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What if? Robb at the Green Fork


GallowsKnight

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While the Whipsering Woods and The Battle of the camps was a great success, I'm wondering what you guys think would have happened had Robb struck at Tywin head on once he had gain the freys?

He'd have all the foot and cavalry. As well as surprise Frey reinforcements.

I think his chance of failure is higher but had he succeeded and killed/captured Tywin, in the long term the war might have been won by the starks.

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While the Whipsering Woods and The Battle of the camps was a great success, I'm wondering what you guys think would have happened had Robb struck at Tywin head on once he had gain the freys?

He'd have all the foot and cavalry. As well as surprise Frey reinforcements.

I think his chance of failure is higher but had he succeeded and killed/captured Tywin, in the long term the war might have been won by the starks.

First of all that means Riverrun falls to Jaime's army. Second, the whole point of getting the Freys to join was so they could cross to relieve Riverrun. Third, victory against Tywin's host is by no means guaranteed. Even if they do win, Tywin's a competent enough commander to prevent his whole army from being destroyed and will retire in good order the moment things start to go against him. So unless the manage to bag Tywin, which is unlikely given his tendency to command the reserve from the rear, this scenario would only make things even worse for the North as it would deprive them of the Riverlords as allies.

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First of all that means Riverrun falls to Jaime's army. Second, the whole point of getting the Freys to join was so they could cross to relieve Riverrun. Third, victory against Tywin's host is by no means guaranteed. Even if they do win, Tywin's a competent enough commander to prevent his whole army from being destroyed and will retire in good order the moment things start to go against him. So unless the manage to bag Tywin, which is unlikely given his tendency to command the reserve from the rear, this scenario would only make things even worse for the North as it would deprive them of the Riverlords as allies.

Good points.

1. Would it really mean the loss of RR. Jaime would still have to storm it.

2. I know but extra troops is still a nice bonus

3. I know its uncertain. Just how Ww was a risk. I'm not saying that it's better just discussing alt universes because its fun

I mean even if Tywin beats Robb couldnt it be better in the long run if Robb suffered an easy loss and was made to bend the knee and make peace with lots of hostages than the complete annihilation after destroying two Lannister hosts and showing Tywin up.

Theres Wildlings, Ironborn, Aegon, Dany and Others to worry about.

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I mean even if Tywin beats Robb couldnt it be better in the long run if Robb suffered an easy loss and was made to bend the knee and make peace with lots of hostages than the complete annihilation after destroying two Lannister hosts and showing Tywin up.

Well I'm sure we can all agree that Robb and the North's eventual fate was worse than almost anything a battle could have brought (being captured by the Boltons, assuming they would still rebel, is one thing that might be worse). But following that logic, giving up Ned, Sansa and Arya could be said to have been a better course of action.

As it turns out, WW and BotC were strategic masterpieces that put A LOT of pressure on Tywin.

Meeting the Lannister host head-on at the Green Fork would most likely have led to some sort of stalemate - the armies seemed relatively balanced, with Tywin having the advantage of choosing the battlefield, as well as more heavy cavalry than Robb.

It's unlikely that it would have let to the destruction of Tywin's host, something that relieving Riverrun, and blocking the path to the Westerlands effectively does (for a while, anyway).

I would think that, barring something extraordinary, there would be a lot of fighting, a lot of dying, and at the end of the day, the armies would withdraw, both bloodied but neither broken. Eventually Riverrun would fall to Jaime (marching on the Green Fork effectively prevents Robb from reaching Riverrun anytime soon, even if he turned his host around). That's assuming the Riverlords would stay by him if he were to effectively give up on Riverrun, something that he couldn't do for a number of reasons (family, duty, honor and all that).

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While the Whipsering Woods and The Battle of the camps was a great success, I'm wondering what you guys think would have happened had Robb struck at Tywin head on once he had gain the freys?

He'd have all the foot and cavalry. As well as surprise Frey reinforcements.

I think his chance of failure is higher but had he succeeded and killed/captured Tywin, in the long term the war might have been won by the starks.

I kind of agree with what you said, however the problem for Robb would be that he'd face a very cautious and methodical Tywin. Note that when Tyrion approach the Lannister camp with his guardsmen he comes up against, if I recall, an actual barricade across the road, and loads of sentires. Robb would find his favorite ambush tactics a great deal harder to pull off.

In an pitched field battle, I imagine that it would be a close one for either side, but Tywin would have the advantage in that he don't need to seek battle while Robb, who is short on time and, if I've understood the situation correct, must prove himself somewhat to his bannermen would be forced to seek battle, and thus Tywin could pick many of the circumstances for that battle.

Of course if Robb DID manage to capture of kill Tywin the war is over.

Note that this is a revision of earlier comments made by me because I've come to the conclusion that without Tywin the Lannisters would be torn appart by Cersei and Tyrion, with Jaime as the only possible hope for a glue between these two.

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I kind of agree with what you said, however the problem for Robb would be that he'd face a very cautious and methodical Tywin. Note that when Tyrion approach the Lannister camp with his guardsmen he comes up against, if I recall, an actual barricade across the road, and loads of sentires. Robb would find his favorite ambush tactics a great deal harder to pull off.

In an pitched field battle, I imagine that it would be a close one for either side, but Tywin would have the advantage in that he don't need to seek battle while Robb, who is short on time and, if I've understood the situation correct, must prove himself somewhat to his bannermen would be forced to seek battle, and thus Tywin could pick many of the circumstances for that battle.

Of course if Robb DID manage to capture of kill Tywin the war is over.

Note that this is a revision of earlier comments made by me because I've come to the conclusion that without Tywin the Lannisters would be torn appart by Cersei and Tyrion, with Jaime as the only possible hope for a glue between these two.

Don't forget kevan he eventually shows he's also a good ruler in his own right and not just a good subordinate with tywin dead I'm not sure Jaime would be in command. Cersei would likely revoke tyrions handship? name a new hand probably Jaime or kevan I'm not so sure the wars over if worst case scenario green fork for the lannisters with tywin dead and his host shattered the remains limp to Jaime host so Robb's weakened army has to fight a reinforced Jaime with staffords force actually existing and riverun possibly captured by Jaime.

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Tywin's tactic was to hope Robb commits his forces to the weak left I belive and then drive him to the river. Robb is not as cautious as Roose and he would have led the attack so I feel Tywin capturing Robb would be much more likely than the other way around.

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Don't forget kevan he eventually shows he's also a good ruler in his own right and not just a good subordinate with tywin dead I'm not sure Jaime would be in command. Cersei would likely revoke tyrions handship? name a new hand probably Jaime or kevan I'm not so sure the wars over if worst case scenario green fork for the lannisters with tywin dead and his host shattered the remains limp to Jaime host so Robb's weakened army has to fight a reinforced Jaime with staffords force actually existing and riverun possibly captured by Jaime.

True that Kevan is capable, but given that Tywin's army would have been defeated far inside hostile territory and it required a forced march by Tywin to have any hope of reaching Jaime, I don't think that to many Westerland soldiers would make it back to Jaime's host. And that's provided that Jaime stays in the area and don't move when he learns of Tywin's defeat, which I think its safe to say that he would have done.

The big problem that I however see is not the number of soldiers on the Lion's side but a lack of clear leadership and strategic skills. Tywin can bring his skills to bear on the problems without having to worry very much over internal strife within House Lannister. Casterly Rock would most likely fall to Jaime, who is reckless and aggressive and Tyrion and would have to deal with Cersei all the time in addition to solve the threats to House Lannister. As I see it it would mean that the Lannisters would spend a lot of time and energy on squabbles and internal strife when and Robb would both be in a positon to lure Jaime to himself as well as having Renly's, and later Stannis', army coming up from the south. To be honest I it would require Cersei and Joffrey suddenly dying and then an extreme ammount of luck for the Lannisters to take themselves out of that one. :(

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Putting a bit more thought into this... alternatively, a stalemate at the Green Fork or even a Lannister victory could end up better for the North in the long run. Riverrun falls to Jaime and Robb is forced to retreat as Jaime's army is coming up to reinforce Tywin. Where's he going to fall back to? Moat Cailin. Tywin will probably try to tokenly besiege it, but he's too shrewd to order an all out assault against it. So Robb's army remains in the North. This means the Ironborn are less likely to attack the North as well. Not only do they still have Theon, but if Robb's armies are nearby there's no easy raiding to be had. In fact it's possible Balon may end up repeating his last rebellion and opening his campaign by attacking Lannisport again since the Lannister armies are all away from home. Given Stafford Lannister was able to raise a 3rd Lannister army at Casterly Rock in quick order in the books, I don't think they'd have much success though.



The rest of the war of the five kings is going to keep on going though, so Tywin can't keep his forces up North indefinitely. I suspect he leaves Jaime with a token force to keep the Northerners from crossing the Neck and eventually heads back south to King's Landing. Stannis and Renly are going to be threatening the capitol soon enough after all. If things go roughly as they do against Renly and Stannis as they did in the novels, Robb still may be in a better position. Winterfell never fell, his armies are still roughly in tact. Also given he didn't declare himself King in the North following his victories, there's a chance Tywin may end up negotiating a truce with him rather than bog his armies down indefinitely in a northern campaign. Robb wouldn't be the first Stark to bend the knee after all.


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Putting a bit more thought into this... alternatively, a stalemate at the Green Fork or even a Lannister victory could end up better for the North in the long run. Riverrun falls to Jaime and Robb is forced to retreat as Jaime's army is coming up to reinforce Tywin. Where's he going to fall back to? Moat Cailin. Tywin will probably try to tokenly besiege it, but he's too shrewd to order an all out assault against it. So Robb's army remains in the North. This means the Ironborn are less likely to attack the North as well. Not only do they still have Theon, but if Robb's armies are nearby there's no easy raiding to be had. In fact it's possible Balon may end up repeating his last rebellion and opening his campaign by attacking Lannisport again since the Lannister armies are all away from home. Given Stafford Lannister was able to raise a 3rd Lannister army at Casterly Rock in quick order in the books, I don't think they'd have much success though.

There is no guarantee that Riverrun will fall. Jaimie would probably break the siege to either join with his father or try to trap Robb between them . He could lose thousands of soldiers storming the castle and that would be waste of manpower that is needed against Robb and later Renly or Stannis. Even if he stormed it there is no guarantee that he could take it . Riverrun has a massive moat that makes storming it very difficult.

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There is no guarantee that Riverrun will fall. Jaimie would probably break the siege to either join with his father or try to trap Robb between them . He could lose thousands of soldiers storming the castle and that would be waste of manpower that is needed against Robb and later Renly or Stannis. Even if he stormed it there is no guarantee that he could take it . Riverrun has a massive moat that makes storming it very difficult.

If memory recalls Jaime was able to coerce Edmure into ordering your namesake to surrender in the novels later on. He had Edmure captive already at this point as well. Though the main question is would the rasher two handed Jaime go this route. Either way this quote here did seem rather accurate:

You've seen our numbers, Edmure. You've seen the ladders, the towers, the trebuchets, the rams. If I speak the command, my coz will bridge your moat and break your gate. Hundreds will die, most of them your own.

Either way I'd say Tytos Blackwood is no Blackfish and he was in command of the garrison. With news of a northern defeat or even stalemate at the Green Fork and no prospect of relief, I think he'd start thinking about surrendering just from that alone.

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If memory recalls Jaime was able to coerce Edmure into ordering your namesake to surrender in the novels later on. He had Edmure captive already at this point as well. Though the main question is would the rasher two handed Jaime go this route. Either way this quote here did seem rather accurate:

Hoster was still alive at that point, if not particularly lucid. Frankly there'd be no need to storm imo. There were enough men in the castle to lead an effective sortie. Jaime just needs to starve them out. He's not under any time crunch.

Either way I'd say Tytos Blackwood is no Blackfish and he was in command of the garrison. With news of a northern defeat or even stalemate at the Green Fork and no prospect of relief, I think he'd start thinking about surrendering just from that alone.

This is the same Tytos who refused to surrender while sitting in his own castle starving. Granted it was to Jonos Bracken he didn't want to surrender, but the man is stubborn, loyal to the Tulllys, and a friend to the Starks.

Also bear in mind that if Robb marches back North, he can finally get the timber and whatnot he needs to build barges/bridges to cross the Green Fork (or whichever one it is).

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If memory recalls Jaime was able to coerce Edmure into ordering your namesake to surrender in the novels later on. He had Edmure captive already at this point as well. Though the main question is would the rasher two handed Jaime go this route. Either way this quote here did seem rather accurate:

Quote

Either way I'd say Tytos Blackwood is no Blackfish and he was in command of the garrison. With news of a northern defeat or even stalemate at the Green Fork and no prospect of relief, I think he'd start thinking about surrendering just from that alone.

