R+L=J v.142

[Lord Varys]

The Twinslayer,

indeed, George has already hinted at that the knights may not have been all that happy with their mission to guard some tower. Especially Oswell and Arthur, who apparently were both close to Rhaegar, wouldn't have happily left his side. Not to mention that Arthur - being a Dornishman - may not have been all that happy with that stupid Lyanna affair. And if Gerold remained Aerys' man until the end he would also not have been happy with anything. Absolving the guilt they felt in blood may have been a powerful motivation.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

If from Jon Arryn calling his banners to the Sack of King's Landing is one year, and the Battle of Ashford to the end of the Siege of Storm's End is a year as well, then you're looking at at least 1-2 months between the Sack and the Siege. That's plenty of time for word to reach anybody at Storm's End

And no, we don't know that Ned went straight from King's Landing to Storm's End. Ned simply says that he marched south to go fight the last battles of the war. We know that he showed up at Storm's End before he showed up at the Tower of Joy, but we don't know that he didn't go anywhere in between King's Landing and Storm's End. The timeline certainly seems to indicate that he did go elsewhere, otherwise he could have gotten to Storm's End faster.

Where do you get 1-2 months between the Sack and Ned arriving at SE?

[J. Stargaryen]

JS,

I get what you are saying in regards to symbolism there. Any idea what it may mean symbolically that the Northmen killed all the Kingsguard at the tower? Does this mean the child will never be king? That Jon Snow's 'northern side' will prevail and he'll outright reject any notion of claiming the Iron Throne?

It could be, yeah. I think there is definitely potential for foreshadowing or symbolism in the outcome. Also consider the possibility or even likelihood that Ned fought with Ice, and Dayne had Dawn.

[Kingmonkey]

Wouldn't they?

The royalists were winning at the Trident and the tide turned when Corbray killed the wounded Martell. If Martel had Whent or Hightower at his side 2KG on each wing and 2 in the centre, could that have changed the battle? Could Arthur Dayne have fought and killed Robert during the battle?

I'd suggest that the Martells were not very enthusiastic about fighting the royalist side at the Trident. Martell had to be sent to take control of them, with the threat against Elia held over him for cooperation. It's rather unlikely the 3KG would have been sent to guard Martell, and it's likely that his death meant the reluctant Dornish weren't going to stay and listen to anyone else. However, the loss of leaders in general is not going to be a key point here, despite the "cut the head off" theory. On a battlefield, it's unlikely you actually know who's dead and who's alive unless they're quite close to you. You turn and run when the people fighting beside you turn and run, and the rout happens very quickly. Nor do most of the soldiers actually care much, because they're getting their orders from a host of petty lords who they actually serve.

I fought for Prince Rhaegar, though he never knew my name. I could not tell you why, save that the lord I served served a lord who served a lord who had decided to support the dragon rather than the stag. Had he decided elsewise, I might have been on the other side of the river. The battle was a bloody thing. The singers would have us believe it was all Rhaegar and Robert struggling in the stream for a woman both of them claimed to love, but I assure you, other men were fighting too, and I was one. I took an arrow through the thigh and another through the foot, and my horse was killed from under me, yet I fought on. I can still remember how desperate I was to find another horse, for I had no coin to buy one, and without a horse I would no longer be a knight. That was all that I was thinking of, if truth be told. I never saw the blow that felled me.

As for Dayne killing Robert, maybe. If they'd met. If Rhaegar didn't spur his horse ahead. If Robert hadn't killed him first, demoralising the Royalist forces further. If Dayne did win, would it change anything? Obviously Ned and Jon Arryn were the real battle commanders, Robert was the tank.

Would it change the battle? If each of the 3KG is worth a hundred men, they'd increase the strength of the royalist forces by 0.75%. Maybe it would change the course of the battle, but it's not likely. The 3KG speak of it as a certainty. That's a boast.

Would Tywin have betrayed Aerys if Jaime was just one amongst 4KG in the Red Keep?

