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Balon Greyjoys master plan


Voramir Glover

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Everybody is complaining about how stupid the idea of Balon Greyjoy was to invade the north. But I think that the ironborn could have succesfully hold the north against the northmens once they took it. I mean, they conquered Moat Cailin, Deepwood Motte and Winterfell.



Assumed that Balon Greyjoy didn't die and the Greyjoys didn't leave the north to catch dragons, I think they had pretty good chances to win against the Boltons after the Red Wedding. Roose had about ~7.000 men when he made his way back to the north, Ramsay had only ~600 Dreadfort men. With Victarion and his men holding Moat Cailin, the Boltons wouldn't be able to retake the castle and were trapped in the riverlands.



The only person who could actually beat them is Stannis at the wall. But I don't think that there was any chance to see Stannis coming north, so I don't blame Balon for his decision.



Any other opinions?


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Balon was a bit stupid because the Starks were ready to let and help his kingdom exist, and had no fleet able to threaten him even if they changed their mind.


On the other hand whoever was going to win the iron throne (Joff or a Baratheon brother) was going to want to destroy him as soon the Starks and other rivals were dealt with, with the support of the large Redwyne fleet (+ the other large one of Stannis if it hadn't been destroyed), fleets who had already defeated him one time.


Balon succeeding would probably have led to Ironborn being forced to flee their islands, stormed like in his first rebellion, for the easier to defend north.


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I'm not sure he planned very far ahead. Taking a few coastal forts gave him a buffer. His goal was independence and a return to reaving. His goal, like most rebellions, wasn't to win the war, but to not lose the war. There was no need to conquer the North, just to put up a strong enough defense until they gave up and let him have his kingdom.



Attacking Winterfell was stupid, but that wasn't his idea.


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Balon was a bit stupid because the Starks were ready to let and help his kingdom exist, and had no fleet able to threaten him even if they changed their mind.

Exactly, they have no fleet, which makes the alliance with the North completely one-sided as the North cannot come to the rescue of its ally should the Iron Throne sail for the Isles with either the Royal or Redwyne fleet.

Balon's mistake does not lie in attacking the North, it lies in declaring independence, insuring th eIron Throne is antagonized.

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Balon was a bit stupid because the Starks were ready to let and help his kingdom exist, and had no fleet able to threaten him even if they changed their mind.

On the other hand whoever was going to win the iron throne (Joff or a Baratheon brother) was going to want to destroy him as soon the Starks and other rivals were dealt with, with the support of the large Redwyne fleet (+ the other large one of Stannis if it hadn't been destroyed), fleets who had already defeated him one time.

Balon succeeding would probably have led to Ironborn being forced to flee their islands, stormed like in his first rebellion, for the easier to defend north.

Actualy at the time it looked like nost of the royal fleet under stannis would be facing whats left of the royal navy at kl + lannister fleet with the,redwynes being under renly.....a 3 way that wouldnt leave,the,winner with a much reduced fleet

Also like the 1st rebellion whats,left has to actualy beat the ironborn at,sea

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How was Victarion going to hold Moat Cailin in the long term? The destruction of Rodrik and the Winterfell forces wasn't in Balon's original plan, as it was the result of Theon taking Winterfell and allying with Ramsay. So there would have been near 3,000 Northmen eventually descending on the Moat from the rear, all while the crannogmen continued to harry the Ironborn defenders. Then of course you have the Manderly reserves we're now seeing at the Battle of Ice, who with enough time would have helped sweep the Ironborn out of Deepwood and the Stoney Shore.

The Ironborn conquerors of ages past only held onto their lands because. They used the local lords effectively, and thebriverlands have them natural quick transport routes for their smaller ships. The North presents none of those options, so holding it long-term would have been very logistically difficult. And that's without brining up whomever is sitting on the Iron Throne not being cool with Balon's plan.

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First of all, it was not his plan to take Winterfell. Even he knew it would be almost impossible to take and impossible to maintain. The stupidity is not related to the defense at Moat Cailin, but the control of the North from within.



