R+L=J v.140

[Lord BitterRaven]

The reason why it's the most popular theory is because of the clues that he laid down in the first three books, especially in AGOT (when he was still thinking "trilogy" and not 7 books). The clues came first, not people popularizing RLJ

I think it was pre planned too. One of the clues in the very beginning of AGOT is Jon's eye color. They're described as being so grey they bordered on black. Lyanna's eyes are described as being grey while Rhaegars are a dark indigo. And if you combine those two colors you get a charcoal color. Little things like that fit together too nicely to be accidental.

[The Wolves]

I think it was pre planned too. One of the clues in the very beginning of AGOT is Jon's eye color. They're described as being so grey they bordered on black. Lyanna's eyes are described as being grey while Rhaegars are a dark indigo. And if you combine those two colors you get a charcoal color. Little things like that fit together too nicely to be accidental.

Just to play devil's advocate but I think the Starks' grey eyes is usually the dark grey looking black type. Arya and Ned are both described as having dark grey eyes.

[Lord Varys]

The eye-color stuff works the other way around - some Targaryens have been described to have eyes as dark a purple that it almost looked like black. So perhaps Jon's eyes are looking greyish-black but are actually more a purplish-black.

But I cannot differentiate grey eyes from a (light) blue anyway so this might just be crap.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

The problem is:

- We know that Jon Connington was fired as Hand after the Battle of the Bellls. We also know that Chelsted didn't serve as Hand all that long - although longer than Rossart.

First of all, Chelsteds length of term has never been mentioned. Second, what does one see as "long"? Are we speaking only weeks, or months?

- We know that there was a break in fighting between the Battle of the Bells and the Trident, and that the Battle of the Bells was before the double wedding.

Agreed

It is possible to assume that the rebels were also forced to muster new troops after the Battle of the Bells, and we know that Hoster severely punished some of his own bannermen who stuck to the Targaryens during the war (although we do not know if this was before or after the Trident).

It is clear that the troops Hoster led to Stony Sept weren't his full force but most likely only a hastily assembled token force as the Freys, for instance, still didn't show up at the Trident at all. But if we go with Hoster punishing his traitorous vassals before the Trident it is really strange that he did not sent an emissary/an army to the Twins to ensure that the Frey levies join his army or do not attack them from behind.

I don't recall it being stated that Hoster punished those who were "traitorous"... If anything, the rebels were the traitors, and it would seem that Hoster simply fought against those of his vassels who choose to support House Targaryen instead of House Tully.

I simply don't see much potential for battles between the rebels and the loyalists between the Battle of the Bells and the Trident besides those campaigns to punish some Riverlords. However, I imagine that the front line was somewhere in the Riverlands as the Mootons, Darrys, and Whents were backing the Targaryens which seems to have been unlikely if the rebels had been in control of all the Riverlands prior to the Trident.

But Ned might have returned north to muster some more men or accompany them down the causeway, and Jon Arryn may have done the same in the Vale. Perhaps both then met with Hoster and Robert at some other castle and never returned to Riverrun before the Trident but I don't think we can extend this time period to more than 2-3 months. Everything would be much easier if the Battle of the Bells had occurred after the double wedding as I had originally assumed.

The only Kingdom to completely support the rebels was the North, so yeah, in the riverlands, and most likely in the Vale as well, there was still some fighting going on. Which, in combination with assembling multiple armies, can easily have taken quite some time.. They could only travel by horse, or on foot, after all.

That we don´t know yet of any bigger fights that occured between the Battle of the Bells and the Trident, doesn´t mean that there weren´t any fights (big or small).

As to Jon's birth:

We don't have an exact date of birth. In fact, you know that I'm not even sure whether Jon was already born when Ned arrived at that tower or whether his arrival triggered the birth. If we go with Ned being severely hurt during the fighting he might not have been able to speak with Lyanna for quite some time during which her health might also have severely declined. After all, Howland Reed could have both killed Ser Arthur Dayne as well as tended to Ned's wounds afterwards - or only the latter - as it is not really clear what he did, exactly (although I think he poisoned Ser Arthur if he killed him).

