Littlefinger was lying about the Purple Wedding

[John Suburbs]

Also, Joffrey's chalice contained way more wine, the poison was thus more diluted.

Covered the dilution aspect earlier. Dilution would diminish the severity of the symptoms, not delay the onset.

Strangler is a fantasy poison. We don't know if it's topical or not. Cyanide, which is not topical, acts almost immediately after ingestion, but a full stomach can slow it down. The differences between Cressen's ingestion, and Joffrey's are plenty: Cressen drinks the poison on a relatively empty stomach, while Joffrey takes it (if he takes it) after eating something like 55 courses. IF the strangler is not a topical poison, that is enough to account for the difference in timing. If it's topical, not so much, but, in that case, age could be a factor, along with other individual differences. There's not so much of a difference between what happens to Cressen and what happens to Joffrey in terms of timing. In Joffrey's case, it takes seconds longer; we're not talking about a half hour delay.

So we have a poison that attacks the muscles of the throat by first passing over the muscles of the throat with no affect, then becoming absorbed through the stomach, circulating throughout the body and then attacking the muscles of the throat? Sorry, this is a reach. And cyanide does not work that fast unless you inhale it.

And you're saying the inner throat and palate of 13yo Joffrey is more resistant to a virulent poison than that of a 65yo man? Again, you're reaching.

Tyrion vs Joffrey: I agree that the Tyrells have no reason to get rid of Joff immediately, unless they're genuinely concerned for Margaery and Loras, which is possible. Margaery might marry Tommen, but that marriage will have to wait to be consummated--ie., it can be annulled. Joffrey is a surer path to the throne. otoh, Tywin is still Hand, and the Lannisters still need the Tyrells. Neither Tywin nor Kevan shows the kind of anti-Tyrell paranoia that Cersei does. Tyrells could kill Joff, marry their daughter to the sane kid, and wait a few years, safe in the knowledge that the marriage will be consummated eventually, and safe knowing that they won't need to kill an established king in the future. Eventually, of course, is not as good as immediately.

Several years is an eternity in a feudal society, especially when there is still a war on. The only way the Tyrells benefit from all this is through a blood heir to the IT, so anything that delays this eventuality weakens their position and undermines their primary reason for entering the alliance.

The only way Lady O would take such a drastic step as killing the king at a big public event like his own wedding would be that she is terrified that Maergy will not survive the night with Joffrey. This is completely unsupported by the text, as neither she nor Lady O express any fear of Joffrey, and Joffrey himself shows no sign of malice toward Mergaery. In fact, it's the exact opposite: he pleased as punch at marrying her rather than Sansa.

Tyrells do have reason to get rid of Tyrion as it gets rid of Lannister claims to the North.

I would argue further that for a player like Lady O, this is her paramount concern because it is a direct threat to the hegemony that House Tyrell has had in the region for more than 1000 years. Much more serious than if Margy takes a few knocks from Joffrey someday.

LF is trickier: He is the one who got Joffrey to hire the dwarf performers--ie., he wanted public conflict between Joffrey and Tyrion. This makes no sense if he had planned on killing Tyrion all along, as it puts Tyrion in the spotlight, and even LF wouldn't expect anyone to accuse Joffrey of Tyrion's murder. If he had planned on killing Joffrey, and getting Tyrion accused, though, it falls into place.

There is nothing tricky about LF at all. In fact, his is the more direct motive: exposure of all his financial dealings with the crown's gold. The dwarf joust was just a last dig at someone he's been trying to get rid of for years. Remember the dagger?

And there is absolutely no way that Littlefinger could have possibly known that any sparring between J and T over the joust would involve the chalice or that it would wind up right in front of Garlen at the crucial moment of the pie cutting for him or Leonette to drop in the poison (you at least concede Lady O could not have done it herself, right?).

Also, it is beyond absurd to think that Lady O would condone a plan that would put poisoned wine so close to Margaery's lips. Remember, this is the formal pie-cutting, a time when toasts to the bride and groom are common, as indeed there was one. And this being a chivalrous society, it would be 'ladies first' and Margy would either drink or, if she is in on the plot, feign some excuse only to have the entire room see the king drop dead the next moment.

Tywin, I think, can be involved here as well. Tywin is a sociopath, hyper-conscious of his family's reputation. He's figured out that Joffrey is not going to do wonders for it, and Tyrion has told him that he's not giving up on CR. So Tywin, Olenna, and LF poison Joffrey, accuse Tyrion, and remove Sansa. Tywin gets Tommen on the throne, keeps the Tyrell allies via marriage, and sends Tyrion to the Wall, where he can't claim CR. Meanwhile, his allies marry fArya, which keeps the region out of Tyrell clutches. LF was involved in arranging that marriage, too, which could involve some collusion.

Tywin may not love his family members, but he places family itself very high up on the list of priorities. So Tywin plotting to kill Joffrey is extremely unlikely. Tywin, in fact, tells Tyrion that Joffrey is still a boy and that boys do stupid things, like marry crofter's daughters.

Joffrey is Tywin's grandson and sits the Iron Throne as a Lannister. It strains credulity to think he will weaken his control over the highest political prize in the land by killing off the primary heir and switching to the alternate. Now, if anything happens to Tommen, there goes Lannister control of the Iron Throne. Even if Tywin hates Joffrey with a passion, he would not weaken his political leverage in an act of petty spite. Tywin as Hand is perfectly capable of preventing Joffrey from doing anything that would jeopardize Lannister interests.

Also, if Tywin wanted Tyrion gone, he would be gone. But instead, he names him HotK, thenMoC and then marries him to Sansa, which will make him Lord Regent of Winterfell and Warden of the North. Tyrion will have his own seat and Tywin can then bequeath CR to anyone he wants.

But overall, I hope you at least realize all the speculation necessary in order to support the wine theory:

The poison reacts differently from Cressen to Joff for some reason;

Joff was a threat to Margy, although nothing indicates this, and when M and Lady O say they are not worried, they are lying;

LF knew beforehand all of the twists and turns that put the wine right where it needed to be, or;

Lady O palmed the crystal, cut it up, handed it off to every Tyrell in the room and waited for the right moment, or;

Sansa or Cersei did the poisoning and blocked it out later, or

Tywin did it, or Oberyn

By placing the poison in the wine, we gain much greater consistency:

The poison reacts near instantly in both cases;

Lady O knows exactly where Tyrion's pie will be at just the right moment. She can reach it easily and she just happens to be standing right behind Tyrion as the pie is brought in

The motivations of the two key players are perfectly aligned when getting rid of Tyrion. With Joff, they actually suffer setbacks to their broader goals.

