So what is HBO's strategy on the Jon Snow question?

[Hajk]

Let's start with the assumption that he will return in the books. I know it is a theory and not canon, but it is a fairly strong one.

So far the main arguments for the two sides seem to be (as far as I can gather):

Jon is dead dead:

Everyone associated with the show is saying he is. It seems far fetched to think they are all lying. Almost all the major evidence that he will return is in the books (e.g. Rhaegar's obsession with the PTWP prophecy, Maester Aemon's confirmation of it with Melisandre, Dany's visions in the HoTU relating to a blue rose, or to the dragon having three heads, or any mention whatsoever of the song of ice and fire, Ned's dream at the ToJ, the prophecy that the PTWP will come from the line of Aerys and his sister, Melisandre seeing "Snow" in the flames, or seeing a man-wolf-man, or Jon having any warging ability, any possible hint of the GNC or Robb's will, and so on) with hardly any clear reference to any of it unless one is reading it in light of information from the books. D&D have made major changes to the story before and they can make this change as well. The things they have left out are conspicuous by their very absence and one wonders why else they would leave all these things out (especially ones like Aemon's conversation with Mel on the war for the dawn, which could have been accommodated very easily this season). Even R+L=J has hardly been pushes in the show if we don't look at anything in the books and see the show as a closed entity. It may not be so central to D&D's plans.

Jon is not dead:

Surely D&D will not make a change so big. None of the changes made by them so far have been as big as this one would be and therefore analogies from these changes (e.g. the absence of Aegon, Arianne, or even LSH) to the absence of Jon are not legitimate. Some see Jon as the central Messianic figure at the center of the whole story, as a physical embodiment of the titular Song of Ice and Fire. If this interpretation is correct then the change would be far too drastic from GRRM's text to be acceptable. Martin wouldn't have accepted this, or D&D wouldn't dare to veer so far from Martin's path as that would no longer leave them with sufficient cover for what they are doing (against fan backlash etc.). Why is Melisandre suddenly back at Castle Black at this very juncture if not to use her Red God resurrection magic? Moreover they are committed to getting to the same ending as Martin. R+L=J is central to the story in the show as well as there are some hints in that direction and Martin asked D&D who Jon's mother was at the very start to test whether they were true fans of the series. In addition there is a line about Kit mentioning warging and one of D&D saying "season six" on a youtube video (it can be found in other threads so I am not mentioning it here).

Other than this both sides are able to use sarcasm, accuse the other of not having logic, make assertions of how they are tired of trying to make the other side see reason etc. and perhaps one should just agree to disagree (i.e. the usual).

Obviously I have not captured every argument that has been going on, but these seem to be the major ones.

Now admittedly, I currently favor the first position. Admittedly this would be the biggest change from the books. However, given the compression needed for the story, I think it is quite possible that much of Jon's role will be given over to Dany. I don't think R+L=J has been hinted at much in the show and the question of Jon's parentage has been rather de-emphasized in comparison to the books ever since the pilot. I also think that what is absent is far more conspicuous than what is present. The view that has Jon as some sort of central Messianic figure who IS the "song of ice and fire" is not as unambiguous as some of its adherents seem to suppose (the evidence of his resurrection is stronger than this theory). But even if it is in the books, that evidence has hardly made an appearance in the show. If the show is going to make Jon this central they have done a brilliant job of suppressing all the major evidence that points to his centrality. As for the line about warging in the video, it is hard to see why that line which was said in a jocular manner is to be given priority over recent interviews that address this topic explicitly. Finally the fact that the "same ending" is to be preserved is a very ambiguous and non-specific phrase. For example, what if the ending is just that "the normal seasons are restored and the wall falls while every contender for the throne lies dead." This can happen in many different ways and does not necessarily have to involve Jon.

Anyhow, all of the above is a preamble to the question that I intend to ask:

Why are all the folks associated with the show right now insisting that Jon is dead? What is this going to accomplish?

The explanations from those who feel that he is coming back (in the show) seem to range from they are lying because it would be a bigger surprise, to them being contractually obligated etc.

But why would this make sense for them? Surely, given how they left the end of the season, the question of whether Jon is returning or not will be foremost in the mind of the fandom. People will tune in at the beginning of next season (and perhaps keep watching for several episodes) just to see this happen. In such a case, why wouldn't they give ambiguous answers that will continue to fuel fan speculation (like Martin has been doing) rather than the unequivocal statements they seem to be making? Are ratings more important or is sudden surprise in one particular episode?

