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R+L=J v.143


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Reference guide

The R+L=J theory claims Jon Snow most probably is the son of crown prince Rhaegar Targaryen and Ned's sister Lyanna Stark.

The Tower of the Hand has an excellent analysis of this theory:
Jon Snow's Parents

And Westeros' Citadel also provides a summary:
Jon Snow's Parents

A Wiki of Ice and Fire:
Jon Snow Theories

Radio Westeros podcast:
A Dragon, a Wolf and a Rose

Frequently Asked Questions:

How can Jon be a Targaryen if ordinary fire burned his hand?
Targaryens are not immune to fire. It's a myth that has been refuted by a list of Targaryens being burned. Danaerys 'the unburnt' was indeed unscathed when she hatched the dragon eggs, but that has not stopped her being burned on other occasions. See this thread on Targaryen fire immunity.

Don't all Targaryens have hallmark Valryian silver-golden hair and purple eyes?
Not all of them: Valarr and Queen Alysanne had blue eyes. Bittersteel, who like Jon was half first men blood, had brown hair. Baelor Breakspear and his son(s) and Jon's own half-sister Rhaenys had the Dornish look (dark hair, black eyes, olive skin). Rhaenyra Targaryen's three sons all had brown hair and brown eyes even though both their parents had light silver-gold hair.
Had Jon Valyrian features, it would give his parentage away: "He had the Stark face if not the name: long, solemn, guarded, a face that gave nothing away. Whoever his mother had been, she had left little of herself in her son." Tyrion got the bit about the mother wrong, though: his mother was the Stark.

If Jon isn't Ned's son, then why does he look so much like him?
Jon looks very like Arya, and Arya looks very like Lyanna. Jon is Ned's nephew, and Lyanna and Ned looked similar.

Ned is too honourable to lie. If he says Jon is his son, doesn't that mean he must be?
Ned tells Arya that sometimes lies can be honourable. His final words, a confession of his guilt, are a lie to protect Sansa. While a lie can be honourable, cheating on his wife isn't, so Ned's famed honour points to Jon not being his son.

How can Jon be half-Targaryen and have a direwolf?
He's also half Stark, through Lyanna. Ned's trueborn children are half Tully and that doesn't stop them having direwolves.

Why doesn't Ned ever think about Lyanna being Jon's mother?
Ned doesn't think about anyone being Jon's mother. If he did, there would be no mystery. He names 'Wylla' to Robert, but we do not see him thinking of Wylla being Jon's mother.
There's a hidden hint at who Jon's mother might be: In chapter 4, Eddard's internal monologue goes "Lyanna ... Ned had loved her with all his heart." and in chapter 6, Catelyn thinks "Whoever Jon's mother had been, Ned must have loved her fiercely".

Why would Ned not at least tell Catelyn?
We don't have a list of what Ned promised to Lyanna, but know he takes his promises seriously. Maybe he promised not to tell anyone. In Chapter 45, Ned is uncertain what Cat would do if it came to Jon's life over that of her own children. If Catelyn knew that Jon was Rhaegar's son, she might feel that keeping him at Winterfell presented a serious risk to her own children. Ultimately, Catelyn did not need to know, so maybe Ned simply chose to be on the safe side.

Doesn't Ned refer to Robb and Jon as "my sons in the very first chapter?
In speech, not in thought. Ned is keeping Jon's parentage secret. He never thinks of Jon as his son: In Chapter 45, Ned thinks of his children "Robb and Sansa and Arya and Bran and Rickon and explicitly excludes Jon from the list. ADwD Chapter 34 has Bran's vision of younger Ned in the Winterfell godswood: "...let them grow up close as brothers, with only love between them," he prayed, "and let my lady wife find it in her heart to forgive..." which not make sense if they are brothers.

Since Rhaegar was already married, wouldn't Jon still be a bastard?
He might, or might not. There was a tradition of polygamy among Targaryens in the past, so the possibility that Rhaegar and Lyanna married is not easily ruled out. A pro-legitimacy argument is this: The presence of the three kingsguards at the Tower of Joy is best explained if they were defending the heir to the throne, which Jon would only be if he was legitimate.

