R+L=J v.140

[pytri993]

I think R+L=J kinda grew on GRRM as he went on writing. I agree that it does look like the clues were there even in AGOT, but hindsight is always 20/20. Perhaps GRRM realized he couldn't not have R+L=J, as it was already the most popular Jon theory out there, and even he would have qualms with smashing that expectation. Not sure.

[BearQueen87]

I think R+L=J kinda grew on GRRM as he went on writing. I agree that it does look like the clues were there even in AGOT, but hindsight is always 20/20. Perhaps GRRM realized he couldn't not have R+L=J, as it was already the most popular Jon theory out there, and even he would have qualms with smashing that expectation. Not sure.

The reason why it's the most popular theory is because of the clues that he laid down in the first three books, especially in AGOT (when he was still thinking "trilogy" and not 7 books). The clues came first, not people popularizing RLJ

[pytri993]

I see your point, but I still have my doubts. Well I hope canon source will put my doubts to rest then, one way or the other. Thanks for the insights

[Ser Creighton]

So if I follow, with info form the world book.

Rhaegar and Elia were betrothed in Early 279, and Wed the following year in 280, Rhaenys was also born in 280, but it would have to be late 280. So September or October looks right.

Have you thought about using the Equinoxes and Solstices as marker points for the seasons? Even though they last for years, I suspect when the seasons actually do change it is right around the time they would normally change. Given Rhaenys time of birth, then 6 months later would of been around the time of the spring Equinox. If she was born in September than Aegons conception would of been in March of 281, probably in KL on the way to the Tourney. Then his birth would of been in December, and in the World book it says that is when Rhaegar took to the road with the coming of a new year.

So if you use the Equinoxes and Solstices, and the red Comet which happens right around 9 months after Dany's name day. Then Dany was born in December, and Jon was born in March, and my guess is Bran was Born in June as he is called a Summer child. So Dany would be born 3 years after Rhaegar took to the road in December and the borth of Aegon. Though it could very well be wrong, it's just everytime Dany has that sort of rebirth moment with some srt of Dragonstone, fire and hair loss, the very next chapter we see a white Raven, so I wondered if her birth occured on a solstice or Equinox as well. Though it should of been March not December, given the first time was the end of summer and the begining of fall and the second time was the end of fall and the begining of Winter. Then again I don't know if Rhaego was full term.

I hate Martin and his Timeline. Then again it doesn't have to be an Equinox or Solstice, but boy the Equinox sure plays into his themes. Then again they could also be backwards. Meaning December would actually be June, and September would be March. I don't know, I quit, I hate looking at his messsed up Timelines. Not a single fucking person in the books knows what day, month or year anything ever happened.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Ser Creighton, Dany cannot have been born in December.. Robert died in 298 AC, and in Clash, it is stated that

“Ser Jorah, find the docks and see what manner of ships lay at anchor. It has been half a year since I last heard tidings from the Seven Kingdoms. Perhaps the gods will have blown some good captain here from Westeros with a ship to carry us home.”

and

“I bring you Quhuru Mo, captain of the Cinnamon Wind out of Tall Trees Town.” …;… “This is so, Your Grace, but before, not half a year past, we called at Oldtown. From there I bring you a wondrous gift.” ; “A gift?” ; “A gift of news. Dragonmother, Stormborn, I tell you true, Robert Baratheon is dead.”

The first quote shows that about half a year has passed since the Khalasar left Vaes Dothrak, the last time Dany had tiding from Westeros. She was still 14 then. In the Red Waste, around the time of the comet, she also mentions she is 14.

The second quote shows that Robert's death occured less than half a year before that chapter (Daenerys II). Daenerys II is the first chapter where it is mentioned that Dany is 15. As the chapter takes place in 299 AC, and Robert has died in 298 AC, it shows that we cannot be more than 6 months into 299 AC..

