R+L=J v.146

[Lord Varys]

Well, Ashara presumably would have been at court after Harrenhal - either in KL or on Dragonstone. I've assume that Queen Rhaella would have banished her from court after her pregnancy became apparent if she was in KL at the time. But even if that didn't happen one would assume she returned back home to give birth to her bastard in the relative privacy of Starfall rather than on Dragonstone/in KL.

That's how this kind of thing was done in the real world middle ages.

From what we know it does not seem likely that Ned and Ashara did hook up again after Harrenhal, but that is certainly still a possibility. Ned may have visited her in Starfall, or she may have visited him in the Vale. Whatever birth date we are giving by George is more or less a good guess, it seems - and we can't really be sure in any of that whether he talks about Jon being Ned's son with the cover story in place, or about Lyanna's child.

If Jon is Lyanna's son we have no clue when exactly Rhaegar fathered him, and we also don't whether George knows that, either. Is this going to be an important plot point - say, if Jon is conceived when they have first sex - or is this event never going to come up in the story at all? Considering that we also don't know how much time passed between Lyanna's abduction and the outbreak of the war the stuff is really hard to pinpoint. However, the persistence of the Ashara story only makes sense if there is a reasonable chance that Ned can have fathered Jon on her. Else, nobody would buy that story.

The other problem is that we don't really know what Ned's cover story is. When exactly did he father his bastard in the story he told others? Where did he supposedly chance upon Wylla? How much younger/older than Robb is Jon in that story?

[WeaselPie]

/

Jon's newborn-presence anywhere is quite difficult to pin down only if we ignore that his wetnurse was in service to House Dayne, and that his milkbrother is the current Lord of Starfall.

/

True, yet we can't even place Jon at Starfall in book canon. We can place Wylla there, only as being in service to the Dayne's for sometime before Edric was born three years after the accepted birth year of Jon Snow. Which doesn't definitively place Wylla and Jon being at Starfall during Ned's visit to return Dawn.

Wylla could have been sent there later by Ned from elsewhere to hide her. Not unreasonable. Even if the non-canon opinions about Wylla being the travelling wetnurse, from Starfall to the toj back to Starfall up to Winterfell then back to Starfall, Ned would have motive to send her to Dorne when she was no longer needed.

There are further questions about this however. No one notices a wetnurse and a baby travelling with Ned. Barbrey Dustin of all people would have mentioned it. The journey back to WF was a journey of months, and not a single witness saw the great Ned Stark travelling home with a strange entourage.

ETA hmm wait. There is Cersei's stolen child comment, which always seemed to me that Cersei is pointing at Ashara. But did Cersei see this with her own eyes or was there a rumor floating around, the same as the rumors Cat hears?

The larger question is who told Edric that Wylla was Jon's mother, or even that Wylla nursed Jon Snow, bastard of Winterfell. How would that come up in conversation?

ETA 2 The first place we can place Jon is under the heart tree in Winterfell with Ned.

[stateofdissipation]

Well, Ashara presumably would have been at court after Harrenhal - either in KL or on Dragonstone. I've assume that Queen Rhaella would have banished her from court after her pregnancy became apparent if she was in KL at the time. But even if that didn't happen one would assume she returned back home to give birth to her bastard in the relative privacy of Starfall rather than on Dragonstone/in KL.

That's how this kind of thing was done in the real world middle ages.

From what we know it does not seem likely that Ned and Ashara did hook up again after Harrenhal, but that is certainly still a possibility. Ned may have visited her in Starfall, or she may have visited him in the Vale. Whatever birth date we are giving by George is more or less a good guess, it seems - and we can't really be sure in any of that whether he talks about Jon being Ned's son with the cover story in place, or about Lyanna's child.

If Jon is Lyanna's son we have no clue when exactly Rhaegar fathered him, and we also don't whether George knows that, either. Is this going to be an important plot point - say, if Jon is conceived when they have first sex - or is this event never going to come up in the story at all? Considering that we also don't know how much time passed between Lyanna's abduction and the outbreak of the war the stuff is really hard to pinpoint. However, the persistence of the Ashara story only makes sense if there is a reasonable chance that Ned can have fathered Jon on her. Else, nobody would buy that story.

The other problem is that we don't really know what Ned's cover story is. When exactly did he father his bastard in the story he told others? Where did he supposedly chance upon Wylla? How much younger/older than Robb is Jon in that story?

Well, Ashara presumably would have been at court after Harrenhal - either in KL or on Dragonstone.

As a matter of fact (a tiny tidbit from SOS), she was one of Princess Elia's lady companions in King's Landing, in the first few years after Elia married Rhaegar.--http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/1040

That is an assumption of Ashara being Elia's companion at Dragonstone and an assumption that Ashara was Elia's companion after Harrenhal.

I've assume that Queen Rhaella would have banished her from court after her pregnancy became apparent if she was in KL at the time.

This is a fair assumption... IF Ashara was in King's Landing...

But even if that didn't happen one would assume she returned back home to give birth to her bastard in the relative privacy of Starfall rather than on Dragonstone/in KL.

That Drangonstone/King's Landing were options is an assumption.

Ashara at Starfall is given.

From what we know it does not seem likely that Ned and Ashara did hook up again after Harrenhal, but that is certainly still a possibility.

