Battle of the Stormlands'

[Mourneblade]

Well, Mace did say that he would deal with it after his daughter's trial, but he's a doofus. He'll probably send Randyl Tarly who will join up with Aegon instead, while he takes an army back to deal with the Ironborn after Garland unfortunately dies with the army he is trying to raise (fresh levies).

Tarly does not seem the Turncloak type....

[Ziester]

Mace's wife is a Hightower, so unless the Tyrells decide to switch and marry margaery to Aegon then Hightower isn't an ally. And as you said Redwyne are friends and married into the Tyrells. Also Garlan is married to some fossoway, not sure what kind if power they hold but their also a bannerman to the Tyrells.

So there would be very few alliances Aegon could make in the reach. His only potential ones are Dorne and the crownlands, who are either with Stannis or have lost the majority of their power at Blackwater.

She's a Hightower but Olenna doesn't like her. And it's not Mace who really runs the family. The ties are weak.

“Hush, Alerie, don’t take that tone with me. And don’t call me Mother. If I’d given birth to you, I’m sure I’d remember. I’m only to blame for your husband, the lord oaf of Highgarden.”

[Balerion the kitten]

She's a Hightower but Olenna doesn't like her. And it's not Mace who really runs the family.

Hush, Alerie, dont take that tone with me. And dont call me Mother. If Id given birth to you, Im sure Id remember. Im only to blame for your husband, the lord oaf of Highgarden.

True, but she's the mother to children that Olenna likes.

Willas, Garlan, Margaery and Loras are all half Hightower.

Edit- And that's what cements an alliance, the children.

[TheHeirToDorne]

The Hightowers might be another ally. They have to get involved somehow I feel, and pitting the two most powerful houses (Tyrell and Hightower) in the Reach against eachother would be interesting. Redwynes would likely side with the Tyrells no matter what. Paxter Redwyne is Mace Tyrells closest friend I recall, married to Tyrells sister and his own cousin. Tarly and Rowan is unknown. Lord Mathis Rowan might be killed when Aegon takes Storm's End... but he might also be captured and convinced to turn his cloak. Randyll Tarly seem like a loyal soldier so I'm not sure he would turn his cloak that easily. He's already gearing up to fight Aegon besides, at least according to Arianne II.

What's also interesting about the Hightowers is that they don't take up swords against Targaryens - so they might not declare for Aegon VI, but they likely would not fight for the Tyrells either.

[mbuehner]

I dont think the Tyrell army is going anywhere until Margaery is released. The Stormlands are the traditional rival of the Reach, I dont see Tarley rushing to their aid to do the Lannisters a favor. Without the army in KL, the Tyrells lose all their leverage over the King and Kingdom. They would be foolish to rush of to solve somebody elses problem.

[The Holy Goat]

@mbuehner

A Tyrell army is already on the way to face Aegon and the Golden Company.

We don't know if the host marching south is all of the massive host at King's Landing or just a part, but since Randyll Tarly is the commander we can assume that Mace remains at King's Landing. It's also unlikely that Mace would send his entire force south as long as the Faith MIlitant has a strong presence in the capital - so we can assume that Mace didn't send his entire 40,000 strong host.

We also don't know if the trials against Margaery and Cersei are over with yet, but in all likelyhood the trials are finished already (Mace said in ADWD that he wouldn't bestir himself until his daughter was safe).

[John Suburbs]

I'll bet you 10-1 that if the ironmen start to threaten Highgarden, that is where the Tyrell army will go.

[The Holy Goat]

There is already a massive army poised to deal with the Ironmen. ~35,000 men, led by Garlan Tyrell. Paxter Redwyne and his 200 warships are also on their way, and the HIghtowers are recruiting men and building ships as if obsessed, with the intention of hiring more from Lys. The Tyrell force at King's Öanding does not need to go to the Reach to deal the Ironmen.

Besides, Arianne II confirms that the Tyrell army (or parts of it, rather) stationed in King's Landing is marching south against the Golden Company. I don't really see what reason there is for a "bet" when it's already confirmed and happening...

