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Why did Rhaegar give the garland to Lyanna? A Harrenhal discussion...


Rippounet

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Ok so I've been thinking about this for some time now and I've reached the point where I'd like to share at least one conclusion with everyone.

Before I start, I'd like to point out that this thread is not about R+L=J, but seeks to focuss on Harrenhal, the "garland incident" and its consequences. For the abduction itself, I have another -poorly titled- thread here: http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/128752-rl-j-an-alternative-explanation-for-roberts-rebellion/

So... The garland... We all know the commonly believed story. Rhaegar becomes infatuated with Lyanna at the Harrenhal tournament, so much so that after winning he gives her a garland of blue roses and crowns her the queen of love and beauty. Some months later (time unknown) he even abducts her, starting a chain of events leading to Robert's Rebellion.

Now, a lot of people say Rhaegar became convinced that he had to father a -third- child with a Stark (obviously, Lyanna), because Elia had become pretty much barren, to fulfill the prophesy of TPtwP, the prince being the product of an ice&fire mix. Hence, his interest for Lyanna at Harrenhal and the garland of blue roses.

The source for this perspective is mostly Barristan Selmy in his conversations with Daenerys (who says Rhaegar was only "fond" of Elia), combined with the vision Daenerys has of Rhaegar upon the birth of Aegon.

But when you delve into the details, you realize good ol' Barry knows nothing, and Dany's vision is completely misinterpreted.

The idea behind Lyanna getting the garland is that Rhaegar needs a second wife to get a third child, because Elia can't have it. After Aegon's birth, the maesters told Rhaegar that she would not survive a third child (JonCon chapter, ADwD). The World book confirms that Elia is "delicate."

The problem is, Aegon isn't born yet when the Harrenhal tournament takes place. So, if you believe JonCon (and I see no reason why one wouldn't) and Elia's fragility, the garland becomes a real question mark. Rhaegar doesn't know that Elia can't have a third child yet, and he will actually father Aegon soon after.

The evidence is pretty solid. Let's review it bit by bit:

- Elia's health was fragile. After Rhaeny's birth she was bedridden for half-a-year (JonCon chapter). Aegon's birth nearly killed her. Now bear in mind that JonCon's description of Elia's health and the maesters' "medical" opinion is the reason why people assume Rhaegar would have wanted a second wife.

- Elia and Rhaegar were married in 280 AC and Rhaeny was born that same year.

- Elia was at Harrenhal for the tournament, meaning at that time she was not bedridden, and was fit to travel (making a late pregnancy at that point highly unlikely).

- A year in Westeros is "twelve turns of a moon" and "the same as in our world." [this comes from a SSM] So a year in Westeros is twelve of our months long, or a bit shorter. (a "turn of a moon" is lightly less than a month).

So, if you believe JonCon's observations, the timeline is as follows:

- Rhaegar and Elia get married in 280 AC.

- Rhaegar and Elia take residence on Dragonstone some time in 280 AC, probably because of tensions with Aerys (World book).

- Elia gives birth to Rhaenys in 280 AC. Given a nine-month pregnancy, this puts Rhaeny's birth in September of 280 AC at best.

- Rhaegar presents Rhaenys to his parents. No mention is made of Elia at that time, which means she likely is still in Dragonstone.

- Elia is bedridden for roughly six months. This means she would be fit to travel only some time around March of 281 AC at best.

- Harrenhal tournament thus takes place around March of 281 AC at the earliest.

- Elia gives birth to Aegon. The exact date is unknown, but if Elia got better around March 281 AC (or even a bit before), Aegon would have to be born in late 281AC.

- Dany's vision of Rhaegar, Elia and Aegon should thus be taking place in late 281AC or very early 282 AC.

- During the winter which starts two months after the tournament and continues in early 282 AC, Elia and Aegon are indeed in Dragonstone, but not Rhaegar, who is already missing. Rhaegar is said to take the road "with the coming of the new year" of 282 AC (World Book).

Now, let's look at Dany's vision:

Viserys, was her first thought the next time she paused, but a second glance told her otherwise. The man had her brother’s hair, but he was taller, and his eyes were a dark indigo rather than lilac. “Aegon,” he said to a woman nursing a newborn babe in a great wooden bed. “What better name for a king?” “Will you make a song for him?” the woman asked.
“He has a song,” the man replied. “He is the prince that was promised, and his is the song of ice and fire.” He looked up when he said it and his eyes met Dany’s, and it seemed as if he saw her standing there beyond the door. “There must be one more,” he said, though whether he was speaking to her or the woman in the bed she could not say. “The dragon has three heads.” He went to the window seat, picked up a harp, and ran his fingers lightly over its silvery strings. Sweet sadness filled the room as man and wife and babe faded like the morning mist, only the music lingering behind to speed her on her way

So if you believe this vision is to be taken at face value, in late 281 AC or early 282 AC, Rhaegar has come to believe that his son Aegon is TPtwP (not himself). Maester Aemon confirms this point in another chapter (he was corresponding with Rhaegar via ravens).