As to your speculations about Catelyn and Ashara Dayne... sigh... needless to say, All Will Be Revealed in Good Time. I will give you this much, however; Ashara Dayne was not nailed to the floor in Starfall, as some of the fans who write me seem to assume.

Ned may have visited her in Starfall, or she may have visited him in the Vale.

They may have had a vacation in Essos....

Whatever birth date we are giving by George is more or less a good guess, it seems - and we can't really be sure in any of that whether he talks about Jon being Ned's son with the cover story in place, or about Lyanna's child.

We are given Jon was of an age with Robb, Robb was conceived after the Battle of the Bells. Ned gives Jon's conception after Robbs.

---Both were conceived after the rebellion started.

If Jon is Lyanna's son we have no clue when exactly Rhaegar fathered him,

270 days--9 months 10 days before birth-- Lyanna in her bed of blood following the showdown at the tower of joy.

and we also don't whether George knows that, either. Is this going to be an important plot point - say, if Jon is conceived when they have first sex - or is this event never going to come up in the story at all? Considering that we also don't know how much time passed between Lyanna's abduction and the outbreak of the war the stuff is really hard to pinpoint.

If Jon was conceived when Lyanna was kidnapped, Jon was at least three months old when Ned found her.

However, the persistence of the Ashara story only makes sense if there is a reasonable chance that Ned can have fathered Jon on her. Else, nobody would buy that story.

True...

The other problem is that we don't really know what Ned's cover story is.

The cover story is the tale Ned tells to keep others from the truth. We don't know the truth.

When exactly did he father his bastard in the story he told others?

Ned places Jon's conception after his marriage. This is close enough to go without question.

Where did he supposedly chance upon Wylla?

After his marriage.

How much younger/older than Robb is Jon in that story?

Jon is younger than Robb in the only version given.

[mrs snow]

Like any mother, for that matter, but the point here I think is that (if we were to agree that R+L=J of course) Ned knows that if Jon's identity is revealed, even to someone as close as Cat, that life or death situation becomes more than just a probability. If Cat wanted Jon away when she thinks he's Ned's son, what would she do if she learns that he's a Targ also?

Now that I'm thinking of, I never thought about it actually. What do you people think, what would she've done?

p.s. I loved Cat. I don't know why she gets so much hate.

i love her too...she is just a complex ,warm ,strong character. Always been one of my absolute favourites

[MtnLion]

I seems like an appropriate time to do this once again. The three Kingsguard that Ned meets at the tower earn his respect, for doing what, exactly? Ned knows that the Kingsguard are pledged to protect the king, and he is present for Jaime's vow. They earn Ned's respect by dying for the king, as they had pledged to do. Therefore we can place a king at the tower. We know that only two men leave the tower of joy, from a recent Q&A with GRRM, so the king must be a child. What is the source for a king? Aegon is dead, Rhaegar is dead, Aerys is dead, Rhaegar and Lyanna must have married, and Lyanna must have given birth to a male child. Do we know that this child is Jon? Daenerys' vision in the House of the Undying strongly supports Jon as the child, A blue rose (Daenerys later says that it is a rose, though initially it is a flower) growing from a chink in a wall of ice.

How much does Ned respect the three Kingsguard? Ned respects them to the point that he buries them individually in their own cairns, along with his own men. He tells Bran that once they were a wonder, a shining example to the world, and the best of them all was Ser Arthur Dayne.

Ned's recurring dream, so it is not just a fever dream. It is recurring, and it holds deep meaning for Ned. It makes sense to Ned. It is a source of grief for Ned. He killed three of the finest knights he had ever known, one of them Ned says was the best of all, Ser Arthur Dayne.

Ned and his friends arrive at the tower, as they had in life. This dream is based upon real events. This actually occurred, but the dialog seems to be paraphrased in Ned's memory. He vividly remembers the three Kingsguard, though. The conversation must have a deep meaning for Ned.

The only vow that we can be sure that Ned knows is the vow that Kingsguard take before receiving their white cloak. Jaime and others tell us that it is to protect and defend the king, dying for him, if need be. There are also some ancillary promises, but the first priority is given as protection and defense of the crown, all other promises descend from that.

"I looked for you on the Trident,” Ned said to them.
Ned knew about Prince Lewyn Martell and Ser Jonothor Darry dying at the Trident. He knew about Ser Barristan Selmy slaying twelve of his and Robert’s friends before being wounded so severely that he may have died without Robert sending his own maester to tend to Selmy’s wounds. He knew that Ser Jaime Lannister had been in the Red Keep during the battle. He expected to see these three at the Trident, too.

“We were not there,” Ser Gerold answered.
From the app we know that Ser Arthur Dayne and Ser Oswell Whent are with Prince Rhaegar when Lyanna enters the company of the prince. There is no surprise about events on the Trident expressed by any of these three. Evidently they are aware of the battle, and the outcome.

“Woe to the Usurper if we had been,” said Ser Oswell.
This states that Robert is considered an usurper by these Kingsguard, or at least by Ser Oswell Whent. He does use the term "we" and implies that Robert could not have won the battle at the Trident if these three had been present at the battle. They know that Robert has been crowned and taken the throne as an usurper. This also tells us that they know of an heir that is still living that has a better claim than Robert.