I rarely speak in absolutes on this board, but in this case the evidence is indisputable: there is no way the poison could have been in the wine. It had to be the pie, and that makes Tyrion the target.

[aryagonnakill#2]

^You paint only the picture you want to see. You say that diluting the poison we know nothing about would weaken the symptoms not delay the effects, ok, well obviously as time go's on the strangling gets tighter and tighter, so if it comes on lighter in Joffreys case it would not be noticeable for the first few seconds, which is all we are talking about. You also make the poisoning of Joffreys wine seem much more complicated than it is, all that happened was Lady Olenna took the bead from Sansa hairnet and gave it to Margery who when she held up the goblet to take a drink slipped the poison in.

You also falsely state that the Tyrells somehow loose out with this. They do not loose out at all as advertised all of Feast with Cersei and Margery fighting over Tommen. Joffrey was a mad man who would have likely hurt Margery eventually and at any rate would have continued to do stupid things, marrying Tommen is just easier for the Tyrells, and more chaos is exactly what LF wants. Killing Tyrion does absolutely nothing for the Tyrells as the Lannisters would just have married someone else to Sansa, if they did not accuse her of the crime and just be done with her, and it creates no chaos for LF.

[Ygrain]

Lady O knows exactly where Tyrion's pie will be at just the right moment. She can reach it easily and she just happens to be standing right behind Tyrion as the pie is brought in

For someone who hates to speak in absolutes, you make an awful lot of unsupported statements, like the above. Please, show the quote that Olenna was still standing behind Tyrion after the pie was cut. Because, you know, at the time when Olenna is nearby, there is no pie yet.

[Jasta11]

snipped for brevity

Consider a few things;

-Tyrion actually didn't eat his part of the pie. You present the Wine Plan as risky and open to chance, yet the Pie Plan actually failed. Whereas if there was a Wine Plan, it succeeded.

-Joffrey might not be danger to Marge here and now... but that might change in the long run. He's already proven to be an unhinged, sadistic cunt, and if the Tyrells weren't worried about that, why did they ask Sansa about it in the first place while taking every precaution not to be heard? And it's definitely a matter of utmost importance to the Tyrells that their little girl doesn't get humiliated and cut up, or even killed by her madman of a husband. Especially if, in a few years, Tywin dies and with him the last person who has any hold over Joff.

-Tommen is malleable. Joffrey is not. Killing Tyrion doesn't really weaken House Lannister. Killing Joffrey does, and at this point the Tyrells do have an interest in weakening the Lannisters so they can start taking over. They sure as hell didn't get on that ship only to sit in the Lion's shadow and hope for the best.

-Joffrey dying weakens the Tyrell/Lannister alliance, which helps LF as a strong IT runs counter to his plans to use Sansa and the Vale, whatever ultimate goal he has. He has motive to do it.

-How does LF know that Tyrion is on the verge of revealing all his secrets? Tyrion didn't even say anything to Tywin regarding how LF framed the dwarf with the dagger, and didn't say a word of LF's financial ballet either. Nothing indicates that it was a matter of time until the whole thing is discovered and Tywin calls for LF's head.

-Sansa and Tyrion's marriage is a danger to Tyrell hegemony... yet it still hasn't be consumated, and Bolton rules as Warden of the North. If the Tyrells have the time to kill Joffrey later when he reveals himself as the psycho he is in full, they have the time to wait until Tyrion's son is actually in line to get Winterfell before acting, which isn't anytime soon. That argument works both ways.

-GRRM is probably not an expert on poison. A difference of -literally- seconds in terms of action can easily be explained by such things as Joffrey's dose being smaller (Cressen might have made it stronger because he feared Melissandre's powers? or there's only so much Strangler you fit on an hairnet). Besides, again, this is fantasy poison. It acts however the author wants it to act.

-What's the narrative point of having the truckload of foreshadowing towards the Wine Plan being discarded at some undeterminate point in time so that Martin can go ''haha! gotcha! It was actually in the pie!''. At this point in time it makes no difference whatsoever to anyone, including to Tyrion himself who's far away from Westeros. Even as a ''I actually lied to you about X'' moment coming from LF, it doesn't work, because there are far more dramatic secrets that Sansa can find out about him. Like the fact he probably manipulated Joff to kill Ned, for instance.

Your evidence is not nearly as ironclad as you seem to believe. It raises as many questions as it answers.

[kimim]

...

But overall, I hope you at least realize all the speculation necessary in order to support the wine theory:

The poison reacts differently from Cressen to Joff for some reason;

Joff was a threat to Margy, although nothing indicates this, and when M and Lady O say they are not worried, they are lying;

LF knew beforehand all of the twists and turns that put the wine right where it needed to be, or;

Lady O palmed the crystal, cut it up, handed it off to every Tyrell in the room and waited for the right moment, or;

Sansa or Cersei did the poisoning and blocked it out later, or

Tywin did it, or Oberyn

By placing the poison in the wine, we gain much greater consistency:

The poison reacts near instantly in both cases;

Lady O knows exactly where Tyrion's pie will be at just the right moment. She can reach it easily and she just happens to be standing right behind Tyrion as the pie is brought in

The motivations of the two key players are perfectly aligned when getting rid of Tyrion. With Joff, they actually suffer setbacks to their broader goals.

I rarely speak in absolutes on this board, but in this case the evidence is indisputable: there is no way the poison could have been in the wine. It had to be the pie, and that makes Tyrion the target.

A poison that kills in five seconds in one case can take 45 seconds to kill in another. This is not inconsistency; this is life. People are not administering a measured dose of poison carefully, based on weight, height, medical history, age, etc. They're palming it into whatever's available, and hoping for the best. Even with all that, the time difference for Joffrey and Cressen is less than a minute. This doesn't mean that the poison was in the wine, but it does mean that the timing can't be used to prove that the poison was not in the wine.

Lady O and Margaery have motive: They are concerned about Joff's character, which is why they question Sansa, making certain that they can't be overheard. They discover that Joffrey is a monster. Monsters don't normally make good husbands; "monster" indicates danger to the wife, and to the realm. Margaery and Olenna also know that the Lannisters need them. That means if they can kill Joff at the right time, they will keep their Marg a queen, this time married to a sane boy. Right time would be after marriage (Lady O says Tyrell word is worth more than Lannister gold) but before consummation (consummation can necessitate a long wait; Jeyne Westerling is told to wait two years before remarriage). So they poison Joffrey at the wedding feast, saddle Tyrion with the crime, getting rid of the Lannister hold on the north, and, hey, life's good.

