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The North Marching to War Again


Belgarad

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I've seen a lot of people speculating that once the Stannis vs. the Boltons issue is resolved that the remaining forces in the North would be very reluctant to march south to war again because of the impending arrival of winter. Wouldn't going to war be the ideal situation for the northern peoples? Doing so would remove a huge number of mouths to feed in the upcoming winter. It is stated numerous times that it's tradition for the elderly men to "go hunting" during winter to reduce the number of mouths to feed and make the stores last longer. Also preparations for this particular winter have been severely hampered by men already sent to war leaving the available food stores in a worse shape than is normal for winter.



The logistics of marching again will be severely hampered due to the weather, but as Asha's chapters have shown the Northmen are much, much more capable of moving their forces during inclement weather than those from the south. The Mountain Clans barely lose anyone when the Southron soldiers were dropping like flies on the march to Winterfell. Considering the Manderly fleet, the remaining northern forces just need to make it to White Harbour in order to find the necessary transport to the southern kingdoms.




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Eh, the North is pretty much fought out by this point. Robb's entire army was wiped out, the Ironborn pillaged and sacked everything on the west coast, Winterfell burned and ruined twice over, and now with Stannis bringing the war to the North, basically pitting one half of what's left against the other half, by the time all is said and done they're not going to have much left to send south even if they wanted to. They might have enough left in them to backstab Stannis if you buy into the GNC, but even that would be a tall order.


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Logistically this one would be tough. It seemed hard in aSoS to get the wilding horde (which was warriors + tons of civilians) to move quickly, or with purpose. How will they do it in the war ravaged north, through the crazy winter weather that is snowing Stannis and everyone in?



But its not a bad idea to save the people, in a way. North is snowy and they didn't prepare a good harvest because of the war and pillaging. If there was some way to get the people south in time it might be for the best, assuming there south has enough extra food to feed them. The riverlands are brutalized. The Reach probably has some food, although those forces might have seen fighting. The Westerlands probably have a surplus. The Vale definately does. And the Tyrels. Well now I am almost talking myself into this idea!


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Marching South to war still needs food and supplies for more than 1,000 mile journey which includes the horses and the general camp followers. IIRC a medieval soldier would need almost double the amount of calories than his peasant equivalent.




The men who 'go hunting' are not taking food with them, their reasons to go is to leave more food not take it. We also have seen how only particular horses can be used in the North during Winter, which is going to mean little cavalry and harder to carry siege equipment.



While it is not impossible, they would be more of a nuisance than a general threat.


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The idea of harvests being hampered is ridiculous IMO, it sounds like a lie created by the Northerners to make themselves sound spent.

If a medieval country could support only 1% of it's people during wartime, and the North expended only half of their capacity, I find it unlikely that 0.5% of the population affects harvests that significantly.

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Wouldn't going to war be the ideal situation for the northern peoples? Doing so would remove a huge number of mouths to feed in the upcoming winter. It is stated numerous times that it's tradition for the elderly men to "go hunting" during winter to reduce the number of mouths to feed and make the stores last longer.

But war does the exact opposite. It leaves the elderly men behind, and kills off all the young men. The same young men who do all the reaping of autumn crops, building of storehouses and animal shelters, slaughtering of animals, toting and transporting of stores and imports, etc. Women can pick up some of the slack, but not all of it--after all, they still have to do all the "women's work" at the same time as picking up the "men's work", and there are only so many hours in a day.

And of course an army marches on its stomach. A feudal war needs a supply train, which means taking some of those desperately needed supplies away from the people. You can do some foraging as you go, especially when you're tramping through enemy territory, but not enough to supply an entire war effort. (A barbarian army can exact tribute from some towns, while taking everything worth carrying and burning the rest to the ground from others, but that doesn't go over too well when you're trying to, say, win the Riverlands over to your side.) It's been established that someone with money, or a good line of credit, can get food shipped in from outside, and given the state of naval transport and the shape of the continent it seems plausible that they could do this continuously, so this might not be a problem for a Stannis-led army of northerners, but I don't see the North being able to feed an army on its own this way. Especially since if they have that money, they'll need it to buy food for the people left behind.