“When King's Landing fell, Ser Jaime slew your king with a golden sword, and I wondered where you were.”
Ned relays that King's Landing has fallen and King Aerys is dead by Jaime’s hand. Ned knows that the primary duty of the Kingsguard is to protect and defend the king. He wonders why it is that these three Kingsguard were not with King Aerys when King’s Landing fell.

“Far away,” Ser Gerold said, “or Aerys would yet sit the Iron Throne, and our false brother would burn in seven hells.”
Ser Gerold Hightower condemns Jaime as a Oathbreaker, and implies that he or one of these others would certainly kill Jaime rather than let him slay the king if they had been present. Ser Gerold is expressing his support for King Aerys. He also relays that when Jaime slew Aerys that none of the three had been in a position to react, they were too far away.

“I came down on Storm's End to lift the siege,” Ned told them, and the Lords Tyrell and Redwyne dipped their banners, and all their knights bent the knee to pledge us fealty. I was certain you would be among them.”
Ned tells them that all remaining forces surrendered to him, and pledged fealty to Robert and Ned. He expected to find the last of the Kingsguard with these forces, but again was surprised to note that they were not. This is an invitation for these Kingsguard to surrender to him.

“Our knees do not bend easily,” said Ser Arthur Dayne.
Ser Arthur Dayne speaks for the group, and says that they will not surrender. Of note, when Ned approaches the tower Ser Oswell Whent is on his knee. That fact and this line can amount to a subtle clue that the Kingsguard have already bent their knees at the tower, before Ned arrives.

“Ser Willem Darry is fled to Dragonstone, with your queen and Prince Viserys. I thought you might have sailed with him.”
Ned has offered the Kingsguard the option of surrendering to him, which they rejected. This line is disjointed in the timeline because Ned is changing his tactic. He holds the Kingsguard, especially these three in high regard, even years later. He called them a shining example to the rest of the world. In an attempt to find some talking point that would lead to a peaceful solution, Ned tells them that their queen and prince have fled to Dragonstone without Kingsguard protection. This is an opening for the Kingsguard to discuss a tactical withdrawal. It is within Ned’s capabilities, as second in command, to provide safe passage. It would be in his, his friend’s and the Kingsguard’s best interests to allow them to go to Dragontsone to carry out their duties there.

“Ser Willem is a good man and true,” said Ser Oswell.
Ser Willem Darry is a brother to Ser Jonothor Darry of the Kingsguard, and known well to these members of the Kingsguard. They are admitting that they know that "Prince" Viserys is without a Kingsguard. They have ignored the insult of labeling Viserys as a prince, when he should be considered the king.

“But not of the Kingsguard,” Ser Gerold pointed out. “The Kingsguard does not flee.”
On the night that news of the Trident arrived at King's Landing Aerys ordered that Rhaella and Viserys be taken to Dragonstone for their safety, as it appeared that King's Landing would shortly be under siege. Jaime was the only Kingsguard in King's Landing so Ser Willem Darry was drafted to protect the royal family members, while Jaime remained with King Aerys, Elia, and her children.

The Lord Commander recognizes that Ser Willem Darry is not Kingsguard, thus the queen and prince Viserys are not currently under Kingsguard protection. Taken together with Ned’s statement, it is easy to see that Ser Gerold Hightower sees leaving King Aerys' side at King’s Landing as fleeing from his duty, even if it was to protect Queen Rhaella and Prince Viserys.

If the Red Keep falls, and Aerys dies then Viserys was safe as long as he could stay alive on Dragonstone. The majority of the fighting men had gone with Rhaegar, and mustering enough men to defend the city or just the Red Keep may be difficult. Without a Kingsguard to protect them Darry, Viserys and Daenerys are nearly captured and turned over to Robert. They manage to escape just before Dragonstone surrenders.

“Then or now,” said Ser Arthur. He donned his helm.
Arthur reiterates that the Kingsguard would have chosen to stay in King's Landing over fleeing with Rhaella and Viserys. The primary duty of the Kingsguard is to protect and defend the king, they would choose to stay with King Aerys (then) as Rhaella and Viserys flee King's Landing. It appears that these three Kingsguard have decided that they have an obligation, by their vow, to stay to protect and defend someone at the tower (now).

“We swore a vow,” explained old Ser Gerold.
The Lord Commander is citing the Kingsguard’s vow as the reason that they must stay. He has decided that all three would remain, to protect the king. Several things contribute to this conclusion:

• The White Bull, as Ser Gerold is known, is quite the stickler when it comes to the comport of Kingsguard duties.
• Ser Gerold does not have a friendship with Rhaegar that would favor this decision.
• Ser Gerold has already stated that he would slay Jaime to protect Aerys.
• Ser Gerold’s decision to keep Arthur and Oswell with him only protects the king (the primary purpose of the Kingsguard) if the king is present at the tower.
• Ned knows that these men were honoring their Kingsguard vow. There is no other vow that Ned is ever aware of. He thinks of these three as the epitome of honor and skill. A shining example for the world.

We have Ned's interpretation of the Kingsguard's vow: His sword helped taint the throne you sit on, Ned thought, but did not permit the words to pass his lips. "He swore a vow to protect his king's life with his own. Then he opened that king's throat with a sword." Reading these three statements, with Ned's understanding we have: The Kingsguard does not flee (from its duty to protect King Aerys) then or (from its duty to protect Jon) now, because (explained) we swore a vow to protect our king's life with our own; puts things in a very clear light.