If the wine were poisoned, it could only have been after Joffrey upends the wine already in his chalice on Tyrion's head. Garlan, his wife, and Lady O all have access to the chalice at that moment. Joff and Margaery cut the pigeon pie, Joff walks back to get his now-filled chalice, takes a drink of wine, gobbles up the pie, and dies. This would mean that whoever wanted to poison him waited for a moment of opportunity, found it, and acted.

Re LF: He's the one who suggested the dwarf jousters to Joffrey, and you don't need to be a genius to figure out how those will affect either Joffrey or Tyrion. LF would also know that the pie would be served AFTER the jousting--ie., after nephew and uncle have had a disagreement. Why would LF, who was planning on poisoning Tyrion's pie, risk separating Tyrion from his beloved pie? As it is, Tyrion is on the verge of leaving the hall, pie untouched, when Joffrey approaches him again, demanding that he be a cupbearer.

btw there are real problems with poisoning the pie, too. Can you administer this poison in a pigeon pie, or do you need a more liquid medium? The slices are presumably cut randomly, and served randomly, by numerous people. What would Lady O or her people do? Pay a server to stick a crystal under the crust? Would that work? Grind up the poison nugget, and put it in the cream on Tyrion's pie, AFTER the cream has been served? Cream is usually a creamy white, not purple. Honestly, with this particular poison, wine might be easier than the pie.

Anyhow, this is a mystery. idk who killed Joffrey, or even if Joffrey was supposed to be the victim. I think you have a point here; it'd definitely be more fun and interesting for Tyrion to be the intended victim. I'm having a hard time seeing how this could have been carried out.

[BitsOfBrains]

Also, Joffrey's chalice contained way more wine, the poison was thus more diluted.

Also I believe Cressen was hungry and Joffrey had a full stomach which would also slow down the poison, right?

I do have to say there are a lot of interesting purple wedding theories here I haven't heard before.

Some that are quite good.

I always assumed that giving Sansa the hairnet was to make her an accomplice to the whole thing so she couldn't go running to Cersei (like she did when she found out Ned was sending her home to safety) ASAP.

If Sansa believes herself somehow partly responsible for the purple wedding she is far less likely to tell anyone what she knows about it.

[John Suburbs]

^You paint only the picture you want to see. You say that diluting the poison we know nothing about would weaken the symptoms not delay the effects, ok, well obviously as time go's on the strangling gets tighter and tighter, so if it comes on lighter in Joffreys case it would not be noticeable for the first few seconds, which is all we are talking about. You also make the poisoning of Joffreys wine seem much more complicated than it is, all that happened was Lady Olenna took the bead from Sansa hairnet and gave it to Margery who when she held up the goblet to take a drink slipped the poison in.

You also falsely state that the Tyrells somehow loose out with this. They do not loose out at all as advertised all of Feast with Cersei and Margery fighting over Tommen. Joffrey was a mad man who would have likely hurt Margery eventually and at any rate would have continued to do stupid things, marrying Tommen is just easier for the Tyrells, and more chaos is exactly what LF wants. Killing Tyrion does absolutely nothing for the Tyrells as the Lannisters would just have married someone else to Sansa, if they did not accuse her of the crime and just be done with her, and it creates no chaos for LF.

Why does time go by with Joffrey but not with Cressen? You have a toxic substance and it is introduced exactly the same way to two different people, and yet one is fatal within five seconds while the other goes on for three or four times longer. Speculate all you want, but the fact is you have to make up circumstances to fit your theory. With mine, there is no inconsistency.

Margaery could not have done it. She was nowhere near the chalice after the cutting was complete. And just before the cutting Joff took an even bigger drink with no affect at all.

When you weigh the possibility that Joffrey might hurt Margy someday in the future and the fact that a Tyrell heir to the IT is now at least five years away vs. the likelihood that Tyrion will father a son on Sansa at any moment (nobody knows about their estrangement yet) and thus put Casterly Rock on equal military footing as Highgarden -- headed by a madmen who slaughters smallfolk, burns entire countrysides to the ground and kills every last member of rival houses -- yes, killing Joffrey rather than Tyrion is a major loss for the Tyrells.

And sorry, Lady O lived through the Mad King years when noble lords and ladies were being roasted alive with wildfire. A few knocks in the head by a KG is kid stuff. She's probably done worse than that in her own dungeons.

And how does killing Joffrey produce more chaos for Littlefinger? That just puts Tywin in charge, a master planner, plotter and long-term strategic thinker if ever there was one. Are you suggesting the LF's plan was so detailed that he not only knew exactly where the chalice was going to be after the cutting, and then Tyrion would get blamed rather than Oberyn or someone else, but then Tyrion would escape and kill Tywin too? Wow, he really does have a sharp mind, foretelling the future and everything. And all this business about LF and chaos is hokum anyway. That was just a line he fed to Sansa to cover up the fact that his plan went to hell.

And by the time of the wedding, Lady O knows that Sansa is lost to her. Better she go with Littlefinger that to the Lannisters.

[John Suburbs]

For someone who hates to speak in absolutes, you make an awful lot of unsupported statements, like the above. Please, show the quote that Olenna was still standing behind Tyrion after the pie was cut. Because, you know, at the time when Olenna is nearby, there is no pie yet.

As I said, this is the only time I speak in absolutes on this board.

Lady O's last known position was right behind Tyrion as the latest version of the Rains of Castamere was being sung -- just moments before the pie was brought in. Please show me the quote that says she had moved. Tyrion's pie was delivered almost immediately after the big pie is cut, which strongly suggests that both Olenna and the servant were standing there during the cutting. Plenty of time to slip a crystal into the pointy end -- the only part that is most likely to be eaten after so many courses -- when all eyes are looking up at the pigeons. And it will be eaten. "It is ill luck not the eat the pie."

[John Suburbs]

-Tyrion actually didn't eat his part of the pie. You present the Wine Plan as risky and open to chance, yet the Pie Plan actually failed. Whereas if there was a Wine Plan, it succeeded.

Yes, the pie plan failed because no one could predict a completely random act by a completely heedless king.