[John Suburbs]

But the ironmen are not close to Highgarden yet. And Garlen has half the Tyrell strength that was at KL, so that could be as high as 35k, but it could be less, depending on how many men are with Mace and Tarley and how many they had at the outset. I've seen estimates from 40k to over 100k.

If Highgarden is even close to falling to the ironmen, you'll see Mace and Co. split for the Reach at a moment's notice, leaving Storms End wide open for fAegon and the GC.

But I am not convinced that Euron will reach for Highgarden just yet. It's kind of like Theon and Winterfell: even if he could take it, he wouldn't be able to hold it for long without a massive commitment of men and ships. I think he's planning something for the Redwyne fleet first, and then taking Oldtown. And by then, whatever plan he has of getting the dragons away from Dany should come to fruition.

[The Holy Goat]

But the ironmen are not close to Highgarden yet. And Garlen has half the Tyrell strength that was at KL, so that could be as high as 35k, but it could be less, depending on how many men are with Mace and Tarley and how many they had at the outset. I've seen estimates from 40k to over 100k.

If Highgarden is even close to falling to the ironmen, you'll see Mace and Co. split for the Reach at a moment's notice, leaving Storms End wide open for fAegon and the GC.

But I am not convinced that Euron will reach for Highgarden just yet. It's kind of like Theon and Winterfell: even if he could take it, he wouldn't be able to hold it for long without a massive commitment of men and ships. I think he's planning something for the Redwyne fleet first, and then taking Oldtown. And by then, whatever plan he has of getting the dragons away from Dany should come to fruition.

Euron has made the Shield Islands his base. The Shield Islands lies just west of where the Mander reaches the ocean. And the Mander leads straight up towards Highgarden. Some of Euron's ships has already gone up the river (The Red Oarsman did when tricking the Shield Islands fleet). So Highgarden is clearly within range of Euron's fleet - yet even so Mace has not bestirred himself. I wager he trusts his sons and bannermen to deal with the Ironborn while he makes sure Margaery's trial goes well and the Faith - and the Golden Company - doesn't threathen her well-being. There's also the fact that his favorite son Loras is at Dragonstone, wounded.

Tyrion estimated the Tyrell force at King's Landing to be between 50,000 and 70,000, without the force Randyll Tarly took north to Duskendale. So Garlan has 25,000 men at the very least, though I suspect it is larger, based on the quotes of other characters.

I don't really see what point you are trying to make here. By the time of the second Arianne chapter in TWOW, Aegon has already captured Stomr's End, and an army under Randyll Tarly is on it's way. JonCon and Golden Company in are preparing to march out and meet the approaching army in response. That much is confirmed.

Euron definitly has his eyes set on Oldtown, though I suspect you are correct about him needing to deal with Paxter Redwyne first.

[John Suburbs]

Yes, and when Tarly gets to Storm's End, he's going to do what everyone else does: he can't take it by force, so he'll have to settle in for a long siege, tying up the other 25-35k Tyrell army. If Euron sails on Highgarden -- a big if -- he could very well be there before Garlen arrives overland. At the very least, you have a swarm of ironmen who floated their way upriver vs. an army of men who've just made a forced march from KL, so my money is on the ironmen -- who also have command of the water BTW and can maneuver and flank an army of horse and foot with little trouble.

In that case, Mace/Tarley would have no choice but to leave Storms End and march on Highgarden, but I suspect Tarley, at least, would urge Mace to abandon SE right away -- otherwise they end up investing HG with only half an army. Unless, of course, the ironmen just sack the place and leave, then the whole equation changes.

The point is, if HG is threatened, Mace will have to give up SE to protect his own seat. And in that case, there is nothing to stop fAegon from marching on KL.

But I'm not even sure he'll do that. What better way to show the realm that you are the rightful king than to rid the land of ironborn raiders? I can easily see JC cutting a deal with Mace to support him against the IT, then jointly deposing Tommen and Cersie and marrying Margy --who has yet to consumate a marriage -- to fAegon.

But the whole situation in that part of the realm is so muddled that I, and probably everyone else, is completely wrong as to what happens next.

Such madness! And with winter coming!