1. The mountain clans, Skagos, most of the Dustin forces, ser Rodrik, the crannogmen, and many, many more forces that didn't have enough time to go South with Robb were still in the North. None of them would welcome the Ironborn.


2. The North is almost as big as all the other Kingdoms combined, while the Iron Islands are the smallest. Even if you put all their manpower into this effort, even disregarding the local forces, they just cannot man the whole North, not even the western half of it. The Nights Watch, with the world's greatest defensive barrier at their disposal barely manages to keep 3 castles with 100 men. How many men would the IB need for each northern castle? Probably thousands for each. How many do they have? No exact figures, but not nearly enough.


3. The North is a continental country. The IB are not cut for the stationary life, especially away from the sea. Add the approaching winter, and you end up with a few fish in the middle of a huge desert.


4. What wealth is there in the North to be plundered? Very little, compared to all the other regions in the Kingdoms.


5. They had the chance to ally with the North, a major player int he Wot5K, but instead, Balon prefers to wage his own war and end up alone.



So yes, it was an extremely stupid, just a plain dumb move by Balon.


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Balon didn't plan on taking Winterfell (nor Torrhen's Square).



Ser Rodrik Cassel was confident that he could relieve Deepwood Motte in time, which would have solved that issue.



Howland Reed turned Moat Cailin into hell, while his children were still hostages. Afterwards, he pretty much wipes out the remaining Ironborn, and that's without any support from the rest of the North (which had more than enough manpower left).



Conquering a couple unimportant castles wouldn't get the Ironborn control over the North, far from it.



The Iron Islands would have had to face the IT anyway, their only potential ally being the North they just attacked.




Basically, the only reason that the Ironborn lasted as long as they did, was Theon acting against orders, Rodrik Cassel carrying the idiot ball, and Ramsay starting a civil war and taking out the entire northern leadership in the North.


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Balon's way was the old way. Ned Stark already paid the Iron Price. He killed Balon's sons, He took Balon's castle, He made Balon give up his son to save his miserable life. Ned Stark paid the Iron Price for the Seastone Chair and dismissed it. Ned Stark paid the Iron Price for Theon's life. Balon, rather than being a true Iron Born and standing and fighting and dying like Dagmer Cleftjaw desires to do, grovel's for his life and sends away his only son to save his life.

Balon is all about paying the Iron Price for the Seastone Chair. This is why he needs to attack the Starks, he needs to pay the Iron Price for the Seastone Chair and the return to the old ways. The only way he can do that is to win that right back from those who took it. The real insult to Balon here is that rather than being given a chance to win his Kingdom and his Son by paying the Iron price Robb Stark just gives both to him, on a silver platter for no real price.

Balon is operating on completely different logic to us. He must pay the Iron Price for his hearts desire, he can't just accept it as a gift almost as if the giver (Robb Stark) didn't value them at all. It's a further diss to Balon that Robb just "gives" him his son and his kingdom, as if Balon were of such little consequence that he didn't needed to be respected.

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Balon was an idiot. Nothing else to see there.



Civil war in Westeros was a godsend for Balon and the Ironborn. He could have done a number of things that would have benefited them in a far more meaningful way. Instead, the plank chose revenge. A misplaced sense of revenge at that.


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Balon was an idiot. Nothing else to see there.

Civil war in Westeros was a godsend for Balon and Ironborn. He could have done a number of things that would have benefited them in a far more meaningful. Instead, the plank chose revenge. A misplaced sense of revenge at that.

I agree on him being an idiot, just unbelievably irrational. I don't agree on the revenge. Revenge requires an injustice to be met by equal, or even overproportional response.

He lost his sons because he attacked. If there is any revenge involved, their death is the revenge the IT takes.

He has either lost his mind from the loss of his sons, thus believing the world owes him something, or pretends to believe so using his loss as a pretext to start a war (the wrong one too).

Hot Pie would have been a much better strategist. He would have had the sense to attack the food-rich Reach or Westerland at least.

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I agree on him being an idiot, just unbelievably irrational. I don't agree on the revenge. Revenge requires an injustice to be met by equal, or even overproportional response.

