Who will win the Battle in the Ice in The Winds of Winter?

[The Drunkard]

That's interesting, although are you that certain Stannis won't burn Theon? I know Asha pleaded for a beheading, but surely Stannis will give Theon to the flames to appease the Mountain Clans and excite his own men? Plus, I don't think Stannis is likely to believe that a heart tree spoke to Theon, let alone spare him for it. Unless Asha does something about it, Theon will die in the next book.

Asha likely will do something about it, though. That story about the historic kingsmoot (a missing claimant challenging the winner's legitimacy by not having been there) had to be brought up for a reason, and Theon is the only one capable of challenging Euron's victory. I can see Stannis deciding to keep Theon alive long enough to delegitimize Euron and divide the ironborn (given future plans to conquer the Iron Islands are briefly brought up in that sample chapter) if the execution isn't overwhelmingly demanded by the northerners (which I don't think it would be if he destroys the Freys at the crofters village and appeases them for the time being). Whether or not that comes to pass I don't know, but I can see it causing Stannis to delay the execution long enough for Theon to find himself in less dangerous cirumstances.

As to the battle of ice, I think he'll win. He's obviously planned something given his quiet confidence about natural defenses and his unexplained decision to wait at the village rather than marching onward as was originally intended when they first arrived. Also, some of his men fell through a hidden pond during the march, killing all of them (plus some of those who went to help) so he's aware of how dangerous it can be, and he's kept a beacon fire burning 24/7 despite not awaiting any new allies (i.e he's trying to attract his enemies).

[LordStoneheart]

Best case scenario, both sides lose.

[Mithras]

Best case scenario, both sides lose.

So that one distraction for your favourite character is eliminated before she comes to Westeros?

I don't think so.

[ShelbySmythe]

Asha likely will do something about it, though. That story about the historic kingsmoot (a missing claimant challenging the winner's legitimacy by not having been there) had to be brought up for a reason, and Theon is the only one capable of challenging Euron's victory. I can see Stannis deciding to keep Theon alive long enough to delegitimize Euron and divide the ironborn (given future plans to conquer the Iron Islands are briefly brought up in that sample chapter) if the execution isn't overwhelmingly demanded by the northerners (which I don't think it would be if he destroys the Freys at the crofters village and appeases them for the time being). Whether or not that comes to pass I don't know, but I can see it causing Stannis to delay the execution long enough for Theon to find himself in less dangerous cirumstances.

As to the battle of ice, I think he'll win. He's obviously planned something given his quiet confidence about natural defenses and his unexplained decision to wait at the village rather than marching onward as was originally intended when they first arrived. Also, some of his men fell through a hidden pond during the march, killing all of them (plus some of those who went to help) so he's aware of how dangerous it can be, and he's kept a beacon fire burning 24/7 despite not awaiting any new allies (i.e he's trying to attract his enemies).

I really hope you're right; Theon has steadily become one of my favourite characters throughout A Dance with Dragons and I'd hate to see him go. And maybe Davos might get a message to Stannis about his mission? That would back up the claim by Theon that he didn't kill either Bran or Rickon, and would be enough to spare him I think. If Stannis trusts anyone, it'd be his Onion Knight right?

[LordStoneheart]

So that one distraction for your favourite character is eliminated before she comes to Westeros?

I don't think so.

My favorite character is in the Riverlands and is actually two characters. I was thinking more about the Starks & Winterfell than Dany. But of course Stannis can't die before Daenerys arrives. She is going to slay his life, after all.

[The Witch King of Asshai]

I think its safe to assume Stannis has a plan for defeating the forces sent to meet him, probably one that minimises his own losses. Considering that the Frey's are led by "Ser Stupid", for Stannis to be defeated by an army led by a moron would be surprising. And, if he does eliminate the Freys and the Manderly's defect, Roose is left in Winterfell, which Theon has already infiltrated once, and has not only lost a few thousand men (some of them to Stannis), he's lost the Frey's, who were about the only faction he could rely on not to betray him. Although he would still win a conventional siege given the weather conditions, I doubt there will be a conventional siege.

That said, Roose seems too smart to die like this. Ramsay perhaps, but not Roose.

[ShelbySmythe]

I think its safe to assume Stannis has a plan for defeating the forces sent to meet him, probably one that minimises his own losses. Considering that the Frey's are led by "Ser Stupid", for Stannis to be defeated by an army led by a moron would be surprising. And, if he does eliminate the Freys and the Manderly's defect, Roose is left in Winterfell, which Theon has already infiltrated once, and has not only lost a few thousand men (some of them to Stannis), he's lost the Frey's, who were about the only faction he could rely on not to betray him. Although he would still win a conventional siege given the weather conditions, I doubt there will be a conventional siege.