Would the KG bent the knee easily at Storms End?

Easily, no. However Dayne isn't claiming they'd have done so reluctantly here. Would Tywin have betrayed Aerys? Yes, absolutely. Three more men amongst a few thousand, massively outnumbered. It wouldn't have given him a moment's pause. Don't forget "...or Aerys would yet sit the Iron Throne, and our false brother would burn in seven hells.". Gerold is essentially claiming that if they had been at KL they would have stopped Jaime from killing Aerys and then defeated Tywin's army AND the rebel army on its way. There's no way he really believes that.

I don't disagree about the intransigence and no common ground part. However, while the answers are boastful, I don't know that they are entirely ridiculous (as above).

I certainly wouldn't put them in the class of the "who could have slain all five of you with his left hand while he was taking a piss with the right" sort of over the top boast.

They weren't there and didn't save the day because they had other duties assigned to them at the time.

As to 'importance', that is hindsight at best. The Royalists didn't fight the Trident expecting to lose just because those three KG weren't there, nor did Aerys consider these guys' absence as a reason not to open the gates to Tywin's army.

I agree it's not a joke like the five with his left hand one, just indicative hyperbole. The five with his left thing is written in conventional, fairly naturalistic dialogue, and serves to give the reader a light moment while making Jaime's views on them clear. The ToJ scene is written in a ritualised, magnified, hyper-real manner -- as is the dialogue there. Neither are meant to be accurate strategic assessments, but they serve quite different narrative purposes.

Hindsight was available to 3KG. I'm not suggesting they expecting Rhaegar to lose at the Trident, merely that they were aware it was a significant possibility. Yet they stayed at the tower anyway -- and may have agreed that was the best thing for them to do.

[Voice]

Random catch:

Under the snow lay grey ash and cinders

From "The Prince of Winterfell" ADWD

[IceFire125]

Random catch:

Under the snow lay grey ash and cinders

From "The Prince of Winterfell" ADWD

She knows who he is. She sees things in her fires.”

Arya, he thought, hoping it was so. “Ashes and cinders.”

“Kings and dragons.”

Dragons again. For a moment Jon could almost see them too, coiling in the night, their dark wings outlined against a sea of flame.

[The Agency of Sansa Stark]

I believe this theory. It's well supported in the text and makes for good story telling

I also believe there is absolutely no reason why it needs 142 volumes or needs to be pinned to the main page.

[Voice]

I believe this theory. It's well supported in the text and makes for good story telling

I also believe there is absolutely no reason why it needs 142 volumes or needs to be pinned to the main page.

LOL

[TheSmallOther]

I believe this theory. It's well supported in the text and makes for good story telling

I also believe there is absolutely no reason why it needs 142 volumes or needs to be pinned to the main page.

Bingo :)

[The Agency of Sansa Stark]

Especially when you consider that my Jon Snow/Janos Slynt thread hasn't achived "Pinned" status.

[TheSmallOther]

As for Dayne killing Robert, maybe. If they'd met. If Rhaegar didn't spur his horse ahead. If Robert hadn't killed him first, demoralising the Royalist forces further. If Dayne did win, would it change anything? Obviously Ned and Jon Arryn were the real battle commanders, Robert was the tank.

Would it change the battle? If each of the 3KG is worth a hundred men, they'd increase the strength of the royalist forces by 0.75%. Maybe it would change the course of the battle, but it's not likely. The 3KG speak of it as a certainty. That's a boast.

Hindsight was available to 3KG. I'm not suggesting they expecting Rhaegar to lose at the Trident, merely that they were aware it was a significant possibility. Yet they stayed at the tower anyway -- and may have agreed that was the best thing for them to do.

I think Robert's death would change things a lot. Of course, perhaps not into exactly opposite outcome, but chances of it would be significantly higher.