Dany's vision also shows Rhaegar being quite close to Elia, lending credibility to JonCon's jealousy. (it's commonly believed JonCon was in love with Rhaegar). Dany's vision really doesn't imply that Rhaegar thinks of another woman yet, quite the opposite.

So, to conclude, we know that:

- In early 281 AC (or late 280AC), Rhaegar conceives Aegon with Elia -once she had at least recovered a little bit. (we'd need info on the "red comet" seen at that time to have the month)

- When Aegon is born, Rhaegar believes Aegon is TPtwP.

From this we can safely deduce that:

- Aegon can only be born in late 281 AC.

- Because Elia was fragile, it's unlikely she would manage to attend a tournament after Aegon's birth.

- When Aegon is born, Rhaegar is still close to Elia (he talks to her of the prophesy, so he trusts her that much) and has no reason to look at/for another woman.

- It's thus unlikely that Rhaegar would fall in love with Lyanna at Harrenhal.

I'll add that nowhere does it say that Rhaegar even speaks with Lyanna at Harrenhal. Lyanna cries because of his song, so maybe she likes him, but the reverse is not only speculative, it's actually unlikely.

So why does he give her the garland?

There are two possibilities:

1) Lyanna took the role of the Knight of the Laughing Tree to defend Howland Reed from the "three squires." Aerys, offended for some reason, orders Rhaegar to look for TKotLT, but Rhaegar only brings back his shield.

It's speculated that Rhaegar actually did find out that Lyanna was TKoLT but protected her from Aery's wrath.

Thus, maybe Rhaegar gave the garland to Lyanna to show his admiration for her valour and honour. There is no reason to think it was a romantic gesture.
[in fact, Loras gives a red rose to Sansa without any romantic implications in AGoT]

But at that point in time, Rhaegar knows very well just how dangerous Aerys is. We even have reason to believe he moved to Dragonstone to protect his family from him.

When Rhaegar gives the garland of blue roses to Lyanna, two very interesting things happen:

- Brandon Stark is infuriated and needs to be restrained. The Starks are not pleased, though Robert laughs (at least in public). The crowd's "smiles die" (according to Ned).

- Symond Staunton suggests to Aerys that Rhaegar is trying to win the allegiance of the Starks.

This brings me to:

2) Rhaegar gives the garland to Lyanna to deliberately draw Aery's attention to the Starks. The World book establishes just how much tension there is between Rhaegar and Aerys (as early as 277 AC). Unless Rhaegar is completely dumb, he has to know that giving the garland to Lyanna puts her in grave danger. This would explain Brandon's outrage: not only is this an insult to the Starks and Baratheons, it's also a political move to create a rift between the Starks and Aerys. Rhaegar seeks support to depose his father, and by giving the garland to Lyanna he consciously creates a potential for rebellion against his father. Of course, it also alienates Rhaegar from the Starks, but at this point he still is the best alternative to Aerys himself. He doesn't know that he will be accused of Lyanna's abduction later on, that Aerys will excute Brandon and Rickard, and that he will be killed by Robert at the Trident.

Now, I'll move on to more "crackpot" domain:

After Harrenhal, Rhaegar and Lyanna's wherebouts are unknown:

- Rhaegar is neither in KL nor in Dragonstone when Aerys has the pyromancers lit green fires in KL during the winter of 281-282AC. Elia and Aegon are in Dragonstone however (World Book).

- Lyanna's location is unknown, but it seems she doesn't return to Winterfell, because she is not in Rickard's party when he leaves for Brandon's wedding in Riverrun. Many believe she stayed in Harrenhal with Lady Whent. This is credible because Hoster Tully's wife is a Whent and Lyanna was meant to marry Robert, who was in the Vale at the time.

- Elia is in Dragonstone. It's clear her health is terrible after Aegon's birth, and given the aftermath of Rhaeny's birth it's very likely she is bedridden again.

After Lyanna's abduction:

- Rhaegar is still nowhere to be found. He doesn't partake in any battles before the Trident.

- At some point, Elia is moved back to KL. Likely Aerys was using her as hostage to ensure the Martell's (and possibly Rhaegar's) loyalty. The World Book confirms this is the reason why Aerys has her remain in KL after the Trident.

At the end of RR:

- Rhaegar comes back "from the South" to lead the Targaryen (and Martell) army to the Trident.

- Lyanna is eventually found at the Tower of Joy in the Red Mountains, not too far from Ashford and the Stormlands.