Ned’s wraiths moved up beside him, with shadow swords in hand. They were seven against three.
GRRM has confirmed that with equal equipment Ser Barristan Selmy and Ser Arthur Dayne are a close match, with Dawn in hand Ser Arthur is superior. Ser Barristan single-handedly rescued King Aerys from captivity at Duskendale. Ser Jaime Lannister expresses his awe at the defeat of the Kingswood Brotherhood and the Smiling Knight, who was slain by Ser Arthur. In the screenplay Jaime slays a dozen men before being subdued at the battle of the Whispering Woods. Kingsguard practice daily among themselves.

One of the seven is a crannogman, not known for fighting skill. Another is Ethan Glover, recently released from the Black Cells, and likely weak as well as just being Brandon's squire. It seems that even facing the odds that they do, the Kingsguard should prevail. Something odd happened, and I really look forward to GRRM telling us about it.

“And now it begins,” said Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning. He unsheathed Dawn and held it with both hands. The blade was pale as milkglass, alive with light.
The most important (first) battle of the Jon Targaryen dynasty. The mindset of the Kingsguard is that they will win the battle, and keep the secret at the tower safe until they can move to safety. There is nothing here that would indicate any fatalism on the part of Arthur. It suggests that Arthur expects to win, though we know with hindsight that they did not, and that at least Ned and Howland are aware of the secret.

“No,” Ned said with sadness in his voice. “Now it ends.”
Ned knows the outcome, and he regrets that he had to kill the three finest knights in the kingdom, even years later. If Lyanna had been kidnapped or mistreated while they were present Ned would not have that favorable view of these men. These three Kingsguard are undoubtedly living up to their "vow to guard the king", in Hightower's own words, to gain Ned's greatest respect. As fate has it, because these men were so honorable, on both sides of this meeting, they were fated to fight to the bitter end, for honor’s sake.

We also have the text of the white book about Ser Gerold Hightower from the screenplay.

Dispatched by King Areys to locate the crown Prince Rhaegar Targaryen in the wake of Robert Baratheon's rebellion. Died in the Red Mountains of Dorne alongside his sworn brothers, Ser Arthur Dayne and Ser Oswell Whent. After refusing to bow to the new King, Robert Baratheon, all three were defeated by a small force led by Eddard Stark of Winterfell.

[stateofdissipation]

I understand what you mean. My problem with that argument is that Ned confirming the name of Jon's mother to Cat isn't going to make her feel much worse about Ned's betrayal, his feeling and intent. She already suspects about Ashara and is convinced that whoever that woman is Ned must've loved her fiercely.

(I would go as far as to say that as a woman I would think Ned's silence on this argument would only make Cat think that he still have feelings for that woman, thus makes her feel even more betrayed and angry versus him and Jon. But this last part is pure speculation, so let's not take this into account. )

Ned's secret I meant him keeping the name of Jon's mother a secret from Cat.

Let me put it this way. Do you think that Jon's parents identity, mother to be more precise, is important to the whole story or not? Please speculate. After all we're discussing a theory.

I understand what you mean. My problem with that argument is that Ned confirming the name of Jon's mother to Cat isn't going to make her feel much worse about Ned's betrayal, his feeling and intent. She already suspects about Ashara and is convinced that whoever that woman is Ned must've loved her fiercely.

Making a fling on campaign into an affair that pre and post dated the marriage is making things much worse.

Ned--Cat Jon's mother was Ashara Dayne

Cat--Why was Ashara Dayne up north with the rebels instead of at Starfall?

Ned--She came up to see me.

Cat--Why did she do that?

Ned--We fell in love at Harrenhal.

Cat--Was she your first love?

Ned--Yes....

------ this gets no better.....

Cat--Is Jon's mother Ashara Dayne?

Ned--He is my blood, that is all you need know....--Kill the story--

(I would go as far as to say that as a woman I would think Ned's silence on this argument would only make Cat think that he still have feelings for that woman, thus makes her feel even more betrayed and angry versus him and Jon. But this last part is pure speculation, so let's not take this into account. )

Ned's silence made Cat feel worse... only if the truth would have made Cat feel better.

Ashara killed herself--by three accounts. Ned killing Arthur was listed as part of the cause twice. The third was Ned broke her heart. Telling Jon that Ashara was his mother, includes telling of her death and the role Ned played in it.

Ned's secret I meant him keeping the name of Jon's mother a secret from Cat.

and Jon.

I was trying to avoid the lies he had lived with for 14 years.

Let me put it this way. Do you think that Jon's parents identity, mother to be more precise, is important to the whole story or not? Please speculate. After all we're discussing a theory.

Lyanna as Jon's mother plays into the Targ interpretation of the prince that was promised... It also means the Targ interpretation was completely wrong. Prophecy is a half trained mule after all.

Ashara being Jon's mother also plays into the prince that was promised coming from the line of Jaehaerys--- instead of by their offspring it becomes by their actions. Tying Jon to house Dayne and Dawn fits well with AA and the PtwP.

--that is just off the top of my head-- not well thought out. just a possible direction of the narrative...

There are parallels between Ned and Jon that are hard to ignore..

Both had an affair when they promised not to do that.

Both chose duty over love.

Both women of the affair died.

Both took a higher position due to the murder of a friend.