On the other hand, if Jon actually is dead for good then you would expect them to give exactly the sort of statements they are currently giving. This is because you do not wish to build great expectations of a resurrection when you know that it would be disappointed. That sort of disappointment can lead to a major loss in ratings.

[HosteenOsteen]

I feel they are going for a ratings bonanza when he returns, kind of like when Michael Jordan came back to the Bulls.

As you say, Jon MUST be coming back in the books, frankly, because it he doesn;t Rhaegar Targaryen was a prophecy-obsessed madman who started the cycle that has Westeros going to hell in a handcart.

Jon must be alive to have any sort of redemptive outcome to Rhaegar's life, or make him anything but a deluded fool who makes Selyse Baratheon look like St. Francis of Assisi.

if the show runners made so radical a change and has him permanently dead, I (ironically) salute them for it.

Indeed, I was even thinking, maybe GRRM should feel less pressure to get TWOW out by spring 2016, because the show has gotten so far from the books it really doesn't matter by how much the books are overtaken.

[Cas Stark]

An ambiguous answer coming from a TV show is almost the same as saying he's not dead. So if they want it to be a shock, they have to lie.

I also think he will come back mid season next season.

However, there is a third alternative, which is that he dies in the books, but much later, and just as they've killed several other characters off early, they decided to go for the Red Wedding factor and kill him now.

I doubt they've done this, I still think it's a stunt, but if he is dead and not resurrected then it's because at the end of the story, Jon is dead.

[Lord Lannister]

Kit has to say what the show tells him too. It's part of earning his pay check. So if they tell him to lead the viewers on a wild goose chase, that's what he'll do.

[Borodin]

I think one of the biggest reasons show-watchers are franticly trying to determine whether Jon Snow will be back is that he has been a long-standing centrepiece of their "essential characters" arguments with respect to why D&D are justified in excluding so many plotlines and POV characters. If it turns out that Jon Snow wasn't destined to Targ-out and ride a dragon, then perhaps *gulp* he was no more important than Benjen Stark, Coldhands, or the Greyjoys.

[Hajk]

I feel they are going for a ratings bonanza when he returns, kind of like when Michael Jordan came back to the Bulls.

As you say, Jon MUST be coming back in the books, frankly, because it he doesn;t Rhaegar Targaryen was a prophecy-obsessed madman who started the cycle that has Westeros going to hell in a handcart.

Jon must be alive to have any sort of redemptive outcome to Rhaegar's life, or make him anything but a deluded fool who makes Selyse Baratheon look like St. Francis of Assisi.

if the show runners made so radical a change and has him permanently dead, I (ironically) salute them for it.

Indeed, I was even thinking, maybe GRRM should feel less pressure to get TWOW out by spring 2016, because the show has gotten so far from the books it really doesn't matter by how much the books are overtaken.

But to get this bonanza they will need to telegraph his resurrection beforehand wouldn't they? Otherwise if he returned contrary to all expectation would that give them good ratings for the episode?Maybe it would for the next one episode. On the other hand this could be an arc over the whole season which could make people return for more each week. But none of that would hold if people thought that he was definitely gone.

Kit has to say what the show tells him too. It's part of earning his pay check. So if they tell him to lead the viewers on a wild goose chase, that's what he'll do.

Agreed. IF the show instructs him to do this, he will do this. The question is whether it makes sense for the show to tell him to do so. If they want people to turn in, they can keep the question of the resurrection ambiguous and keep people debating and tuning in to see what happens rather than assert that he is gone and lose viewers.

An ambiguous answer coming from a TV show is almost the same as saying he's not dead. So if they want it to be a shock, they have to lie.

I also think he will come back mid season next season.

However, there is a third alternative, which is that he dies in the books, but much later, and just as they've killed several other characters off early, they decided to go for the Red Wedding factor and kill him now.

I doubt they've done this, I still think it's a stunt, but if he is dead and not resurrected then it's because at the end of the story, Jon is dead.

An ambiguous answer is what GRRM has given when questioned on the books (which have far far more evidence of his return than the show does) and the debate still continues. It wouldn't be so definite when it comes to the show, especially for those who are less focused on it than the people on this board. GOT is not exactly known for shirking from killing off its major characters.

The third alternative seems quite possible to me, however, as that can help compress and simplify the story (which is a major concern for them).