From this, I'll conclude that Rhaegar leaving Elia after Aegon's birth is surprising, and that it's unlikely he went straight to Lyanna. At that point in time, he should have still believed that Aegon was TPtwP and that he needed a third child (a daughter he'd name Visenya). His wife was sick in Dragonstone, but it's not obvious he would be quick to cast her aside without at least additional information.

So what did he do after Aegon's birth? What was his most likely course of action?

I'd say there are several interlinked possibilities:

- He was looking for a way to heal Elia, possibly using magic. (many believe Visenya used magic to father Maegor, so there is a historical precedent)

- He was looking for more information on the prophesy. Although the woods witch of Jenny of Oldstones, who actually gave the prophesy of TPtwP as coming from "Aerys and Rhaella's line" is believed dead at the time, her description fits the Ghost of High Heart that Arya meets in ASoS (because of Barristan's description). So maybe Rhaegar went looking for her.

Maybe Rhaegar did find the Ghost of High Heart (or another "magician") who told him to go for Lyanna Stark. Maybe he concluded on his own that abducting Lyanna and marrying her was the only way to fullfill the prophesy. Obviously, I personally doubt that. Why Lyanna specifically if he'd thought Aegon was TPtwP before? What Dany's vision tells us is that Rhaegar did not understand the prophesy as we do, and that he and Elia most likely wanted to have a third child together.

I think Lyanna's abduction is a problem of its own (see my other thread).

As to Rhaegar's wherebouts after Aegon's birth, I think he could have gone anywhere. That he came "from the South" does not mean he came from the Tower of Joy, or that he spent all these months there with Lyanna. In fact, I speculate he went on a journey to find a way to cure Elia, and that Robert's Rebellion prevented him from reaching his goal. It's also possible he still hoped to gather support against his father, but that RR and Aerys keeping his family in KL prevented him from openly moving against his father.

And Rhaegar would have had a lot of reasons to look for (and rescue) Lyanna if he wasn't the one who abducted her, of course...

To conclude, I'd like to go back to what Rhaegar told Jaime before the Trident:

When the battle's done I mean to call a council. Changes will be made. I meant to do it long ago, but ... well, it does no good to speak of roads not taken. We shall talk when I return.

Before dying, Rhaegar still wanted to depose his father. I doubt it could have been achieved without the help of Houses Stark, Tully, Baratheon and Arryn. In other words, I think Rhaegar was hoping to win, and that a victory would allow him to negotiate with the rebels, who could have helped depose his father.

Which in fact, had been his plan from the moment he gave Lyanna the garland... If he hadn't been blamed for Lyanna's abduction, it could have worked.

Thank you for reading. :)

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This is from the World Book:

“The False Spring of 281 AC lasted less than two turns. As the year drew to a close, winter returned to Westeros with a vengeance. On the last day of the year, snow began to fall upon King’s Landing, and a crust of ice formed atop the Blackwater Rush. The snowfall continued off and on for the best part of a fortnight, by which time the Blackwater was hard frozen, and icicles draped the roofs and gutters of every tower in the city.
As cold winds hammered the city, King Aerys II turned to his pyromancers, charging them to drive the winter off with their magics. Huge green fires burned along the walls of the Red Keep for a moon’s turn. Prince Rhaegar was not in the city to observe them, however. Nor could he be found in Dragonstone with Princess Elia and their young son, Aegon. With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands. Not ten leagues from Harrenhal, Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell, and carried her off, lighting a fire that would consume his house and kin and all those he loved—and half the realm besides.

I have to go back and read the whole post again, dates always do my head in a bit. But it seems to be accepted that Rhaegar met Lyanna near Harranhal, and not too long after the tourney ended...

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This is from the World Book:

I have to go back and read the whole post again, dates always do my head in a bit. But it seems to be accepted that Rhaegar met Lyanna near Harranhal, and not too long after the tourney ended...

Yes, I'm familiar with this. I've edited the OP to make it clearer.

Bear in mind the dates I've used are all optimistic.

For instance, I assumed Rhaegar and Elia got married in January 280AC, and that Rhaenys was thus born 9 months later, in September. But in fact, the wedding could have occurred later than January (let's say... March), and Rhaenys been born as late as December 280AC! In this case, it's totally impossible for Aegon to be born before September 281AC, and since Elia would have been bedridden again, she would have likely missed a tournament occurring even in late 281AC.

Even if one is optimistic, there's no way Aegon was born before Harrenhal because:

- It means Rhaegar married Elia very early in 280AC, in January. Unknown.

- It means Rhaegar and Elia conceived Aegon almost immediately after Rhaeny's birth. Unlikely if she was that sick.

- Even in this case, it means Elia would give birth to Aegon in the middle of 281AC (around June), and recover fast enough to attend a tournament between June and December 281AC. Wow!

To sum up, Elia could only give birth to Aegon before Harrenhal if she was actually quite healthy (not to mention having an intensive sex life!), which negates any reason for Rhaegar to look for another wife in the first place.