But considering that Lyanna and Rhaegar were together for quite some time it is actually possibly that Jon was already born when Rhaegar left - if we go with Rhaegar impregnating Lyanna on the very day he took her - as a pregnancy usually ends after nine months and if there were 2-3 months between the abduction and the outbreak of the fighting Rhaegar might still have been at the tower when the child was born. However, the age difference could have been distorted if Ned kept Jon and Robb apart for quite a time after their births. We know that Jon was already at Winterfell when Cat arrived there, and the impression I get is that Ned did not travel with him.

Targaryen children usually tend to be more slender and lighter than other (Dany, Egg, etc.) and if Robb was a big and healthy boy and Jon Snow somewhat slower and slower growing people may not have noticed the truth. Catelyn obviously did not, perhaps because she never cared to be around the child while it was an infant?

Ned's official story certainly makes Jon much older than Robb as he has told Robert that he has had his affair with Wylla after he had married Catelyn, possibly only when he went south after the Sack - Robert would have realized it if Ned had hung out with a camp follower before the Trident, and there would have been little time for him before the Sack.

But at this time Rhaegar and Lyanna had already been permanently separated which effectively makes Jon Snow about 8-9 months older than he actually is as he would have been 'officially conceived' by Ned around the time Lyanna's child was born the latest or shortly before that date.

I guess we simply have to buy that this somehow worked. Just as we have to buy that Jon Connington somehow mistook a two-year-old for 4-5-year-old if we go with the assumption that Aegon was only conceived after the Sack as Tyrion's guess about his age (15-16) might indicate.

We have only a few description of Targaryen children, but quite a few are described as robust and strapping.. So I don't think we can assume that all Targaryen children are smaller than the average child.

That Robert doesn't know anything about Jon's mother, would suggest that Robert fought on one side of, say, the riverlands, while Ned fought on another... Far apart enough for Robert to not have seen anything. Catelyn believes that Ned met Jon's mother after their wedding, Robert believes it, Jon believes it, so as far as placing the namedays goes as mentioned in the story, Jon's falls after Robb's in the year. But there is nowhere a quote to be found that Robert believes Ned to have fathered the child after the Sack, I don't know where you get that from?

Making Jon 9 months older than he is, simply because you wish to put the Bells and the Trident closer together, without support by text... I don't see it, or at least, I don't see the quotes, but if you have them somewhere.... We have Rhaenys' age at death, we have Dany's birth, and the fact that the Sack occured some 8,5 months before.. try to see them woven together in the entire main story, and a general picture of a timeline arises..

Tyrion's guess about Aegon's age doesn't mean anything... He guessed Jon Snows age in Game as 12, while it was 14. Judging Aegon's age off by 2 years would fit that pattern perfectly.

[Lord Varys]

Jaime doesn't even recall Chelsted's name at first. That suggests that guy wasn't in office all that long. Anyway, this shows how bad a source Jaime's memory is for pretty much everything as Chelsted was a member of the Small Council and thus at court throughout Jaime's tenure as KG.

The Hoster stuff is mentioned in one of Arya's chapters in ASoS if my memory serves. It may be lords around/near Stony Sept or another place she visits with the brotherhood.

The Vale seems to have been won by the rebels during the original fighting at Gulltown. I doubt that Jon Arryn suffered any disobedience after that nor would it make sense to assume that he took not a good portion of his strength with him when he marched into the Riverlands. I could see him calling additional troops for the final battle but not being forced to fight battles at home after the Battle of the Bells.

My best guess would be that Ned returned north again to bring additional troops down or helped Hoster/Jon raise additional troops. The Vale, parts of the Riverlands, and the North were the only places the rebels could raise new levies as Robert was cut off from the Stormlands and had, most likely, lost most of his army during and before the Battle of the Bells.

[Ser Creighton]

That is true, yet the captain also stopped at Dorne, and still, no news about Ned's death had reached, only Robert's death, and Ned's arrest.

