Mance Rayder = Ser Arthur Dayne

[Hos the Hostage]

I've been thinking a lot about Mance Rayder recently, and this is the second theory that came to mind. I know it has been discussed before, but met with lot of criticism. I see it looks unlikely, but hey, lets have some fun discussing more!

Dayne went North with Ned accompanying baby Jon, to make sure they reached Winterfell safe. Then went North of the Wall as punishment, or to get the wildlings south of the wall before the WW struck. The whole King-beyond-the-Wall is a huge sham.

His story about the with from Asshai is metaphorical not literal. He left the Wall for a black cloak with red silk from Asshai sewn on it. Red silk from Asshai=Red Dragon. Targaryen cloak. He did what he did for the sake of (house/a) Targaryen. Only Jon hears this story. And like his birth, there are different stories about his desertion from the watch. Mormont did not know what he was doing, but Qhorin did, and so he delivered Jon to Mance before there was a war between NW and the Wildlings where Mance may have been forced to kill NW men including Jon.

Here are some arguments, both for and against, that I could think of.
For:
1. Excellent swordsman, skilled in using greatswords
2. Brown hair (Ashara had dark hair)
3. Good singer (Probably picked up some tunes from Rhaegar)
4. Keeps singing about tasting the Dornishman's wife. (Dayne being a Dornishman has a higher chance of having tasted a Dornishman's wife. Mellario of Norvos, probably? We only have Doran's word for why the marriage fell apart.
5. Contradictory tales about his background. Maybe because they are fabricated by Qorgyle and Qhorin and some other top NW men in collusion with Ned Stark (and Benjen Stark)?
6. BFF with Rhaegar, meant he knew about whatever prophecy Rhaegar acted upon. May be important in his role in ware against WW and cooperation with Melisandre
7. Likes the tales of Bael the Bard. Dayne was involved in the kidnap of Lyanna in a very similar story.


Arguments Against:
1. Ser Alliser Thorne and Jaremy Rykker were both Targ loyalists who were sent to the Wall following RR. They would have known if Arthur Dayne posed as Mance Rayder. Alliser Thorne was at the Wall when Mance was taken prisoner.
-No answer. Maybe they did not know Arthur Dayne well?
2. Robert and Jaime knew Arthur Dayne well. They would have recognized him at Winterfell
-But not if he kept his head low. Remember the Hound and the pitchfork knight? Knights never pay attention to smallfolks. Robert was inebriated and Jaime was too 'busy' to notice singers.
3. Why send Dawn back?
- To ensure that everyone believes him dead
4. How will living North of the Wall help protect Jon or assist Rhaegar's plans?
-If Jon is the prince that was promised, getting 100,000 wildlings south of the wall instead of part of WW army is gonna be a great help. Or he lied to Ned, and was biding his time. Fancy 100,000 wildlings trying to take IT in Jon's name?
5. Ned says to Cat 'he may have to call his banners and deal with King beyond the Wall once and for all'. How does it fit with things if Ned knew Mance was Arthur Dayne?

-No idea.
6. Ned's fever dreams and memories say Arthur Dayne is dead
-Ned's thoughts also imply Jon is his bastard. Some people have one or two great lies that they keep telling to themselves so they'll believe them to be true.
7. Mance is too well acquainted with the ways of the North. His demeanour suggests a true Northman.
- If he is Arthur Dayne, he is the man who won over the villagers to make them give up on the Kingswood brotherhood. Dayne had a knack for gaining popularity of the masses, according to Jaime.

8. How does this fit with the pink letter storyline?

-No idea yet.

Thoughts?

PS: I know about Mance=Rhaegar theory, and I just remember that I did not support it. Can't remember why. Please treat this one as a separate possibility

[Jon's Queen Consort]

It is known that Mance was a wildling child who was raised in the KW, he didn't went there out of the blue.

Arthur Dayne the Hooded man.

How Robert knew Arthur well?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

No.

One additional argument against it: Mance was a "young ranger" about six or seven years after Robert's Rebellion, visiting Winterfell and being remembered by Jon. He's got to be at least ten years younger than Arthur.

[Hos the Hostage]

It is known that Mance was a wildling child who was raised in the KW, he didn't went there out of the blue.

Arthur Dayne the Hooded man.

How Robert knew Arthur well?

I suggest that the origin of Mance's bringing up as a false tale propagated by senior nights watch men.

Robert was at Harrenhal, And Dayne was there too. Robert is a good fighter, he must easily recognize Arthur Dayne by sight (the way every little boy in the South knows the Kingslayer by sight). I did not mean they knew each other personally.

@Bright Blue eyes: Yeah, that is a good argument and I forgot about it. Arthur Dayne was around the same age or even older than Rhaegar. So he will be at least around Ned's age, and Jon is unlikely to remember him as 'a young ranger' if Mance was his father's age.

[Jon's Queen Consort]

I suggest that the origin of Mance's bringing up as a false tale propagated by senior nights watch men.

