eyenon15 Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 Cheap stock shares for everyone in October! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThinkerX Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 Hmmm... Obama is supposedly pushing the Trans Pacific Pact so hard in order to counter China - a pact that folks at both ends of the political spectrum find very disturbing. Which implies that something is real seriously out of kilter in the US - China trade relationship for Obama to go to such measures. A crash of some sort stemming from this is possible, I suppose. But, despite all the yacking about the 'recovery,' fact remains: real income growth for most folks outside the 1% the past couple of decades has been flat, or even actively declining a notch or two in just the past few years. Most of the jobs being created are either part time or don't pay all that much. 'Next Step Up' jobs seem to be particularly scarce these days. Witness the growth of things like unpaid internships, people raising families on minimum wage or slightly better jobs. I see lots of articles about people moving into 'tiny houses' or mobile homes or just plain staying with the parents. For that matter, we have several regular posters here with apparently fairly decent jobs who consider it to be the norm to share a pad with a roommate or three. And given this, just what's keeping the stock market in the stratosphere? Run the graphs back far enough, and its clear the housing market never really recovered - and housing is a dang big chunk of the economy. The retail numbers the past few years have not been good - earlier today I was looking at an article indicating pretty steep declines in both rail and truck shipping. This shows up in my job as well; not that many packages passed through USPS, at least locally, the past couple holidaze seasons. I hear similar tales from FedEx and UPS. New vehicles? Something that for some inexplicable reason which keeps turning up on my Facebook is photo's of giant lots - often abandoned airport runways - packed completely full of unsold brand new vehicles that did not sell. (For some weird reason, these seem to be common in the UK, but they are scattered across the world). Banks keep posting record profits - but also keep laying off record numbers of people. So to me, something seems off kilter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ordos Posted May 15, 2015 Author Share Posted May 15, 2015 OK I learned quite a bit so I want to say thanks to all. I learned: Don't trust Thom Hartmann and I got a better understanding of what national debt is (thanks Fragile Bird). As for my father's prediction, a couple of people here mentioned an economic crisis is a normal thing and happens every 7 years or so. We will just have to wait and see if what happens in October is like 1929 (which was horrible) or a false alarm like Black Monday in 1987. Well good news! My father just e-mailed me and told me where he got it from. A Dutch economist named Herman Mulder. He's not on Wikipedia but my father says he mentioned this oncoming crisis in many of his speeches. Google the guy and you will find him. Oh wait! It's October 12th not the 17th. The doomsayer's name is: Herman Mulder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aceluby Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 Sorry but you are both going to have to dumb it down slightly for me to follow what you are saying. Might I suggest getting to the personal level. How is an upper middle class individual like myself in debt to the Chinese? You aren't. This is a common scare tactic of the right when they don't hold the presidency to prey on those who don't have a basic understanding of macro-economics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sologdin Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 beg the Communist party politburo for the cash?no. treasury securities can usually be purchased by whoever pays for them from whoever sells them. that means that citizens of any state, corporations based in any state, sovereign wealth funds of any state can buy and sell these things. whoever owns a US bearer bond, say, has a claim on payments from the united states. it is not a claim on any US citizen at all. it is a claim on the united states itself. people buy US treasury securities because they generally expect that the united states will not abscond or default. if in fact the united states absconds or defaults, it probably means that there's been a zombocalypse, which means that y'all got more urgent agenda items than the prospective value of 30-year savings bonds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hereward Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 :lol: Or Ted Cruz got elected president, though I suppose the "more urgent agenda items" issue would still then apply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 Japan is very, very deeply in debt and their economy has been stagnant, but the debt situation hasn't hurt them because it's internally held. Having half the US debt held by foreigners is not a good thing. I have good news for Ordos, according to the wikipedia link According to Paul Krugman, "It's true that foreigners now hold large claims on the United States, including a fair amount of government debt. But every dollar's worth of foreign claims on America is matched by 89 cents' worth of U.S. claims on foreigners. And because foreigners tend to put their U.S. investments into safe, low-yield assets, America actually earns more from its assets abroad than it pays to foreign investors. If your image is of a nation that's already deep in hock to the Chinese, you've been misinformed. Nor are we heading rapidly in that direction."