Dany notices she's pregnant on her nameday, but that means that she has been pregnant for a while by then, due to the swelling of her belly being noticable. And Rhaego does appear to have been a full term.. She told Mirri herself that her time was near.

I really don't get how you reach December for Dany's nameday..? Or March for Jon's, as we can practically count the months that pass minimally in Game before Jon mentions his nameday has passed (Robert stays a month at Winterfell, Jon takes some 24 days to get to the Wall, and Robert's journey to Winterfelll seems to have taken some 1,5 months, judging from the time described on the way back, and a fortnight passed between Joffrey;s nameday and Jon Arryn's death, and Benjen will have been gone at least 18 days, as it would have taken the rangers he had been looking for 9 days to get back to CB, and they already covered at least that distance once already).

And then I'm not even speaking about the obvious time that passes in the year before Joffrey's nameday, or the time that passes in between that hasn't been specifically mentioned.

Where am I getting December? I aready told you, but i'll explain in a minute. What I am wondering is what month are using for the basis of all these birthdays? You are counting Days and estimating, and that's all good, been can be a bit dangerous as Martin himself has suggested people don't do that.

Yes I agree Dany was pregnant and begining to show on her 14th name day. So from that moment, to about the time of the Red Comet, is about 6 months. Generally new mothers begin to show around 12 weeks. Can you tell me what month this occured in? Her 14th name day?

Chapter 23 Thrones. Her 14th name Day. First starting to show, Farside of the Dothraki sea.

Thrones 36, Vaes Dothrak arrival, she now has a big belly.

Thrones 54, 2 Days before she leaves Vaes Dothrak, new from Westeros, and the attempt on her life. At this time the letter to save Dany from Varys did not know her brother was dead yet as he was also targeted. 6 months from now she will be in Qarth.

Thrones 72, the Red Comet, and the changing of the seasons, summer to fall.

Kings 12, Vaes Tollorro, her hair is coming back, and she says she is 14.

Kings 27, Qarth she is 15 and has been there for 1 day. 1 year or more has passed since her 14th name day and 6 months hass past since she left Vaes Dothrak.

Now what I asked, I didn't say I asked, is does Martin use the Solstice and Equinoxes for the changing of the seasons. Even though a season is years long, when they change does he still use the solstices and equinoxes.

The reason being is they work well with Raegars kids, and the false spring, and the changing of the year. Which is why I used them as the first example. How I got december for Dany is that the red comet would of been the Fall equinox in late September. 3 months later she would be 15 in December and a cople week later in Qarth, and yes the year would of changed. Dany was born 9 months after the sack, and Jon roughly around the sack of KL. So if she was born in December Jon would be in March. At some point towards the end of the rebellion didn't spring arrive?

This was all only predicated on the solstices and th equinoxes. The reason I thought Jon worked well on the Spring Eqinox is the symbolism, the spring Equinox is which happens in March, is when the Sun and Moon are in balance.

But like I said before I don't know if spring started in January because things are so messed up wih the seasons. It was basically does a season start at any Date or does it sill fall on the solctice or equinox? All of this was predicated on when the season change, which is what I asked you about. It was a question, not a statement. Like you are counting Days but I am not sure what month you started in with some of the dates.

ETA: I also use the comet as a point of reference to dates and locations. When the Comet is high in the sky and visible by Day, Stannis is at Dragonstone and the Old Maester dies, Jon is Marching with Mormont north of the wall, Dany is marching through the Red Waste, and Bran gets a letter about the death of Ned.

[Lord BitterRaven]

Just to play devil's advocate but I think the Starks' grey eyes is usually the dark grey looking black type. Arya and Ned are both described as having dark grey eyes.

No worries, but if they all had the same dark looking grey eyes then why does Martin go out of his way to describe Jon's eyes as being almost black and then describe Ned's, Arya's, and Lyanna's eyes as grey (or blue grey). I'm just saying that if you check out a color chart and combine light grey with the dark indigo eyes of Rhaegar you get a color that borders on black. And it's not as if this is the foundation of why I think R+L=J is true, but it's still kinda cool to think about.