With the wine plan, Littlefinger would have to have known ahead of time that:

-- the jousting would produce the desired conflict between J and T; probably a good bet, but by no means a certainty, and any uncertainty in a plan like this adds risk;

-- the conflict would involve the chalice to the point that Tyrion has his hands all over it

-- the chalice would be placed near Tyrion, Garlen, et all right at the crucial moment to deliver the poison -- when all eyes are watching the pigeons -- rather than at the high table near Cersei and Tywin as would be expected

-- Tyrion was able to reach it from across the table just before the poisoning. A foot to the left or right would have meant Garlen, Leonette or someone else would have to get it

-- Tyrion foolishly picks up the chalice and is holding it as Joffrey points at him while dying, giving Cersei the excuse to accuse him

LF is good, but he is not that good, and he does not have the gift of prophecy as far as we can tell. You can speculate that he is magical, but again, more speculation to support a preconceived conclusion.

-Joffrey might not be danger to Marge here and now... but that might change in the long run. He's already proven to be an unhinged, sadistic cunt, and if the Tyrells weren't worried about that, why did they ask Sansa about it in the first place while taking every precaution not to be heard? And it's definitely a matter of utmost importance to the Tyrells that their little girl doesn't get humiliated and cut up, or even killed by her madman of a husband. Especially if, in a few years, Tywin dies and with him the last person who has any hold over Joff.

Yes, Joff's attitude toward Margy will likely change in the long run. But the time to kill Joffrey would be after he gives one or more sons to Margy. Then, the Tyrell link to the IT is secure within the year and they can off him any time they want -- in private and staged to look like an accident. It is inconceivable that Lady O would take such a drastic step as regicide to prevent a distant possibility when a Lannister Lord of Winterfell is a clear and present danger, not just to Margaery but the entire Tyrell House and all the people of the Reach. As the head of a noble house, Lady O knows that highborn girls often have to suffer unpleasant, even abusive, marriages for the good of their houses, and Margy knows this too.

The only reason Lady O would take such a drastic step is if she was convinced that Margy would not survive the night with Joff, and there is simply no evidence anywhere to suggest that either she or Margy were worried about him in any way or that Joff had any hostility toward Margy at all. Reread the whole wedding chapter: he's over the moon at marrying a hottie like Margy rather than a cold fish like Sansa.

And it was Sansa who did not want to be heard, not the Tyrells. They are obviously curious about Joffrey given the conflicting stories they heard at Bitterbridge. But when Sansa tells them the truth, what is Lady's O's reaction? "Oh, that's a pity." Hardly a statement from someone who is now in mortal fear of her granddaughter's life.

And Lady O will kill Joffrey now, and risk not only her head but all the members of her family and the entire 8000-year Tyrell dynasty, just because Tywin might die in the future? Give Lady O a little credit. She knows how to weigh risk against reward.

-Tommen is malleable. Joffrey is not. Killing Tyrion doesn't really weaken House Lannister. Killing Joffrey does, and at this point the Tyrells do have an interest in weakening the Lannisters so they can start taking over. They sure as hell didn't get on that ship only to sit in the Lion's shadow and hope for the best.

Tommen is malleable now because he is a nine year old boy. But he is already showing signs of the wilful man he will become. Joffrey, in fact, is one of the most malleable characters in the book, but only by those who know how to play him, like Littlefinger. Just appeal to has vanity and insecurities and you can get him to do anything you want, and Margy has all the skills she needs to keep him wrapped around her finger -- for a little while at least.

Killing Tyrion prevents Tywin from gaining control of fully half the kingdom, giving him 100,000 swords or more in a few years time. A year ago, Casterly Rock could marshal a host of maybe 20,000, given enough time. Highgarden has been the regional power for literally 8000 years, and this would be the most significant challenge to that hegemony since Aegon landed with his dragons. So yes, a dead Tyrion most definitely weakens House Lannister much more severely than a dead Joffrey, by several orders of magnitude.

-Joffrey dying weakens the Tyrell/Lannister alliance, which helps LF as a strong IT runs counter to his plans to use Sansa and the Vale, whatever ultimate goal he has. He has motive to do it.

How, exactly? The alliance is still in place with Margy married to Tommen. If Littlefinger's goal is chaos, who better to deliver it than Joffrey sitting on the IT? With Tommen as king, Tywin has an even stronger mandate to rule as Hand. At least Joffrey would have been more likely to cause trouble, especially with LF whispering in his ear. And how can you say a strong IT runs counter to his plans and then immediately admit that you don't know what his ultimate goal is? LF has said at different times that he wants both chaos and stability, so how can you possibly say whether dead Joffrey is in his best interests or not?

LF has more motive to kill Tyrion. Unraveling all of his financial dealings will cost him his head, or at the least cost him the millions he has stashed away in the IB, depending on how quickly and covertly Tyrion moves to retrieve it. Any way you look at it, Tyrion is the clear and present danger to LF, not Joffrey.

-How does LF know that Tyrion is on the verge of revealing all his secrets? Tyrion didn't even say anything to Tywin regarding how LF framed the dwarf with the dagger, and didn't say a word of LF's financial ballet either. Nothing indicates that it was a matter of time until the whole thing is discovered and Tywin calls for LF's head.

Please. LF knows that Tyrion has a first-class brain. Why else do you think he's been trying to get rid of him since the beginning of Thrones? If anyone can figure it out, it's Tyrion. Even Jaime starts to puzzle it out when he wonders why there are so many gaolers, undergaolors and guards for the black cells when there are only six prisoners. You can bet that some of that money is making its way back to Littlefinger.

And Tyrion did bring up the matter of the dagger with LF (early in Clash, I believe) and, from Tyrion's POV anyway, it was clear that LF knew exactly what they were talking about.

-Sansa and Tyrion's marriage is a danger to Tyrell hegemony... yet it still hasn't be consumated, and Bolton rules as Warden of the North. If the Tyrells have the time to kill Joffrey later when he reveals himself as the psycho he is in full, they have the time to wait until Tyrion's son is actually in line to get Winterfell before acting, which isn't anytime soon. That argument works both ways.

Nobody knows that Sansa and Tyrion are estranged, not until Shae reveals it at the trial. And if Sansa bears a son, it will precede the Bolton claim, so they will have to step down or risk a war with the crown.

And Lady O does not have time to kill Tyrion. She is leaving for HG right after the wedding, and Tyrion and Sansa will be leaving for Winterfell soon. It would take months, if not years, for her to arrange another hit from 1000 leagues away, and the heir to WF could happen at any moment. Why wait to kill the son later when you have the perfect opportunity to kill the father now?