And if JonCon's thoughts about Elia's health are wrong... If she was not bedridden for six months after Rhaenys's birth, and Aegon's birth wasn't worse... Well then, why would we believe his saying that Elia couldn't have a third child?

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Elia might not have been barren or had any problems.

World book is written from a lannister point of view. And we all know Tywin wanted elia out of the picture, as he was prancing his daughter about.

So the fact the word delicate is constantly repeated might mean the opposite.

Maybe a lannister maester manipulated events to make it seem elia was incapable of having children. And although he wasn't at dragonstone (hasn't been confirmed though) we know a lannister maester who was working for Targs at that time, pycelle.

So her delicate nature might have been completely exaggerated and her births made difficult because Tywin wanted Cersei with Rhaegar.

And we do know he goes to some questionable lengths for his family and honour.

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Elia might not have been barren or had any problems.

World book is written from a lannister point of view. And we all know Tywin wanted elia out of the picture, as he was prancing his daughter about.

So the fact the word delicate is constantly repeated might mean the opposite.

Maybe a lannister maester manipulated events to make it seem elia was incapable of having children. And although he wasn't at dragonstone (hasn't been confirmed though) we know a lannister maester who was working for Targs at that time, pycelle.

So her delicate nature might have been completely exaggerated and her births made difficult because Tywin wanted Cersei with Rhaegar.

And we do know he goes to some questionable lengths for his family and honour.

There might be some slight Lannister bias but GRRM didn't just put his name in a book full of Lannister lies and drivel, what would be the point of the book then? The parts with bias are clear and something like Elia's health would not be one of those parts. And Pycelle wasn't his Maester. And Pycelle isn't a "Lannister maester" either. The picture we get of him in the World of Ice and Fire is of a man unhappy with Aerys' poor governance and a fan of Tywin's, who objectively was frigging great Hand.

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^ by lannister maester I meant a maester in service of house lannister. Which he was but not officially.

And the world book is more than aerys's section. It was aerys's bit that stank of lannister. It even accused Elia of killing her children and also (once again) accused Aerys of the targ kids murders.

And the only other times we've heard of Elia's health is from oberyn when he briefly mentioned her health restricted her from traveling and Jon who was jealous of her, and seems to unfairly judge her. So it's not too hard to believe her health might have been exaggerated in his mind to stroke his ego by eliminating Rhaegars sexual partners in his head and making him believe that he was only worth his love.

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Maybe a lannister maester manipulated events to make it seem elia was incapable of having children. And although he wasn't at dragonstone (hasn't been confirmed though) we know a lannister maester who was working for Targs at that time, pycelle.

So her delicate nature might have been completely exaggerated and her births made difficult because Tywin wanted Cersei with Rhaegar.

And we do know he goes to some questionable lengths for his family and honour.

Certainly. The problem is, JonCon is not a Lannister man. He's Rhaegar's to the core. He was Rhaegar's squire, followed him around as much as he could (including Harrenhal), and was in an excellent position to know about Elia's health personally.

So even assuming the maesters who told Rhaegar that Elia couldn't have a third child were lying... This doesn't solve the problem that Elia was bedridden for six months after giving birth to Rhaenys. In other words, there's no going around the fact that Elia could only attend the tournament of Harrenhal between her two pregnancies, and thus that Dany's vision takes place after the garland incident.

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^ the complications of her birth might have been done deliberately. Cause like I said it wouldn't be unlike tywin. Cause he's gone to much lower lengths to crown cersei, such as killing a 3 year of girl and a baby.

Edit- and (as I said in my above post) it's not impossible for jon to exaggerate her delicate health.

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...

While we are talking crackpot, this one is mine:

Varys, Symond Staunton, Aerys…were suspecting the tournament was Rhaegar's idea. And that he wanted to use it to get as many lords on his side as possible.

If they could prove Rhaegar was behind it, they would put Rhaegar, Whents, Dayne, JonCon… into some massive trouble. Aerys could then charge Lord Whent with high treason and Rhaegar as well. So Rhaegar and his gang had to do everything very carefully, with a lot of secrecy.

But then, Aerys decided he will go to H, and their whole plan was shattered. There would be a bunch of spies anyway, but with Aerys there it was even more risky. So they laid low (Richard L was drinking with Robert, Dayne entered the lists as everyone expected, Rhaegar was singing …), but it didn't help.

Aerys was still suspecting Rhaegar, Lord Whent was still nervous, maybe Varys found some new evidence( or maybe Rhaegar didn't give up on the whole plan and he was talking treason behind Aerys back and someone found out).