Regarding KG staying at tower. That was very strange thing. Both if it was planned in advance, or if it was decided after news from KL. If Jon was inside and KG thought of him as a king, that was very very insecure way to guard him. And they failed their guard.

[corbon]

I'd suggest that the Martells were not very enthusiastic about fighting the royalist side at the Trident. Martell had to be sent to take control of them, with the threat against Elia held over him for cooperation. It's rather unlikely the 3KG would have been sent to guard Martell, and it's likely that his death meant the reluctant Dornish weren't going to stay and listen to anyone else. However, the loss of leaders in general is not going to be a key point here, despite the "cut the head off" theory. On a battlefield, it's unlikely you actually know who's dead and who's alive unless they're quite close to you. You turn and run when the people fighting beside you turn and run, and the rout happens very quickly. Nor do most of the soldiers actually care much, because they're getting their orders from a host of petty lords who they actually serve.

I'd suggest thats speculating on speculation.

The Dornish forces were not necessarily unenthusiastic at the Trident, in fact I'd go so far as to say thats irrational. If the rebels win the Dornish lose all ties to the throne. They may or may not be entirely happy with Rhaegar and/or Aerys but they still have ties there, strong ones.

Martell did not have to be sent to take command of them,and nor did any threat need to be made over Elia in order to make him/them cooperate. Those were merely the beliefs of a dangerously paranoid man.

If, for example, he 3 KG were at the Trident (making six), its entirely possible that two would be allocated to each wing and 2 to the centre. That could see, for example, Selmy or Hightower fighting with Martell and that could have made a huge difference. We don;t know. The point is that its not an unreasonable claim to make, that those three could have turned the battle.

In fact, the 'great man' theory was prominent in military (and other) thinking for centuries, and that thinking says that any one of these three could have made a critical difference.

Its certainly reasonable enough for them to believe so anyway.

I'm not much impressed by your claim that the loss of leaders is not relevant here either. For better or worse, thats exactly what we are told about his battle, and many others in history too. You fobbing it off as 'not how it worked' isn't good enough compared to the weight of data otherwise.

As for Dayne killing Robert, maybe. If they'd met. If Rhaegar didn't spur his horse ahead. If Robert hadn't killed him first, demoralising the Royalist forces further. If Dayne did win, would it change anything? Obviously Ned and Jon Arryn were the real battle commanders, Robert was the tank.

I don't know. I'd tend to say maybe 'not' either, despite the weight of evidence the other way (I'm not a 'great man' theory follower in general either, though I prefer to keep an open mind). However, all that is needed here is for these men to believe it.

Noting of course that thats exactly what did turn the battle in the information we have (reporting bias perhaps showing that great man theory was widely believed in character? Or actual truth?)

Would it change the battle? If each of the 3KG is worth a hundred men, they'd increase the strength of the royalist forces by 0.75%. Maybe it would change the course of the battle, but it's not likely. The 3KG speak of it as a certainty. That's a boast.

If they, and those around them, believe in great man theory in battle, then their worth in numbers is irrelevant. Evidence seems to show that thats what everyone believes. Which means they have a fair chance of being right.

Confidence projects as certainty and can sound boastful. That does not make it automatically misplaced.

Easily, no. However Dayne isn't claiming they'd have done so reluctantly here. Would Tywin have betrayed Aerys? Yes, absolutely. Three more men amongst a few thousand, massively outnumbered. It wouldn't have given him a moment's pause. Don't forget "...or Aerys would yet sit the Iron Throne, and our false brother would burn in seven hells.". Gerold is essentially claiming that if they had been at KL they would have stopped Jaime from killing Aerys and then defeated Tywin's army AND the rebel army on its way. There's no way he really believes that.

All Dayne said about Storm's End is that their knees do not bend easily. Thats it.

Woudl Tywin have betrayed Aerys? Possibly. We don't know for sure. Had he written off Jaime by then? I doubt it. If there are no other KG then Tywin might back Jaime's skills to survive the Sack. If Dayne, Hightower and Whent are there then Jaime makes an effective hostage against Tywin and Tywin can't back Jaime's skills to survive the same way. Maybe Tywin would have swung for the crown?