-GRRM is probably not an expert on poison. A difference of -literally- seconds in terms of action can easily be explained by such things as Joffrey's dose being smaller (Cressen might have made it stronger because he feared Melissandre's powers? or there's only so much Strangler you fit on an hairnet). Besides, again, this is fantasy poison. It acts however the author wants it to act.

GRRM is the most careful, thoroughly researched writer in a generation. It is inconceivable that he would not know the basic mechanics of poisoning and the affect that dissolving the poison would have on the body.

The difference is literally seconds, but it amounts to several orders of magnitude longer: Maybe five seconds for Cressen and half a minute for Joffrey -- again, from initial ingestion to the loss of speech.

Joffrey's dose was not smaller. Cressen dropped a "flake" of a crystal into the goblet. Joffrey had the entire thing, unless you believe Lady O squirrelled herself away in the banquet room somewhere and cut the crystal into tiny pieces to hand out to all her family. Cressen's stash was described as about the size of seeds, which technically could be anything from a poppy seed to a coconut. But I think we can safely assume the hairnet crystals were no bigger than quarter carats -- half at most.

And again, the point is, with the wine theory you need all of these suppositions about wine volume, crystal size, body chemistry, etc. to make it work. With the pie, there is nothing to explain away: the poison works almost instantly both times.

-What's the narrative point of having the truckload of foreshadowing towards the Wine Plan being discarded at some undeterminate point in time so that Martin can go ''haha! gotcha! It was actually in the pie!''. At this point in time it makes no difference whatsoever to anyone, including to Tyrion himself who's far away from Westeros. Even as a ''I actually lied to you about X'' moment coming from LF, it doesn't work, because there are far more dramatic secrets that Sansa can find out about him. Like the fact he probably manipulated Joff to kill Ned, for instance.

Are you kidding me? Literary sleight of hand is as old as Gilgamesh. It's what the modern mystery is based on (it wasn't the dashing, young Reginald nor his quiet sister Regina, but the butler all along!), and this is what we have here, a murder mystery.

This is the same author who had us believing Cersie and Jaime killed Jon Arryn and then sprung the truth on us after nearly three full novels. They guy who is still toying with us about Jon's parentage, if not Tyrion's, Cersei's, Jaime's, Dany's and countless others. And you don't think he likes "aha" moments? Please.

And LF didn't lie because he is afraid of Sansa knowing his secrets. He lied because he needs her total buy-in to play the Alayne Stone piece, and she isn't likely to go along with it unless she has total confidence that LF knows what he's doing. So he couldn't very well say, "Gee, we meant to kill your husband but killed the king instead and now everyone thinks you are guilty of regicide. But don't worry, sweetling, just do everything I say and you'll be all right."

In closing, I'll leave with a few words from our dearly departed, beloved boy king: "It's, kof, the pie, noth- kof, pie."

[John Suburbs]

A poison that kills in five seconds in one case can take 45 seconds to kill in another. This is not inconsistency; this is life. People are not administering a measured dose of poison carefully, based on weight, height, medical history, age, etc. They're palming it into whatever's available, and hoping for the best. Even with all that, the time difference for Joffrey and Cressen is less than a minute. This doesn't mean that the poison was in the wine, but it does mean that the timing can't be used to prove that the poison was not in the wine.

Sorry, you are just flat wrong here. Poison is inconsistent only if there are discrepancies in its composition, the delivery mechanism or some other factor. But Cressen states that the process for making the Strangler is very lengthy and very precise, and since we are talking about the same medium for both deliveries and the soft tissue of the throat is largely the same between an old man and a young boy, there is no rational reason to think there would be such a lengthy time discrepancy. And as I stated above, Joffrey actually gets a larger does of poison than Cressen.

And even if Joffrey's poison was weaker than Cressen's, that still would not delay its action, it would just weaken the effect. Think of a shot glass filled with ammonia. It would burn your innards in an instant and most likely kill you. Pour the shot into a big glass of water and it still burns you instantly, just not as badly. Place a drop of ammonia in the glass and its effect might not even be noticeable, but then it wouldn't reconstitute itself in your body and kill you.

So no matter how you rationalize the strength of the poison or the amount of wine, the affect would be the same: a less sever poisoning, but just as fast.

But again, the point is that with the pie you don't need to speculate about all this. Both poisons work exactly the same.

Lady O and Margaery have motive: They are concerned about Joff's character, which is why they question Sansa, making certain that they can't be overheard. They discover that Joffrey is a monster. Monsters don't normally make good husbands; "monster" indicates danger to the wife, and to the realm. Margaery and Olenna also know that the Lannisters need them. That means if they can kill Joff at the right time, they will keep their Marg a queen, this time married to a sane boy. Right time would be after marriage (Lady O says Tyrell word is worth more than Lannister gold) but before consummation (consummation can necessitate a long wait; Jeyne Westerling is told to wait two years before remarriage). So they poison Joffrey at the wedding feast, saddle Tyrion with the crime, getting rid of the Lannister hold on the north, and, hey, life's good.

But to believe this, you have Lady O not as a player in the geopolitical game of thrones, but as a nervous old gramma whose only concern is her granddaughter. She would have to be completely oblivious or wholly indifferent to the dramatic change that has just taken place on the map that now puts Casterly Rock on par with Highgarden in terms of soldiers, resources, trade and a whole list of other factors. This is in complete contrast to the character that has emerged on the page. Lady O may not be the smartest player in the game, but she is nobody's fool. She knows CR is ascending and it is a direct threat to her house, her family and her realm.

At no time does Lady O or Margy refer to Joffrey as a monster, nor do they express the slightest concern for M's safety. And at no time does Joffrey express any hostility toward her. To think otherwise assumes they are lying to Sansa, and there is nothing in the text to suggest that they are.

There is no reason to kill Joff at the wedding and every reason to wait until a royal heir is born. Why risk the certainty of a Tyrell heir to the throne within a year to the vagaries of a five-year plan during which anything can happen. Honestly, you must think Lady O is an utter fool.

If the wine were poisoned, it could only have been after Joffrey upends the wine already in his chalice on Tyrion's head. Garlan, his wife, and Lady O all have access to the chalice at that moment. Joff and Margaery cut the pigeon pie, Joff walks back to get his now-filled chalice, takes a drink of wine, gobbles up the pie, and dies. This would mean that whoever wanted to poison him waited for a moment of opportunity, found it, and acted.