So what could he do? It was Lord Whent life at risk and his status as a crown prince. He had to do something that would prove he was not conspiring. So he decided to crown Lyanna. Because he knew this will make a lot of very important people very mad. He alienated Starks, Baratheons and Martells with one simple gesture. It was stupid, it was risky, it was a short term solution. But it worked. After all, he, his friends and his family were in grave danger. They were facing charges for high treason. Maybe he didn't plan it, maybe after he won and he saw all the people cheering he realised they will take his victory as evidence against him and his friends so he just impoverished (and he won just because he fought fairly, or winning was a way of sending a massage he was the rightful king, but he chickened out in the last moment).

Yes, Symond Staunton thought this proved Rhaegar was conspiring aginst his dad. But Symond Staunton would use every opportunity to speak against Rhaegar. The important thing was Rhaegar convinced everyone else (Varys, his father, Qarlton Chelsted, Yandel…) he was innocent. It worked. And Lyanna just thought he made her QoLaB because she was KotLT-and he was okay with this, because he did adimire her. But it was just a coincident.

And he didn't put Lyanna in danger, no one knew she was KotLT. She was a lady and a maiden, no one suspected her. Everyone just though Rhaegar was cheating on his wife.

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In other words, there's no going around the fact that Elia could only attend the tournament of Harrenhal between her two pregnancies, and thus that Dany's vision takes place after the garland incident.

Why is that a problem?

If there was a red comet over KL when Aegon was conceived it was when Elia and Rhaegar were in KL either on the way to or back from Harrenhall.

Since we do not know Rhaegar's true motivation for crowning Lyanna or 'kidnapping' her, what difference does the timing of the pregnancy/vision matter?

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Why is that a problem?

If there was a red comet over KL when Aegon was conceived it was when Elia and Rhaegar were in KL either on the way to or back from Harrenhall.

Since we do not know Rhaegar's true motivation for crowning Lyanna or 'kidnapping' her, what difference does the timing of the pregnancy/vision matter?

No offense, but have you read the OP?

Because this is the whole point of my thread: to provide evidence that, in fact, we know nothing of Rhaegar's motivation for giving the garland to Lyanna. This is even the thread's title. ;)

I'm not claiming this is groundbreaking, or that I'm offering a decent answer to the question myself.

I think the timing of the vision is very relevant though, because it means Rhaegar did not think the PtwP had to be the child of a Targaryen-Stark marriage when he met Lyanna.

Which in turn suggests that maybe he never came to think this, and that the abduction of Lyanna was neither about love nor prophesy.

Does this matter? Less than some awesome theories I've been reading about on this forum, that's for sure, but perhaps more than a few others.

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Ok, here's my crackpot theory : Aerys went to the Tourney because he suspected his own son to be "doing something strange"= perhaps trying to overthrow him. At the tourney, there's the KotLT that Aerys accuse of being the traitor. Raegar finds him, discovers it's Lyanna, they spend a while talking about politics, bethrothals and songs (Bael the Bard, the fact that she loves winter roses). Rhaegar brings back the KotLT's shield but not the guy, and Aerys can suspect Rhaegar to be an accomplice. Rhaegar, to the shock of everybody, brings a crown of blue winter roses to Lyanna=> Aerys is relieved that what his son was hidding was a mistress+with this blow to the popularity of the prince, he's not going to get destituted so soon.


Lyanna falls in love with Rhaegar, and decide to flee with him=> Rhaegar already did much to protect her, already invested too much, he decides to keep on helping her.


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The idea behind Lyanna getting the garland is that Rhaegar needs a second wife to get a third child, because Elia can't have it.

This had been a moot for point for years, since we've known that Aegon was not born before Harrenhal.

Also, why trust 100% what is going on in a magical vision used as bribe to try to kidnapped Dany?

(I did read it all.) I agree that the 'kidnapping' is not necessarily only motivated by love or prophecy. It seems like an easy 'false dichotomy' trap for readers.

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This had been a moot for point for years, since we've known that Aegon was not born before Harrenhal.

Really? I only realized this upon close reading of the World Book. Sorry if this is old news, I hadn't read it before.

Out of curiosity, what was there in the books to show that Aegon wasn't born before Harrenhal? I certainly missed that.

Also, why trust 100% what is going on in a magical vision used as bribe to try to kidnapped Dany?

Well, although the source of the vision is certainly dubious, its content seems accurate enough to warrant a bit of thought.

In itself, it wouldn't be much if Aemon hadn't confirmed at least part of it:

No one ever looked for a girl..It was a prince that was promised, not a princess. Rhaegar I thought … the smoke was from the fire that devoured Summerhall on the day of his birth, the salt from the tears shed for those who died. He shared my belief when he was young, but later he became persuaded that it was his own son who fulfilled the prophecy, for a comet had been seen above King’s Landing on the night Aegon was conceived, and Rhaegar Targaryen was certain the bleeding star had to be a comet.

Not to mention what Barristan "Whitebeard" Selmy tells Dany.

And of course, there's this "Song of Ice and Fire," which happens to be the title of the series. I know Martin likes to mess with readers, but surely that vision has to mean something, or nothing does.

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Really? I only realized this upon close reading of the World Book. Sorry if this is old news, I hadn't read it before.

Out of curiosity, what was there in the books to show that Aegon wasn't born before Harrenhal? I certainly missed that.

We can figure out rough relative dates by the aging or ages of several characters and various comments and SSMs.

Harrenhal was approximately 2 years before the Sack.

Aegon was about year old when he died, during the sack. Overall it takes too much leeway needed over several different things to place his birth before Harrenhal. His conception though, fits around that time (though it was in KL under the comet, so must have been just before or just after, but we ave no way of knowing).

There's probably other things too that I don't remember, sorry.

Well, although the source of the vision is certainly dubious, its content seems accurate enough to warrant a bit of thought.

In itself, it wouldn't be much if Aemon hadn't confirmed at least part of it:

Not to mention what Barristan "Whitebeard" Selmy tells Dany.

And of course, there's this "Song of Ice and Fire," which happens to be the title of the series. I know Martin likes to mess with readers, but surely that vision has to mean something, or nothing does.

I'm a believer in examining sources closely and skeptically, but I don't believe in throwing them out entirely for no good reason. And especially not when they have external confirmation in some or all parts. For good or ill, what we have is what GRRM has given us and I prefer to use that, with close examination, as a first recourse so long as there is nothing he has given us that stands in conflict. Basically, we can figure out a bunch of stuff from what he gives us. If we assess it correctly then we get what we are supposed to believe (and this is a deeper layer than the superficial of what he gives us) at this stage, even if are most accurate theory at this stage must later change when he gives new information. IMO of course.

Consequently I see no reason at all to dismiss any part of Dany's visions, for example. How they get interpreted though....

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While we are talking crackpot, this one is mine:

Varys, Symond Staunton, Aerys…were suspecting the tournament was Rhaegar's idea. And that he wanted to use it to get as many lords on his side as possible.

If they could prove Rhaegar was behind it, they would put Rhaegar, Whents, Dayne, JonCon… into some massive trouble. Aerys could then charge Lord Whent with high treason and Rhaegar as well. So Rhaegar and his gang had to do everything very carefully, with a lot of secrecy.

But then, Aerys decided he will go to H, and their whole plan was shattered. There would be a bunch of spies anyway, but with Aerys there it was even more risky. So they laid low (Richard L was drinking with Robert, Dayne entered the lists as everyone expected, Rhaegar was singing …), but it didn't help.

Aerys was still suspecting Rhaegar, Lord Whent was still nervous, maybe Varys found some new evidence( or maybe Rhaegar didn't give up on the whole plan and he was talking treason behind Aerys back and someone found out).

So what could he do? It was Lord Whent life at risk and his status as a crown prince. He had to do something that would prove he was not conspiring. So he decided to crown Lyanna. Because he knew this will make a lot of very important people very mad. He alienated Starks, Baratheons and Martells with one simple gesture. It was stupid, it was risky, it was a short term solution. But it worked. After all, he, his friends and his family were in grave danger. They were facing charges for high treason. Maybe he didn't plan it, maybe after he won and he saw all the people cheering he realised they will take his victory as evidence against him and his friends so he just impoverished (and he won just because he fought fairly, or winning was a way of sending a massage he was the rightful king, but he chickened out in the last moment).

Yes, Symond Staunton thought this proved Rhaegar was conspiring aginst his dad. But Symond Staunton would use every opportunity to speak against Rhaegar. The important thing was Rhaegar convinced everyone else (Varys, his father, Qarlton Chelsted, Yandel…) he was innocent. It worked. And Lyanna just thought he made her QoLaB because she was KotLT-and he was okay with this, because he did adimire her. But it was just a coincident.

And he didn't put Lyanna in danger, no one knew she was KotLT. She was a lady and a maiden, no one suspected her. Everyone just though Rhaegar was cheating on his wife.

Ok, here's my crackpot theory : Aerys went to the Tourney because he suspected his own son to be "doing something strange"= perhaps trying to overthrow him. At the tourney, there's the KotLT that Aerys accuse of being the traitor. Raegar finds him, discovers it's Lyanna, they spend a while talking about politics, bethrothals and songs (Bael the Bard, the fact that she loves winter roses). Rhaegar brings back the KotLT's shield but not the guy, and Aerys can suspect Rhaegar to be an accomplice. Rhaegar, to the shock of everybody, brings a crown of blue winter roses to Lyanna=> Aerys is relieved that what his son was hidding was a mistress+with this blow to the popularity of the prince, he's not going to get destituted so soon.