[Ser Creighton]

Ser Creighton, Dany cannot have been born in December.. Robert died in 298 AC, and in Clash, it is stated that

“Ser Jorah, find the docks and see what manner of ships lay at anchor. It has been half a year since I last heard tidings from the Seven Kingdoms. Perhaps the gods will have blown some good captain here from Westeros with a ship to carry us home.”

and

“I bring you Quhuru Mo, captain of the Cinnamon Wind out of Tall Trees Town.” …;… “This is so, Your Grace, but before, not half a year past, we called at Oldtown. From there I bring you a wondrous gift.” ; “A gift?” ; “A gift of news. Dragonmother, Stormborn, I tell you true, Robert Baratheon is dead.”

The first quote shows that about half a year has passed since the Khalasar left Vaes Dothrak, the last time Dany had tiding from Westeros. She was still 14 then. In the Red Waste, around the time of the comet, she also mentions she is 14.

The second quote shows that Robert's death occured less than half a year before that chapter (Daenerys II). Daenerys II is the first chapter where it is mentioned that Dany is 15. As the chapter takes place in 299 AC, and Robert has died in 298 AC, it shows that we cannot be more than 6 months into 299 AC..

I'll get back to on that, but it does not say Robert died 6 months ago, it says they got News six months ago of his death. They are Sailors, how long were they at sea before they got to Oldtown? The letterJorah got in Vaes Dothrak would of been months old, it takes time for these things to cover that distance. That's why Robert could not stop the assasin, because it was to late to get information over that distance. Robert was probably dead before the assasin even tried to kill Dany. Neds Death should be really close to the arrival of the comet as Bran sees it the day he hears his father is dead.

Dany lists her name Day on the day she first says she is pregnant, I don't know if Rhaego came to full term either. I just know when the comet showed up. But if he did the Red Comet happens about 9 months after that and she would be 15 within 3 months of the comet. Which would make it December, and the comet in September. Meaninig Jon was born in March, but only if Martin is using the Eqinoxes for the changing of seasons. I mean summer could of started in Febuary for all I know. I mean we have no refernce for a month, they seem to record the changing of the seasons, but they can happen whenever, do they use a lunar cycle, or a solar cycle or a luni solar? Do they just count days? So the only thing I have as a marker for comparable months are the Comet and the White Ravens and just a guess that changing seasons occur during their normal solstice and equinoxes. Though not sure, but that means you literally have no reference point for a month. Because is summer, winter, fall, and spring can begin and end in any month, then it throws everything off. All you have is a few points that say it is a different year and almost never any knowledge of when the year actually changed. The difference between 298 and 299 can be a day or it can be 730 days. It could be the change or it could be the polls.

All I really have is that when the comet came, the season changed, and Ned died around that time as well. The next time Dany loses her hair in a fire, the White Ravens are sent again winter begins. As for the Wind and her crew I have no idea how long Robert had been dead when they arrived at Oldtown, just when they were in Oldtown. Ned was a hostage long enough for Robb to call his banners, and march south. Dany followed the Comet for some time, so Did Jon. But not that long, I don't think it could of been in the sky for months.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I'll get back to on that, but it does not say Robert died 6 months ago, it says they got News six months ago of his death. They are Sailors, how long were they at sea before they got to Oldtown? The letterJorah got in Vaes Dothrak would of been months old, it takes time for these things to cover that distance. That's why Robert could not stop the assasin, because it was to late to get information over that distance. Robert was probably dead before the assasin even tried to kill Dany. Neds Death should be really close to the arrival of the comet as Bran sees it the day he hears his father is dead.

That is true, yet the captain also stopped at Dorne, and still, no news about Ned's death had reached, only Robert's death, and Ned's arrest.