There is a major difference between the siege at the beginning of the war and the one at the end . For one thing Edmure was not the Lord of Riverrun in the beginning and the fact that Robb had a army in the Riverlands would have given the defenders of Riverrun hope of rescue when there was zero hope at the end of the war. If Robb was defeated soundly then you would be right but a stalemate or a Northern victory would have given the defenders of Riverrun hope. Tytos Blackwood might not be Blackfish but he's a hard, tough commander and he would have not surrendered lightly.

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If memory recalls Jaime was able to coerce Edmure into ordering your namesake to surrender in the novels later on. He had Edmure captive already at this point as well. Though the main question is would the rasher two handed Jaime go this route. Either way this quote here did seem rather accurate:

Also Jaimie just sitting in front of Riverrun makes him an easy target . Besieging a castle in enemy territory is something you only do when there is little or no hope of rescue because it puts your army in a very vulnerable position. It's no different then Jon's warning to Stannis about laying siege to the Dreadfort and taking a chance to be crushed against the walls by Roose's army. Jaimie would be better off moving to a more defensive position and trying to coordinate with Tywin.

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Also bear in mind that if Robb marches back North, he can finally get the timber and whatnot he needs to build barges/bridges to cross the Green Fork (or whichever one it is).

Would his men still support him marching from the Green Fork all they back to Winterfell or White Harbour pick up more of the supplies they had saved for winter and timber and then march back to the Riverlands?

Also Jaimie just sitting in front of Riverrun makes him an easy target .

From who?

The lords of the Trident have been put to rout. Ser Edmure Tully was taken captive, with many of his knights and bannermen. Lord Blackwood led a few survivors back to Riverrun, where Jaime has them under siege. The rest fled to their own strongholds."

"Your father and I have been marching on each in turn," Ser Kevan said. "With Lord Blackwood gone, Raventree fell at once, and Lady Whent yielded Harrenhal for want of men to defend it. Ser Gregor burnt out the Pipers and the Brackens . . . "

Riverrun was close to falling. Robb seems to think so and none of his advisor's, including the Blackfish and Cat, disagree with him. Time was clearly an issue.

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Would his men still support him marching from the Green Fork all they back to Winterfell or White Harbour pick up more of the supplies they had saved for winter and timber and then march back to the Riverlands?

From who?

The lords of the Trident have been put to rout. Ser Edmure Tully was taken captive, with many of his knights and bannermen. Lord Blackwood led a few survivors back to Riverrun, where Jaime has them under siege. The rest fled to their own strongholds."

"Your father and I have been marching on each in turn," Ser Kevan said. "With Lord Blackwood gone, Raventree fell at once, and Lady Whent yielded Harrenhal for want of men to defend it. Ser Gregor burnt out the Pipers and the Brackens . . . "

Riverrun was close to falling. Robb seems to think so and none of his advisor's, including the Blackfish and Cat, disagree with him. Time was clearly an issue.

The OP ask the question what would have happened had Robb had gone directly to fight Tywin and then the question is what would have happened if there was a stalemate between Robb and Tywin at the Green Fork or if Robb had won . In those cases Jamie would have been under threat from attack by Robb so he would have had to abandon the siege.

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Riverrun was close to falling. Robb seems to think so and none of his advisor's, including the Blackfish and Cat, disagree with him. Time was clearly an issue.

It was close to falling because they had no hope of relief but if they knew Robb was in the Riverlands and had a stalemate with Tywin or had won at the Green Fork then they would have held on a lot longer because they had hope of relief.

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It was close to falling because they had no hope of relief but if they knew Robb was in the Riverlands and had a stalemate with Tywin or had won at the Green Fork then they would have held on a lot longer because they had hope of relief.

Then why didn't Robb just send a message and then take his army and face Tywin?

It was close to falling because it was under siege, Edmure and others were captured and other settlements, including Raventree Hall, had been captured.

Robb had to act because they believed that Riverrun could not hold out indefinitely and time was important. That is what happened in the books.

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Would his men still support him marching from the Green Fork all they back to Winterfell or White Harbour pick up more of the supplies they had saved for winter and timber and then march back to the Riverlands?

They'd not have needed to march that far north. There are going to be trees available before then. This is obviously assuming that they can't cross by the Freys and Tywin doesn't chase them north to MC. If they march all the way back to WF or WH, then those guys are just going home.

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