That said, Roose seems too smart to die like this. Ramsay perhaps, but not Roose.

I agree. Roose must have his doubts. I'd be very surprised if he died in the upcoming Battle. With Ramsay, I wouldn't be surprised; in fact, I'd be relieved. He needs to die, really he does.

[Amris]

Here is a blog with intelligent speculation by cantuse on the Battle of Ice:

https://cantuse.wordpress.com/2014/09/30/the-mannifesto/

Cantuses' analysis of the first battle (Battle at the Crofters' Village) seems pretty well thought through IMO.

I am less sold on his predictions concerning the second battle (Battle for Winterfell) since the clues we have are ambiguous and can be read many different ways but his theory makes a nice read anyway.

[ShelbySmythe]

Here is a blog with intelligent speculation by cantuse on the Battle of Ice:

https://cantuse.wordpress.com/2014/09/30/the-mannifesto/

Cantuses' analysis of the first battle (Battle at the Crofters' Village) seems pretty well thought through IMO.

I am less sold on his predictions concerning the second battle (Battle for Winterfell) since the clues we have are ambiguous and can be read many different ways but his theory makes a nice read anyway.

Thanks for that! It'll make a good read!

[Laughing Storm Reborn]

I want and think the Mannis will win, but if he doesn´t i won´t burn the books or anything...

The question is, if Roose wins then what?? UnJon comes down with the Others to defeat him?? Dany vs The Roose?? meeeeeeeeeh

[Lion of the West]

I didn't say it was relevant. It was just a question I thought of while reading through the forum. I was just interested as to what he thought. What do you think? Who would you rather defend against the Others?

I'd rather see King Tommen and a good Hand to him.

[CinnaBronn]

Stannis. I hope so, at least.

[A horsefaced girl]

Stannis

[Ser Creighton]

My favorite character is in the Riverlands and is actually two characters. I was thinking more about the Starks & Winterfell than Dany. But of course Stannis can't die before Daenerys arrives. She is going to slay his life, after all.

Doubtful, there is only one thing that slays a lie, and it is not death. It's the truth, her existance, her dragons, her place of birth, all indicate who Mel was looking for. As soon as people see the Dragons they will know that Stannis' story and what Mel said is wrong.

Anyway onto the actual subject, I think Stannis will win, but that does not end his battles he has more battles to fight just as Dany, and Jon, and Aeong, and the Lannisters and pretty much everyone else has more to do.

Stannis is flanked by two snow covered lakes, that is the trap. With FArya gone I suspect some of the Northern lords to go over to his side and for their to be infighting in Winterfell. The only thing that bothers me is the food shortage by both sides, and Martins shit logistics. How did Stannis plan on brining food to his army? He wants use White Harbor, but he does not know they have a deal, but he is doing it anyway. Like White Harbor would not notice a fleet from Braavos with an army of sell swords and lots of provisions passing through.

His men are alrady Starving and Winterfell is also running short on supplies. I also can't figure out how he is going to go anywhere. The storms and snow stopped him, and this is just the begining of winter. Are we going to get a sudden thaw that clears the Kings Road for him? Is movment suddenly going to become easy where Martin just showed it was a death march? You can move small groups around well enough, an army needs it's supply tail and those do not move well in these conditions.

[SacredOrderOfGreenMen]

House Stark, in the form of Bran:

Bran, the Blizzard, and the Battle of Ice

Ser Bartimus’s tale of Brandon the Ice Eyes in ADWD, which is told before Bran’s last chapter and Asha’s chapters about the march to Winterfell, seems to foreshadow, however, how the battle will ultimately end:

When old King Edrick Stark had grown too feeble to defend his realm, the Wolf’s Den was captured by slavers from the Stepstones.

“Then a long cruel winter fell,” said Ser Bartimus. “The White Knife froze hard, and even the firth was icing up. The winds came howling from the north and drove them slavers inside to huddle round their fires, and whilst they warmed themselves the new king come down on them. Brandon Stark this was, Edrick Snowbeard’s great-grandson, him that men called Ice Eyes. He took the Wolf’s Den back, stripped the slavers naked, and gave them to the slaves he’d found chained up in the dungeons.” -Davos, ADWD.