[aryagonnakill#2]

The Ironborn have to score a win against the Reach, it is literally the only way to move the story forward. Garlan trying to retake the shields and having the Ironborn come down on him in the water is 1 possible option there. Another is a storm destroying the Redwyn fleet, or Lord Hightower using magic and having it go horribly wrong. Either way, Highgarden, Oldtown, Garlan, something or someone is going to fall to the Ironborn, if not, they were never a credible threat and have been built up for no reason.

[The Holy Goat]

Yes, and when Tarly gets to Storm's End, he's going to do what everyone else does: he can't take it by force, so he'll have to settle in for a long siege, tying up the other 25-35k Tyrell army. If Euron sails on Highgarden -- a big if -- he could very well be there before Garlen arrives overland. At the very least, you have a swarm of ironmen who floated their way upriver vs. an army of men who've just made a forced march from KL, so my money is on the ironmen -- who also have command of the water BTW and can maneuver and flank an army of horse and foot with little trouble.

In that case, Mace/Tarley would have no choice but to leave Storms End and march on Highgarden, but I suspect Tarley, at least, would urge Mace to abandon SE right away -- otherwise they end up investing HG with only half an army. Unless, of course, the ironmen just sack the place and leave, then the whole equation changes.

The point is, if HG is threatened, Mace will have to give up SE to protect his own seat. And in that case, there is nothing to stop fAegon from marching on KL.

But I'm not even sure he'll do that. What better way to show the realm that you are the rightful king than to rid the land of ironborn raiders? I can easily see JC cutting a deal with Mace to support him against the IT, then jointly deposing Tommen and Cersie and marrying Margy --who has yet to consumate a marriage -- to fAegon.

But the whole situation in that part of the realm is so muddled that I, and probably everyone else, is completely wrong as to what happens next.

Such madness! And with winter coming!

But Jon Connington and the Golden COmpany are not planning to stay behind the walls of Stomr's End. They are marching out to face him in the field. That much is already confirmed. Also, Euron is in control of some 10,000-15,000 men. Men who will be more accustomed to fighting at sea rather than facing cavalry on land. Besides, it's unlikely that Garlan and Willas (both of whom are seemingly levelheaded individuals) would leave their seat unguarded when they know a PIrate Lord is seated on the Shield Islands. SO I really don't think the Ironmen can take out the Tyrell forces without some really nifty tricks.

But the Tyrell forces wouldn't be besieging Storm's End. They would either be defeated or victoriius after a battle with the Golden Company. Or prehaps they have turned to Aegon's side. Who knows. EIther way, a long siege is not in store for us, not if Arianne II can be believed.

Highgarden is already threatened, yet Mace Tyrell has no bestirred himself.

That's a possibility, to be sure... but whu would Mace abandon the Lannisters? As far as he knows, Aegon is a pretender with nothing but the Golden Company at his back, while the Lannister-Tyrell alliance is in control of all of Westeros barring the Iron Islands, and some parts of the North, the Riverlands, and the Stormlands. Not to mention that Mace has his daughter married to the King on the Iron Throne - a young, impressionate king who can be easily swayed by his graceful and persuasive daughter. I fail to see what deal JonCOn could make with Mace that is better than what he already has.

Probably.

[John Suburbs]

Your certain JC is riding out to do battle? If he does, he's the biggest idiot in the book and not even worth discussing because he won't be around much longer. Why face fresh forces in the field when you can watch them batter their heads bloody on your castle walls first? Even if he wins, he is guaranteeing maximum casualties to his own troops, which is not a very good way to build trust with a bunch of sellswords. I suspect something else is afoot. JC doesn't want to fight the Targ loyalists, he wants to unite them.

And are you telling me that JC has completely abandoned SE? Hasn't even left a footman to close the gate? Stannis held it for over a year with a skeleton force.

The only way there won't be a siege at SE is if Mace and JC come to terms. How would JC do that? First, he would present Aegon as the rightful heir to the IT, the son of the prince that Mace himself swore fealty to. He would then offer to ride with Mace directly to Highgarden and then even Oldtown if necessary to repel the ironmen. He might even do it undercover so as not to arouse suspicion in the capital. When the ironmen have been dealt with, Connington sends a bird to SE telling the castellan to open the gates to whatever piece of the Tyrell army is stationed outside.