He lost his sons because he attacked. If there is any revenge involved, their death is the revenge the IT takes.

He has either lost his mind from the loss of his sons, thus believing the world owes him something, or pretends to believe so using his loss as a pretext to start a war (the wrong one too).

Hot Pie would have been a much better strategist. He would have had the sense to attack the food-rich Reach or Westerland at least.

I agree. That's why I said the revenge was misplaced.

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I dont know if you're trolling or not.



What makes you think Balon could have even held Moat Cailin?? Look at the condition of the IB when Ramsay descends upon them. The Crannogmen were making life hell even when Victarion was there. Robb needn't have even assaulted MC - the Cranngomen would have made short work of the IB.



Also Everybody is ignoring that MC is not the only way into the North. Robb confirmed that there were hidden passages through the neck that only the crannogmen knew about. He was about to send 4k of his men north via this road and they would attack MC from the North - the direction where it is extremely vulnerable.



Also Robb had lots of betrayals to worry about - Balon could not have known Roose would Betray Robb or that Ramsay would destroy Rodrik's army or that the RW would happen. The only reason the IB held out so long was because the Northmen were divided and fighting among themselves. Basically it took a lot of lucky turns for Balon's plan to even begin to look like a success.



Not to mention about the remaining strength of the North. Rodrik quickly assembles 2k men, Ramsay has 600, Dustin and Ryswells are near peak strength since they sent few men with Robb, Mountain clans have 3-4k and the Manderlys also have at least 5k. All the North needs is a leader - there are plenty of men. Had Robb reached the North via the trails of the neck the war would have been over. The IB would have been kicked out faster than they knew whats happening.

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I'm not sure he planned very far ahead. Taking a few coastal forts gave him a buffer. His goal was independence and a return to reaving. His goal, like most rebellions, wasn't to win the war, but to not lose the war. There was no need to conquer the North, just to put up a strong enough defense until they gave up and let him have his kingdom.

Attacking Winterfell was stupid, but that wasn't his idea.

I assumed this was his plan as well. The one area I will say was a bit confusing was that he had no way to really defend against a Baratheon/ Lannister force and no way to make them want to grant him freedom, so I can only assume he was going to go to them with a "hey the enemy of my enemy is my friend" so let's team up and you let me be free and I'll just reave the north happily forever after.

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I think he was counting on the fact that the claimants for the Iron Throne were completely focused on each other. Even when the Iron Born go after the shield islands and the arbor, the Lannisters can't immediately respond. Now this is largely Cersei's fault, but even if she hadn't given the navy away in exchange for a smile, the Iron Throne did not have naval strength in position to actually attack the Iron Islands.


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Everybody is complaining about how stupid the idea of Balon Greyjoy was to invade the north. But I think that the ironborn could have succesfully hold the north against the northmens once they took it. I mean, they conquered Moat Cailin, Deepwood Motte and Winterfell.

Assumed that Balon Greyjoy didn't die and the Greyjoys didn't leave the north to catch dragons, I think they had pretty good chances to win against the Boltons after the Red Wedding. Roose had about ~7.000 men when he made his way back to the north, Ramsay had only ~600 Dreadfort men. With Victarion and his men holding Moat Cailin, the Boltons wouldn't be able to retake the castle and were trapped in the riverlands.

The only person who could actually beat them is Stannis at the wall. But I don't think that there was any chance to see Stannis coming north, so I don't blame Balon for his decision.

Any other opinions?

Your vision is a bit skewed here though. Did Balon realise that there would be a civil war when he attacked? That there were 3 powerful houses going at it over some land? Or that Ser Rodrik would be such an inept leader? Not to mention the fact that he never planned for Winterfell. Had these not occurred then the ironborn would already be thrown back everywhere but Moat Cailin. Rodrik would also have had a far larger host

And how is Stannis and his 1500 men more likely to win back the north then Roose and his 7000?

I do think his plan was ok up to a certain point but it was always going to fail. The north is too big, too far away from home and too cold to hold

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