I think one of the biggest reasons show-watchers are franticly trying to determine whether Jon Snow will be back is that he has been a long-standing centrepiece of their "essential characters" arguments with respect to why D&D are justified in excluding so many plotlines and POV characters. If it turns out that Jon Snow wasn't destined to Targ-out and ride a dragon, then perhaps *gulp* he was no more important than Benjen Stark, Coldhands, or the Greyjoys.

As most show watchers are probably not book readers and don't even know that POV characters and storylines are being altered/ignored,I don't think this is the case for most. I think most don't want the last genuinely heroic figure and the last grown-up from house Stark eliminated in such a fashion.

[Hoo]

They dump him over the wall where the White Walkers pick him up.

[arieswmn]

I really can see it going either way at this point.

With all the textual evidence/reader speculation about John's resurrection, it seems pretty pointless for showrunners to pretend he's dead, only to bring him back. They know the idea is out there, and being talked out about, why fight it unless they really are killing him off for good?

On the other hand, I've always felt that the "Song of Ice and Fire," referred to Jon, and it seems like way too central a plotline to cut completely.

Also, they brought up Lyanna this season, pointing to the R+L=J. Seems so pointless to bring that up if they're not going that route.

But then again, they're really playing the "he's DEAD," card. So I just don't know.

[JonisHenryTudor]

Well here is the thing. Jon Snow is dead.

Possible Spoiler

Until someone asks about Jon Stargaryen, they can continue the ploy. As far as "not filming" for S6, perhaps they already did those scenes so that it would not be a lie? No idea on that front, but I find it hard to believe that Jon is not in WoW or S6. It would be ridiculous the wait 1000 pages to bring him back into the fold, and terrible writing to be honest. Letting something linger for 1/4 or 1/3 of the book is one thing, but to just not include him at all pretty ridiculous. If they leave him out of S6 (presuming the series ends in 7), that means suddenly he returns right before the end? Not buying it, even from D&D.

[I'm no Ser.]

I think it is also likely that they won't bother to resolve Jon's birth story. I think it's pretty established that R+L=J but so what? It just makes him the son of a Stark and Targaryen. It seems fitting that he is ice and fire, but Bran and Dany has to fit in somehow. Out of the three of them, two has to be fake, and it could be any one.

[arieswmn]

Well here is the thing. Jon Snow is dead.

Possible Spoiler

Until someone asks about Jon Stargaryen, they can continue the ploy. As far as "not filming" for S6, perhaps they already did those scenes so that it would not be a lie? No idea on that front, but I find it hard to believe that Jon is not in WoW or S6. It would be ridiculous the wait 1000 pages to bring him back into the fold, and terrible writing to be honest. Letting something linger for 1/4 or 1/3 of the book is one thing, but to just not include him at all pretty ridiculous. If they leave him out of S6 (presuming the series ends in 7), that means suddenly he returns right before the end? Not buying it, even from D&D.

Good point. He probably gets a new name when he's resurrected. Maybe they already have the scene written, so what they're saying is technically accurate.

[Direwight]

Eh, seems most likely to me that he's coming back but they've just botched it up by setting it up as a cliffhanger and then having to lie about it.

Or, he spends the rest of the books warged into Ghost, and they cut that part from the show and just had him die.

[CleverCrow]

Well here is the thing. Jon Snow is dead.

Possible Spoiler

As far as "not filming" for S6, perhaps they already did those scenes so that it would not be a lie? No idea on that front, but I find it hard to believe that Jon is not in WoW or S6. It would be ridiculous the wait 1000 pages to bring him back into the fold, and terrible writing to be honest. Letting something linger for 1/4 or 1/3 of the book is one thing, but to just not include him at all pretty ridiculous. If they leave him out of S6 (presuming the series ends in 7), that means suddenly he returns right before the end? Not buying it, even from D&D.

I absolutely think that they have already filmed at least some of Kit's scenes for next season. Additionally, some people are making note that Kit has cut his hair, which I think is another disinformation tactic to keep the ruse alive. His hair length might not matter anymore because either he's already filmed his scenes, or his hair length is no longer germane to the role he will be playing in future episodes. Jon is due for a transformation, so it is quite possible that they would alter his hair to visually reinforce the idea of that transformation.