That way, Mace returns to the capital a conquering hero with a victorious army at his back, and JC and the entire Golden Company walk into Kings Landing with nary a Lannister soldier in sight.

And as a side note, nothing in Arianne II has been confirmed. All we have is hearsay of what people think they heard. And even then, Arianne is told about JC's movements by the master in Griffins Roost. We have no idea if any of it is true.

[The Holy Goat]

Your certain JC is riding out to do battle? If he does, he's the biggest idiot in the book and not even worth discussing because he won't be around much longer. Why face fresh forces in the field when you can watch them batter their heads bloody on your castle walls first? Even if he wins, he is guaranteeing maximum casualties to his own troops, which is not a very good way to build trust with a bunch of sellswords. I suspect something else is afoot. JC doesn't want to fight the Targ loyalists, he wants to unite them.

And are you telling me that JC has completely abandoned SE? Hasn't even left a footman to close the gate? Stannis held it for over a year with a skeleton force.

The only way there won't be a siege at SE is if Mace and JC come to terms. How would JC do that? First, he would present Aegon as the rightful heir to the IT, the son of the prince that Mace himself swore fealty to. He would then offer to ride with Mace directly to Highgarden and then even Oldtown if necessary to repel the ironmen. He might even do it undercover so as not to arouse suspicion in the capital. When the ironmen have been dealt with, Connington sends a bird to SE telling the castellan to open the gates to whatever piece of the Tyrell army is stationed outside.

That way, Mace returns to the capital a conquering hero with a victorious army at his back, and JC and the entire Golden Company walk into Kings Landing with nary a Lannister soldier in sight.

And as a side note, nothing in Arianne II has been confirmed. All we have is hearsay of what people think they heard. And even then, Arianne is told about JC's movements by the master in Griffins Roost. We have no idea if any of it is true.

What we know is that the Golden Company means to face the oncoming army in the field, not from behind the walls of Storm's End. Considering that the Golden COmpany is a force of 10,000 men, all well-trained, well-armed, disciplined, with elephants, and led by some very competent men, I wouldn't put it past them to defeat the oncoming army. It's also never stated how large the oncoming army is. Considering the recent events in King's Landing, and the fact that Randyll is in charge, not Mace, I'd say that it's not the entire Tyrell force, but a part of it.

You should also be made aware of the fact that sieges are a bad thing. A very bad thing when the defending force is 10,000 men. In the past, the main reason why sieges a broke is because the defenders began fighting amongst themselves. 10,000 trained soldiers forced to sit on their arses, in a cramped space, with a diminishing food supply, not knowing what goes on in the rest of the region, all while the crown might be sending even more forces to supply the ones already camped within sight of your walls? That's the recipe for a really fine mutiny you've got there.

And of course JonCon wouldn't be so stupid as to leave no defenders in Storm's End.

The only way there would be a siege at Storm's End is if JonCon is stupid enough to get himself trapped inside the castle. And apperently he won't. Good move. I mean, even if the opposing army is twice the size of the Golden Company, the Golden Company should do fine. Numbers is not the deciding factor, discipline and good commanders are.

Mace in turn would be a complete idiot if he just switched his allegiance to Aegon (a boy usurper with a dubious claim and no supporters bu a force of sellswords) when Mace already has a very firm grip on the throne (as far sa he knows).

We have a summary of the content of Arianne II. From peaople who have heard the chapter being read. Dismissing that as hearsay is folly. Besides, the master at Griffin's Roost is Haldon, the very maester who tought Aegon, one of JonCon's closest advisors so far. Dismissing his words is folly as well.

[John Suburbs]

What we know is that the Golden Company means to face the oncoming army in the field, not from behind the walls of Storm's End. Considering that the Golden COmpany is a force of 10,000 men, all well-trained, well-armed, disciplined, with elephants, and led by some very competent men, I wouldn't put it past them to defeat the oncoming army. It's also never stated how large the oncoming army is. Considering the recent events in King's Landing, and the fact that Randyll is in charge, not Mace, I'd say that it's not the entire Tyrell force, but a part of it.

You should also be made aware of the fact that sieges are a bad thing. A very bad thing when the defending force is 10,000 men. In the past, the main reason why sieges a broke is because the defenders began fighting amongst themselves. 10,000 trained soldiers forced to sit on their arses, in a cramped space, with a diminishing food supply, not knowing what goes on in the rest of the region, all while the crown might be sending even more forces to supply the ones already camped within sight of your walls? That's the recipe for a really fine mutiny you've got there.

And of course JonCon wouldn't be so stupid as to leave no defenders in Storm's End.

The only way there would be a siege at Storm's End is if JonCon is stupid enough to get himself trapped inside the castle. And apperently he won't. Good move. I mean, even if the opposing army is twice the size of the Golden Company, the Golden Company should do fine. Numbers is not the deciding factor, discipline and good commanders are.

Mace in turn would be a complete idiot if he just switched his allegiance to Aegon (a boy usurper with a dubious claim and no supporters bu a force of sellswords) when Mace already has a very firm grip on the throne (as far sa he knows).

We have a summary of the content of Arianne II. From peaople who have heard the chapter being read. Dismissing that as hearsay is folly. Besides, the master at Griffin's Roost is Haldon, the very maester who tought Aegon, one of JonCon's closest advisors so far. Dismissing his words is folly as well.

Are you kidding me? Facing your enemy from atop a 100-foot stone wall is always preferable to facing them in the field. I think we can assume that JonCon is acutely aware of the story of Argilac the Arrogant, the last Storm King, who left Storms End with a 2-1 advantage over Orys Baratheon and lost not just his life to Orys' sword, but then his daughter to Orys' other sword.

As for sieges being terrible things, sure, but so are battles. Remember, the Redwyne fleet is heading to Oldtown, so the seas are relatively clear and the castle can be resupplied from Griffins Roost and elsewhere. They just sailed a dozen shiploads of men, gear and elephants from Volantis with no trouble other than the weather.

Why do I distrust the word of Haldon? First, because he is Haldon and is one of the central players in the fAegon plot. So if anyone is going to lie to the Dornish about what's happening on the ground, it's him. Also, Storms End is more than 7000 years old and has never fallen. So out of the blue, JC shows up and takes it from Stannis' man (Farring? Ferring?)? Possible, but unlikely. Elephants cannot trample stone walls that are 40-feet thick.

And yes, Mace is a complete idiot, but even he knows the Lannisters are done for. Tywin is dead, Kevan is dead, Jaime is gone, Cersei is marginalized. The last of the Lannister army was killed at Dragonstone. And if Mace doesn't get it, Tarley will explain it to him. And if neither of them bite, then JC will say: "OK, we'll have a token battle here on the morrow, and then you can wave hello to my main force at Storm's End for the next two years or more while Oldtown, Highgarden and the rest of the Reach gets plundered."

JonCon has been planning fAegon's return for 17 years. Do you think he's going to risk it all on one battle? As I said, he knows he can't take the IT without support from the major houses. So he's not going to pick a fight with the Targ loyalists, he's going to try to enlist them.

Loyalty also counts in a battle, and if the GC thinks the situation is hopeless, they just might break their contract again.

[aryagonnakill#2]

^ A siege is not preferable if you do not have time or the ability to bring in provisions. 10k men, even 8k assuming some losses and garrisons in other castles eat a ton of food, they could not hold out against a siege for long. Stannis held out precisely because he had a skeleton crew, not in spite of it. The plan is likely to ambush the incoming army in the Kingswood.

[John Suburbs]

Yes, but Stannis also had the Redwyne fleet patrolling off shore. That fleet is now heading to Oldtown so there is no real enemy at sea to contend with. They just sailed a whole fleet of boats with men, arms, food and elephants into Shipbreaker Bay with no trouble. And if they get Aurane Waters on their side...

If the ironmen go for Highgarden -- and again, that is a big if -- It's Mace who doesn't have a lot of time to waste on a siege. He'll have to return to the Reach or forever be known as the fool who let his realm burn just because some dowager queen with no army of her own told him to sit at Storm's End.