Well, why not. I can't say it's less crackpot than my own crackpot. ;)

Rhaegar only making people believe that Lyanna was his mistress... Hmmm, well that certainly backfired (blackfyred, ha ha).

But I don't think it's that simple.

Rhaegar was well informed, to give Lyanna her favorite flower. I wonder whether this was common knowledge. Also, were those roses even easy to find in the vicinity of Harrenhal? That's another oddity to add to the list.

Also, why prepare that very particular garland unless he thought he'd win? In the books, Barristan regrets "not being a better knight" and having crowned Ashara Dayne. So apparently Rhaegar prepared the garland beforehand, and then did his best to win against Barry to give it to Lyanna, although he barely knew the girl and was happily married.

This thread suggests Arthur Dayne helped Rhaegar win the joust by losing to him on purpose, and I think it makes sense, because Dayne and Rhaegar were both close friends and rivals in jousting (Dayne was extremely good): http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/128952-a-matter-of-trust-rheagar-dayne-and-selmy-at-harrenhal/

That whole garland incident is really weird. Nothing about it makes sense. And yet, giving that garland to Lyanna was obviously very important for Rhaegar. It's barely a stretch to say he could have entered the lists to do just that.

It also seems he only entered the tournament after the KotLT vanished. Did Lyanna posing as KotLT impress him enough to do all that? That could make sense, but that would mean Rhaegar blithely ignored all the political consequences that would ensue, at a time when politics would have been heavy on his mind.

It's almost as if someone else told Rhaegar to give that specific garland to Lyanna in advance. Or if the garland itself does not matter. It reminds me of Dontos giving that hairnet to Sansa. A bogus story/romance to explain a gift, a Stark damzel running away from her arranged wedding with a "Baratheon"... But much deeper implications.

I've wondered before whether there couldn't be a written message in the garland, but that seems a bit cheap.

Of course, the best way to hide something is sometimes to put it in plain sight. Rhaegar was closely watched at Harrenhal, Aery's supporters waiting for the merest sign of treason, so his options for communication would have been limited. Staunton's interpretation kind of makes sense, but was Rhaegar really trying to communicate with the Starks? With that surprising gesture he could have been sending a message to anyone, including people who weren't even at the tournament.

I suppose we'll just have to wait for an extra clue to develop better theories.

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This is from the World Book:

“The False Spring of 281 AC lasted less than two turns. As the year drew to a close, winter returned to Westeros with a vengeance. On the last day of the year, snow began to fall upon King’s Landing, and a crust of ice formed atop the Blackwater Rush. The snowfall continued off and on for the best part of a fortnight, by which time the Blackwater was hard frozen, and icicles draped the roofs and gutters of every tower in the city.

As cold winds hammered the city, King Aerys II turned to his pyromancers, charging them to drive the winter off with their magics. Huge green fires burned along the walls of the Red Keep for a moon’s turn. Prince Rhaegar was not in the city to observe them, however. Nor could he be found in Dragonstone with Princess Elia and their young son, Aegon. With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands. Not ten leagues from Harrenhal, Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell, and carried her off, lighting a fire that would consume his house and kin and all those he loved—and half the realm besides.

I have to go back and read the whole post again, dates always do my head in a bit. But it seems to be accepted that Rhaegar met Lyanna near Harranhal, and not too long after the tourney ended...

Given that I've yet to find any mention of the weather being changing at the Tourney I've kind of inferred that it must be say closer to the middle of the year. Just even in a "false spring" I would expect some transition (aka what we might consider a normal season) back into winter mode and nothing suggests so far that people at the Tourney had any indication then winter would not be years away.

Plus Rhaegar returning to King's Landing for a time and then riding out suggests an more substanial interval as well.

Which is interesting because it asks what Lyanna was doing anywhere near Harrenhal still and how evidently fairly quickly Rhaegar was able to find her.

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Well, I still think that the crown of blue winter roses was meant to Brandon Stark, as a reprimand to Ashara's dishonor and this fact is compatible to what happened thereafter. However, I will restrain myself to post any further about this subject until I finished my own post regarding Rhaegar's motivations. I hope to put an end on the idea that Rhaegar or Lyanna acted motivated by love or prophecies. And, if there was any violence when Lyanna "disappered", whatever third party that appeared in that moment, they were going after Rhaegar, not Lyanna.

Edit: And following my "tenth man" role in this discussion, I say we shouldn't dismiss so easily the possibility that Tywin Lannister was behind Harrenhal, not Rhaegar.

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I hope to put an end on the idea that Rhaegar or Lyanna acted motivated by love or prophecies.

Ha ha, I like that. It seems we have a similar agenda, hum, perspective on things.

While I don't dismiss the possibility of love eventually happening (the series is dark enough as it is), I think that neither the garland incident nor Lyanna's abduction had anything to do with love. This is the fool's tale that was told (in different fashions) by both rebels and loyalists, and it's almost logical that neither version is actually true.