[Nami]

I think it was pre planned too. One of the clues in the very beginning of AGOT is Jon's eye color. They're described as being so grey they bordered on black. Lyanna's eyes are described as being grey while Rhaegars are a dark indigo. And if you combine those two colors you get a charcoal color. Little things like that fit together too nicely to be accidental.

Apparently Rhaegar's eyes were really dark. JonCon mentioned and some Targs eyes are purple-ish eyes so dark that they seem black depending on the light. Egg's eyes, for instance. Dunk mentions how they seem black because of the light.

Could be that Jon's eyes are a mix of Lyanna's grey eyes with Rhaegar's dark ones.

[The Wolves]

No worries, but if they all had the same dark looking grey eyes then why does Martin go out of his way to describe Jon's eyes as being almost black and then describe Ned's, Arya's, and Lyanna's eyes as grey (or blue grey). I'm just saying that if you check out a color chart and combine light grey with the dark indigo eyes of Rhaegar you get a color that borders on black. And it's not as if this is the foundation of why I think R+L=J is true, but it's still kinda cool to think about.

Martin describes Arya eyes as "dark eyes like his" when comparing Jon and Arya.

You're probably right but I'm just saying I think Jon's eye color is the official Stark grey a dark grey and Ned, Jon, Arya, Brandon are all described as having dark grey eyes.

[SFDanny]

Where am I getting December? I aready told you, but i'll explain in a minute. What I am wondering is what month are using for the basis of all these birthdays? You are counting Days and estimating, and that's all good, been can be a bit dangerous as Martin himself has suggested people don't do that.

Yes I agree Dany was pregnant and begining to show on her 14th name day. So from that moment, to about the time of the Red Comet, is about 6 months. Generally new mothers begin to show around 12 weeks. Can you tell me what month this occured in? Her 14th name day?

Chapter 23 Thrones. Her 14th name Day. First starting to show, Farside of the Dothraki sea.

Thrones 36, Vaes Dothrak arrival, she now has a big belly.

Thrones 54, 2 Days before she leaves Vaes Dothrak, new from Westeros, and the attempt on her life. At this time the letter to save Dany from Varys did not know her brother was dead yet as he was also targeted. 6 months from now she will be in Qarth.

Thrones 72, the Red Comet, and the changing of the seasons, summer to fall.

Kings 12, Vaes Tollorro, her hair is coming back, and she says she is 14.

Kings 27, Qarth she is 15 and has been there for 1 day. 1 year or more has passed since her 14th name day and 6 months hass past since she left Vaes Dothrak.

Now what I asked, I didn't say I asked, is does Martin use the Solstice and Equinoxes for the changing of the seasons. Even though a season is years long, when they change does he still use the solstices and equinoxes.

The reason being is they work well with Raegars kids, and the false spring, and the changing of the year. Which is why I used them as the first example. How I got december for Dany is that the red comet would of been the Fall equinox in late September. 3 months later she would be 15 in December and a cople week later in Qarth, and yes the year would of changed. Dany was born 9 months after the sack, and Jon roughly around the sack of KL. So if she was born in December Jon would be in March. At some point towards the end of the rebellion didn't spring arrive?

This was all only predicated on the solstices and th equinoxes. The reason I thought Jon worked well on the Spring Eqinox is the symbolism, the spring Equinox is which happens in March, is when the Sun and Moon are in balance.

But like I said before I don't know if spring started in January because things are so messed up wih the seasons. It was basically does a season start at any Date or does it sill fall on the solctice or equinox? All of this was predicated on when the season change, which is what I asked you about. It was a question, not a statement. Like you are counting Days but I am not sure what month you started in with some of the dates.

ETA: I also use the comet as a point of reference to dates and locations. When the Comet is high in the sky and visible by Day, Stannis is at Dragonstone and the Old Maester dies, Jon is Marching with Mormont north of the wall, Dany is marching through the Red Waste, and Bran gets a letter about the death of Ned.

