Does Elia have time for a third child?

[hallam]

The only evidence we have against a third R+E child is that 'the maesters' told Elia that she could not have another child. This is third hand knowledge at best and from an anonymous source.

What if this was disinformation spread by Rheagar to conceal the birth of a third child?

I think it works from a timing point of view and it allows all the clues about Jon's birth to be woven together into a single narrative.

It is interesting that this would put Arys and Rheagar both having a third child at more or less the same time. Danny would be conceived when Rheagar's was being born.

[EastTymor]

Lack of evidence against =/= evidence

[hallam]

Lack of evidence against =/= evidence

This isn't science it is exegesis.

Lack of evidence against is everything in a complex literary work like GoT. There are really good objections to R+L=J, the bastardy issue, Lyanna's character, the monument. If R+E have time for a third son the rest of the plot can be explained by Aerys and Rheagar both hearing a prophecy about a third son who will be the prince who was promised.

We know Rheagar was obsessed by prophecy and Aerys 'went mad' having previously been apparently sane but evil. If Aerys hears a prophecy (from Maggy?) telling him that the valonquar is going to strike the king down dead and sit on the throne and Jamie is in earshot at the time, the kingslayer business becomes fulfillment of prophecy.

[EastTymor]

This isn't science it is exegesis.

Lack of evidence against is everything in a complex literary work like GoT. There are really good objections to R+L=J, the bastardy issue, Lyanna's character, the monument. If R+E have time for a third son the rest of the plot can be explained by Aerys and Rheagar both hearing a prophecy about a third son who will be the prince who was promised.

We know Rheagar was obsessed by prophecy and Aerys 'went mad' having previously been apparently sane but evil. If Aerys hears a prophecy (from Maggy?) telling him that the valonquar is going to strike the king down dead and sit on the throne and Jamie is in earshot at the time, the kingslayer business becomes fulfillment of prophecy.

Meh.

[GtrGbln]

Lack of evidence against is everything in a complex literary work like GoT.

I disagree completely. Just about everything that has happened thus far has been telegraphed or at least foreshadowed in one way or another.

[Arrow of the Morning]

Elia had time, but she had no health.

She was not sterile, she could bear another child, but she could not survive and we have no evidence that the maester were lying. Rhaenis and Aegon were born in Dragonstone and, presumably, the maester of Dragonstone who help in the birth and stated the risks of a third pregnancy and we have no reason to doubt about his loyalty to Rhaegar.

[EternET]

It wasn't a question of time, since, After Aegon's birth (Dany's vision), it seems Rhaegar had plenty of time to conceive another( the dragon must have three head). It is "was Elia fit enough to", and every hints in the books lead to a "no" !

[Humble Maester]

Elia had time, but she had no health.

She was not sterile, she could bear another child, but she could not survive and we have no evidence that the maester were lying. Rhaenis and Aegon were born in Dragonstone and, presumably, the maester of Dragonstone who help in the birth and stated the risks of a third pregnancy and we have no reason to doubt about his loyalty to Rhaegar.

She most likely wasn't sterile. She was just so frail (as she had been since birth), that another child birth would most likely had proven lethal. At least that's the official story, and I don't see any reason not to believe it.

@OP Dany being Rhaegar's child is one of those very very bad crackpots though, so let's not even go there.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

This isn't science it is exegesis.

Lack of evidence against is everything in a complex literary work like ASOIAF. There are really good objections to R+L=J, the bastardy issue, Lyanna's character, the monument. If R+E have time for a third son the rest of the plot can be explained by Aerys and Rheagar both hearing a prophecy about a third son who will be the prince who was promised.

We know Rheagar was obsessed by prophecy and Aerys 'went mad' having previously been apparently sane but evil. If Aerys hears a prophecy (from Maggy?) telling him that the valonquar is going to strike the king down dead and sit on the throne and Jamie is in earshot at the time, the kingslayer business becomes fulfillment of prophecy.

i fixed that for you.

Ok firstly what are these good objections to R+L=J?