If GRRM simply wanted to confirm blood sacrifice to the Old Gods in Davos’s chapter, Bran’s weirwood visions could have sufficed, or he could have just have had Ser Bartimus describe it in another manner. Instead, GRRM chose to specifically describe a historical event in which the Old Gods sent down a savior-king named Brandonfrom the north when a long cruel winter fell to retake a castle and were given grisly sacrifice as compensation. Bran’s eyes are deep blue because of his Tully heritage, and eyes of this color are often compared to ice in the narrative.

The winds of winter that heralded the Ice Eyes and were key to his victory are extremely similar to the apparently unnatural blizzard that now surrounds Winterfell, and there is one possible source of this magic we should consider: Jojen’s death, which has been set up as an expected and significant event. I will propose that he is dead, and he has been sacrificed, but not to make the weirwood paste. Instead, it was to craft a spell of stormsinging similar to one used by others in the narrative, such Victarion and Stannis himself, with a particularly northern bent on it.

The blizzard around Winterfell is implied in Jon’s POV to not be natural:

The snow was falling heavily outside. “Wind’s from the south,” Yarwyck observed. “It’s blowing the snow right up against the Wall. See?”
He was right. The switchback stair was buried almost to the first landing, Jon saw, and the wooden doors of the ice cells and storerooms had vanished behind a wall of white.-Jon, ADWD.

The winds of winter customarily come from the North, but this blizzard come from Winterfell, as did those of the Brandon Ice Eyes

The Old Gods also show or strongly suggested in canon to have some power over the wind. Osha says that the Old Gods “whisper” through a breeze. This is exactly what Bran manages to do when he attempts to speak to his father in the past:

“Father.” Bran’s voice was a whisper in the wind, a rustle in the leaves.

This and other pieces of evidences were used in the text to craft a theory that the Storm God of the Ironborn is in fact the Old Gods, and that the Hammer of Waters laid waste the Iron Islands as revenge for destroying a massive grove of weirwoods there (now known as Nagga’s Bones). The Damphair says that “ravens were creatures of the Storm God” and considers the possibly skingchanging Farwynds to be unholy. We learn in ADWD that ravens are in fact the chosen messengers and the second life of the Children and their First Men allies.

The Grey King was said to warm his Hall with the Nagga’s living fire, and fashioned a longship from the white wood of Ygg, a tree that devoured human flesh (that’s definitely weirwood). It would seem that he was burning weirwood, as there’s no other legends of sea monsters in Westeros like Nagga, and the description of Nagga’s Bones closely resembles dead weirwoods. When the Storm God’s wrath comes down on him, it specifically snuffs out that fire. Stannis, before the blizzard begins to decimate his southron soldiers, committed the same hated blasphemy by forcing the Free Folk burn branches of weirwood.

I would propose that the blizzard around Winterfell is a work of magic that serves a multitude of functions: to punish Stannis and the followers of R’hllor for burning weirwood, to slow that army down to give Bran time to return via Gorne’s Way, and to hide that army as it approaches Winterfell.

It’s even directly called a curse sent by the Old Gods by northmen and others who are either outright Stark loyalists at heart, or are of dubious loyalty to Bolton per a certain component of the GNC theory:

“The gods have turned against us,” old Lord Locke was heard to say in the Great Hall. “This is their wroth. A wind as cold as hell itself and snows that never end. We are cursed.”-Theon, ADWD

That was the night that Asha first heard the queen’s men muttering about a sacrifice—an offering to their red god, so he might end the storm. “The gods of the north have unleashed this storm on us,” Ser Corliss Penny said.-Asha, ADWD

What has your southron god to do with snow?” demanded Artos Flint. His black beard was crusted with ice. “This is the wroth of the old gods come upon us. It is them we should appease.”-Asha, ADWD

Notably, this blizzard falls after Bran’s last chapter, and hence Jojen’s disappearance.

Those inside the castle are right to believe that this blizzard is ill-omen for them. The winds of winter were integral to the victory of Ice Eyes, who fell upon the slavers while they were “huddled around their fires”. The blizzard has already blinded those hold up in Winterfell:

“He could be camped five feet from our walls with a hundred thousand men,” said an archer wearing Cerwyn colors. “We’d never see a one o’ them through this storm.”-Theon, ADWD.