[53] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 I have good news for Ordos, according to the wikipedia linkI read that as well. As I said, the Chinese share of US Treasuries is only 10% - if they owned 30 or 40%, you could start to worry. Far more important is the amount of US debt in total, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sologdin Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 something like 105% of GDP, no? <yawn>am surprised that rightwing proponents of market-based remedies to all social ailments do not endorse a treasury-security-only funding of gubmint. abolish taxation and let investors buy securities in order to fund the state. that should cure the objection that taxes are violence as the bond market, as a market, is of course completely 'voluntary' and free of force, violence, duress, coercion, and other thingies that never can exist in the private sphere but only and always arise out of evil altruist-collectivists in gubmint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Arryn Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 Don't stress it. Whenever I get some *free* time imma podcast my Bonfire of the Securities, global tabula rasa, everybody gonna get well. I anticipate a few bumps re: unmet public goods, but outside of that free sailing to Paradise, gratuities included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DireWolfSpirit Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 The only time I worry is after the capsize.http://www.hvs.com/staticcontent/images/031406.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord of the Vale Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 The us have A giant dept and the us could deafult on it eassily and if it did the folowing crash would make 2008 look like A good year for the economy. If the us deafults it would cause A ripell efect that would cause other cuntries to deafult and it would take years or more likely decades to recover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sologdin Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 cuntries to deafultgross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jarl the climber Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 OK I learned quite a bit so I want to say thanks to all. I learned: Don't trust Thom Hartmann and I got a better understanding of what national debt is (thanks Fragile Bird). As for my father's prediction, a couple of people here mentioned an economic crisis is a normal thing and happens every 7 years or so. We will just have to wait and see if what happens in October is like 1929 (which was horrible) or a false alarm like Black Monday in 1987. Well good news! My father just e-mailed me and told me where he got it from. A Dutch economist named Herman Mulder. He's not on Wikipedia but my father says he mentioned this oncoming crisis in many of his speeches. Google the guy and you will find him. Oh wait! It's October 12th not the 17th. The doomsayer's name is: Herman Mulder Another fellow you might want to take a look at is John Stansberry. He predicts an economic upheaval brought about by government debt and inflation caused by the government overprinting money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marquis de Leech Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Another fellow you might want to take a look at is John Stansberry. He predicts an economic upheaval brought about by government debt and inflation caused by the government overprinting money. Nutjobs have been predicting that for years, and have yet to provide a shred of evidence for it. Has the monetary base increased massively? Yes. Has at any point it fed through into prices? No. The western world remains stuck in deflation, brought on by weak aggregate demand and governments hell-bent on the evils of deficits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ants Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 The us have A giant dept and the us could deafult on it eassily and if it did the folowing crash would make 2008 look like A good year for the economy. If the us deafults it would cause A ripell efect that would cause other cuntries to deafult and it would take years or more likely decades to recoverus debt is in U.S. Dollars. They can't default - they can just print money. They are nowhere near that being necessary though except when the republicans get silly with the debt ceiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jarl the climber Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Nutjobs have been predicting that for years, and have yet to provide a shred of evidence for it. Has the monetary base increased massively? Yes. Has at any point it fed through into prices? No. The western world remains stuck in deflation, brought on by weak aggregate demand and governments hell-bent on the evils of deficits. Nutjobs have been predicting that for years, and have yet to provide a shred of evidence for it. Has the monetary base increased massively? Yes. Has at any point it fed through into prices? No. The western world remains stuck in deflation, brought on by weak aggregate demand and governments hell-bent on the evils of deficits. Yes, while I wouldn't really consider Stansberry to be a nutjob, his main arguement seems to be historical. Still your right in pointing out that the result of a collapse of the Western economies would destroy the value of most assets and that the purpose of US policy has been to preserve the value of assets, or to fight deflation as you put it, which is the opposite of inflation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iskaral Pust Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 I don't know whether I'm more upset that this thread is well into its third page or that financial and fiscal ignorance of this magnitude exists. Trolls, surely. There should be qualification exams for voting and thread starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commodore Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 we get it, anyone with a different opinion is a nut or a troll seems to be the general posture around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 17 October is a very specific prediction for when the next economic armageddon will happen. When people make a prediction with that degree of precision they are either divinely inspired or they are nutcases. I would think that because the world is still mostly trying to recover from 2008 we don't yet have a boom to go bust on. So I expect the next crash to possibly be a bit delayed compared to the normal cycle of things. Then again, if the fundamental shit that caused 2008 hasn't been sorted out, it could be that we're just sitting on a ledge halfway to the bottom thinking that we hit the bottom, but the ledge will collapse and then we really will find the bottom. But it's OK as long as Apple keep making massive profits right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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