Can we be certain polygamy is not illegal?
Aegon I and Maegor I practised polygamy. In Westeros, unlike a constitutional monarchy, royals are not subject to the law. So if there ever was a law against it, it did not apply to the Targaryens: In Chapter 33 it says "like their dragons the Targaryens answered to neither gods nor men". Examples demonstrate that it was considered an option for Targaryens: Aegon IV and Daemon Blackfyre may have considered it for Daemon, Jorah Mormont suggested it to Daenerys as a viable option, and she said the same about Quentyn Martell.
George R.R. Martin says in this SSM: "If you have a dragon, you can have as many wives as you want". There is also this SSM predating the worldbook.
On Polygamy essay by Ygrain with additions by Rhaenys_Targaryen

Weren't the Kingsguard at Tower of Joy on the basis of an order from Aerys, to guard Lyanna as a hostage?
If so, why would they have apparently made no effort to use this leverage against Robert and Ned? Some argue their Kingsguard vows would have taken precedence and still have required them to leave the Tower to protect Viserys when he became heir -- unless there was another that took precedence [Jon]. Others think they were guarding Lyanna as a hostage at the Tower of Joy. Some say that makes little sense: She would better be kept hostage at King's Landing, and wouldn't require kingsguards to guard her. The mere presence of three kingsguards implies something more important: guarding members of the royal family or maybe the heir.
Frequently suggested readings: At the tower of joy by MtnLion and support of the toj analysis by Ygrain

Isn't there an SSM that says the 3 Kingsguard were following Rhaegar's orders though?
The SSM you may be thinking of is probably this: The King's Guards don't get to make up their own orders. They serve the king, they protect the king and the royal family, but they're also bound to obey their orders, and if Prince Rhaegar gave them a certain order, they would do that. They can't say, "No we don't like that order, we'll do something else."
We know from Barristan, protecting the king is the first and most important of all kingsguard duties. Jamie suggests some other KG to stay with the king when he wants to leave for the Trident and we also learn of a ritual that is performed when all KG meet and the king is guarded by someone who is not from the order.
"Protect vs Obey" is an ongoing subject of debate that is unlikely to be settled until we know more. Either viewpoint is compatible with R+L=J.

Wouldn't Viserys take precedence anyway? Rhaegar died without becoming king, and doesn't the world book call Viserys, not Aegon, Aerys' new heir?
No, in the case of an eldest son dying before the king dies, a grandson comes before a younger son. Even in the case the grandson is yet unborn at the time of death, he would succeed (heir apparent vs. heir presumptive). The world book is written with a Lannister bias (it may be propaganda to undermine Dornish support for the Targaryens) and in hindsight by maesters who have never learned all of what we know from Ned's dreams and memories. If it still turns out to be true... see the next answer.

Are matters of succession just as clear as presented here?
Succession quarrels are a part of medieval power play and even a very clear inheritance could well be contested. So maybe in King's Landing things did happen as the world book says. Rhaegar and Aerys may have been at odds over the succession. Rhaegar told Jaime before leaving for the Trident that he intended to call a council, and The Great Councils of the past have dealt with matters of succession. Who would have accepted such a change is a question worth asking.

Ned is dead. Who's going to tell anyone about it?
Bloodraven and Bran may have learned of it through the weirwood network. Benjen might know. Checkov's Crannogman Howland Reed is the sole survivor of the encounter at the Tower of Joy, and George R.R. Martin has stated he has not yet appeared because he knows too much about the central mystery of the book. "They had found him [Ned] still holding her [Lyanna's] body" tells that there also was someone else besides Howland to find Ned.

Why is this important? What impact can it have on the story?
The careful way the mystery of Jon's parentage was created is reason to believe it's important. What impact it will have on the rest of the series is still unknown.

This theory is too obvious and too many people believe it to be fact. How can it be true?
It is not so obvious to the majority of readers. Some will get it on their first read, but most will not. Readers who go to online fan forums, such as this, still represent a very small minority of the readership. Also, A Game of Thrones has been out since 1996. That's more than 18 years of readers being able to piece together this mystery. Crowd-sourced internet-based mystery solving like this inevitably make solved mysteries seem more obvious in hindsight.