All that is necessary is for these three KG to believe its a possibility, remember.

I agree it's not a joke like the five with his left hand one, just indicative hyperbole. The five with his left thing is written in conventional, fairly naturalistic dialogue, and serves to give the reader a light moment while making Jaime's views on them clear. The ToJ scene is written in a ritualised, magnified, hyper-real manner -- as is the dialogue there. Neither are meant to be accurate strategic assessments, but they serve quite different narrative purposes.

Thats subjective.

Hindsight was available to 3KG. I'm not suggesting they expecting Rhaegar to lose at the Trident, merely that they were aware it was a significant possibility. Yet they stayed at the tower anyway -- and may have agreed that was the best thing for them to do.

Its always a significant possibility.

Yet Rhaegar thought he would win when he talked to Jaime as he left.

And significant possibility or not, if they have orders to do something else, and the KG tasks are fulfilled, they don't get to override their orders just because they are not sure of them. Nor could doing so last or work. No way they could actually be with the army or in the Red Keep if they'd been ordered to be elsewhere.

[Mithras]

I'd suggest thats speculating on speculation.

The Dornish forces were not necessarily unenthusiastic at the Trident, in fact I'd go so far as to say thats irrational. If the rebels win the Dornish lose all ties to the throne. They may or may not be entirely happy with Rhaegar and/or Aerys but they still have ties there, strong ones.

Martell did not have to be sent to take command of them,and nor did any threat need to be made over Elia in order to make him/them cooperate. Those were merely the beliefs of a dangerously paranoid man.

Rhaegar set aside his lawful wife who was not able to bear him children again. Martells had every reason to suspect that Rhaegar's children from Elia could be set aside just as easy.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Rhaegar set aside his lawful wife who was not able to bear him children again. Martells had every reason to suspect that Rhaegar's children from Elia could be set aside just as easy.

Did he, though? That would have caused a lot of trouble, had the war not intervened. And if Elia had been set aside, why did she remain at Dragonstone? Rhaegar himself did not have the power to set Elia aside.. doesn't only the High Septon have such power?

[Mithras]

Did he, though? That would have caused a lot of trouble, had the war not intervened. And if Elia had been set aside, why did she remain at Dragonstone? Rhaegar himself did not have the power to set Elia aside.. doesn't only the High Septon have such power?

I was talking figuratively. In practice, he abandoned her and ran off with another woman of equally high birth. And they all knew that Rhaegar wanted another kid, one Elia could no longer provide her. Even if the Rebellion was suppressed, this would create all sorts of problems. For example, if all the remaining parties opposed the polygamy, Rhaegar would have to choose. And according to the Martells, he would most probably prefer the new, young, healthy wife over the old and sickly one who could not bear child anymore.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I was talking figuratively. In practice, he abandoned her and ran off with another woman of equally high birth. And they all knew that Rhaegar wanted another kid, one Elia could no longer provide her. Even if the Rebellion was suppressed, this would create all sorts of problems. For example, if all the remaining parties opposed the polygamy, Rhaegar would have to choose. And according to the Martells, he would most probably prefer the new, young, healthy wife over the old and sickly one who could not bear child anymore.

I can't recall any Martell making any statement about that?

[Mithras]

I can't recall any Martell making any statement about that?

No Martell said anything about Lyanna or even Rhaegar IIRC. But that seems like a reasonable assumption.

[Riddick]

I believe this theory. It's well supported in the text and makes for good story telling

I also believe there is absolutely no reason why it needs 142 volumes or needs to be pinned to the main page.

I am curious what do these 142 volumes contain.

I have read most of this post and have reached the conclusion that somewhere on these forums is the accurate prediction about how things will be by end of book 7. All the theories and speculations combined, we might be able to guess whats going on GRRM's mind.