Sorry, wrong again. After Tyrion gets doused, Joffrey orders him to refill the chalice, which Tyrion does to about 3/4 full, and then Joffrey drinks long and deep. Then he goes to the cutting, so we know the wine cannot be poisoned at that point. Then the chalice sits front and center at the high table in front of the entire room for the entire cutting and no one but Joffrey and Tyrion touch it from there. So any poisoning would have to have been done during the cutting, with Tyrion and Sansa standing right there (practically in Sansa lap), and yet no one sees Garlen or anyone else reach across the table to drop something over the lip, which is three feet above the surface on the opposite side of the table. Even if this could be done, can you imagine Lady O risking her head, the heads of all her family and her entire house on such a gamble? There are more than 200 pairs of eyes in that room. If just one person sees, it's game over for the 8000-year-old Tyrell line.

Re LF: He's the one who suggested the dwarf jousters to Joffrey, and you don't need to be a genius to figure out how those will affect either Joffrey or Tyrion. LF would also know that the pie would be served AFTER the jousting--ie., after nephew and uncle have had a disagreement. Why would LF, who was planning on poisoning Tyrion's pie, risk separating Tyrion from his beloved pie? As it is, Tyrion is on the verge of leaving the hall, pie untouched, when Joffrey approaches him again, demanding that he be a cupbearer.

Sure, you can surmise that the dwarf jousting would produce a spat between J and T. How certain would you be that it would involve the chalice? That Joffrey would dump wine on Tyrion? That the chalice would wind up exactly where it needed to be at exactly the right moment in order to poison it? For people who dismiss lady O as an imbecile, you seem to have no problem giving LF magical prophetic abilities. Where in the text do you get that from?

And as for just waiting for the right opportunity, do you really think Lady O would sign on to a plan that could result in the extermination of her entire house if LF were to say: "Just grab the poison off the hairnet and wing it from there."?

On the other hand, everyone knows exactly when the pie will be served and exactly who will get which piece and even the exact portion of pie that Tyrion will take his one and only bite. No guesswork, and virtually no risk that anyone other than Tyrion would get the poision. As I've discussed above, you can't say that about the wine, as Margy could very well have taken a fatal drink while Lady O stood and watched.

btw there are real problems with poisoning the pie, too. Can you administer this poison in a pigeon pie, or do you need a more liquid medium? The slices are presumably cut randomly, and served randomly, by numerous people. What would Lady O or her people do? Pay a server to stick a crystal under the crust? Would that work? Grind up the poison nugget, and put it in the cream on Tyrion's pie, AFTER the cream has been served? Cream is usually a creamy white, not purple. Honestly, with this particular poison, wine might be easier than the pie.

No, these problems are imaginary. The pie is hot, moist and dark in color (you know that pigeon pie is not chicken pot pie, I hope). So any dissolution of the poison at the point would be much slower than in the wine, and indeed accounts for the fact that Joffrey notices that it is dry. Also note that Joffrey's violent coughing does not start until he takes a drink of wine, which introduces both the extra liquid and the alcohol needed to speed up the dissolution process.

Tyrion's pie is served immediately after the cutting ceremony, which indicates that there is a servant right there waiting to serve him, with Lady O right there as well, based on her last known position before the cutting ceremony. How you can possible imagine the wine as easier than the pie is beyond me. One is a three-foot chalice sitting front and center before a large, crowded room, the other is behind the table on a dish being held by a servant who is most likely looking up at the pigeons. Lady O can easily do it herself in a split second -- no reach across tables, no need to involve anyone else, no plop into liquid or clinking of crystal on gold.

Anyhow, this is a mystery. idk who killed Joffrey, or even if Joffrey was supposed to be the victim. I think you have a point here; it'd definitely be more fun and interesting for Tyrion to be the intended victim. I'm having a hard time seeing how this could have been carried out.

No mystery at all here, other than why readers continue to ascribe their own hatred of Joffrey to key players in the book. Joffrey's mistreatment of Sansa is little known outside the capital, and even then it doesn't amount to much as far as mad, evil kings go. So once you start to look at the situation the way LF and Lady O would, from a geopolitical standpoint rather than a personal one, and then stop trying to invent scenarios to support a preconceived conclusion rather than let facts be your guide, the truth is clear:

"It's, kof, the pie, noth- kof, the pie."

[Lord Wraith]

And how does killing Joffrey produce more chaos for Littlefinger? That just puts Tywin in charge, a master planner, plotter and long-term strategic thinker if ever there was one. Are you suggesting the LF's plan was so detailed that he not only knew exactly where the chalice was going to be after the cutting, and then Tyrion would get blamed rather than Oberyn or someone else, but then Tyrion would escape and kill Tywin too? Wow, he really does have a sharp mind, foretelling the future and everything. And all this business about LF and chaos is hokum anyway. That was just a line he fed to Sansa to cover up the fact that his plan went to hell.

Tywin was already in charge. LF assisting Olenna isn't about chaos but becoming her ally.

[John Suburbs]

Also I believe Cressen was hungry and Joffrey had a full stomach which would also slow down the poison, right?

Again, you're assuming that the poison works systemically -- that is, it is absorbed into the blood through the stomach, circulated throughout the body and then deposited in the throat where it takes affect. But clearly this is not the case, since then it would take several minutes to work, not seconds. And how on earth could it pass through the throat once with no affect, but then go to work only after it is delivered by blood?

The poison is clearly topical in Cressen's case and goes to work immediately upon hitting the soft tissue of his throat. Joffrey takes a long, healthy drink of supposed poisoned wine and doesn't show even the slightest effect until he eats the pie, and even then, it's just a little kof, and we're already perhaps 20 seconds after the poison was supposed to have entered his throat. He then goes on for another 10 or 15 seconds before he reaches the point that Cressen was at in five seconds -- on the ground and unable to speak.

I always assumed that giving Sansa the hairnet was to make her an accomplice to the whole thing so she couldn't go running to Cersei (like she did when she found out Ned was sending her home to safety) ASAP.

If Sansa believes herself somehow partly responsible for the purple wedding she is far less likely to tell anyone what she knows about it.

Giving the hairnet to Sansa at the end of Clash is merely LF putting his pieces in place. Like the Kettleblacks, he arranges his pieces before he fully knows how they will be used. In this way, Sansa does not know what it's all about, so she can't tell anyone, and Dontos only knows that the hairnet is important, but he doesn't know why.

[John Suburbs]

Tywin was already in charge. LF assisting Olenna isn't about chaos but becoming her ally.