As for prophecies, well, it seems well established that at least the garland had nothing to do with them, and I strongly believe the same holds for the abduction. This was a red herring all along.

And, if there was any violence when Lyanna "disappered", whatever third party that appeared in that moment, they were going after Rhaegar, not Lyanna.

I totally agree with this. As you know I think Aerys was the one to order the abduction of Lyanna to prevent Rhaegar's imaginary alliance with the Starks. If Targaryen men (soldiers or kingsguard) abducted Lyanna, everyone would have immediately thought of Rhaegar first, and hardly bothered to even check. Since Rhaegar was himself on the road at that point he would have had no way to prove his innocence without finding and rescuing Lyanna. And yet I think he did try. Possibly he succeeded if R+L=J is true, or he failed if it's actually A+L=J.

Edit: And following my "tenth man" role in this discussion, I say we shouldn't dismiss so easily the possibility that Tywin Lannister was behind Harrenhal, not Rhaegar.

That thought had also occurred to me. This is where Yandel's (or Pycelle's, or the Citadel's) bias for the Lannisters could prove important. Yandel writes at length about how Aerys slighted Tywin on numerous occasions, yet totally absolves him of any scheming or wrongdoing.

But the tournament of Harrenhal was made possible by... Gold. Lots of gold. Anyone should have at least mentioned Tywin as a possible suspect. He had the means and the motive, he was known to prefer Rhaegar over Aerys. Also, Tywin's absence at Harrenhal is somehow conspicuous for me.

The question here would be whether Tywin and Rhaegar acted together on this, but the involvement of a kingsguard (Oswell Whent) seems to suggest they did: Rhaegar gave the order to Whent, Tywin provided the gold.

I even considered the possibility that the garland-incident was a message for Tywin (I was thinking of him when writing about people "not even at the tournament"), but couldn't figure out what kind of message it sent exactly (Contact the Starks? Lyanna is key, protect her?).

Well, I still think that the crown of blue winter roses was meant to Brandon Stark, as a reprimand to Ashara's dishonor and this fact is compatible to what happened thereafter.

I saw your theory on the other thread and was tempted to mention it, but wanted to think it over, precisely because it struck me as brillant.

It certainly fits much of what we know:

- It would explain Brandon's outrage if he understood the message (even more so if the message had already been given to him in another form).

- It would explain Brandon's insane hatred of Rhaegar, and his obvious desire to kill him.

- It would explain how and why Arthur Dayne would have helped Rhaegar at Harrenhal (and Barristan's regrets).

- It would explain why Rhaegar would prepare that garland specifically for Lyanna, and why winning the tournament to deliver it was so important for him.

- Even if the tournament had originally been planned for political reasons, Aery's presence would have left Rhaegar free to follow his own code of honour in this matter.

It's completely in line with Rhaegar's character. Arthur Dayne was pretty much his best friend ; Ashara would have been like a sister to him. If Arthur went to Brandon first and was laughed at, Rhaegar would have had good reason to take matters in his own hands. But given the political situation and Brandon's status, such a "message" would have been the best choice.

It's perfectly possible to imagine Elia and the Martells were complicit... (or even Lyanna, though that's a bit of a stretch)

It might even be a plausible reason for Ashara's suicide, if she thought the garland incident to be to blame for the war. After learning of Ned killing Arthur, she would have felt responsible for their fight and her brother's death.

I look forward to reading your complete theory, and hope I haven't spoiled your fun. Kudos mate!

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This is from the World Book:

“The False Spring of 281 AC lasted less than two turns. As the year drew to a close, winter returned to Westeros with a vengeance. On the last day of the year, snow began to fall upon King’s Landing, and a crust of ice formed atop the Blackwater Rush. The snowfall continued off and on for the best part of a fortnight, by which time the Blackwater was hard frozen, and icicles draped the roofs and gutters of every tower in the city.

As cold winds hammered the city, King Aerys II turned to his pyromancers, charging them to drive the winter off with their magics. Huge green fires burned along the walls of the Red Keep for a moon’s turn. Prince Rhaegar was not in the city to observe them, however. Nor could he be found in Dragonstone with Princess Elia and their young son, Aegon. With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands. Not ten leagues from Harrenhal, Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell, and carried her off, lighting a fire that would consume his house and kin and all those he loved—and half the realm besides.

I have to go back and read the whole post again, dates always do my head in a bit. But it seems to be accepted that Rhaegar met Lyanna near Harranhal, and not too long after the tourney ended...

You have to keep in mind, not every line of the World book is canon. It's not written from the perspective of GRRM or a person outside of the story. It's written from the perspective of Maester Yandel as a gift for King Robert Joffrey Tommen. It's the history of Planetos as the people of Westeros know it, not necessarily what actually happened.

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