And if he is really dead for good, that changes a lot for me. I would keep reading/watching, but frankly the bloom would be off the winter rose, so to speak. I just don't like book Daenerys much at all and definitely not show Dany. She could not fill that void for me. I imagine that I am not alone in this. The family I am invested in is the Starks, including Jon, of course. The Targaryens are a little little too self-important and vainglorious for my taste. (And yes, I know that Jon is likely half Targ.)

Furthermore, I am not a monarchist, so I really just want to see the tradition of monarchy in Westeros gone for good. I don't want to see ANYONE sit on the Iron Throne, let alone Jon, but I digress.

[SerJeremiahLouistark]

Unless GRRM is completely trolling his readers.

As far as the line about D&D not eluding to the R+L=J theory, they kind of did in episode 4 when Baelish is speaking to Sansa in the crypts of Winterfell. At least that's what I took it as.

[RoamingRonin]

When people ask if Jon is dead? Tell them yes, he's dead.

When people ask if he will be resurrected? Curve the question. Deflect. Because he will return.

[Titan]

When people ask if Jon is dead? Tell them yes, he's dead.

When people ask if he will be resurrected? Curve the question. Deflect. Because he will return.

Indeed. This happens ALL THE TIME in hollywood. Actors are under contracts and non-disclosure agreements, and are forced to lie all the time.

To quote Andy Greenwald (GOT recapper for Grantland) on twitter: https://twitter.com/andygreenwald/status/610438718340599808

"The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world to believe post-finale actor interviews."

[RoamingRonin]

Unless GRRM is completely trolling his readers.

As far as the line about D&D not eluding to the R+L=J theory, they kind of did in episode 4 when Baelish is speaking to Sansa in the crypts of Winterfell. At least that's what I took it as.

And then we have the scene where Maester Aemon says "A Targaryen alone in the world is a terrible thing" and in steps Jon. It's clear R+L=J exists on the show. Jon has more to do. He will return.

Indeed. This happens ALL THE TIME in hollywood. Actors are under contracts and non-disclosure agreements, and are forced to lie all the time.

To quote Andy Greenwald (GOT recapper for Grantland) on twitter: https://twitter.com/andygreenwald/status/610438718340599808

"The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world to believe post-finale actor interviews."

:agree:

[BlueDragon]

An ambiguous answer coming from a TV show is almost the same as saying he's not dead. So if they want it to be a shock, they have to lie.

I also think he will come back mid season next season.

However, there is a third alternative, which is that he dies in the books, but much later, and just as they've killed several other characters off early, they decided to go for the Red Wedding factor and kill him now.

I doubt they've done this, I still think it's a stunt, but if he is dead and not resurrected then it's because at the end of the story, Jon is dead.

I can buy he dies in the books. I can buy most major characters dying at the end, including Jon, but we are so far from the end that nothing about this makes sense.

I love Dany's storyline, but not her storyline alone. Also, there is now no male romantic type lead, just a Dany, Ayra and Sansa??? WTF??

Bran would make a very strange romantic lead as a tree.

Not that every story needs a romance, but viewers really tuned in to watch Jon Snow be a hero, no matter how dense he might be at times. And although I buy Kit's explanation that he did not cultivate those closest to him and didn't take care of Olly, I just don't see how much he could have done to win over his fellow NW members.

Perhaps, D&D overplayed their hand by coming down so hard on 'dead is dead'

No there is a quote from Kit saying that he was told 'no resurrection' -- even curiouser and curiouser

[Bastard of Balmora]

http://ts3.mm.bing.net/th?id=JN.PBmD%2fv9ugeTByMIwMDdpmg&pid=15.1

With a patch over his eye and more Caucasian/aquiline features.

[imaginepageant]

I think Jon will be dead for all of season six, and be resurrected at the very end of the season. This allows them to say that "Jon is definitely dead" and "Kit won't be returning for season six" without lying. If Jon's corpse is seen for even a few seconds in the season premiere, it would give Kit a solid excuse to be in Belfast while secretly filming his resurrection scene. If Jon does warg into Ghost for awhile in the books, it would be impossible to translate to the screen, so they could be removing him from the show entirely for that time instead. Being less one major storyline would allow the show to devote more screen time to Bran's return, Sam's adventures in Oldtown, and the Ironborn. And, it would be one hell of a surprise for both Unsullied and Sullied alike.

I will not believe that Jon is completely and forever out of the show until I see them burning his body. If that happens next season, I'm done with the show.