Theory - Littlefinger Plot Part 1 - More Choas in the North

[Tamsco]

Hi all - first time posting but like to read a lot of theories. Past few weeks I've been thinking a lot about Littlefinger - his next moves and ultmate endgame - and have developed a 5-part plan for him (including a new endgame I haven't heard). This is part 1. If I get interest I will post the others. Otherwise I will shut up and go away :)

Assumptions: I will assume the books will follow the HBO series in three ways:

1) The Boltons win the Battle of Winterfell,

2) Line of Baratheon destroyed, and

3) Littlefinger makes a deal with Cersei for Warden of the North (he'll say they have Arya, referring to fake Arya).

Rationale for assumptions: Ultimately if LF is a big player, then the books and series can't diverge too much. In fact if there is a lot of LF story left to tell, it makes sense that the show would need to start early. This is why I think LF is the only storyline that has gone ahead of the books significantly.

Objective: Gain real power over both the North and the Riverlands. As we know LF has the Vale in his pocket via Sweet Robin. He also has theoretical claims on the North via Sansa and the Riverlands via his lordship of Harrenhal (again not very good because he has no real force there). I beleive he needs to gain real authority of these regions to enable the rest of his plan.

Overview of Plan: Incite conflict between the Boltons and Freys. The why here is easy. Boltons are the power in the North. Freys have the strongest remaining army in the Riverlands. If these two houses engage in a destructive conflict, it creates a power vacuum LF can fill. How is a little more diffcicult. Boltons are focused on establishing rule over the North. Freys seem content staying out of things post Red Wedding. Moreover both Roose Bolton and Walder Frey are shrewd and level headed players of the game. However their heirs aren't. Ramsey's a pyscho and Walder's offspring are well.... This is why Roose and/or Walder needs to die in a way that implicates the others. From that point, the only difficulty is getting them in the same room together. Many ways it could play out, but let me detail one possible way it could

One possible way to start a Frey/Bolton conflict

• After the battle of Winterfell Roose wants to destroy House Manderly for conspiring with Stannis and send a message to other Northern Lords.
  
• Littlefinger convinces him it'd be more effective if he shows he has southern allies and support from the KIng, then hints the knights of the Vale could be helpful.
  
• Littlefinger proposes that Roose go to the Twins and gain Walder Frey as an ally promising one of his sons White Harbor if he sends his forces to join the Bolton/Vale attack AND bends the kneee to LF as leige lord of the Riverlands. (Afterall neither Roose nor LF have a second son to inherit white Harbor if they take it)
  
  • Walder gets another castle and lordship for one of his other sons. Besides, he also gets revenge for the suspect pies served at White Harbor
    
  • Boltons gets House Manderly destroyed, sends a strong message to Northern Lords, and gains loyal northern bannermen in the Freys
    
  • Littlefinger gets loyalty of Freys in Riverlands,
    
  
  
• One or two days after arriving at the Twins, Roose dies. In parallel a message is sent to Ramsey, allegedly from Roose but forged by LF's people, that they Freys have found Rickon Stark and plan to marry him to one of Walder's daughters then lead a Northern revolt against the Boltons. Afterall one of Walder's daughters / granddaughters married to the lord of Winterfell were in the original terms of his agreement with Catelyn.
  
• Newly annointed Ramsey will feel the need to show strength. His father is dead. He beleives the Freys will attack him and have Rockon. He is concerned about Northern ords percieving weakness.
  
• Result Ramsey initiaites conflict with the Freys. Moreover given how cunning he is, he could do something smarter than try to seige the Twins and
  

Comments? Is this exlicitly contradicted in test? Any major holes in the theory? Looking for feedback here to decide whether to post more or not.

[Vee Stark]

Hi welcome!! You have to talk about the show in the show forum.Book discussions only.

[Ahai Ahoy]

He is talking about the books.

[Paxter Redwyne]

LF cannot rule both riverlands and north at the same time

[Tamsco]

Not directly - he would probably put Sansa or Rickon (if he could find him) in the North.

[Lady Blackmont]

Sorry, the show is full of shit.

I wouldn't be surprised if Ramsay is killed in the BoI, and D&D kept him alive because they have a fetish.

Do not make any meta assumptions, not with the farce of a season we just experienced.

Edit: Walder is not a level headed player, he pays way too much attention to slights. It cost Cersei her regency.

[Municipal Engines]

It's weird how despite everything that happens in the books, with all the schemes and designs of the Iron Throne and desire for chaos, nobody actually tries to make sure the North is properly weakened. It happens, but it happens by accident. It's likely that people like Varys and Littlefinger subscribe to the popular Westerosi stereotype that the North is just a frozen wasteland full of savages.

[anonnyscouse]

Cersei knows it's Jeyne not Arya that the Boltons have. The show's plot of Petyr plotting to attack Winterfell in the name of the crown won't translate into the books in any form.

[BalerionTheCat]

I don't think the Boltons will keep Winterfell after the battle.

I don't think anything from the show is relevant here.

The Boltons are cursed in the North, the Freys everywhere.

LF has a lot to do still in the Vale. He can expect to control the North with Sansa. But he will lose everything if he meddle with the Boltons and the Freys.

[AerionBrightflameII]

The first thing LF will be doing in WOW is dissecting the alliance the Lords of the Vale have against him, winning them over and isolating House Royce from the rest of the Vale Houses. If we assume he will eventually gain control in The Vale and leave Sansa to woo Harry the Arse, then i believe he will then use his position as Lord Paramount of the Trident to gain a grip on the Riverlands..