Dany is born in 284 and the sack takes place in 283. The latest in the year she can be born by these two facts alone is around the end of September. Meaning a December 31st 283 date of the sack would put Daenerys's birth in September the following year. The earliest she could be born, again by these two facts alone, is early January 284; which would put the sack in late March 283. That's the swing you have to start with, and it eliminates a December name day for Daenerys.

You are right about her pregnancy, but the comet arrives the day of the dragons birth in 299. So the six months since her 14th name day likely puts her fourteenth name day around mid year 298 and Jon's name day around the October/November range (eight or nine months difference.) This fits within the time frame for Robb's name day as well. Which is what we would expect. Note that these are all estimates, not exact dates. For example, the three months you give for the time in which others notice she is pregnant could certainly be earlier, and not much later.

Also the comet first appears in the books in Bran's chapter when the raven arrives about Ned's death and Rickon has already turned four - Luwin gives him four pieces of dragon glass because he is four. We know he turns four in 299, so it is already 299 when that chapter takes place, and the chapter is also likely on the same day of the dragons birth. Rickon's name day is the earliest in the year of any character's name day we know of based on the timing of the comets arrival. All the rest of the events you write of take place later in 299. All of which means a September/early October date for the sack.

[MtnLion]

Ser Creighton, perhaps a better question would be, "How long does each season last?" Does Autumn last two or three years? Does Spring last an equal amount? Indeed I believe that Daenerys' nameday is in the June, July, August area, but that could have been spring, summer, autumn, or winter; for all we know. I am fairly certain that King's Landing was sacked near the end of a year, October, November time frame; and that Jon's nameday occurs within two weeks to either side.

[Lord Varys]

Is there any confirmation that AGoT begins in the beginning of the year? We know that the book lasts about a year, but nobody has said that Joff's nameday was around the same time or near the wedding day which also happened to be the first day of the new year.

[MoIaF]

Dany was born in the Summer, although that could have fallen at any time during the year as the season can last for years.

“She had been born on Dragonstone nine moons after their flight, while a raging summer storm threatened to rip the island fastness apart. They said that storm was terrible . The Targaryen fleet was smashed while it lay at anchor, and huge stone blocks were ripped from the parapets and sent hurtling into the wild waters of the narrow sea. Her mother had died birthing her, and for that her brother Viserys had never forgiven her."

Also the comet first appears in the books in Bran's chapter when the raven arrives about Ned's death and Rickon has already turned four - Luwin gives him four pieces of dragon glass because he is four. We know he turns four in 299, so it is already 299 when that chapter takes place, and the chapter is also likely on the same day of the dragons birth. Rickon's name day is the earliest in the year of any character's name day we know of based on the timing of the comets arrival. All the rest of the events you write of take place later in 299. All of which means a September/early October date for the sack.

Dany's chapters are ahead of everyone's in AGOT so she saw the comment first, even though it was first mentioned in Bran's chapter.

[SFDanny]

Dany was born in the Summer, although that could have fallen at any time during the year as the season can last for years.

“She had been born on Dragonstone nine moons after their flight, while a raging summer storm threatened to rip the island fastness apart. They said that storm was terrible . The Targaryen fleet was smashed while it lay at anchor, and huge stone blocks were ripped from the parapets and sent hurtling into the wild waters of the narrow sea. Her mother had died birthing her, and for that her brother Viserys had never forgiven her."

Dany's chapters are ahead of everyone's in AGOT so she saw the comment first, even though it was first mentioned in Bran's chapter.

I'd argue it's likely Maester Luwin sees it the same day Daenerys sees the comet for the first time. They are thousands of miles to the west of Daenerys, who sees the comet as the first star of the evening, and Luwin sees the comet "low in the morning sky." It tells me they are close to 12 hours different in what we would call time zones, but looking at the same event. I think it's one of the clues Martin leaves for us to tie the two timelines together.

And I agree with you about the Daenerys quote. Summer lasts years so it maybe only a reference to the summer season having come by the time of Daenerys's birth, not that she was born in mid-year. That also maybe the case, but the quote doesn't necessarily show it.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Lord Varys,

That depends on what you mean by 'beginning of AGoT'.. The prologue? Using info from the prologue and from Sansa chapters later on, we can determine that the prologue takes place in 297 AC. Or do you mean the main storyline in Westeros, starting with Bran I? Due to the ages mentioned there (Bran being seven, Jon and Robb being fourteen), we can determine that chapter takes place in 298 AC. Danny's storyline is a bit more vague, when we speak of the passage of time in those first two chapters. We know for a certainty that we have reached 298 AC there when Dany turns 14, and the amount of distance travelled in between chapter two and three would suggest that chapter two had a good chance of having taken place in 298 AC as well, though 297 AC is also a possibility. For her first chapter, it is hard to tell.

We can see in multiple storylines when we have reached 299 AC.. Catelyn due to the ages of Little and Big Walder at the Twins, Bran due to Rickons age, Dany due to the comet, which can be linked to the chapter concerning Rickons age. We know that Ned dies in 299 AC as well, according to Catelyn, and thus, we can see that the last Arya chapter certainly takes place in 299 AC as well. Sansa, taking place after Neds death, thus as well.

The chapter where Robert dies marks the last chapter, IIRC, from the KL storyline where we can state with certainty that the tale takes place in 298 AC, leaving only few chapters in between that could be either way.. the Sansa chapter where Barristan is fired, for example, is a question mark in this regard. Could be 298, could be 299..

Ser Creighton,

I simply use what is stated in the text, for Jons trip to the Wall (more than 18 days,less than 1 month), and all the passages of time identified in either the books or the app for the journey south, and fill those up with comparisons of the distance as shown on the lands of ice and fire maps. And I assume that Roberts journey to Winterfell took him a little less time than the journey south did, for various reasons.

The season at Rebellions end is not mentioned, and SFDanny explained why Dany can't have been born in December.

Also take note that the comet is visible for quite some time, first at night, then also during the day, for quite a few weeks perhaps even..

I use Rhaenys' birth and Robbs, and the general timeline you get from analysing the main series timeline.

[Ser Creighton]

Lord Varys,

That depends on what you mean by 'beginning of AGoT'.. The prologue? Using info from the prologue and from Sansa chapters later on, we can determine that the prologue takes place in 297 AC. Or do you mean the main storyline in Westeros, starting with Bran I? Due to the ages mentioned there (Bran being seven, Jon and Robb being fourteen), we can determine that chapter takes place in 298 AC. Danny's storyline is a bit more vague, when we speak of the passage of time in those first two chapters. We know for a certainty that we have reached 298 AC there when Dany turns 14, and the amount of distance travelled in between chapter two and three would suggest that chapter two had a good chance of having taken place in 298 AC as well, though 297 AC is also a possibility. For her first chapter, it is hard to tell.

We can see in multiple storylines when we have reached 299 AC.. Catelyn due to the ages of Little and Big Walder at the Twins, Bran due to Rickons age, Dany due to the comet, which can be linked to the chapter concerning Rickons age. We know that Ned dies in 299 AC as well, according to Catelyn, and thus, we can see that the last Arya chapter certainly takes place in 299 AC as well. Sansa, taking place after Neds death, thus as well.

The chapter where Robert dies marks the last chapter, IIRC, from the KL storyline where we can state with certainty that the tale takes place in 298 AC, leaving only few chapters in between that could be either way.. the Sansa chapter where Barristan is fired, for example, is a question mark in this regard. Could be 298, could be 299..

Ser Creighton,

I simply use what is stated in the text, for Jons trip to the Wall (more than 18 days,less than 1 month), and all the passages of time identified in either the books or the app for the journey south, and fill those up with comparisons of the distance as shown on the lands of ice and fire maps. And I assume that Roberts journey to Winterfell took him a little less time than the journey south did, for various reasons.

The season at Rebellions end is not mentioned, and SFDanny explained why Dany can't have been born in December.

Also take note that the comet is visible for quite some time, first at night, then also during the day, for quite a few weeks perhaps even..

I use Rhaenys' birth and Robbs, and the general timeline you get from analysing the main series timeline.