George R.R. Martin is a "breaker of tropes, there can be no hidden prince, it's simply too cliché.
In order to break a trope it needs to be installed in the first place. It is yet unknown what will happen to Jon in the future. Being the son of Lyanna and Rhaegar does not imply the fairy-tale style happy ending associated with the hidden prince trope.

Is there a list of all R+L=J clues that have been found?
There is a list of R+L=J hints, clues and foreshadowing compiled by sj4iy.

Since this theory has been refined so well, will Martin change the outcome of the story to surprise his fans?
He has stated that he won't change the outcome of the story just because some people have put together all the clues and solved the puzzle.

Previous editions:
Please click on the spoiler below to reveal links to all previous editions of this thread

Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon Thread (thread one)


Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon Thread (thread two)

The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon thread (Part III) (thread three)

The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon thread (Part IV) (thread four)

The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon Thread (Part V) (thread five)

The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon Thread (Part VI) (thread six)

The Rhaegar + Lyanna = Jon Thread Part VII (thread seven)

The Rhaegar + Lyanna = Jon thread, Part VIII (thread eight)

The Rhaegar + Lyanna = Jon thread, Part IX (thread nine)

The Rhaegar + Lyanna =Jon Thread, Part X(thread ten)

The R+L=J thread, part XI (thread eleven)

The R+L=J thread, part XII (thread twelve)

R+L=J Part XXIII (thread thirteen)

R+L=J Part XXIV (thread fourteen)

R+L=J XXV (thread fifteen)

R+L=J v.16 (thread sixteen)

R+L=J v.17 (thread seventeen)

R+L=J v.18 (thread eighteen)

R+L=J v.19 (thread nineteen)

R+L=J v.20 (thread twenty)

R+L=J v.21 (thread twenty-one)

R+L=J v.22 (thread twenty-two)

R+L=J v.22a (thread twenty-two (a))

R+L=J v.23 (thread twenty-three)

R+L=J v.24 (thread twenty-four)

R+L=J v.25 (thread twenty-five)

R+L=J v.26 (thread twenty-six)

R+L=J v.27 (thread twenty-seven)

R+L=J v.28 (thread twenty-eight)

R+L=J v.29 (thread twenty-nine)

R+L=J v.30 (thread thirty)

R+L=J v.31 (thread thirty-one)

R+L=J v.32 (thread thirty-two)

R+L=J v.33 (thread thirty-three)

R+L=J v.34 (thread thirty-four)

R+L=J v.35 (thread thirty-five)

R+L=J v.36 (thread thirty-six)

R+L=J v.37 (thread thirty-seven)

R+L=J v.38 (thread thirty-eight)

R+L=J v.39 (thread thirty-nine)

"R+L=J v.40" (thread forty)

"R+L=J v.41" (thread forty-one)

"R+L=J v.42" (thread forty-two)

"R+L=J v.43" (thread forty-three)

"R+L=J v.44" (thread forty-four)

"R+L=J v.45" (thread forty-five)

"R+L=J v.46" (thread forty-six)

"R+L=J v.47" (thread forty-seven)

"R+L=J v.48" (thread forty-eight)

"R+L=J v.49" (thread forty-nine)

"R+L=J v.50" (thread fifty)

"R+L=J v.51" (thread fifty-one)

"R+L=J v.52" (thread fifty-two)

"R+L=J v.53" (thread fifty-three)

"R+L=J v.54" (thread fifty-four)

"R+L=J v.55" (thread fifty-five)

"R+L=J v.56" (thread fifty-six)

"R+L=J v.57" (thread fifty-seven)

"R+L=J v.58" (thread fifty-eight)

"R+L=J v.59" (thread fifty-nine)

"R+L=J v.60" (thread sixty)

"R+L=J v.61" (thread sixty-one)

"R+L=J v.62" (thread sixty-two)

"R+L=J v.63" (thread sixty-three)

"R+L=J v.64" (thread sixty-four)

"R+L=J v.65" (thread sixty-five)

"R+L=J v.66" (thread sixty-six)

"R+L=J v.67" (thread sixty-seven)

"R+L=J v.68" (thread sixty-eight)

"R+L=J v.69" (thread sixty-nine)

"R+L=J v.70" (thread seventy)

"R+L=J v.71" (thread seventy-one)

"R+L=J v.72" (thread seventy-two)

"R+L=J v.73" (thread seventy-three)

"R+L=J v.74" (thread seventy-four)

"R+L=J v.75" (thread seventy-five)

"R+L=J v.76" (thread seventy-six)

"R+L=J v.77" (thread seventy-seven)

"R+L=J v.78" (thread seventy-eight)

"R+L=J v.79" (thread seventy-nine)

"R+L=J v.80" (thread eighty)

"R+L=J v.81" (thread eighty-one)

"R+L=J v.82" (thread eighty-two)

"R+L=J v.83" (thread eighty-three)

"R+L=J v.84" (thread eighty-four)

"R+L=J v.85" (thread eighty-five)

"R+L=J v.86" (thread eighty-six)

"R+L=J v.87" (thread eighty-seven)

"R+L=J v.88" (thread eighty-eight)

"R+L=J v.89" (thread eighty-nine)

"R+L=J v.90" (thread ninety)

"R+L=J v.91" (thread ninety-one)

"R+L=J v.92" (thread ninety-two)

"R+L=J v.93" (thread ninety-three)

"R+L=J v.94" (thread ninety-four)

"R+L=J v.95" (thread ninety-five)

"R+L=J v.96" (thread ninety-six)

"R+L=J v.97" (thread ninety-seven)

"R+L=J v.98" (thread ninety-eight)

"R+L=J v.99" (thread ninety-nine)

"R+L=J v.100" (thread one hundred)

"R+L=J v.101" (thread one hundred one)

"R+L=J v.102" (thread one hundred two)

"R+L=J v.103" (thread one hundred three)

"R+L=J v.104" (thread one hundred four)

"R+L=J v.105" (thread one hundred five)

"R+L=J v.106" (thread one hundred six)

"R+L=J v.107" (thread one hundred seven)

"R+L=J v.108" (thread one hundred eight)

"R+L=J v.109" (thread one hundred nine)

"R+L=J v.110" (thread one hundred ten)

"R+L=J v.111" (thread one hundred eleven)

"R+L=J v.112" (thread one hundred twelve)

"R+L=J v.113" (thread one hundred thirteen)

"R+L=J v.114" (thread one hundred fourteen)

The "[TWoIaF Spoilers] R+L=J" threads were used to openly discuss spoilers from TWoIaF at the time we needed to protect that information.

"[TWoIaF Spoilers] R+L=J v.1"

"[TWoIaF Spoilers] R+L=J v.2"

"[TWoIaF Spoilers] R+L=J v.3"


"R+L=J v.115" (thread one hundred fifteen)

"R+L=J v.116" (thread one hundred sixteen)

"R+L=J v.117" (thread one hundred seventeen)

"R+L=J v.118" (thread one hundred eighteen)

"R+L=J v.119" (thread one hundred nineteen)

"R+L=J v.120" (thread one hundred twenty)

"R+L=J v.121" (thread one hundred twenty one)

"R+L=J v.122" (thread one hundred twenty two)

"R+L=J v.123" (thread one hundred twenty three)

"R+L=J v.124" (thread one hundred twenty four)

"R+L=J v.125" (thread one hundred twenty five)

"R+L=J v.126" (thread one hundred twenty six)

"R+L=J v.127" (thread one hundred twenty seven)

"R+L=J v.128" (thread one hundred twenty eight)

"R+L=J v.129" (thread one hundred twenty nine)

"R+L=J v. 130" (thread one hundred thirty)

"R+L=J v.131" (thread one hundred thirty one)

"R+L=J v.132" (thread one hundred thirty two)


"R+L=J v.133" (thread one hundred thirty three)

"R+L=J v.134" (thread one hundred thirty four)

"R+L=J v.135" (thread one hundred thirty five)

"R+L=J v.136" (thread one hundred thirty six)

"R+L=J v.137" (thread one hundred thirty seven)

"R+L=J v.138"(thread one hundred thirty eight)

"R+L=J v.139" (thread one hundred thirty nine)

"R+L=J v.140" (thread one hundred fourty)

"R+L=J v.141" (thread one hundred fourty one)

R+L=J v.142

(thread one hundred fourty two)

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Ah, shiny . . . precious!

VotFM said: Brandon was already betrothed to Cat, and Jon to Lysa, long before Aerys began demanding heads.
I asked, Where do you get this idea?
VotFM said: They wed. I assume there was a marriage agreement first, to bring House Tully into the rebellion...
My response is that VotFM should reread about how, when and why Jon Arryn agreed to marry Lysa Tully. (Ass U Me is not the way to do this.) After the Battle of the Bells Ned wed Catelyn in his brother's stead. Hoster pushed Lysa off to Jon Arryn because Jon's heir had died at the Battle of the Bells, and because Lysa had already been pregnant it guaranteed her fertility. There was no pre-agreement, it was all arranged after the Tullys had participated in the Battle of the Bells. It is interesting.

As to what the "vow" means in Ned's dream, Ned must know what it means. I can show you two specific cases where Ned knows the Kingsguard's vow, do you have any alternative vow that Ned should know?

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Ah, shiny . . . precious!

VotFM said: Brandon was already betrothed to Cat, and Jon to Lysa, long before Aerys began demanding heads.

I asked, Where do you get this idea?

VotFM said: They wed. I assume there was a marriage agreement first, to bring House Tully into the rebellion...

My response is that VotFM should reread about how, when and why Jon Arryn agreed to marry Lysa Tully. (Ass U Me is not the way to do this.) After the Battle of the Bells Ned wed Catelyn in his brother's stead. Hoster pushed Lysa off to Jon Arryn because Jon's heir had died at the Battle of the Bells, and because Lysa had already been pregnant it guaranteed her fertility. There was no pre-agreement, it was all arranged after the Tullys had participated in the Battle of the Bells. It is interesting.

As to what the "vow" means in Ned's dream, Ned must know what it means. I can show you two specific cases where Ned knows the Kingsguard's vow, do you have any alternative vow that Ned should know?

Surely you realize, Mt Lion, that GRRM has yet to fill his audience in on the entire story... All the important bits & pieces are missing... So, Common Sense would tell most readers that if such an alternate vow does exists, then VotFM (nor any other reader) would be able to fill you in on the nature of this alternate vow at the present time...

Knowing the way that GRRM writes, do you ever consider the fact that your approach to ASOIAF analysis will likely result in you looking like a fool one day?

You have Not been given the complete picture at this point... & some or all of the clues that you have received are likely to be misleading...

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The R+L=J theory claims Jon Snow most probably is the son of crown prince Rhaegar Targaryen and Ned's sister Lyanna Stark.

I know there was some discussion about revising the OP a few months back (I remember, because several of my suggestions were rejected). Was this opening statement part of that revision? It's curious to me, because the = sign is not typically translated to mean "most likely." I'm no mathematician, but i think an = sign typically implies more confidence.

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I know there was some discussion about revising the OP a few months back (I remember, because several of my suggestions were rejected). Was this opening statement part of that revision?

Yay...

It's curious to me, because the = sign is not typically translated to mean "most likely." I'm no mathematician, but i think an = sign typically implies more confidence.

The R+L=J theory is not mathematical either, and unlike its looks, "R+L=J" is no mathemagic formula but just a catchy name. I don't particularly like it, nor do I prefer the alternative "RLJ" that's hanging around. It is a name, just a name.

The sentence's wording "most probably" is of my doing. It means to say that although we may seem as certain as death and taxes, we have not yet read the forthcoming books by GRRM and are open to appreciate diverting ideas as they come. A theory needs contestants as sword needs a whetstone, otherwise it becomes religious.

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It doesn't make sense. R+L=J (or whatever you want to refer to it as) is a theory which claims Jon IS the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna. There is no probably about what the theory claims. The only question is whether the theory is true or not, which is where the probably comes in.

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Just prior to the announcement of Jaime being appointed to the KG, Cersei told Jaime of talk of betrothing him to Lysa. Tywin and Cersei left KL when the announcement was made. Cat was still betrothed to Brandon, and Lysa was not betrothed to anyone. Only during the rebellion did Ned agree to marry Cat and Jon to marry Lysa, to get Hoster on board. Up to that point, Hoster, like Tywin, had stayed out of the war.

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Just prior to the announcement of Jaime being appointed to the KG, Cersei told Jaime of talk of betrothing him to Lysa. Tywin and Cersei left KL when the announcement was made. Cat was still betrothed to Brandon, and Lysa was not betrothed to anyone. Only during the rebellion did Ned agree to marry Cat and Jon to marry Lysa, to get Hoster on board. Up to that point, Hoster, like Tywin, had stayed out of the war.

In addtion, it seems that Neds betrotal to Cat came before the Battle of the Bells, though we don't know how much. Lysa's to Jon came only after the battle.

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Just prior to the announcement of Jaime being appointed to the KG, Cersei told Jaime of talk of betrothing him to Lysa. Tywin and Cersei left KL when the announcement was made. Cat was still betrothed to Brandon, and Lysa was not betrothed to anyone. Only during the rebellion did Ned agree to marry Cat and Jon to marry Lysa, to get Hoster on board. Up to that point, Hoster, like Tywin, had stayed out of the war.

Not quite. Hoster went to the Battle of the Bells, Ned and Jon agreed to marry the two Tully girls after the Battle of the Bells. Jon only because his heir had died at the Battle of the Bells, and that Hoster assured him that Lysa was fertile.

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Surely you realize, Mt Lion, that GRRM has yet to fill his audience in on the entire story... All the important bits & pieces are missing...

Ned is dead, there is nothing else that he can contribute, so either he knows what vow, or he doesn't. But, for the dream to make sense to him, he knows what vow Hightower refers to. That is the Kingsguard vow, and no other.

ETA: It is like Daenerys and her flower, we learn that it is a rose. Or the mummer's dragon, she defines what it means. All of the important bits are in the books, one only needs to read, and not try to make up their own version.

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Not quite. Hoster went to the Battle of the Bells, Ned and Jon agreed to marry the two Tully girls after the Battle of the Bells. Jon only because his heir had died at the Battle of the Bells, and that Hoster assured him that Lysa was fertile.

According to Catelyn, Lysa's marriage had been hastily arranged. She says no such thing about her own. When LF's letter arrived, she already knew she would marry Ned. The way she speaks about her own betrothal, compared to how she speaks of Lysa's, suggests to me that Cat's own betrothal had been made before the Battle of the Bells, and might very well have been the reason that Hoster joined the Battle

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On the issue of Jons heritage and the KG presence at the TOJ, while I think its a strong indicator, I actually have never looked to that as evidence of his birthright or paternity.



I actully think the crypts will hold the ultimate evidence of his background as in Ned erecting a statue to Lyanna, the only Stark female, (thus far), to have one. To me, my speculation that the statue indicates royal status on par with the Winter kings is very telling, as well as the fact that Jons most profound dreams seem to center around the crypts as if being called to them along with the contraditory message in his dreams that he does not belong there, seemingly a statement on his bastardy, though we suspect otherwise.



The whole TOJ foundation, based upon Neds dreams are tricky, and Jon needing to be at the TOJ was never a deal-breaker for me. I'm with Ran on this because while I do think Lyanna was at the Tower, I do think it makes sense they would have removed baby Jon once she became ill.


Just the scenario is cumbersome, because Ned goes:



- engages the KG and defeats them



- finds Lyanna and supposedly an infant



- destroys the TOJ and then.....




takes an infant and Wylla, as well as Lyannas bones back to Starfall to drop off Daynes sword?



He's carrying a lot of awkward baggage that could slow him down, and also draw attention- a baby, a body, a wetnurse, and a notable sword.



To me, going to Lyanna, finding out about Jon AND finding out where to find him, burying her body at the TOJ, taking Daynes sword back to Starfall to collect baby Jon, and THEN from Starfall, making it seem as if he is transporting a body (perhaps later by ship), back to WF, which in reality carry's proof of Jon's birthright which may have also been at SF, (perhaps Jon was swaddled in Rhaegars cloak), seems more logical as I think the sword while certainly a courtesy and not outside of Neds character, was a cover story for going to SF.



Who had the theory that Arthur is the actual Dayne that is still alive, and what is that theory?


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