[falcotron]

You could argue that LF dealing with the Vale, although it hasn't happened yet, will end up the way it did on the show just because things have to converge.

But in that case, don't you also have to assume that everything else important will go much like the show? The show doesn't appear to have the Freys as Roose's key ally, or the Manderlys plotting against them. LF's story for Cersei seems to be that he can give her a better warden than Roose (presumably meaning Sansa as a weak and easy-to-control figurehead who everyone in the North will love), and that he and his Vale armies can accomplish that for her easily if she just gives her blessing. I can't see how that plot (with fArya substituted for Sansa) can work in the books. (The situation in the Riverlands is also very different on the show--no Jaime peace mission, not UnCat-led BwB, and no evidence that the Freys are a serious threat to LF or the Crown. But let's stick to the North, where the story is already unfolding, so there's a lot more to go on.)

So, what you're suggesting does definitely seem like a reasonable plan, but it doesn't seem like it's what's going to happen on the show. So, I don't think you can use the "books must converge with the show" argument very effectively here.

[Tamsco]

Cersei knows it's Jeyne not Arya that the Boltons have. The show's plot of Petyr plotting to attack Winterfell in the name of the crown won't translate into the books in any form.

Wait Cersei knows about fake Arya? I must have missed that part ..... that kills the theory

[Lord Wraith]

Sorry, the show is full of shit.

I wouldn't be surprised if Ramsay is killed in the BoI, and D&D kept him alive because they have a fetish.

Do not make any meta assumptions, not with the farce of a season we just experienced.

Edit: Walder is not a level headed player, he pays way too much attention to slights. It cost Cersei her regency.

:agree:

Wait Cersei knows about fake Arya? I must have missed that part ..... that kills the theory

Yup not a bad theory though. I feel the Boltons and the Frey's will be at each others throats soon enough, or at least Ramsay's. I'd like to hear the rest of the theory. Littlefinger's end game is something I am really looking forward to.

[Dejection]

Sorry, the show is full of shit.

I wouldn't be surprised if Ramsay is killed in the BoI, and D&D kept him alive because they have a fetish.

Do not make any meta assumptions, not with the farce of a season we just experienced.

Edit: Walder is not a level headed player, he pays way too much attention to slights. It cost Cersei her regency.

Agreed, the show is just horrible fanfiction written by a 14 year old Daenaerys fan

[Lord Wraith]

Agreed, the show is just horrible fanfiction written by a 14 year old Daenaerys fan

The show is going to end with Ramsay marrying Dany at this point. Stupid D&D. :bawl: :crying: :ack:

[Tamsco]

:agree:

Yup not a bad theory though. I feel the Boltons and the Frey's will be at each others throats soon enough, or at least Ramsay's. I'd like to hear the rest of the theory. Littlefinger's end game is something I am really looking forward to.

Hey First Spear. My theories are full of holes but it goes something like this:

1. Use Bolton v Frey to establish de facto control of the North and Riverlands

2. Use political manuevering to install a lord he can control in the Stormlands once House Baratheon is wiped out. - My guess is that the Tyrells will want to intervene here and LF will propose a lower house antagonistic to the Tyrells to take over Storms End so Cersei / Tommen will decree it. Not sure which house though

3. Ensure Cersei wins her trial by combat using Robert Strong, making the vctory controversial. Use the event to incite armed conflict in the South. Not 100% sure how the battle lines get drawn but maybe have Dorne and Highgarden march against Kings Landing but be repelled with support of the Sparrows who defend the trial as the word of the seven

4. Fleece the Iron Bank on two fronts

a. Convince the Iron Bank to fund an alternate campaign against the Crown after the Martells/Tyrells fail to put someone in power who will pay the debt

b. Find a way to get them funding the losing side of the battles in the East

5. Create a run on the iron bank - use the ensuing chaos to either detroy and replace the IB or take it over internally

At this point, he can control

[Tamsco]

:agree:

Yup not a bad theory though. I feel the Boltons and the Frey's will be at each others throats soon enough, or at least Ramsay's. I'd like to hear the rest of the theory. Littlefinger's end game is something I am really looking forward to.

Hey First Spear. My theories are full of holes but it goes something like this:

1. Use Bolton v Frey to establish de facto control of the North and Riverlands

2. Use political manuevering to install a lord he can control in the Stormlands once House Baratheon is wiped out. - My guess is that the Tyrells will want to intervene here and LF will propose a lower house antagonistic to the Tyrells to take over Storms End so Cersei / Tommen will decree it. Not sure which house though

3. Ensure Cersei wins her trial by combat using Robert Strong, making the vctory controversial. Use the event to incite armed conflict in the South. Not 100% sure how the battle lines get drawn but maybe have Dorne and Highgarden march against Kings Landing but be repelled with support of the Sparrows who defend the trial as the word of the seven

4. Fleece the Iron Bank on two fronts

a. Convince the Iron Bank to fund an alternate campaign against the Crown after the Martells/Tyrells fail to put someone in power who will pay the debt

b. Find a way to get them funding the losing side of the battles in the East

5. Create a run on the iron bank - use the ensuing chaos to either detroy and replace the IB or take it over internally

At this point, he can control the banking system and have puppets on he throne.

[Dejection]

The show is going to end with Ramsay marrying Dany at this point. Stupid D&D. :bawl: :crying: :ack:

After Ramsay beats the Others using his *wait for it* 20 GOOD MEN. While fighting shirtless btw. In the cold.