Robert was at Harrenhal, And Dayne was there too. Robert is a good fighter, he must easily recognize Arthur Dayne by sight (the way every little boy in the South knows the Kingslayer by sight). I did not mean they knew each other personally.

So nothing we know is true because?

Robert was at Harrenhall along with how many 3000 people? He knows all of them? Also Robert was interested in melee which is the only interesting part and not at dull jousting. Everyone knew about Arthur, that means that he wouldn't be able just to walk around. Also how about Arthur's kneeling?

[Lord Ser Septon Maester]

I suggest that the origin of Mance's bringing up as a false tale propagated by senior nights watch men.

Robert was at Harrenhal, And Dayne was there too. Robert is a good fighter, he must easily recognize Arthur Dayne by sight (the way every little boy in the South knows the Kingslayer by sight). I did not mean they knew each other personally.

@Bright Blue eyes: Yeah, that is a good argument and I forgot about it. Arthur Dayne was around the same age or even older than Rhaegar. So he will be at least around Ned's age, and Jon is unlikely to remember him as 'a young ranger' if Mance was his father's age.

The leadership of the NW has neither the motivation to do that nor the competence to pull that off.

[three-eyed monkey]

I'm not really feelin' the Mance thing. IF Arthur Dayne did survive the ToJ, and not many readers believe he did, then I think Qhorin Halfhand makes for a stronger case. There was a thread or two on the topic a few years ago. I argued in favour of the theory at the time, but there was little support. There's obviously a lot of overlap in the theories as both involve the most famous knight in the realm surviving the encounter where most people believe he died and then taking a new identity on the Wall.

[JonisHenryTudor]

I'm not really feelin' the Mance thing. IF Arthur Dayne did survive the ToJ, and not many readers believe he did, then I think Qhorin Halfhand makes for a stronger case. There was a thread or two on the topic a few years ago. I argued in favour of the theory at the time, but there was little support. There's obviously a lot of overlap in the theories as both involve the most famous knight in the realm surviving the encounter where most people believe he died and then taking a new identity on the Wall.

Wouldn't new comers, especially from KL, recognize him?

How many people after RR were sent to the Wall?

[Blazfemur]

While Im all for the exposing of the corruption of the Watch, and their lies, I undoubtedly and profusely reject any ideas that Arthur is even alive, much less disguised as any other character, ESPECIALLY Mance Rayder.

[the conquering bastard 25]

I'm not really feelin' the Mance thing. IF Arthur Dayne did survive the ToJ, and not many readers believe he did, then I think Qhorin Halfhand makes for a stronger case. There was a thread or two on the topic a few years ago. I argued in favour of the theory at the time, but there was little support. There's obviously a lot of overlap in the theories as both involve the most famous knight in the realm surviving the encounter where most people believe he died and then taking a new identity on the Wall.

Actually the half hand as High tower makes more sense as its because of an arrow wound taken during the tracking of the Kingswood brotherhood that he lost half his sword hand and Wayne had to take up the command.

Yet some of Mances own back story doesn't make sense.

1)how did he know before even visiting WF that Robert liked drinking songs? Or Brawdy songs? He was raised and born on the wall. I doubt his taste of music reached all the way up north to the Wall.

2) Has anyone really paid attention to the way mances speaks? Like Roose told Theon his tongue betrayed his birth with every word out of his mouth, even as reek he still spoke like a highborn lord he was. Mance speaks like a courtier, as Dayne having grown up in the Red Keep and being Rhaegars eyes and ears at court would definetly have picked up that skill.

While I don't subscribe to mance being Dayne , I do believe he's still alive.

The one time we the reader get a chance for a character to give us some idea of whether he dead or not is when Arya asks Ned Dayne about Starfell and his house and he deftly stated his father was Wayne's older brother.Now as Ned is lord is makes sense that he would speak of his father in the past tense but the way the sentence is worded there could be multiple meanings.

[Nolan Clegane]

OMG when will this stop. I think we are ready for WoW!

[Lord Lannister]

I guess no one in these books is who they say they are.

[three-eyed monkey]

Regarding Ser Arthur surviving the ToJ.

The details of Dayne's death are never revealed. We know Ned thinks Dayne would have killed him if it were not for Howland Reed, but that does not mean Reed killed Dayne. Ned never mentions or thinks of Dayne as dead. There are rumours in Winterfell and Kings Landing that suggest Ned killed Dayne, but they are just rumours.

Ned built 8 cairns, 5 for his Northmen and 3 for the KG, but what's to say each cairn had a corpse? In fact it is quite odd that Ned did not have the bones of his friends returned, even at a later date, as well as those of his honourable foes. Perhaps this makes more sense if Ned only had 7 bodies instead of 8?

Ned remembers that 7 Northmen faced 3 KG and only 2 survived. This language is actually quite ambiguous. Does it mean 2 of the 10 combatants survived or 2 of the Northmen? For example, if we say 300 Spartans faced 100,000 Persians and only 1 survived, it does not mean 100,299 men died. It means only 1 Spartan survived.