Both were killed in performing the duties of the higher office.

Both deaths were linked to protecting Arya.

Both beheaded a man of the night's watch--in the book that they died in...

There are more.... those are just off the top of my head.... It is really kind of hard not to think of Jon as Ned jr...

[Voice]

True, yet we can't even place Jon at Starfall in book canon. We can place Wylla there, only as being in service to the Dayne's for sometime before Edric was born three years after the accepted birth year of Jon Snow. Which doesn't definitively place Wylla and Jon being at Starfall during Ned's visit to return Dawn.

Wylla could have been sent there later by Ned from elsewhere to hide her. Not unreasonable. Even if the non-canon opinions about Wylla being the travelling wetnurse, from Starfall to the toj back to Starfall up to Winterfell then back to Starfall, Ned would have motive to send her to Dorne when she was no longer needed.

There are further questions about this however. No one notices a wetnurse and a baby travelling with Ned. Barbrey Dustin of all people would have mentioned it. The journey back to WF was a journey of months, and not a single witness saw the great Ned Stark travelling home with a strange entourage.

ETA hmm wait. There is Cersei's stolen child comment, which always seemed to me that Cersei is pointing at Ashara. But did Cersei see this with her own eyes or was there a rumor floating around, the same as the rumors Cat hears?

The larger question is who told Edric that Wylla was Jon's mother, or even that Wylla nursed Jon Snow, bastard of Winterfell. How would that come up in conversation?

ETA 2 The first place we can place Jon is under the heart tree in Winterfell with Ned.

I totally agree that book canon does not place Jon anywhere at all, until WF. But, it does seem that wetnurses serve at a given house, like the feminine version of a maester. I'm thinking of Old Nan, and the wetnurse the Norrey(?) brought to the Wall. While they are certainly capable of travel, they seem to stay in the castle more often than not, telling the tales the maesters dismiss (like Sam's wetnurse). And when they do leave, it seems to be to serve their Lord/House. If Jon was a Targaryen, one would think he had a wetnurse sworn to that House, rather than Starfall.

Regarding the larger question, it makes sense that Edric was taught about his namesake. What does not, is that Edric is Eddard's namesake... House Dayne, who's SotM was KG and best friend of Rhaegar, named their Lord after the Rebel Lord responsible (according to Dayne-family history) for the deaths of Arthur and Ashara, and knocking up the family's wetnurse.

Clearly, these two Houses are connected by far more than we have been told. And what we've been told is already quite telling in and of itself, imo. They are linked, literally, by the Return of Dawn...

I mean, just think about that...

House Stark, and House Dayne, are linked by the Return of Dawn...

And it's getting dark.

[Mother of Dragons]

There are further questions about this however. No one notices a wetnurse and a baby travelling with Ned. Barbrey Dustin of all people would have mentioned it. The journey back to WF was a journey of months, and not a single witness saw the great Ned Stark travelling home with a strange entourage.

It could be that nobody mentioned a nurse because she was just a servant, but you got my wheels spinning, too. Could also lend credence to Wolfmaid's idea about Jon being older afterall if he's already weaned.

[Mother of Dragons]

I think it's been established that we can't use excerpts from the app as canon:

From the app we know that Ser Arthur Dayne and Ser Oswell Whent are with Prince Rhaegar when Lyanna enters the company of the prince. There is no surprise about events on the Trident expressed by any of these three. Evidently they are aware of the battle, and the outcome.

Let's try to focus on what we know directly from the text, it gets confusing if we start throwing in subjective accounts.

[The Twinslayer]

Well, who is the corpse and what's it doing there with those two?

It's a little weird, though, that Jon (male) would be symbolized by something feminine like a flower.

There are good reasons to believe that the blue roses are a symbol for Stark maidens (and maybe that they are associated with the women's deaths), not for their sons. Here is what Ygritte says about Bael the Bard.

"All I ask is a flower," Bael answered. "The fairest flower that blooms in the gardens o' Winterfell."

...

But when morning come, the singer had vanished . . . and so had Lord Brandon's maiden daughter."

There are various theories about why Dany would see a vision relating to a Stark maiden at the Wall. One got some recent support when GRRM's original plan for the series was released.

When Winterfell burns, Catelyn Stark will be forced to flee north with her son Bran her daughter Arya. Hounded by Lannister riders, they will seek refuge at the Wall, but the men of the Night's Watch give up their families when they take the black, and Jon and Benjen will not be able to help, to Jon's anguish. It will lead to a bitter estrangement between Jon and Bran. Arya will be more forgiving, until she realizes, with terror, that she has fallen in love with Jon, who is not only her half-brother but a man of the Night's Watch, sworn to celibacy.

If GRRM still intends to do this, or if he still intended to do it when he wrote Dany's HOTU vision, the blue rose may be a reference to Arya rather than Jon.

If Rhaegar did marry Lyanna then one would expect him to marry her very publicly. After all, the whole point in a marriage is to publicly announce that you are now living together with that person. If you marry in secret you may be married 'in your heart' and 'in front of the gods' but to the public - and especially to your enemies - you still would only have a concubine. That is not the point Rhaegar would have wanted to make if he married.