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Sort of. The North still has a ripe supply of manpower. And getting those mouths out of the country would be indeed beneficial. Organization is going to be the problem. Stannis or Rickon could solve that.



Sieging castles is something the Northmen won't be able to do. A siege during the winter is simply not possible. But raiding the shit out of the area of operations and wasting any armies coming after them, that they can do. Easily.


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Depends, if stannis can make the case that him winning the throne would guarantee much needed food and provisions from the south (also from the IB loan), then they might march south with him , especially if the riverlands and vale seem like they might join stannis (promises being made via ravens). But if the weather doesn't improve in anyway, then no one is going anywhere.


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I'm going to avoid the obvious "white walkers are coming, they should be marching north not south" line.

The north has already suffered severe casualties among its male population due to the war of five kings, red wedding, iron born invasion, Bolton betrayal at winterfell, and the upcoming battle of winterfell. You need a male population around regardless so unless the entire population of the north, families and all, are marching south (which would be pretty unrealistic/ impossible) it really wouldn't benefit the north for the last of the men to go south.

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I've seen a lot of people speculating that once the Stannis vs. the Boltons issue is resolved that the remaining forces in the North would be very reluctant to march south to war again because of the impending arrival of winter. Wouldn't going to war be the ideal situation for the northern peoples? Doing so would remove a huge number of mouths to feed in the upcoming winter. It is stated numerous times that it's tradition for the elderly men to "go hunting" during winter to reduce the number of mouths to feed and make the stores last longer. Also preparations for this particular winter have been severely hampered by men already sent to war leaving the available food stores in a worse shape than is normal for winter.

The logistics of marching again will be severely hampered due to the weather, but as Asha's chapters have shown the Northmen are much, much more capable of moving their forces during inclement weather than those from the south. The Mountain Clans barely lose anyone when the Southron soldiers were dropping like flies on the march to Winterfell. Considering the Manderly fleet, the remaining northern forces just need to make it to White Harbour in order to find the necessary transport to the southern kingdoms.

Entirely possible, but the questions is how much strength the North can put into the field. Robb has already, as far as I know, taken the flower of the North with him to die in the Riverlands and so its the second and third choices who are left.

The North lost (Including those alive south of the neck) roughly 14,000 men. Out of a 3,750,000 population, that slides into insignificance.

Problem is that you can't count like this in Westeros. For practical and cultural reasons, most people will be deemed unfit for war. For the start Westeros, including most of the North, is sexism so half the population goes out in regards to women being excluded. That leaves us with 1 875 000 people left. And then we shouldn't forget the people killed by the Ironborn or Ramsay in the North so Northern losses should be, at the least, 20 000 or so, based on the Northmen that Ramsay attacked at Winterfell.

And then from this we are only talking about the fit, reliable and young men, the ones who are the most productive in a medieval society, leaving the green boys and old men outside of it. The question then comes to, in a society where almost everything is done by muscle power, how much muscle power can be taken away from the economy without it collapsing behind them? Women can do a great deal of things, but I don't think that neither women nor men can do 200% physical labor for any extended period. And the question of what food the troops should carry along during the winter, as it will be taken from the winter stores untill and so denied the people left behind etc.

In short, I don't think that th North can raise a second large army unless they want to put the North into a wilderness, although I agree that they can probably raise a new army to support Stannis if Stannis would make it over the Boltons.

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There are, at least, 300,000 men aged 20-30. Not buying that taking a few of them away would affect the workforce significantly.

Plagues have been known to kill 10-50% of a population, and only at the high end have they caused major political unrest and famine.

As for the battle of Winterfell, remember that it was a not so bloody battle. I believe George said that a mere 200 men died there in an SSM.

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There are, at least, 300,000 men aged 20-30. Not buying that taking a few of them away would affect the workforce significantly.

But it has. We have more than enough evidence to show that it has.

Both the Umbers and Karstarks complained about not having enough healthy men to bring in the last harvest.

Hornwood did not have enough men to protect Lady Hornwood from the Bolton men.

Deepwood Motte was taken by a 1,000 men in a month. In that time they could not raise an army from the lands to challenge a 1,000.