“To fight Lord Stannis we would first need to find him,” Roose Ryswell pointed out. “Our scouts go out the Hunter’s Gate, but of late, none of them return.”-Theon, ADWD

“Twenty green boys, with spades,” Theon told him. “The snow fell heavily for days. So heavily that you could not see the castle walls ten yards away, no more than the men up on the battlements could see what was happening beyond those walls. So Crowfood set his boys to digging pits outside the castle gates, then blew his horn to lure Lord Bolton out. Instead he got the Freys. The snow had covered up the pits, so they rode right into them. Aenys broke his neck, I heard, but Ser Hosteen only lost a horse, more’s the pity.”-Theon, TWOW

The blizzard has perfectly served the interests of the Stark loyalists, but not exactly Stannis and certainly not the Bolton-Frey alliance. Those same winds have had little effect on the northman that march with Stannis:

The northmen fared much better, with their garrons and their bear-paws. Black Donnel Flint and his half-brother Artos only lost one man between them. The Liddles, the Wulls, and the Norreys lost none at all. One of Morgan Liddle’s mules had gone astray, but he seemed to think the Flints had stolen him.

The southerners looked a sorry lot, Asha thought—gaunt and hollow-cheeked, some pale and sick, others with red and wind-scoured faces. By contrast the northmen seemed hale and healthy, big ruddy men with beards as thick as bushes, clad in fur and iron. They might be cold and hungry too, but the marching had gone easier for them, with their garrons and their bear-paws.

The Hammer of the Waters was said to be created as most powerful magic in ASOIAF is: with blood sacrifice. The Singers are said to either have sacrificed a 1000 human captives or their own children. Victarion practices blood sacrifice to manipulate the weather, and Stannis’s fast journey to the Wall was partly made possibly by unusually good winds after a blood sacrifice.

Which brings us to the question of how Jojen’s death fits into this. His future death has been referenced since ACOK. He knows when and how he will die, and it comes up frequently in the narrative. Jojen says, “The gods gave me only greendreams. My task was to get you here. My part in this is done.” His last words in ADWD were, “He’s not the one who needs to be afraid.”

By weakening Stannis’s southron, R’hllor worshipping army, slowing down its march and at the same time cloaking it with snows, it provides time for Bran to return as the savior of his people as the Ice Eyes was.

How will Bran do this?: The mysteriously cold and black pool that Osha implies has something important at the bottom of it, the "swift black river" under the the Cave of the Three-Eyed Crow and Gorne's Way:

How can you swim in there?” he asked Osha. “Isn’t it cold?”

“As a babe I suckled on icicles, boy. I like the cold.” Osha swam to the rocks and rose dripping. She was naked, her skin bumpy with gooseprickles. Summer crept close and sniffed at her. “I wanted to touch the bottom.”

“I never knew there was a bottom.”

“Might be there isn’t.” She grinned.-Bran, ACOK

There are hundreds o’ caves in these hills, and down deep they all connect. There’s even a way under your Wall. Gorne’s Way.”-Jon, ASOS

The caves were timeless, vast, silent. They were home to more than three score living singers and the bones of thousands dead, and extended far below the hollow hill. “Men should not go wandering in this place,” Leaf warned them…there are passages that go even deeper, bottomless pits and sudden shafts, forgotten ways that lead to the very center of the earth. Even my people have not explored them all, and we have lived here for a thousand thousand of your man-years.”-Bran, ADWD

It brings to mind a transcription of a wildling song in Maester Herryk’s History of the Kings-Beyond-the-Wall, regarding the brothers Gendel and Gorne. They were called upon to mediate a dispute between a clan of children and a family of giants over the possession of a cavern. Gendel and Gorne, it is said, ultimately resolved the matter through trickery, making both sides disavow any desire for the cavern, after the brothers discovered it was a part of a greater chain of caverns that eventually passed beneath the Wall.-The World of Ice and Fire

So here is my speculative outline for the TWOW concerning Winterfell:

1. Bran will spend at least one more chapter in the Cave, where (hopefully) we’ll deal with skinchanging Hodor, the origin of the Others and possibly other backstory such as the Tourney of Harrenhall. At the end of the chapter, he will begin his journey through Gorne’s Way.
2. He will spend at least one chapter traveling though Gorne’s Way, possibly two. (if there’s any reality to the story of Gendel’s Children, this one will take the horror aspects of Bran’s story to their darkest extent).
3. After the Battle on the Ice (i.e. Long Lake) is concluded with Stannis gaining an incomplete victory, the Mountain Clans will still be trapped outside the walls. Bran will emerge through Gorne’s Way in the crypts or near the Walls and use his knowledge of Winterfell’s architecture from his days a climber, his power over ravens and Summer to lead the Stark loyalists in a lopsided and bloody battle against the Botlon’s alliance, including the Ryswells and Dustins if Lady Barbary truly does stay loyal to Roose.
4. Before the conclusion of TWOW, Bran will begin to ready Winterfell for the defense against the Others through knowledge of its construction and magic (”the trees will teach you” as Leaf says) and Arya will either arrive and be close to arriving with Nymeria and her pack.