And Jon Connington may actually have known that Rhaegar was married. The man strangely specifies that Prince Aegon is Rhaegar's firstborn son by Elia of Dorne when he introduces him to the officers of the Golden Company - that would not necessary if Elia had been the only wife Rhaegar ever had. Conveniently Connington also never thinks about Lyanna Stark in his two chapters so it is entirely likely that he knows who Rhaegar's 'true love' was but consciously refuses to think about her.

This is the quote that convinces me that Connington does not believe that Rhaegar had a second wedding.

Jon Connington remembered Prince Rhaegar's wedding all too well. Elia was never worthy of him.

That doesn't sound like he is remembering one of two weddings.

He also says that Aegon cannot marry because he has to be "free to marry" Daenerys if she returns to Westeros, which implies that Connington does not believe that polygamy is an option.

As far as calling Aegon the "firstborn son of Rhaegar, Prince of Dragonstone, by Princess Elia of Dorne," I think that just means that Rhaegar and Elia had no other sons before Aegon. It doesn't mean that Connington thinks Rhaegar had another wife. And, even if you read it to imply that Rhaegar had another son, it doesn't imply that Connington believes that the younger son is trueborn.

[Voice]

What's important is why GRRM called it the ToJ, not why Rhaegar did. A novelist doesn't put a white whale in their book without meaning it.

I won't claim to know GRRM's motivations, sounds like questionable territory to me. If you're right, however, I'd lean towards it being a red herring of a nod.

I agree that does seem to have a strong bearing on Jon's whereabouts. It strongly implies he was either at Starfall, or somewhere not too far from Starfall in the presence of a Dayne who could conveniently ship in a wetnurse from there.

Indeed. And as quickly as Starfall solves these logistical problems, the toj creates them. The toj is not where a man leaves a pregnant woman that he "loved". Only ten people are placed at the tower, in canon, and none of them are named Lyanna.

I don't think we should conclude it was for no reason other than building cairns. I think it's supposed to tell us just how painful Ned's memory of the event there were, that he wanted to destroy the tower, scorch the earth. Demolishing or at least rendering useless an enemies fortification isn't an unusual idea, there's even a word for it -- "slighting". However I don't see him leaving the bodies for the buzzards, and I see no reason to assume that it would take significantly more time building cairns from the convenient stones of the fallen tower than scouring the area and carrying stones back.

The canon states the but one purpose, and that is the building of cairns. The rest rings of fan fic. Scorched-earth roid-rage does not sound very Ned-like.

Nor do we know that Ned's near death experience indicates he took any sort of injury. Maybe Howland said "DUCK!" at the right moment. Maybe Dayne had killed the other five of Ned's men and Ned believed he would have been next, but then Howland unleashed Kekex the Frog who did indeed defeat Dayne in single combat.

So Ned was unscathed after facing the greatest knight he'd ever known? Ok.

Moat Cailin is a massive castle. Totally different situation.

You brought up the Moat.

Load-bearing joists, no. On the other hand a stone foundation with part wood construction above is quite possible. Burning wouldn't be enough to destroy the foundation walls, but burning plus a bit of horse-work could demolish the building sufficiently. Your fencepost is stuck into the ground, while the tower might be drystone walling without foundation. It was a common building method for small to medium sized towers for thousands of years. You're talking one horse, Ned probably had 10 or more. We're talking about as much hauling power as a medium sized tractor. Using a team of oxen might be preferred, but using a team of horses to yank down bits of masonry wasn't exactly unheard of before the invention of the explosives, wrecking balls etc.

Unless the toj was structurally supported by wood, fire would not damage its integrity.

Again, considering the duel, the dead sister, the locale, the canon placing only the ten combatants there, and possibly a babe in arms, the type of structure you propose seems exceedingly improbable. Again, Ned recalls pulling it down "himself" and building 8 cairns from its bloody stones. He makes no mention of using horses nor fire nor rage.

If we assume that "long fallen" means 14 years and that the tower was closely-mortared stonework of high quality, then yes Ned would have had considerable difficulty demolishing it without a team of sappers to undermine the structure. As there's nothing to imply that, the most likely reading is that GRRM thought of the tower as being in sufficiently poor condition that it was reasonable for Ned and Howland and a team of horses to yank a few walls down. I just don't see there being a problem there unless we chose to imagine one. There's nothing in the text as far as I've seen to imply that GRRM considered it a problem. Even if you do, that's the only thing that's important -- and remember that GRRM has arrows reaching the top of a 700 foot wall, and should be given a bit of leeway in mechanical matters.

Nah, the most likely reading imo is that the tower was small enough for Ned to pull down, himself, afterward. That reading requires no invention on our part.

I have a feeling you will disagree ;) and that's cool. No hard feelings. I only ask that you understand that from my perspective, it seems people want the toj to fit a very nuanced romantic interpretation that is really suggested far less by canon, and far more by fan interpretation.

[Lord Varys]

stateofdissipation,

the first year after Rhaegar's marriage was 280 AC, not the Year of the False Spring. So we can't be entirely sure that Ashara remained at court after Harrenhal. Say, she might have been forced to leave the service of the Princess Consort of Dragonstone if she was publicly deflowered there by a man.

Oh, and by the way, Ashara killing herself soon after her stillborn problem could refer to a child conceived at Harrenhal. Selmy is remembering stuff nearly twenty years later - a year later could be soon in that scenario.