Well, you stated that killing Joffrey produces more chaos in KL, which is what LF wants. But how do you reason that Tommen on the throne with Tywin as hand is more chaotic that Joffrey on the throne with Tywin as hand? Joffrey is more chaotic than Tommen, no?

LF and Lady O worked together because killing Tyrion was in their mutual interests. But I wouldn't go so far as to call them allies.

[Lord Wraith]

Well, you stated that killing Joffrey produces more chaos in KL, which is what LF wants. But how do you reason that Tommen on the throne with Tywin as hand is more chaotic that Joffrey on the throne with Tywin as hand? Joffrey is more chaotic than Tommen, no?

LF and Lady O worked together because killing Tyrion was in their mutual interests. But I wouldn't go so far as to call them allies.

The chaos argument wasn't me that was my first post in this thread. I figure there are very few true alliances in ASOIAF, what I meant was now Olenna thinks Littlefinger is her friend. Littlefinger wants everyone to think that so he can play them off each other. Also I'd say that the chaos you control is better than the chaos you can't. No one could really control Joff which is why he was removed.

[Ygrain]

As I said, this is the only time I speak in absolutes on this board.

Lady O's last known position was right behind Tyrion as the latest version of the Rains of Castamere was being sung -- just moments before the pie was brought in. Please show me the quote that says she had moved. Tyrion's pie was delivered almost immediately after the big pie is cut, which strongly suggests that both Olenna and the servant were standing there during the cutting. Plenty of time to slip a crystal into the pointy end -- the only part that is most likely to be eaten after so many courses -- when all eyes are looking up at the pigeons. And it will be eaten. "It is ill luck not the eat the pie."

Nonsense, and inconsistent argumentation.

“Your Grace.” Lord Tywin’s voice was impeccably correct. “They are bringing in the pie. Your sword is needed.”

“The pie?” Joffrey took his queen by the hand. “Come, my lady, it’s the pie.”

The guests stood, shouting and applauding and smashing their wine cups together as the great pie made its slow way down the length of the hall, wheeled along by a half-dozen beaming cooks. Two yards across it was, crusty and golden brown, and they could hear squeaks and thumpings coming from inside it.

King Joffrey and his queen met the pie below the dais. As Joff drew his sword, Margaery laid a hand on his arm to restrain him. “Widow’s Wail was not meant for slicing pies.”

“True.” Joffrey lifted his voice. “Ser Ilyn, your sword!”

From the shadows at the back of the hall, Ser Ilyn Payne appeared. The specter at the feast, thought Tyrion as he watched the King’s justice stride forward, gaunt and grim.

...

Ser Ilyn bowed before the king and queen, reached back over his shoulder, and drew forth six feet of ornate silver bright with runes. He knelt to offer the huge blade to Joffrey, hilt first; points of red fire winked from ruby eyes on the pommel, a chunk of dragonglass carved in the shape of a grinning skull.

So, the pie moves slowly across the hall till it finally arrives before the dais, then Illyn Payne is summoned to deliver his sword. According to you, this whole time Olenna is still standing there, for some reason not returning to her place, and there is no comment about it. And, this whole time is "moments", whereas Joffrey saying “My uncle hasn’t eaten his pigeon pie.”, “It’s ill luck not to eat the pie,” “See, it’s good.” before the poison starts working is such an awfully long time, supposedly.

Also, pray, when does the invisible Olenna put the poison into the pie?

A serving man placed a slice of hot pigeon pie in front of Tyrion and covered it with a spoon of lemon cream. The pigeons were well and truly cooked in this pie, but he found them no more appetizing than the white ones fluttering about the hall. Sansa was not eating either. “You’re deathly pale, my lady,” Tyrion said. “You need a breath of cool air, and I need a fresh doublet.” He stood and offered her his hand. “Come.”

I hope you're not claiming that the supposed poisoning of the pie took place at this moment when Tyrion has the pie right in front of him and sees what is going on with it. Right after that, though, he is about to leave, apparently not going to eat the pie any moment soon, and given the disrespect that he's known to be repeatedly showing to good manners, the king and just about anything, I don't think how one could reasonably presume that he might eat the pie when he gets back, or that the servants don't carry it away meanwhile as they serve the following courses.

[John Suburbs]

The chaos argument wasn't me that was my first post in this thread. I figure there are very few true alliances in ASOIAF, what I meant was now Olenna thinks Littlefinger is her friend. Littlefinger wants everyone to think that so he can play them off each other. Also I'd say that the chaos you control is better than the chaos you can't. No one could really control Joff which is why he was removed.

No, Lady O is not so foolish as to consider LF her friend. Please give the woman some credit. She has been doing this a long time and is one of the cagiest players in the game. She took advantage of a situation in which her interests and LF's were aligned, nothing more. She doesn't trust him any more than she trusts Tywin or considers him a friend. She may or may not plot with him again, depending on her situation.

And course Joffrey can be controlled. You just have to massage his ego and play up to has vanities and insecurities, just like LF does. The definition of chaos is complete disorder and confusion, so there is no such thing as chaos you control.

[John Suburbs]

Nonsense, and inconsistent argumentation.

“Your Grace.” Lord Tywin’s voice was impeccably correct. “They are bringing in the pie. Your sword is needed.”

“The pie?” Joffrey took his queen by the hand. “Come, my lady, it’s the pie.”

The guests stood, shouting and applauding and smashing their wine cups together as the great pie made its slow way down the length of the hall, wheeled along by a half-dozen beaming cooks. Two yards across it was, crusty and golden brown, and they could hear squeaks and thumpings coming from inside it.

King Joffrey and his queen met the pie below the dais. As Joff drew his sword, Margaery laid a hand on his arm to restrain him. “Widow’s Wail was not meant for slicing pies.”

“True.” Joffrey lifted his voice. “Ser Ilyn, your sword!”

From the shadows at the back of the hall, Ser Ilyn Payne appeared. The specter at the feast, thought Tyrion as he watched the King’s justice stride forward, gaunt and grim.

...

Ser Ilyn bowed before the king and queen, reached back over his shoulder, and drew forth six feet of ornate silver bright with runes. He knelt to offer the huge blade to Joffrey, hilt first; points of red fire winked from ruby eyes on the pommel, a chunk of dragonglass carved in the shape of a grinning skull.