Dany lists her name Day on the day she first says she is pregnant, I don't know if Rhaego came to full term either. I just know when the comet showed up. But if he did the Red Comet happens about 9 months after that and she would be 15 within 3 months of the comet. Which would make it December, and the comet in September. Meaninig Jon was born in March, but only if Martin is using the Eqinoxes for the changing of seasons. I mean summer could of started in Febuary for all I know. I mean we have no refernce for a month, they seem to record the changing of the seasons, but they can happen whenever, do they use a lunar cycle, or a solar cycle or a luni solar? Do they just count days? So the only thing I have as a marker for comparable months are the Comet and the White Ravens and just a guess that changing seasons occur during their normal solstice and equinoxes. Though not sure, but that means you literally have no reference point for a month. Because is summer, winter, fall, and spring can begin and end in any month, then it throws everything off. All you have is a few points that say it is a different year and almost never any knowledge of when the year actually changed. The difference between 298 and 299 can be a day or it can be 730 days. It could be the change or it could be the polls.

Dany notices she's pregnant on her nameday, but that means that she has been pregnant for a while by then, due to the swelling of her belly being noticable. And Rhaego does appear to have been a full term.. She told Mirri herself that her time was near.

I really don't get how you reach December for Dany's nameday..? Or March for Jon's, as we can practically count the months that pass minimally in Game before Jon mentions his nameday has passed (Robert stays a month at Winterfell, Jon takes some 24 days to get to the Wall, and Robert's journey to Winterfelll seems to have taken some 1,5 months, judging from the time described on the way back, and a fortnight passed between Joffrey;s nameday and Jon Arryn's death, and Benjen will have been gone at least 18 days, as it would have taken the rangers he had been looking for 9 days to get back to CB, and they already covered at least that distance once already).

And then I'm not even speaking about the obvious time that passes in the year before Joffrey's nameday, or the time that passes in between that hasn't been specifically mentioned.

[Lord Varys]

On Ned being 'in the South' when Robb was born:

That's way too vague to be used to determine when the war ended. Especially since we don't know how much time he spent at the tower or at Starfall. The war could have long been over, and Ned may have still been in the South. Not to mention that KL is also south of Riverrun, and we know Ned eventually returned to KL first before he went back home as he and Robert reconciled when they grieved for Lyanna together.

All of that could easily involved months. Not to mention that Ned may not have been particularly eager to return to 'Brandon's betrothed'. By that time being around Cat must have been very awkward - especially if he had actually been in love with Ashara and was sad to not be able to marry her/grief-stricken about her (apparent) suicide if he heard about that at KL.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

The exact quote is "warring in the south"..

Still, it is just a small part of it all

[Lord Varys]

Yeah, I know. But then, this is Catelyn remembering stuff 14-15 years later. It is very unlikely that anyone is getting the dates right if a person remembers stuff this far in the past casually. Unless it is a very distinct memory connected to a specific day/date.

While Ned might have been warring for quite some time of his absence we don't have to go with being at war for the whole time. That is unlikely in any case as it seems that the Trident was not that far after the wedding, and then everything would have gone very quick anyway. With the war going about a year in total Ned cannot have been fought more than three months or so after the wedding

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Yeah, I know. But then, this is Catelyn remembering stuff 14-15 years later. It is very unlikely that anyone is getting the dates right if a person remembers stuff this far in the past casually. Unless it is a very distinct memory connected to a specific day/date.

While Ned might have been warring for quite some time of his absence we don't have to go with being at war for the whole time. That is unlikely in any case as it seems that the Trident was not that far after the wedding, and then everything would have gone very quick anyway. With the war going about a year in total Ned cannot have been fought more than three months or so after the wedding

And why not?

[Lord Varys]

Because the war from Jon Arryn raising his banners to Ned's wedding seems to make up the bulk of the fighting. George said that there was a break between the Battle of the Bells and the Trident but we also know that Ned left very shortly after his wedding for the Trident so the war cannot have been taken all that long, or can it.