Age stuff:

I know that Jon Snow is younger than Robb in the official version but considering that there didn't pass nine months between Ned's wedding and the end of the war it is all but impossible that this is the case. George can easily decide that Jon was conceived when Rhaegar and Lyanna had first sex - if they didn't have sex for quite some time after the abduction. We also don't know if Jon Snow was born prematurely or not, nor can we be certain what exactly killed Lyanna. It may have been an infection, but it also could have been an injury leading to a much quicker death.

I didn't ask when Ned supposedly met Wylla, I wondered where this supposedly happened. That should be part of Ned's cover story - was it in the Riverlands or somewhere in the South?

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

There are good reasons to believe that the blue roses are a symbol for Stark maidens (and maybe that they are associated with the women's deaths), not for their sons. Here is what Ygritte says about Bael the Bard.

There are various theories about why Dany would see a vision relating to a Stark maiden at the Wall. One got some recent support when GRRM's original plan for the series was released.

If GRRM still intends to do this, or if he still intended to do it when he wrote Dany's HOTU vision, the blue rose may be a reference to Arya rather than Jon.

This is the quote that convinces me that Connington does not believe that Rhaegar had a second wedding.

That doesn't sound like he is remembering one of two weddings.

He also says that Aegon cannot marry because he has to be "free to marry" Daenerys if she returns to Westeros, which implies that Connington does not believe that polygamy is an option.

As far as calling Aegon the "firstborn son of Rhaegar, Prince of Dragonstone, by Princess Elia of Dorne," I think that just means that Rhaegar and Elia had no other sons before Aegon. It doesn't mean that Connington thinks Rhaegar had another wife. And, even if you read it to imply that Rhaegar had another son, it doesn't imply that Connington believes that the younger son is trueborn.

While I believe that "firstborn son of Rhaegar" might be a hint to the reader that Rhaegar might have had more than one son, I think that in-story, Jon is simply emphasizing that Aegon is Rhaegar's heir, for the purpose of Aegon's conquest.

With JonCon's negative memories of Rhaegar's wedding to Elia, I would find it strange if he would completely omit Rhaegar's second wedding, if he had known about it.

[Don't Stop BeLieJeRing ❤️]

Hi, I'm newly registered, but I have been lurking and reading these boards for awhile. I couldn't find an introduce yourself thread, so I thought I'd start here with my favorite theory :)

I for one, do not think RLJ is the most obvious answer. The only reason anybody argues that is because of the Internet. GRRM's style is subtle, and so is RLJ, with thinly veiled hints of clues scattered here and there.

While technically yes, it's just a theory, isn't it telling that nobody else seems to be able to come up with another workable theory that is widely accepted? If something else made sense, I think more people would be accepting of different alternatives.

I look forward to posting here and getting to know everyone:)

[MtnLion]

I think it's been established that we can't use excerpts from the app as canon:

Let's try to focus on what we know directly from the text, it gets confusing if we start throwing in subjective accounts.

Oh, really? Does that include all of the SSMs, too? Perhaps the world book is out to lunch, and do away with all of the Dunk and Eggs? We do know that the only place that Rhaegar was without his sworn swords was when he was at Summerhall. It is no great leap to connect Arthur and Oswell as Rhaegar's sworn swords, even without the app confirming it.

[stateofdissipation]

stateofdissipation,

the first year after Rhaegar's marriage was 280 AC, not the Year of the False Spring. So we can't be entirely sure that Ashara remained at court after Harrenhal. Say, she might have been forced to leave the service of the Princess Consort of Dragonstone if she was publicly deflowered there by a man.

Oh, and by the way, Ashara killing herself soon after her stillborn problem could refer to a child conceived at Harrenhal. Selmy is remembering stuff nearly twenty years later - a year later could be soon in that scenario.

Age stuff:

I know that Jon Snow is younger than Robb in the official version but considering that there didn't pass nine months between Ned's wedding and the end of the war it is all but impossible that this is the case. George can easily decide that Jon was conceived when Rhaegar and Lyanna had first sex - if they didn't have sex for quite some time after the abduction. We also don't know if Jon Snow was born prematurely or not, nor can we be certain what exactly killed Lyanna. It may have been an infection, but it also could have been an injury leading to a much quicker death.

I didn't ask when Ned supposedly met Wylla, I wondered where this supposedly happened. That should be part of Ned's cover story - was it in the Riverlands or somewhere in the South?

the first year after Rhaegar's marriage was 280 AC, not the Year of the False Spring. So we can't be entirely sure that Ashara remained at court after Harrenhal.

Rhaegar's marriage was in early 280 as Rhaenys was born that year.

We know Ashara was a lady companion of Elia during the first years of her marriage in King's Landing (per SSM) )

Counting 2 years... the minimum for the plural. Ashara was to early 282

Elia was at Dragonstone in late 281 or early 282 with Aegon (Per world book).

Some time in late 281 or early 282, Elia was no longer a lady companion of Elia at King's Landing.

Say, she might have been forced to leave the service of the Princess Consort of Dragonstone if she was publicly deflowered there by a man.

This could be the case. However, we already have Elia leaving King's Landing after the first years of her marriage to Rhaegar.

Oh, and by the way, Ashara killing herself soon after her stillborn problem could refer to a child conceived at Harrenhal.

Ugh... 281 Harrenhal, 282 rebellion, 283 Ned visits Ashara....