[The Holy Goat]

Are you kidding me? Facing your enemy from atop a 100-foot stone wall is always preferable to facing them in the field. I think we can assume that JonCon is acutely aware of the story of Argilac the Arrogant, the last Storm King, who left Storms End with a 2-1 advantage over Orys Baratheon and lost not just his life to Orys' sword, but then his daughter to Orys' other sword.

As for sieges being terrible things, sure, but so are battles. Remember, the Redwyne fleet is heading to Oldtown, so the seas are relatively clear and the castle can be resupplied from Griffins Roost and elsewhere. They just sailed a dozen shiploads of men, gear and elephants from Volantis with no trouble other than the weather.

Why do I distrust the word of Haldon? First, because he is Haldon and is one of the central players in the fAegon plot. So if anyone is going to lie to the Dornish about what's happening on the ground, it's him. Also, Storms End is more than 7000 years old and has never fallen. So out of the blue, JC shows up and takes it from Stannis' man (Farring? Ferring?)? Possible, but unlikely. Elephants cannot trample stone walls that are 40-feet thick.

And yes, Mace is a complete idiot, but even he knows the Lannisters are done for. Tywin is dead, Kevan is dead, Jaime is gone, Cersei is marginalized. The last of the Lannister army was killed at Dragonstone. And if Mace doesn't get it, Tarley will explain it to him. And if neither of them bite, then JC will say: "OK, we'll have a token battle here on the morrow, and then you can wave hello to my main force at Storm's End for the next two years or more while Oldtown, Highgarden and the rest of the Reach gets plundered."

JonCon has been planning fAegon's return for 17 years. Do you think he's going to risk it all on one battle? As I said, he knows he can't take the IT without support from the major houses. So he's not going to pick a fight with the Targ loyalists, he's going to try to enlist them.

Loyalty also counts in a battle, and if the GC thinks the situation is hopeless, they just might break their contract again.

Not when said army is close to 10,000 strong. The stores of food within Storm's End would dwindle rapidly, especially since the castle has already suffered through a long siege, and since the Golden Cmpany likely won't have much time to refill them.

But do they have the boats to do so? The Volantenes are returning to their home city, the Stormlands have never been a mayor seapower. Besides, wiith the mayority of the Golden COmpany trapped within Storm's End, the castles Aegon's forces has captured could easily be surrendered and or captured by the Lannister-Tyrell forces, leaving Storm's End unable to recieve aid.

Blatantly lying to the Dornish contingent would be folly though. There's nothing to gain by doing so and everything to lose. Especially since those "lies" has convinced Arianne that she should go to Storm's End and see for herself what is going on. If all Haldon said were lies, and Storm's End is not taken, the Tyrells are not marching, and JonCon is not marching to meet them in the field, then Aegon's faction would be revealed as a bunch of desperate liars and fools. Why would the Dornish - the faction JonCon puts the most of his faith in - ally with liars and fools? No, there is no reason to suspect Haldon of duplicity. He's arrogant, sarcastic and rather unfriendly, but he's not a lying idiot. Also, the chapter indicates that JonCon took the castle by trickery - my guess is that he arrived, defeated the token force lead by Mathis Rowan, and then pretended to be reinforcement hired by Stannis, thus convincing Gilbert Farring to open the gates to him - similarily to what Ramsay Snow did to Theon during the Battle for Winterfell in ACOK.

The Lannister are done for? I disagree. Tywin and Kevan might be dead, Tyrion exiled, and Cersei imprisoned, but the Lannisters is a large family, and both Jaime and Daven are competent commanders and leaders, as are several of their bannermen, like Forley Prester, Addam Marbrand, Roland Crakehall etc. Also, the Lannister army is far from spent. 2,000 men were sent ot Dragonstone, and 1,000 of them died in the battle - but those 2,000 were only a small part of the 20,000 that Tywin brought to King's Landing. Another ~1,000 was with Jaime in the Riverlands (now likely under the command of Addam Marbrand). The remaining 17,000 of Tywin's army was dismissed and sent home to the Westerlands, but there is no indication that the Lannisters can't call them back to the frontlines if they should need to. Also, another 1,000 was with Daven at Riverrun though it has now split, with some 400 marching with Forley Prester, the other 600 likely joining Jaime's (now Addam's) command. The Lannister are weakened yes, but they are far from done for, and they still have allies in House Frey, House Bolton, House Arryn, House Martell and more.

And mace himself is currently in a perfect positione. With no Lannister capable of telling him what to do, he is now father-in-law to the king, Hand of the King, and likely also Regent. He could lift Tommen up, place him in his lap, and diddle him as much as he wanted and none could tell him to stop. Why would he change his allegiance from the easily controlled and still uunderage Tommen, to the willfull and adult usurper Aegon - especially since Aegon already has Jon Connington as his Hand of the King, thus depriving Mace of the powerful title he covets so much? Doesn't make sense.

Letting his entire force be trapped behind the walls of Storm's End would be a far greater risk.

Except the only time in history the Golden Company has broken their contract was when they broke it in favor of Aegon, to join him in taking Westeros. Besides, what the leaders of the Golden Company wants is a home. Lands, titles, incomes. They might get some of that from Tommen, but nowhere near as much as they would get from Aegon, and the risk is that they won't get anything at all from Tommen and will just get booted off the continent for invading in the first place.

Yes, but Stannis also had the Redwyne fleet patrolling off shore. That fleet is now heading to Oldtown so there is no real enemy at sea to contend with. They just sailed a whole fleet of boats with men, arms, food and elephants into Shipbreaker Bay with no trouble. And if they get Aurane Waters on their side...

If the ironmen go for Highgarden -- and again, that is a big if -- It's Mace who doesn't have a lot of time to waste on a siege. He'll have to return to the Reach or forever be known as the fool who let his realm burn just because some dowager queen with no army of her own told him to sit at Storm's End.

All of the ships from Volantis are returning to Essos though. Their only purpose was to dump the Golden Company in Westeros. And hiring Aurane Waters is a big "if". He's a pirate, and has already proven himself selfish and untrustworthy. It's also dubious wether JonCon will have time to establish dimplomatic relations with this new Lord of the Waters.

Garlan Tyrell, WIllas Tyrell and an army of Reachmen which I estimate outnumbers the Ironmen two-to-one or more stands between Euron and Highgarden though, as does Paxter Redwyne's 200 wargalleys. And there's unlikely to ever be a siege anyway.

[John Suburbs]

All the more reason why I don't think JonCon is marching to do battle against Mace. He's looking to cut a deal. As you said, 10,000 sellswords against 35,000 committed soldiers. That's a fool's errand, even with elephants.

I think when given the choice, Mace will switch sides to support Aegon, rather than cast his lot with an army-less Cersei Lannister. Sure, the Lans could raise another army and call Daven and any other Lannister hiding in the bushes, but Tywin's line has always been the Lannisters, so any coordinated effort on their part will have to wait until the power struggle plays out among the lesser branches. What's in it for Mace? For starters, a grown man as a husband for Margaery, and a Targaryen no less, and the probability of a Tyrell heir to the IT within a year, rather than the five-year time frame with Tommen. Plus you get to rescue your people from the ironmen, rather than twiddle your thumbs outside Storms End while Highgarden, Oldtown, Horn Hill and every other seat in the Reach gets sacked. However bad things get inside Storms End, things across the Reach will be much worse.

By cutting a deal, JonCon can march in secret with Mace and Tarley into the Reach, dispatch the ironmen with the help of the Redwynes, return to KL as part of the victorious army, then simply round up Cersei and Tommen, execute them, and marry Margy to Aegon. The Tyrells don't really like the Lannisters anyway. I'm not saying this is what will happen, but that is what I would do if I were Joncon.

How on earth do you suppose JonCon can establish Aegon as the new king without Tyrell support? Even if he wins an open field battle against Mace -- unlikely given his numerical inferiority and the fact that Mace has a brilliant military strategist in his camp -- his own force will be decimated. How does he take KL if his victorious sellsword army has been cut down from 10k to 5, or 3?