The Bastardy issue is negated by the fact GRRM included polygamy in the story, yes people like to argue against a polygamous marriage, but whilst it is debatable I believe the evidence weighs in favour of it, and frankly if he is still a bastard so what? that in no way negates the evidence which is very strong that he is Rhaegar's and Lyanna's son.

What about Lyanna's character?

The Monument? eh?

How can the rest of the plot be explained? please enlighten us?

Your last part is entirely fictitious and has absolutely no textual evidence. So no.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

dp

[Balerion the kitten]

Elia had time, but she had no health.

She was not sterile, she could bear another child, but she could not survive and we have no evidence that the maester were lying. Rhaenis and Aegon were born in Dragonstone and, presumably, the maester of Dragonstone who help in the birth and stated the risks of a third pregnancy and we have no reason to doubt about his loyalty to Rhaegar.

While i don't think a third child happened i disagree with everything here. Going to repeat something i said in anothef post.

This maester has barely been mentioned, was he loyal to Rhaegar or was he loyal to tywin.

Cause remember, Tywin wanted Elia gone so he could replace her with Cersei. So it's not too hard to believe he had her births made difficult so it looked like she couldn't give Rhaegar the children house Targaryen needed (after summerhal there wasn't much Targs left).

Yeah i know, no evidence. But Aerys bit in the world book was clearly written from a lannister supporter (if you forget it was GRRM). I mean they accused the Targ kids murders on Aerys and Elia, but not once Tywin or gregor even though that was the well known rumour. Anyway in the world book the word used to describe Elia was "delicate", so this might be their way of exaggerating Elia's health.

And actually the only time we've heard about Elia's health was from oberyn when he said (very briefly) it restricted her from traveling and from Jon Con. And he was totally jealous of her and unfairly judges her, so it's fairly likely he's exaggerating her flaws so he can eliminate Elia, in his mind, from people who deserve Rhaegars love. Because he wants to be the only one worthy of it.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

While i don't think a third child happened i disagree with everything here. Going to repeat something i said in anothef post.

This maester has barely been mentioned, was he loyal to Rhaegar or was he loyal to tywin.

Cause remember, Tywin wanted Elia gone so he could replace her with Cersei. So it's not too hard to believe he had her births made difficult so it looked like she couldn't give Rhaegar the children house Targaryen needed (after summerhal there wasn't much Targs left).

Yeah i know, no evidence. But Aerys bit in the world book was clearly written from a lannister supporter (if you forget it was GRRM). I mean they accused the Targ kids murders on Aerys and Elia, but not once Tywin or gregor even though that was the well known rumour. Anyway in the world book the word used to describe Elia was "delicate", so this might be their way of exaggerating Elia's health.

And actually the only time we've heard about Elia's health was from oberyn when he said (very briefly) it restricted her from traveling and from Jon Con. And he was totally jealous of her and unfairly judges her, so it's fairly likely he's exaggerating her flaws so he can eliminate Elia, in his mind, from people who deserve Rhaegars love. Because he wants to be the only one worthy of it.

Sorry I feel I just have to point out that pre modern day interventions you can not make a woman's birth difficult. Obviously in this day and age yes you absolutely can make a woman have an extremely difficult birth through the use of inductions, epidural, pethidine, making her lay on her back etc. But prior to the introduction of such things there was no way to influence a woman's birth other than manually breaking her waters which whilst it can in itself cause some problems it is in no way guaranteed to do so and can in many cases be helpful, and obviously can not be done prior to the cervix beginning to dilate at any rate. And so can't be used in order to bring on labour before the cervix is fully ripened. and so the mother is ready to give birth.

Other than some made up plant which has not been mentioned at all in the books I fail to see any method by which a Maester could control a woman's labour to the extent of making her births difficult other than the keep her on her back method. Which I grant you could be used and does cause labour to be much harder, but it is hardly a guarantee of causing an exceptionally hard time which would result in her not being able to deliver again.

[Balerion the kitten]

^ okay then my bad.

But i still think her health has been exaggerated.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

Cheers. :) Birth ignorance is plentiful in the world so I forgive you, But I do get a twitch when I see it and have to point out the flaws.

As to Ellia's frailty. No I think she was as frail as everyone says. But if you want to outline why you think not I'd be interested.

[hallam]

I disagree completely. Just about everything that has happened thus far has been telegraphed or at least foreshadowed in one way or another.

We have a lot of foreshadowing: "the Dragon has three heads". We are also told Rheagar is obsessed with prophecy.

We have not yet been told the prophecy Rheagar was obsessed with. We only have that bit. But it looks like we are going to get a reveal on that eventually.

Cheers. :) Birth ignorance is plentiful in the world so I forgive you, But I do get a twitch when I see it and have to point out the flaws.

As to Ellia's frailty. No I think she was as frail as everyone says. But if you want to outline why you think not I'd be interested.

"everyone", we only have one source and an anonymous one at that.

On R+L=J, the problems are just so numerous it is difficult to know where to start. It is a theory that has been aggressively pushed by a handful of folk who are very enthusiastic about it and have told themselves that the problems don't matter so many times that they believe it.

If Rheagar was going to do the polygamy thing he would have done it openly and in public. A secret bastard cannot inherit, the politics of the matter make that impossible.

Jon can only inherit if there is indisputable proof that he is Targarean. But more importantly he is only going to want to inherit if he is not a bastard. He has already turned down WinterFell and more than half the land area of Westeros.

GRRM has made it very clear that the most important reveal on Jon is that HE IS NOT A BASTARD. Whether he is Targarean or Stark makes no difference. A secret polygamous marriage that isn't recognized by any of the Westeros faiths does not count.

[Minuteman]

It doesn't much matter imho. If Rhaegar wanted to have more children all he had to do was pick up his harp, flash a smile, and mention that he is the crown prince and he could have fathered children from the Land of Always Winter to Sunspear. The real question is why he chose only Lyanna of all women. Which I like most believe he did.

[Balerion the kitten]

^ doubt he choose lyanna.

This is a very brief summary but there is quite a lot of evidence for this, but it seems likely aerys found out lyanna was the KOTLT and ordered her arrest/death. Rhaegar caught wind of this and took her away knowing if she died there would be horrible consquences. Because he was in a rush it looked like a kidnapping. He took her to dorne because most of his friends (court and companions) were dornish. But aerys took this as treason and took Elia and her children as hostages, and that's why he spent so much time in the tower of joy because he didn't know what to do.

But he took part because the war got out of hand and his wife and children were in the hands of his mad father.

That's why he said to jaime he would fix things as he was planning (and doing) but it was no good to talk of roads unturned or whatever.

Edit - also explains why Dorne doesn't seen to hate rhaegar

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

We have a lot of foreshadowing: "the Dragon has three heads". We are also told Rheagar is obsessed with prophecy.

We have not yet been told the prophecy Rheagar was obsessed with. We only have that bit. But it looks like we are going to get a reveal on that eventually.

"everyone", we only have one source and an anonymous one at that.

On R+L=J, the problems are just so numerous it is difficult to know where to start. It is a theory that has been aggressively pushed by a handful of folk who are very enthusiastic about it and have told themselves that the problems don't matter so many times that they believe it.

If Rheagar was going to do the polygamy thing he would have done it openly and in public. A secret bastard cannot inherit, the politics of the matter make that impossible.

Jon can only inherit if there is indisputable proof that he is Targarean. But more importantly he is only going to want to inherit if he is not a bastard. He has already turned down WinterFell and more than half the land area of Westeros.

GRRM has made it very clear that the most important reveal on Jon is that HE IS NOT A BASTARD. Whether he is Targarean or Stark makes no difference. A secret polygamous marriage that isn't recognized by any of the Westeros faiths does not count.

Ok first up. No various characters reflect upon how Elia was always sickly right from her birth.

A handfull of people? really that is a MIGHTY BIG handfull judging by how many I have come across alone.

So please list your perceived problems with the R+L=J theory.

OK in regards to the possibility of likely hood. Why would Rhaegar do it publicly? what are you using to base this opinion on? Are you basing this assumption upon hints in the text? upon things which are literary themes in general? upon real life history? upon real life folklore or traditions?

A secret Bastard cannot inherit? well. firstly how do you know Rhaegar intended to keep him a secret his whole life? secondly seeing as Rhaegar had a son already does it cross your mind that he never conceived Jon in order for him to inherit? How do the politics of the matter make it impossible?

How do you know there will not be indisputable proof he is a Targaryen? have you been secretly corresponding with GRRM? if so please tell us when TWOW will be complete ;)

As to if indisputable proof is really required, well I disagree, I would say that enough proof to satisfy those with the power to put him there is what matters when it comes to if he can ever sit the IT.

Yes he turned down a Castle and lands & titles he felt he was not entitled to as it belonged to Sansa to the best of his knowledge, and to accept it would mean turning his back upon his gods and desecrating his sacred godswood. Including the heart tree. the literal embodiment of his faith. Please tell me how this informs us of what he would chose faced with the option of ruling with legitimacy and not having to burn his gods and change faith. and no longer having to break his NW vow in order to do so.

I'm glad you agree Jon is NOT A BASTARD as you put it. -_- but please explain where you read in one of the official books of the series or in an SSM that the faiths of westeros do not recognise a polygamous marriage?

And I'll show you where they consistently do just that. Might not like it, but they sure as shit don't ever declare anyone not truly a spouse.

[Arrow of the Morning]

While i don't think a third child happened i disagree with everything here. Going to repeat something i said in anothef post.

This maester has barely been mentioned, was he loyal to Rhaegar or was he loyal to tywin.

Cause remember, Tywin wanted Elia gone so he could replace her with Cersei. So it's not too hard to believe he had her births made difficult so it looked like she couldn't give Rhaegar the children house Targaryen needed (after summerhal there wasn't much Targs left).

Yeah i know, no evidence. But Aerys bit in the world book was clearly written from a lannister supporter (if you forget it was GRRM). I mean they accused the Targ kids murders on Aerys and Elia, but not once Tywin or gregor even though that was the well known rumour. Anyway in the world book the word used to describe Elia was "delicate", so this might be their way of exaggerating Elia's health.

And actually the only time we've heard about Elia's health was from oberyn when he said (very briefly) it restricted her from traveling and from Jon Con. And he was totally jealous of her and unfairly judges her, so it's fairly likely he's exaggerating her flaws so he can eliminate Elia, in his mind, from people who deserve Rhaegars love. Because he wants to be the only one worthy of it.

Yes, we do not know who was the maester of Dragonstone and it is exactly why we can't assume that he was loyal to Tywin Lannister. Maester Pycelle was Tywin's man and betrayed Aerys because of it. Pycelle served in the Small Counsel along Tywin for years and created a relationship of admiration and loyalty with him. The only other maester that could be a Lannister man is Maester Theomore; he was a Lannister of Lannisport and Wyman Manderly feared that he could stay loyal to his old familiar allegation and warns the Iron Throne that he was making a alliance with Stannis, but we can't say if Theomore would do that or not.

So excluding familiar relationship or loyalty due acquaintanceship with Tywin we can't say that this maester was lying to Rhaegar. Of course, he could be corrupted with gold, gifts, women, but it is a accusation that we cannot prove.

Jon Connington doesn't like Elia, but probably he received this piece of information from Rhaegar or something close to him.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

^ doubt he choose lyanna.

This is a very brief summary but there is quite a lot of evidence for this, but it seems likely aerys found out lyanna was the KOTLT and ordered her arrest/death. Rhaegar caught wind of this and took her away knowing if she died there would be horrible consquences. Because he was in a rush it looked like a kidnapping. He took her to dorne because most of his friends (court and companions) were dornish. But aerys took this as treason and took Elia and her children as hostages, and that's why he spent so much time in the tower of joy because he didn't know what to do.

But he took part because the war got out of hand and his wife and children were in the hands of his mad father.

That's why he said to jaime he would fix things as he was planning (and doing) but it was no good to talk of roads unturned or whatever.

Edit - also explains why Dorne doesn't seen to hate rhaegar

I've never heard this theory before, would you mind awfully sighting the evidence?

I must have missed it