Winterfell was left with old men and boys after Robb went North, men who were poorly equipped for war and were easily dealt with by Ramsay.

Sure, the North has millions of people left. But that army would just be fodder similar to that of the 100k Wildings were against Stannis and his Southern knights. Leading them South would be a slaughter, a Northern leader would be mental to do it.

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Wouldn't going to war be the ideal situation for the northern peoples? Doing so would remove a huge number of mouths to feed in the upcoming winter. It is stated numerous times that it's tradition for the elderly men to "go hunting" during winter to reduce the number of mouths to feed and make the stores last longer. Also preparations for this particular winter have been severely hampered by men already sent to war leaving the available food stores in a worse shape than is normal for winter.

While we've had plenty to suggest that the North is beaten and out, we've also been left with exactly this possibility. GRRM originally intended there to be a five-year gap, long enough for the North to rebuild its strength. With that gap vanishing he appears to have added some strength here and there to compensate, but he may be intending more. From the world book, we've got the story of Cregan Stark and "The Hour of the Wolf":

But behind them came a greater army of childless and homeless men, unwed men, old men, and younger sons, under the banner of Lord Cregan Stark. They had come for a war, for adventure and plunder, and for a glorious death to spare their kin beyond the Neck one more mouth to feed.

The poisoning of King Aegon II had denied them that chance. Lord Stark still marched his army into King’s Landing, but to a much different outcome. He had planned to punish Storm’s End, Oldtown, and Casterly Rock for having supported the king.

While the other kingdoms would have been considerably weakened by war, it's telling that this mass winter mobilisation of the North is such a vast army that it can threaten the combined might of The Reach, the Westerlands and the Stormlands, and effectively dominate King's Landing. GRRM has certainly left himself the option of a major Northern force heading south for the winter.

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While we've had plenty to suggest that the North is beaten and out, we've also been left with exactly this possibility. GRRM originally intended there to be a five-year gap, long enough for the North to rebuild its strength. With that gap vanishing he appears to have added some strength here and there to compensate, but he may be intending more. From the world book, we've got the story of Cregan Stark and "The Hour of the Wolf":

The Karstarks not having enough men to bring in their last harvest was only brought in ADWD.

We know that the Umbers are down to old men and young boys, that was not revealed till ADWD and the Theon chapter in TWOW.

There does not seem to be too much change in the Northern military.

While the other kingdoms would have been considerably weakened by war, it's telling that this mass winter mobilisation of the North

They only lost 4,000 during the War. Robb lost far more. Had Robb only sent a 4,000 army South(instead of under 20k) then you would have more of a point, that maybe the North could mobilize a significant army to threaten the South.

is such a vast army that it can threaten the combined might of The Reach, the Westerlands and the Stormlands, and effectively dominate King's Landing. GRRM has certainly left himself the option of a major Northern force heading south for the winter.

It wasn't just the North vs every one else. It was also the Riverlands who actually were the ones who beat the Stormlands as well Lady Jeyne and the powerful Velaryons.

The regions in the war were decimated. It was a very bloody two year war. The regions, Westerlands, Crownlands and Reach especially would have been weaker than their present day counterparts.

And remember that even taking those mouths out of the North there was still significant famine in the North during that winter.

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Not really.

England had a population of 5-6million by the end of the 13th century. Having that many people in the medieval ages did not translate into bigger armies.

A bit off topic, but those numbers are old estimates that are probably not true from what I've read.

Going by the amount of land under cultivation and how productive medieval agricultural methods were, even a population of only 4 million should have resulted in an average of less than 2000 calories per person/day. Average. Meaning that the commoners would be eating even less than that considering that the upper classes definitely didn't follow any slim diets. So in light of that a population of 5-6 million seems pretty unlikely.

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Um the main force against the North the Westerlands got annihilated during the war.They lost waaay more men then the North did and had to sweep through Lannisport recruiting everyone just to field an army.And iirc Manderly states he can field 10000 men and I don't think he's lying.So if any region is spent its the West as they also have lost nearly all of their leaders (Tywin/Kevan)

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