I can imagine some skirmishes etc. before the Trident but as far as we know nothing major happened then. And the events after the Trident are clear. Ned rushed to KL, and shortly thereafter continued to Storm's End and the tower. End of story. Technically, the war would have ended with Mace bending the knee, I imagine. The tower stuff wasn't exactly 'a battle'. And with his few companions Ned certainly had the men to actually 'war' in the south after he had subdued the Tyrells, although he might have taken his army to Storm's End. He clearly hadn't the men to challenge any loyalists in the Reach or in Dorne while he was approaching the tower or thereafter which means he wasn't fighting a war then.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

But we don't know that Ned left shortly after his wedding for the Trident.. Ned left shortly after his wedding to resume fighting, but nowhere is it stated that this was for the Trident..

Until we get further textual evidence, I'd say that the info we currently have, suggests quite a few months passed between Ned's wedding and the Trident..

[Ygrain]

But we don't know that Ned left shortly after his wedding for the Trident.. Ned left shortly after his wedding to resume fighting, but nowhere is it stated that this was for the Trident..

Until we get further textual evidence, I'd say that the info we currently have, suggests quite a few months passed between Ned's wedding and the Trident..

???? If Ned left for the Trident shortly after his wedding, that would place Robb's conception shortly prior Jon's birth, hence making Jon more than 6 months older than Robb... kinda difficult to conceal at a tender age.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

???? If Ned left for the Trident shortly after his wedding, that would place Robb's conception shortly prior Jon's birth, hence making Jon more than 6 months older than Robb... kinda difficult to conceal at a tender age.

Exactly... That seems rather impossible...

[Ygrain]

Exactly... That seems rather impossible...

Besides, Cat's recollection of taking care of Robb, an infant at her breast, while Ned was off battling, sounds like Robb was born before the war was over, and there is absolutely no way a woman wouldn't remember whether her first-born was during the war or only afterwards (GRRM+numbers is a different cattle of fish, though).

[Jon Weirgaryen]

Medieval warfare and likewise in Westeros was no way like the total war of the last century in this world. Most of the land would never know or see whether there is a war or no, and Catelyn being in Riverrun would have been nearest to carefree possible, if not her hubby and her father had been off to war at the time. This is not so much in favour of what you said, @Ygrain.

On the other hand though: It still looks to me that the Sack of King's Landing seems to be the official end of war. Riverrun being near, they would have known as fast as the raven flies, so probably within a day. So while Cat did not see much of the war, she would have known the exact day of it's ending. So in essence, yes, Cat definitely knows the end date of the war and the birth date of Robb. Why couldn't she just mention the exact dates to us? ;)

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

TIME IS NOT ABSOLUTE ON PLANETOS

There is no way to tell the passing of days and each character has there own memories

Gorrell says Jon was conceived at start of the war making Jon older than Robb, while others say Robb was conceived after the battle of the Bells ,Barbery Ryswell says Eddard called his banners six months after Brandon's death .

[Ygrain]

Medieval warfare and likewise in Westeros was no way like the total war of the last century in this world. Most of the land would never know or see whether there is a war or no, and Catelyn being in Riverrun would have been nearest to carefree possible, if not her hubby and her father had been off to war at the time. This is not so much in favour of what you said, @Ygrain.

On the other hand though: It still looks to me that the Sack of King's Landing seems to be the official end of war. Riverrun being near, they would have known as fast as the raven flies, so probably within a day. So while Cat did not see much of the war, she would have known the exact day of it's ending. So in essence, yes, Cat definitely knows the end date of the war and the birth date of Robb. Why couldn't she just mention the exact dates to us? ;)

....is what I meant. Her own father rebelled, she was married to a leader of the Rebellion... of course she would have known, would have wanted to know, if all is won and done or if there is still a death sentence hanging over their heads.

TIME IS NOT ABSOLUTE ON PLANETOS

There is no way to tell the passing of days and each character has there own memories

Gorrell says Jon was conceived at start of the war making Jon older than Robb, while others say Robb was conceived after the battle of the Bells ,Barbery Ryswell says Eddard called his banners six months after Brandon's death .