Ned returned Dawn to Starfall. Some people think Ser Arthur would never have given up the sword. But he's not giving it up, he's having it returned to it's home. Perhaps Arthur felt, considering the events, that he had failed Rhaegar and was no longer worthy. Besides, if he is going to take up a new identity, then he has to lose the big-ass pale as milkglass sword. Bit of a giveaway.

Some people think that Dayne was too well known to go unrecognised. While his name was well known throughout the kingdom, most people would never have seen Arthur up close. Jamie was also quite famous but he still managed to get from Riverrun to Kings Landing largely unrecognised. Even the Lannister guards were slow to realise who he was as he entered the city.

And while there were many Targ loyalists sent to the Wall after Robert's Rebellion, some of whom might have been able to recognise Arthur, would they out a fellow Targ loyalist, especially one so well respected? Benjen might recognise Arthur from Harrenhal, but Ned might have brought his brother into the loop. Alternatively, the NW vows might have played a part as a man of the Watch leaves his past and his politics behind and becomes a brother to his fellow watchmen.

It makes sense that if Ser Arthur did survive he'd go to the Wall, because if he bought into Rhaegar's prophecy/TPwwP ideas, then he knew where the real enemy was.

I'm not saying I'm convinced. I think it is possible, albeit a slim chance. But if Arthur did live on at the Wall then I really think that Qhorin is a better fit than Mance. The shadow tower, where the Halfhand was based is more isolated than Castle Black or Eastwatch. He tells Jon he knew Ned and Lord Rickard, but as the Starks were friends to the watch then that may be no surprise. He seems interested in Jon immediately and requests him for the ranging into the mountains. He's committed to the defence of the realm. He sacrifices his life to save Jon in a real Kingsguard move. He teaches himself to fight left-handed, which parallels the boy who wanted to be Arthur Dayne but turned into the Smiling Knight. So maybe Jaime is more like his hero than he knows?

[the conquering bastard 25]

Your again forgetting Mances tells Jon Snow that by the time Benjen came to the wall he was at Shadow Tower and he's never seen him. They had never met. That's why he claims he wasn't worried about Benjen being at the welcoming feast.

Then the LC of the Wall has words for Ned Stark but doesn't bring Benjen? Given Jon and Robb's age either Bran or Ayra would have been born and Benjen didn't come down to meet his new niece or nephew and he would have been on the wall for a while, so Mormonts reasoning about forgetting home doesn't cut it.

Then look at Jons physical description and Mances. They are mirror images but ad Dayne is Jon's cousin on his father side...

[Clegane'sPup]

Your again forgetting Mnaces tells Jin Snow that by the time Benjen came to the wall he was at Shadow Tower and he's never seen him. They had never met. That's why he claims he wasn't worried about Benjen being at the welcoming feast.

Then the LC of the Wall has words for Ned Stark but doesn't bring Benjen? Given Jin and Robb's age either Bran or Ayra would have been born and Benjen didn't come down to meet his new niece of nephew and he would have been on the wall for a while, so Mornings reasoning about forgetting home doesn't cut it.

Then look at Jons physical description and Mances. They mirror images but ad Dayne is Jon's cousin on his father side...

Is it me or you that's :drunk: because either you ain't typin' rite or I ain't readin' rite. :devil:

[the conquering bastard 25]

Auto correct and typing really fast on my tablet, which is not my normal format. Man was not meant to type with his thumbs.

[EastTymor]

New theory: M=M

Mance is exactly who he says he is. Crackpot, I know.

[The Santa of House Claus]

No, just no

[SolomonBlack]

Arthur Dayne was old enough to enter and win the tourney in Lannisport in 276 AC near as I can tell without digging out the books he was already Kingsguard, certainly no Barristan the Bold going on since he beat Rhaegar to win so that would be noted. He also has to have been older then Jaime upon joining so being some 24 years forward to the present events of 300 AC then I dare say he would have to be in his 40s if not his 50s. Ciarán Hinds is an older man but nothing notes Mance Rayder as being one.

On top of course Mance being well known on the Wall

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Mance's connection to the Targaryens is through Bloodraven. Their cloaks are both described as "smoke and scarlet" or "scarlet and smoke." Mance's helm has raven's wings on it. Both are fighters, leaders, and intelligent men. Both deserted the Night's Watch (admittedly, Brynden is rather stuck where he is, but he didn't start out that way, as LC he should have gone back). Targaryens can be wonderful but they are not necessarily great Night's Watch material. They gravitate toward leadership and world-changing.

Bloodraven could easily have sired a daughter on a Wildling woman, with that daughter going on to have a son.

Arthur could be the greatest swordsman who ever lived (when he has his magic sword) but no one has ever mentioned him being particularly intelligent or having leadership qualities. Great guy, no doubt, but not necessarily on the level of Mance or Brynden.

Also I have this idea that Arthur was the bleeding red (Targ) star (Dayne) at the ToJ when Jon was born. However, bleeding doesn't have to mean dead.