If Selmy considers a year-- soon after or thinks it takes year to produce a baby....

Selmy is remembering stuff nearly twenty years later - a year later could be soon in that scenario.

Selmy was not there. He is recalling something that he was told. After the Trident Selmy was pardoned and entered Robert's kingsguard. So the person that told Selmy would have to think babies take a year to develop or a year is soon after.

I know that Jon Snow is younger than Robb in the official version

OK

but considering that there didn't pass nine months between Ned's wedding and the end of the war it is all but impossible that this is the case.

The war had raged for close to a year to the sack of King's Landing according to Ned.

Gulltown to King's Landing close to a year.

Dany was born 9 moons after the sack. (before the fall of Dragonstone and the end of the war)

That is 20 months of war spanning 282-284

Placing the battle of the bells less than 9 months before the end of the war makes it happen before the Trident and the sack.

Additionally Cat states that Ned was gone for the first year of their marriage fighting the war.

There was time.

George can easily decide that Jon was conceived when Rhaegar and Lyanna had first sex - if they didn't have sex for quite some time after the abduction. We also don't know if Jon Snow was born prematurely or not,

We have a semi-solid date for Jon's birth in relation to Dany's

If Jon was Lyanna's son and her pregnancy was less than or equal to the normal 270 days-- Jon was conceived not earlier than close to 3 months after the rebellion started... which was after the abduction.

nor can we be certain what exactly killed Lyanna.

Lyanna had lost her strength to a fever. she was in her bed of blood, and in a room that smelled of blood and roses.

It may have been an infection, but it also could have been an injury leading to a much quicker death.

Bed of blood is a synecdoche for childbirth.... hard to escape that.

I didn't ask when Ned supposedly met Wylla, I wondered where this supposedly happened.

Within the first three months following his marriage otherwise there is no baby at Winterfell when Cat arrives after the first year apart.

That should be part of Ned's cover story - was it in the Riverlands or somewhere in the South?

We do not have some key information...

Time between the Battle of the Bells and the Trident.---between 1 and 10 months

Location of forces between the Battle of the Bells and the Trident.--no information

[Mother of Dragons]

Oh, really? Does that include all of the SSMs, too? Perhaps the world book is out to lunch, and do away with all of the Dunk and Eggs? We do know that the only place that Rhaegar was without his sworn swords was when he was at Summerhall. It is no great leap to connect Arthur and Oswell as Rhaegar's sworn swords, even without the app confirming it.

Only the books by George are canon. Ran even confirmed this with Weasel Pie. Remember? The app is "semi canon".

And as for the WB, straight from the horse's mouth:

http://www.vulture.com/2014/11/george-rr-martin-new-book.html

I'd include D&E with the canon since GRRM wrote those books himself.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

but considering that there didn't pass nine months between Ned's wedding and the end of the war it is all but impossible that this is the case.

The war had raged for close to a year to the sack of King's Landing according to Ned.

Gulltown to King's Landing close to a year.

Dany was born 9 moons after the sack. (before the fall of Dragonstone and the end of the war)

That is 20 months of war spanning 282-284

Placing the battle of the bells less than 9 months before the end of the war makes it happen before the Trident and the sack.

Additionally Cat states that Ned was gone for the first year of their marriage fighting the war.

The war is counted from Jon Arryn calling his banners until the Sack.. That's not 20 months of war.. The war itself lasted only "close to a year".

Only the books by George are canon. Ran even confirmed this with Weasel Pie. Remember? The app is "semi canon".

And as for the WB, straight from the horse's mouth:

http://www.vulture.com/2014/11/george-rr-martin-new-book.html

I'd include D&E with the canon since GRRM wrote those books himself.

This post of Ran might be of interest, posted today.

On a separate note..

I mentioned this on the first page of the thread, but apparently, no one saw it?

Also, this was recently asked in Small Questions, and no one seems to have known an answer (no one answered), but I thought that perhaps, it might fit here as well, seeing as the passage in question is discussed so often here:

Does anyone have any idea's?

[BearQueen87]

From Ran (in the post Rhaenys posted)

But as far as it is possible for the book to be authoritative about things like well documented events and facts, it is authoritative and to have that authority it must obviously be canon.

Would we all agree that Harrenhal and the events after fits that? Since people still living are recounting/have recounted that event for the World Book?

[stateofdissipation]

The war is counted from Jon Arryn calling his banners until the Sack.. That's not 20 months of war.. The war itself lasted only "close to a year".

This post of Ran might be of interest, posted today.

On a separate note..

I mentioned this on the first page of the thread, but apparently, no one saw it?

Does anyone have any idea's?

The war is counted from Jon Arryn calling his banners until the Sack.. That's not 20 months of war.. The war itself lasted only "close to a year".

The war had raged for close to a year. Lords great and small had flocked to Robert's banners, others remained loyal to Targaryen, The Mighty Lannisters of Casterly Rock, the Wardens of the West, had remained aloof from the struggle ignoring calls to arms from both rebels and royalists... aGoT page 110.

Dany was born on Dragonstone 9 moons after Rhaella's flight from King's Landing. The exile of the remaining Targaryens and Robert's complete control of the seven kingdoms marked the end of the war.

9 months plus close to a year...

The battle of Gulltown was the first recorded battle of the war. It is kind of difficult for war to "rage" without battles.