Memories? What memories are you talking about? Was Lord Borrell hiding somewhere in a bush while Ned was at it?

[Lord Varys]

The problem is:

- We know that Jon Connington was fired as Hand after the Battle of the Bellls. We also know that Chelsted didn't serve as Hand all that long - although longer than Rossart.

- We know that there was a break in fighting between the Battle of the Bells and the Trident, and that the Battle of the Bells was before the double wedding.

It is possible to assume that the rebels were also forced to muster new troops after the Battle of the Bells, and we know that Hoster severely punished some of his own bannermen who stuck to the Targaryens during the war (although we do not know if this was before or after the Trident).

It is clear that the troops Hoster led to Stony Sept weren't his full force but most likely only a hastily assembled token force as the Freys, for instance, still didn't show up at the Trident at all. But if we go with Hoster punishing his traitorous vassals before the Trident it is really strange that he did not sent an emissary/an army to the Twins to ensure that the Frey levies join his army or do not attack them from behind.

I simply don't see much potential for battles between the rebels and the loyalists between the Battle of the Bells and the Trident besides those campaigns to punish some Riverlords. However, I imagine that the front line was somewhere in the Riverlands as the Mootons, Darrys, and Whents were backing the Targaryens which seems to have been unlikely if the rebels had been in control of all the Riverlands prior to the Trident.

But Ned might have returned north to muster some more men or accompany them down the causeway, and Jon Arryn may have done the same in the Vale. Perhaps both then met with Hoster and Robert at some other castle and never returned to Riverrun before the Trident but I don't think we can extend this time period to more than 2-3 months. Everything would be much easier if the Battle of the Bells had occurred after the double wedding as I had originally assumed.

As to Jon's birth:

We don't have an exact date of birth. In fact, you know that I'm not even sure whether Jon was already born when Ned arrived at that tower or whether his arrival triggered the birth. If we go with Ned being severely hurt during the fighting he might not have been able to speak with Lyanna for quite some time during which her health might also have severely declined. After all, Howland Reed could have both killed Ser Arthur Dayne as well as tended to Ned's wounds afterwards - or only the latter - as it is not really clear what he did, exactly (although I think he poisoned Ser Arthur if he killed him).

But considering that Lyanna and Rhaegar were together for quite some time it is actually possibly that Jon was already born when Rhaegar left - if we go with Rhaegar impregnating Lyanna on the very day he took her - as a pregnancy usually ends after nine months and if there were 2-3 months between the abduction and the outbreak of the fighting Rhaegar might still have been at the tower when the child was born. However, the age difference could have been distorted if Ned kept Jon and Robb apart for quite a time after their births. We know that Jon was already at Winterfell when Cat arrived there, and the impression I get is that Ned did not travel with him.

Targaryen children usually tend to be more slender and lighter than other (Dany, Egg, etc.) and if Robb was a big and healthy boy and Jon Snow somewhat slower and slower growing people may not have noticed the truth. Catelyn obviously did not, perhaps because she never cared to be around the child while it was an infant?

Ned's official story certainly makes Jon much older than Robb as he has told Robert that he has had his affair with Wylla after he had married Catelyn, possibly only when he went south after the Sack - Robert would have realized it if Ned had hung out with a camp follower before the Trident, and there would have been little time for him before the Sack.

But at this time Rhaegar and Lyanna had already been permanently separated which effectively makes Jon Snow about 8-9 months older than he actually is as he would have been 'officially conceived' by Ned around the time Lyanna's child was born the latest or shortly before that date.

I guess we simply have to buy that this somehow worked. Just as we have to buy that Jon Connington somehow mistook a two-year-old for 4-5-year-old if we go with the assumption that Aegon was only conceived after the Sack as Tyrion's guess about his age (15-16) might indicate.