So, the pie moves slowly across the hall till it finally arrives before the dais, then Illyn Payne is summoned to deliver his sword. According to you, this whole time Olenna is still standing there, for some reason not returning to her place, and there is no comment about it. And, this whole time is "moments", whereas Joffrey saying “My uncle hasn’t eaten his pigeon pie.”, “It’s ill luck not to eat the pie,” “See, it’s good.” before the poison starts working is such an awfully long time, supposedly.

Lol, but you still have no text anywhere that says she turned around and went back to her seat. She's always playing up that frail, old gramma persona, so it wouldn't be unusual for her to want to be standing to get some circulation back into her legs. And the whole rest of the room is standing as well, so sure, nobody, least of all Tyrion, notices that Lady O is standing there the whole time. Not only possible, but highly plausible. Remember, the only reason Tyrion notices her the first time is because she speaks.

Also, pray, when does the invisible Olenna put the poison into the pie?

A serving man placed a slice of hot pigeon pie in front of Tyrion and covered it with a spoon of lemon cream. The pigeons were well and truly cooked in this pie, but he found them no more appetizing than the white ones fluttering about the hall. Sansa was not eating either. “You’re deathly pale, my lady,” Tyrion said. “You need a breath of cool air, and I need a fresh doublet.” He stood and offered her his hand. “Come.”

I hope you're not claiming that the supposed poisoning of the pie took place at this moment when Tyrion has the pie right in front of him and sees what is going on with it. Right after that, though, he is about to leave, apparently not going to eat the pie any moment soon, and given the disrespect that he's known to be repeatedly showing to good manners, the king and just about anything, I don't think how one could reasonably presume that he might eat the pie when he gets back, or that the servants don't carry it away meanwhile as they serve the following courses.

The pie is cut, doves burst out, the crowd roars, the music starts again, and Joffrey takes Margy in his arms and "whirled her about, merrily" . Then the pie is placed in front of Tyrion -- this all takes place in a matter of seconds. So the servant had to be standing at the ready during the cutting with either pie in hand or pieces for each guest lined up on a rear table, in which case the poisoning is even easier. So now we have the pie, the servant and Lady O right behind Tyrion's chair, and more likely than not the servant is looking up at the pigeons flying around the rafters -- just for a split second, which is all Lady O needs to pinch the crystal into the front corner of the pie.

Are you honestly trying to argue that this is so vastly difficult, but a long reach across the table to the top of a three-foot chalice that is sitting directly in front of both Tyrion and Sansa, plus another 200 people down below, is imperceptible and oh so easily done? Please.

[Ygrain]

Lol, but you still have no text anywhere that says she turned around and went back to her seat. She's always playing up that frail, old gramma persona, so it wouldn't be unusual for her to want to be standing to get some circulation back into her legs. And the whole rest of the room is standing as well, so sure, nobody, least of all Tyrion, notices that Lady O is standing there the whole time. Not only possible, but highly plausible. Remember, the only reason Tyrion notices her the first time is because she speaks.

Oh? Can you please show how you surmise that Tyrion somehow failed to take note of Olenna from

Queen Margaery appeared suddenly at Joffrey’s elbow. “My sweet king,” the Tyrell girl entreated, “come, return to your place, there’s another singer waiting.”

“Alaric of Eysen,” said Lady Olenna Tyrell, leaning on her cane and taking no more notice of the wine-soaked dwarf than her granddaughter had done. “I do so hope he plays us ‘The Rains of Castamere.’ It has been an hour, I’ve forgotten how it goes.”

which is all about Olenna at that point?

She may have remained standing there instead of returning to her place, but it is absolutely unsupported to claim that she must have.

The pie is cut, doves burst out, the crowd roars, the music starts again, and Joffrey takes Margy in his arms and "whirled her about, merrily" . Then the pie is placed in front of Tyrion -- this all takes place in a matter of seconds.

And before that, the wedding pie was travelling across the hall, slowly. So, no, it is not mere moments between Olenna's appearance and serving the pie

So the servant had to be standing at the ready during the cutting with either pie in hand

Ah, BS. Ever cut a pie or something? How long do you think it takes? Or do you think that there is a single servant serving the whole royal table?

or pieces for each guest lined up on a rear table, in which case the poisoning is even easier.

This is a medieval feast, in a crowded hall. No rear tables, no special pieces. The items of food are brought whole and cut right on the table - as we can see in the series time and again.

So now we have the pie, the servant and Lady O right behind Tyrion's chair

Ah, so now we have Lady O right behind Tyrion's chair? Nice fanfiction there.

and more likely than not the servant is looking up at the pigeons flying around the rafters

A guy serving guests at the royal table not focusing on his work and risking that he might spill the sauce or something and anger them? Even better.

just for a split second, which is all Lady O needs to pinch the crystal into the front corner of the pie.

You should try to slip something into the plate of a person who is just looking at it. - Oh, BTW, when did Olenna retreat in that short moment before Tyrion decided he was not going to eat?

Are you honestly trying to argue that this is so vastly difficult, but a long reach across the table to the top of a three-foot chalice that is sitting directly in front of both Tyrion and Sansa, plus another 200 people down below, is imperceptible and oh so easily done? Please.

He and Sansa had been seated far to the king’s right, beside Ser Garlan Tyrell and his wife, the Lady Leonette. A dozen others sat closer to Joffrey

In other words, Tyrion is seated far from the centre of the royal table.

Joffrey took the wedding chalice one-handed, drank deep, and set it on the table.

The chalice is within an arm's reach for a person of normal height. And, as is pointed out later,

the king and queen had just opened the wedding pie, every eye was on them or those thrice-damned doves. No one was watching the wine cup

[Clegane'sPup]

To lighten things up a bit, it would be comical if drunken Joffrey got his just desserts, and actually choked on hand full of pie.

[Clegane'sPup]

As to the topic "Was LF lying about the Purple Wedding" I think yes, because that is what he does. He uses situations to meet his own needs. He started his plan back when Sansa saved Dontos. Planted the note, had Dontos deliver the hairnet and continue to meet with Sansa. His plan was to get Sansa out of KL. Why, I don't know. Someone threw a wrench in his plan by trying to wed Sansa to what's his name. LF in turn snitched to Tywin. Tywin married Sansa off to Tyrion. Another wrench in LF's plan. LF whispers in Joff's ear about what great fun it would be to humiliate Tyrion, thereby causing chaos so that Dontos could whisk Sansa away.

Or LF adjusted his plan, wanting Sansa to be a widow. Target Tyrion.

Or Joff was punished by Tywin.

Or the Tyrells thought dead Joffrey, long live Tommen.

:dunno: