Economic crash happening later this year?

[Ordos]

I'm going to get into a lot of trouble for talking about something I know almost nothing about. I know absolutely NOTHING about the stock market. But I bring this up because economics matter to a lot of people and I prefer to focus on something I DO know much about: politics.

Anyway, what am I talking about? According to a guy called Thom Hartmann (his clips are on Youtube), he predicts there will be a economic crash similar to 2008 and 1929 in 2016. But that even he himself admits that is an optimistic estimate. He estimates 2016 because the forces both in public and private sectors will do all in their power to stop or a least delay it. My father told me he heard from somewhere that October 17th of THIS year is when this crash will happen. I do not take my own Dad and this guy Hartmann as paranoid conspiracy theorists. So I take this prediction very seriously.

Which is why I find it odd very few are talking about this coming crisis. I'll leave the conversation as to how it will or will not happen to others on this forum because I'm a complete idiot when it comes the the economy. I'll be shielded from the worst of this crisis because I'm relatively wealthy. And If this crisis will NOT happen, somebody please slap some sense into this economic illiterate (me)!

But what I want to ask is this: As we watch the world burn with a spike in unemployment, companies going bankrupt and rising poverty, will people turn to extremist reactionary forces or will this be an opportunity to rethink the way we do things and then come up with a more sustainable system? Of course you can make the argument that this is just the inevitable pattern of history and things will recover. However I have two things to say about that; one is that we live on a world of finite resources and second is that I've been told that each crisis get's worse than the previous crisis.

A simpler way of asking my question is: Is this the end of neo-liberal economics and the beginning of something better or much uglier? Needless to say this will be terrible news for incumbent governments all over the world. That's right Obama, your legacy is doomed.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

No link?

[Ordos]

Here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06WOhNgXBZw

[Biter]

Here's a book that Hartmann wrote on the subject:

http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/the-crash-of-2016-thom-hartmann/1115779224?ean=9780446584838

But what I want to ask is this: As we watch the world burn with a spike in unemployment, companies going bankrupt and rising poverty, will people turn to extremist reactionary forces or will this be an opportunity to rethink the way we do things and then come up with a more sustainable system? Of course you can make the argument that this is just the inevitable pattern of history and things will recover. However I have two things to say about that; one is that we live on a world of finite resources and second is that I've been told that each crisis get's worse than the previous crisis.

A simpler way of asking my question is: Is this the end of neo-liberal economics and the beginning of something better or much uglier?

Define worse in this context.

I believe the previous big crashes led to spikes in unemployment and rising poverty, without them actually leading to the end of the economic policies that were in use then (but I might be wrong). Why do you think it would be different this time?

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Ordos,

RT News does not rank highly among the more reliable news sources available to you. You may want to dig a bit harder.

[Ordos]

Ordos,

RT News does not rank highly among the more reliable news sources available to you. You may want to dig a bit harder.

I only listen to his individual opinion and I do not believe that what he says comes right out of the mouth of Vladimir Putin.

My only other source is a conversation I had with my Dad. I asked him what exactly is national debt. He explained the basics and then proceeded to go into a long talk about how things are getting worse and worse. Then he told me a crisis is due on October 17th of this year. I'll ask him his sources next time I see him.

[Bennis of the Brown Shield]

If we look at modern history economic crashes aren't particularly uncommon. IIRC the average time between them is something like 7 years. So since the last one happened in 2008 it would hardly unusual for a new one to happen pretty soon.

[David Selig]

Well, if some random dude says so on Youtube, must be true.

Looking at the description of his book on Amazon doesn't make me confident that he knows what he's talking about.

Thom Hartmann argues that the facade of our once-great United States will soon disintegrate to reveal the rotting core where corporate and billionaire power and greed have replaced democratic infrastructure and governance.

Corporations and billionaires have always ruled the US, so nothing has changed.

Our once-enlightened political and economic systems have been manipulated to ensure the success of only a fraction of the population at the expense of the rest of us.

Yeah, that's such a massive change...oh, wait. That's always been the case in the US.

[Glaurung]

As Khaleesi mentioned, an economic crisis occurs every several years, so it wouldn't be surprising if another one happened soon.

As for our national debt... While it is not good, it isn't at a stage where it is unmanageable. We need to take some serious steps though towards balancing our budget though. Problem is though nobody can agree on how to go about doing that. Heaven forbid we slash our military budget just a tiny bit and only spend more than the next 3 countries instead of 7. Heaven forbid we raise the top tier tax rates just a hair or cut a few of the tax loopholes some corporations are taking advantage of. Meanwhile our younger generation isn't spending any money because they're paying 20% of their income towards student debt, but we aren't taking any real steps to ease their burden. Meanwhile our students are performing poorly because we aren't funding our schools sufficiently. All in the name of saving a few dollars. Nvmd....I'd better stop this rant while I can.

[Commodore]

I'm all for it if it hastens the inevitable transition to bitcoin

:cool4:

[Ormond]

Thom Hartmann is a radio talk show host. Just because he is a "liberal progressive" talk show host (and that he is evidently more polite on his program than most of the right wing radio hosts are and so sounds more rational) does not give him any credentials in economics so that one should take his predictions for the future any more seriously than any other radio talk show host.

This man has no particular training in economics (he is a former psychotherapist, and some of his theories in that field about ADHD are considered overly simplistic and misleading by other experts in the field) and seems to believe some other things which look like a left wing version of a conspiracy theorist to me. If Wikipedia is correct, he thinks that the 2004 presidential election was "stolen" by the Republicans. Now given the closeness of the 2000 election, I wouldn't necessarily think that someone who says it was "stolen" was an irrational conspiracy theorist even if I think that term is too strong -- but anyone who thinks 2004 was also "stolen" is in my book an irrational conspiracy theorist. Plus he takes the extremely odd position for a left winger that "judicial review" of laws by the courts is unconstitutional, something I think (lawyers on the board correct me if I am wrong) almost all legal scholars would disagree with him on.

So no, I don't think you should take him seriously about specific predictions of when a stock market crash will happen. That there will be economic downturns in the future, some sharper than others, is inevitable given the way economics works. But in my experience people who put very specific dates on their future predictions about this sort of thing (as opposed to those just pointing out specific flaws in the system that might create problems in the near future) are usually pulling stuff out of thin air.

[Ormond]

Very sorry for the double post -- I didn't seem to get any indication it had gone through the first time.

[Fez]

There certainly could be a downturn later this year ('crash' seems rather unlikely, and melodramatic), as I recall the Q1 economic reports weren't particularly good, and it has been 8 years since the last one (just feels like less because the recovery took so long). On the other hand, I think some of the other recent economic data suggests that things are still plugging along much as they have the past 3 years.

Hopefully there's won't be a downturn until Q1 2017 at the earliest; I really don't want to see a Republican win the White House in 2016.

[sologdin]

i get a bit nervous when alleged 'progressives' start talking about how " once-great United States will soon disintegrate to reveal the rotting core where corporate and billionaire power and greed have replaced democratic infrastructure and governance." it's jingoist, alarmist, spenglerian, naïve, moralizing, all at the same time. the 'rotting core' metaphor is pure decadence/degeneration ideology, which has the most unsavory political associations possible. and it tends toward a critique of 'plutocracy,' which is more a rightwing topos than anything else--as though 'corporate' or 'billionaire' influence were the problem with capitalism. FFS. those are virtues of capitalism, and to oppose on that basis is to argue for a retreat to artisan production in the absence of collective investments. all we need to do is add in anti-banker rhetoric (either as a cipher for jews or not) and the journey to the dark side shall be complete.

[Paladin of Ice]

While I don't doubt that the market is setting itself up for a big comedown from all the record highs going on, I doubt it's going to be as bad as many of the doom and gloom types make out, and this one in particular seems like one of those hysterical, throw your hands up in the air and scream "oh noes!" with the slightest bit of evidence, (or even with no evidence, just cause) types.

[Horza]

Also, any blind squirrel can toss enough predictions and dates out there and eventually get one right. What matters far more is the analysis, the how, not the when.

[NestorMakhnosLovechild]

i get a bit nervous when alleged 'progressives' start talking about how " once-great United States will soon disintegrate to reveal the rotting core where corporate and billionaire power and greed have replaced democratic infrastructure and governance." it's jingoist, alarmist, spenglerian, naïve, moralizing, all at the same time. the 'rotting core' metaphor is pure decadence/degeneration ideology, which has the most unsavory political associations possible. and it tends toward a critique of 'plutocracy,' which is more a rightwing topos than anything else--as though 'corporate' or 'billionaire' influence were the problem with capitalism. FFS. those are virtues of capitalism, and to oppose on that basis is to argue for a retreat to artisan production in the absence of collective investments. all we need to do is add in anti-banker rhetoric (either as a cipher for jews or not) and the journey to the dark side shall be complete.

So, basically, it's typical, plumb line Wilsonian progressivism.

[Commodore]

easy Fed money causes the inevitable boom/bust cycle, inflate, crash, rinse, repeat

of course, like heroin, it takes more and more QE to keep the high going

they've already got zero interest rates, and they know the moment they raise them the whole thing will crash

[Maithanet]

Ordos - Anyone who claims to know the exact date of an economic crash is either lying or doesn't know that they are talking about. If anyone knew what the market would do tomorrow, let alone five months from now, they could make themselves a billionaire in short order.

The best that anyone can do is look at market forces and see if factors are generally ripe for a crash ie a bubble is forming, etc. But even if you know a bubble is forming, it might grow for another six months, or gradually deflate, or burst tomorrow. A lot of macroeconomics is virtually unknowable.

[aceluby]

easy Fed money causes the inevitable boom/bust cycle, inflate, crash, rinse, repeat

of course, like heroin, it takes more and more QE to keep the high going

they've already got zero interest rates, and they know the moment they raise them the whole thing will crash

Possibly, if nothing else was done. The problem is that QE is the only tool left in the macro-economics toolbox because the other economic recovery tools can't be used because Republicans refuse to do so. But hey, let's just pretend that the ONE thing being done is the thread that will unravel the entire economy and not all of the other PROVEN methods being denied by congress.