Was some sort of Dance inevitable?

[Constantinople]

Let's handwave a bit here: assume that, for whatever reason, Rhaenyra's ascent to the Iron Throne isn't contested. For argument's sakes, let's have a plague in KL that kills off Viserys, Alicent, Aegon and Aemond, sparing Helaena, Daeron and the kids. They're all nonetheless too shellshocked to do much when Rhaenyra arrives and is coronated.

Now, assuming all goes to plan, Rhaenyra's will be followed by Jacaerys Velaryon and his kids, presumably by Rhaena. Daemon's fully Targaryen sons are out of the succession, as are Aegon's sons and Daeron, all dragonriding Targaryens.

Is it me, or is such a scenario ripe for civil war whatever happens? Aegon III was at least a male-line descendent of Balon, confirming the decision of the Great Council, and therefore the heir by Andal law: King Jacaerys, assuming he takes the throne around 140, won't have this ability to shut down the whisperings. I also suspect he'd have been the first king of the ruling Velaryon dynasty had he taken power: there's not much indication, after all, that Rhaenyra ever intended to name her sons Targaryen.

Thoughts?

[Fat Mac]

I think a Dance would ultimately have been inevitable, regardless the scenario. Too many Targs, too many Dragons in too small a space, too many people with delusions of grandeur and big ideas. The inbreeding doesn't help either.

But, as to your scenario, I don't think Rhaenyra's kids looking nothing like her or her Velaryon husband would have made for an easy succession. You might have a War of Five Kings scenario, since the makings are pretty similar (possible bastards looking nothing like the royal line being fought by family members).

Either way, I think the Dragons would have danced ;)

[The silver dragon]

yeah some kind of war was inevitable.

there were too many dragon riding branches of the family.

but i doubt it would be as bad as the real dance.

[Lord Varys]

There would always be wars of succession in this setting. Simply because overtime the royal family splits up in too many branches and all those princes and their children acquire too much power and wealth, especially during periods of long peace and prosperity.

Things were already bad back in 101 AC. Jaehaerys I calling the first Great Council only postponed the war for succession, it didn't resolve anything. Princess Rhaenys and Corlys Velaryon harbored their grudges, and they had dragons.

The Dance itself could have been prevented if Viserys I had taken steps to ensure Rhaenyra's succession. If she had been Hand in Otto's stead I doubt there would have been any trouble. Nobody had prepared Aegon to take the throne, after all, and with Rhaenyra already in control of the government and the Realm there wouldn't have been any chance to stage a coup. Alicent and her children would have been at court - in Rhaenyra's hands, effectively hostages against the Hightowers. And since it was Otto who staged the whole coup there is little chance the Lannisters or Baratheons would have rebelled against Queen Rhaenyra - after all, the woman would have controlled more dragons than any Targaryen king in history.

Aegon and Aemond come of as pretty passive and dependent on their elders (Otto, Alicent) in the beginning of the Dance, suggesting that they would never have acted without their guidance. It was Otto who, as Hand of the King, build up a clique of potential allies and co-conspirators for the coup, and continued to do so after Viserys' timely death (the whole letter writing thing). That would all not have happened.

Not to mention that Rhaenyra would have been ideally placed as Queen on the Iron Throne to marshal her own armies and dragons against anyone trying to prepare for a war - Caraxes, Meleys, and Syrax would have made short work out of Oldtown if push came to shove.

Depending on how long Rhaenyra had reigned in this scenario Jace may have more or less difficulties to succeed. If his children had been intermarried with Aegon and Helaena's offspring (or the descendants of Aemond or Daeron) a war for succession could have been avoided. If not, things may have become more difficult. However, if Rhaenyra had ruled for, say, 40-50 years Jace's position as her heir would have been completely secure and no one would have challenged his ascension.