[The Drunkard]

The only thing that bothers me is the food shortage by both sides, and Martins shit logistics. How did Stannis plan on brining food to his army? He wants use White Harbor, but he does not know they have a deal, but he is doing it anyway. Like White Harbor would not notice a fleet from Braavos with an army of sell swords and lots of provisions passing through.

His men are alrady Starving and Winterfell is also running short on supplies. I also can't figure out how he is going to go anywhere. The storms and snow stopped him, and this is just the begining of winter. Are we going to get a sudden thaw that clears the Kings Road for him? Is movment suddenly going to become easy where Martin just showed it was a death march? You can move small groups around well enough, an army needs it's supply tail and those do not move well in these conditions.

Well, no one on either side predicted the blizzard and he lacked the ability to feed his army at Deepwood and the Wall, so that coupled with the northerners' insistence that he rescue Arya would have prompted him to march. Food concerns after the battle would've been a future bridge to cross (and once the blizzard does hit he's practically forced into an all-or-nothing scenario).

I'm not sure how he plans on supplying his army currently but I would suspect that Manderly has a part to play (unbeknownst to Stannis). He boasts about his army and wealth yet only brings a few hundred men to the wedding, so I'd guess the rest are waiting around somewhere (and capable of feeding Winterfell in a pinch).

Incidentally Stannis tells Massey to send men to him via Eastwatch, not White Harbor, if that's something you were contesting (couldn't tell).

[DarkstarViserys]

Based off of the show they show Stannis with the advantage so he will lose. I believe Roose is a bigger threat then we all think. The show plays him against both LF and Stannis. He has to be the surviving antagonist. Roose and Ramsay will survive.

[AryaNymeriaVisenya]

I want and think the Mannis will win, but if he doesn´t i won´t burn the books or anything...

The question is, if Roose wins then what?? UnJon comes down with the Others to defeat him?? Dany vs The Roose?? meeeeeeeeeh

I do feel like Jon was so restricted in A Dance with Dragons, so tortured by his inability to act that surely when he comes back there has to be a piece of House Bolton left for him to wail on?

[aryagonnakill#2]

When Stannis wins the first battle of ice he will have all the dead horses and probably some supplies from the Freys and possible Bolton contingent.

The passage Bran tells us about in AGOT does not lead from outside the castle to inside.

[Ser Creighton]

Well, no one on either side predicted the blizzard and he lacked the ability to feed his army at Deepwood and the Wall, so that coupled with the northerners' insistence that he rescue Arya would have prompted him to march. Food concerns after the battle would've been a future bridge to cross (and once the blizzard does hit he's practically forced into an all-or-nothing scenario).

I'm not sure how he plans on supplying his army currently but I would suspect that Manderly has a part to play (unbeknownst to Stannis). He boasts about his army and wealth yet only brings a few hundred men to the wedding, so I'd guess the rest are waiting around somewhere (and capable of feeding Winterfell in a pinch).

Incidentally Stannis tells Massey to send men to him via Eastwatch, not White Harbor, if that's something you were contesting (couldn't tell).

How easy will it be for Massey to take a ship from Eastwatch? Winter just set in and all the ships at Eastwatch are gone, so he has to go through White Harbor. Then bring ships from Baavos to Eastwatch and then march about 800 - 1000 miles south. It's not done snowing yet either, winter is only going to get worse. So I was wondering how anyone was going to go anywhere in the north with a giant logistics tail. That is one f the main things that slowed Stannis to like 3 miles a day. This is just the begining of the snow, he Kings road is shut down unless they have people plowing it out, and I doubt they do as they don't have plows.

So I am wondering how Martin plans to get anyone moving anywhere with like 8 feet of Snow on the ground and more coming, and more wind and more cold. They could use the White Knife but even in the books that has been known to freeze as well.

And yes someone did predict the weather, Martin. I am not blaming the weather on characters. I am pointing out he created this monster and wondering if he will just ignore it when it suits him too which he often does. People started eating people in Stannis' camp. It should take months for help to arrive from Baavos, or will Martin just jump in and say a couple of weeks or 3 weeks or some goofy number which goes against all the information he gives you, because he often does that with logistics. The logistics of the matter seem near impossible for anything good to happen in time to help him. The watch is down to less than 6 months of food as well and has no ships to send to Braavos to get the gold from the loan and by food.