Yeah I read what SF said but the comet first actually appears in time wise in the last chapter, Dany's chapter at that point is actually behind Bran's. And we don't know how long it was in the sky at that point. If Rick had turned 4, this could very well be the changing of a year. Though a 12 week comet would be pretty odd. But if the Comet does appear near years end as we see it is now 299 for Rickon. Then it's still a question, but the month, I mean that comet could not have been in the sky for 6 months, I agree it was up their for awhile, her entire time in the red waste, but it doesn't say when it vanished either, at least not that I recall.

Do you have like a list fo dates I can look at. Oh never mind I am looking at your sig I will check there. But do you get what I am saying about the confusion between like years, months and seasons? I do know it went into fall when the comet showed up. That is confirmed, but something seems off to me, that's all and I sure you understand how screwy it can be with trying to figure it out given your project. Which I am going to look at to get a better feel for this.

I do wonder what the heck happened to spring if Dany was born in the summer, and Rhaegar vanished in the Winter, it must have been Roberts Rebellion at some point. Which is funny because the War of five kings mostly takes place in the fall.

[SFDanny]

The problem is:

- We know that Jon Connington was fired as Hand after the Battle of the Bellls. We also know that Chelsted didn't serve as Hand all that long - although longer than Rossart.

Catelyn tells us in year 298 that she was married to Ned fifteen years ago - so that means a 283 AC wedding. We know that takes place about the time of the Battle of the Bells - almost certainly right after, but there is contradictory information that could put it right before. We know Robb is conceived during Ned and Catelyn's honeymoon and Robb is born in 283, so for these two facts to be correct - both the honeymoon and the birth to take place in 283 - it means the honeymoon has to take place in the first three months of 283. This puts the Battle of the Bells in that time frame as well. Best estimates for when the sack takes place is early fall 283 - we can go into why if you like. Which means Chelsted, who is named Hand after Connington is removed after the Battle of the Bells and Lord Chelsted dies sometime close to the Battle of the Trident, is Hand for something like seven to nine months - depending largely on how long Aerys takes to to name him Hand after removing Connington. It should be noted Chelsted already sits on the small council as Master of Coin, so there is no time lag in summoning him to King's Landing to take up the office. No exact figures here, but we are talking many months tenure as Hand, not a short period of weeks.

Ned's official story certainly makes Jon much older than Robb as he has told Robert that he has had his affair with Wylla after he had married Catelyn, possibly only when he went south after the Sack - Robert would have realized it if Ned had hung out with a camp follower before the Trident, and there would have been little time for him before the Sack.

Ned's official story makes Jon younger than Robb. Ned tells Robert he had left Catelyn pregnant when he dishonored her with Wylla. His story tells Robert Jon is conceived after Robb, not before. That is the same thing Catelyn believes. Jon maybe a little older than Robb in reality, but the story he tells Robert and Catelyn, and the timeline of Robb's and Jon's name day celebrations in the series, all point to Robb being older.

[Lord Varys]

The point of my question whether 298 AC is actually the beginning of AGoT aims at the question that we, to my knowledge, only know that AGoT covers about a year but don't know if the book actually begins in the beginning (that is in the first month/week) of 298. Couldn't it set in late in 297 AC or somewhere in the first half of 298 AC?

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

The point of my question whether 298 AC is actually the beginning of AGoT aims at the question that we, to my knowledge, only know that AGoT covers about a year but don't know if the book actually begins in the beginning (that is in the first month/week) of 298. Couldn't it set in late in 297 AC or somewhere in the first half of 298 AC?

I showed above why the story, besides the prologue and possibly the first two Dany POVs, starts in 298 AC. As to where in the year, we can't actually pin down a specific day in a specific month, but from all that happens in between the first known chapter in 298 and the last, we can reasonably assume that half a year is too little time to have all of that take place.

Early 298 AC for Jon Arryns death seems quite clear to me, somewhere in the second month, perhaps..

[Mithras]

Is there anything to suggest how close was Rhaego to normal delivery at that dramatic day? Was Rhaego premature?