Or so I hope...

[Lord Varys]

I'd generally agree with Mithras on that one - that is surprising, I know.

We know Rhaegar wanted/believed he had to have more children. We don't not yet know if Rhaegar intended to abduct (and subsequently marry) Lyanna when he left Dragonstone - which means that he may not yet have decided to go for an annulment there (or set her aside - whatever the hell that would mean).

However, if Rhaegar had stuck to Lyanna and as his only wife and queen after the war had been won, and Rhaegar eventually ascended the Iron Throne the status of Elia's children would have inevitably be called into question even if Rhaegar had never disinherited them or proclaimed them bastards (which they most likely would have been if his marriage had been annulled, as that would mean he would have never been legally married to Elia) as their mother would never have been queen.

Even in a polygamy scenario - Elia would have been effectively destroyed as a wife as she could no longer bear children nor was her husband in love with her. She would have been Rhaegar's 'wife by courtesy'. Back during the days of Aegon I Visenya clearly was the less favoured sister-wife, but she was a dragonrider and warrior in her own right, co-ruled the Realm at the side of her siblings, and could strengthen her role as the only queen because she very much outlived her sister and rival Rhaenys. Elia would have been nothing but the discarded wife.

In light of Aerys treatment of Lewyn it may be quite likely that relations between Sunspear and KL were tense from the very moment Rhaegar took Lyanna, perhaps even since the coronation at Harrenhal. We don't know what Aerys' issues with Dorne are, but considering that he arranged Rhaegar's marriage my guess is that his distaste for Rhaenys may have more been his way to send a sign to Rhaegar than the expression of a specific hatred of Dorne or his Martell kin - if he had had such feelings for quite some time he wouldn't have married Rhaegar to Elia.

If Rhaegar's actions caused trouble between Doran and Aerys, then it would be also quite likely that Aerys had reason to believe that Lewyn was not particularly eager to fight with or under Rhaegar's command, and considering Doran's personality I'd consider it a given that he wasn't particularly eager to endanger Dornish lives to fight for a king whose son had publicly humiliated and effectively discarded Elia.

The interesting thing is also that Aerys believed that Lewyn and his men betrayed Rhaegar at the Trident - he does not believe Rhaegar and Lewyn were plotting against him (which he may have believed prior to Harrenhal when Lewyn and other Dornish courtiers were somewhat close to Elia's husband). This could also be a hint that he had reason to believe that the Dornishmen under Lewyn's command would either refuse to fight for Rhaegar or would stab him in the back.

It is also quite evident that only Elia's death - and the death of her children - brought the Martells back into the Targaryen camp. If this hadn't happened Doran would certainly not have plotted to marry his daughter to Viserys III or ally himself with the exiled Targaryens.

It is also a stretch to assume that Doran was all that interested tongain power and prestige at KL as brother of the (future) queen. He does not seem to be all that much about power and all but rather about protecting those he rules - including his family members. It is in that sense somewhat naive to assume that Doran and the Martells in general would continue to be loyal to the Targaryens simply because of the (uncertain) prospect that Aegon could one day become king.

[Lady Darry]

But Lyanna dies, so none of this could happen, her death would happen regardless of outcome of war. And we don’t know if there even was a marriage. No one knew what was going on in TOJ including Doran. They would just assume Rhaegar took Lyanna as his mistress and that he will in worst case scenario follow Aegon IV example. And even imagining Rhaegar would set aside his children with Elia the way Aegon IV did requires a lot of pessimism (and since Doran thought Quentyn will succeed he was clearly not a pessimist, quite the opposite :) ).

Martells would have to have quite an imagination to imagine a scenario in which Rhaegar would annul his and Elia marriage. Because this is literally the worst possible scenario (ok, he could also kill her), it would also be a first time in Westeros history someone would pull Henry VIII and even imagining a polygamy scenario is quite a stretch. In hindsight and with our knowledge this might seems like a viable option, but not to Doran.