damn unlikely.

If there is an aftermath of the Stannis/Bolton conflict, it will have a clear winner and the North will be solidly behind him. And LF got no chance in hell to do anything useful with the knights of the Vale.

With Sansa, maybe. But not with any knights.

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So according the show LF is taking the knights of the Vale to Winterfell in the aftermath of the Stannis/Bolton conflict to claim Winterfell. Is this a spoiler for the books. Is that what LF and Sansa will actually do?

I don't see how unless the Vale has a large fleet we haven't heard about, even then with winter so close there is no way they can expect to stay in the North long if they were to invade. If they defeat Stannis or Roose in one decisive battle and use Sansa's marriage to Harry to claim Winterfell I suppose it could work.

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So according the show LF is taking the knights of the Vale to Winterfell in the aftermath of the Stannis/Bolton conflict to claim Winterfell. Is this a spoiler for the books. Is that what LF and Sansa will actually do?

In the show, LF said explicitly that the Vale knights are especially trained to fight in the snow, which I don't think was ever even hinted at in the books (contrary to the northmen). I'm guessing it's a show-only thing and LF indeed intends to bring troops north in the show. It may not be what would happen in the books though, because the Vale is virtually closed (except by ship) by the snows by the end of AFFC.

In the books, Sansa is engaged with Vale politics for the moment, and not anywhere near Ramsay and Roose Bolton. I think the book and show storyline may differ quite radically if the show keeps going in the direction seemingly shown by LF.

LF lies to everyone though, in the show even more than in the books, so who knows what his plans really are. Apparently he really underestimated Ramsay as well, and the controversial scene from the show may mean trouble between him and Sansa. After all, he pushed her into this situation.

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I sadly think that Sansa will be a casualty in the end, i don't think she'll be alive at the end of the books.

But i hope from all my heart i'm wrong and she'll make it.

I think Sansa is one of the most likely to make it to the end. Both because she isn't the martial type (less likely to die in battle) and because her story has been one of a long setup. Presumably there must be a point to her branch of "training", and to me it looks like that will come near and at the end of the books.

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Way back after my 1st read of the books, I thought Sansa was fluff. I was stunned at my own reaction to the last show episode--who knew I actually cared what happened to Sansa, she was fluff. The new chapter gave me hope--far more hope than that show gives me. Sansa is and always has been playing the Game of Thrones. She will own it and if there is a throne left I expect her to be upon it. Sansa is not magical but she may be the most unique character in this story. Her training extends beyond politics, though. She is taking care of a little boy and I expect her to head North to care for another little boy before too long. Maybe LF's head will just explode then.


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Way back after my 1st read of the books, I thought Sansa was fluff. I was stunned at my own reaction to the last show episode--who knew I actually cared what happened to Sansa, she was fluff. The new chapter gave me hope--far more hope than that show gives me. Sansa is and always has been playing the Game of Thrones. She will own it and if there is a throne left I expect her to be upon it. Sansa is not magical but she may be the most unique character in this story. Her training extends beyond politics, though. She is taking care of a little boy and I expect her to head North to care for another little boy before too long. Maybe LF's head will just explode then.

I think LF will be dead by then.

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