A Pink Letter Theory

[P(IMP)]

This thread looks at the role Mance Rayder had in the Pink Letter, and his ultimate motives, as well as the validity of the letter's claims. Bit long, but bear with me.

*NOTE*-I DO NOT BELIEVE MANCE WROTE THE PINK LETTER

First, as to the identity of the sender, we can narrow it down to Mance or Ramsay. Nobody else could have known about Mance, and the letter specifically mentions him and his "six whores".

Second, the letter makes two distinct claims, that he has captured Mance Rayder (Claim 1) et cetera, and that he has smashed Stannis's host (Claim 2). It also makes the two demands, "I want my bride back," and, "I want my Reek back".

Possibility 1: Mance wrote the Pink letter

Sub-Possibility 1 (SP1)- Both claims are true

This cannot be true as Mance could not have written the letter were he captured

Sub-Possibility 2 (SP1)- Claim 1 is true, Claim 2 is false

Also impossible, for the same reasons as SP1

Sub-Possibility 3 (SP3)- Claim 1 is false, Claim 2 is true

Possible, but unlikely. The letter's demands state that the bride is missing. If Mance wanted to fake his capture, he would not add the bride's escape, meaning his plan had been successful. Furthermore, the addition of Reek makes no sense unless the writer thinks Jon knows who Reek is, which Mance would not think.

Sub-Possibility 4 (SP4)- Both claims are false

Possible, but unlikely. The same reasons as SP3 apply

Conclusion- Mance did not write the Pink Letter, but he did play a part in it.

Repeated: Second, the letter makes two distinct claims, that he has captured Mance Rayder (Claim 1) et cetera, and that he has smashed Stannis's host (Claim 2). It also makes the two demands, "I want my bride back," and, "I want my Reek back".

Possibility 2: Ramsay wrote the Pink letter

Sub-Possibility 1 (SP1)- Both claims are false

Impossible. Ramsay would have to know of Mance, which he does not in this scenario

Sub-Possibility 2 (SP2)- Claim 1 is false, Claim 2 is true

Again, impossible, for the same reasons as SP2

Sub-Possibility 3 (SP3)- Claim 1 is true, Claim 2 is false

Possible, but unlikely. In this scenario, Ramsay has interrogated Mance and takes his word as to the location of his Bride and Reek (with Jon Snow at the Wall). Then with enemies inside and outside Winterfell, he gives Jon a challenge that could bring a force of Wildlings and Crows screaming down on Winterfell. Even with Ramsay's enormous pride, I don't see him going this far.

Sub-Possibility 4 (SP4)- Both claims are true

This possibility is the most likely for several reasons. The claims are both possible, and the demands fit in with this scenario. If Stannis sent Theon (Being of King's Blood) to the wall along with Ramsay's Bride, this would account for Ramsay not finding them, and his taking the word of Mance as to their location.

Conclusion; Ramsay wrote the Letter after capturing Mance and "extracting" information.

Hypothesis: Mance, knowing full well the pain and suffering it would bring, let himself be captured.

Evidence 1) Mance has infiltrated WF before, and nobody was any the wiser. Already on this trip he was orchestrating killings while remaining aloof from suspicion. This makes it seem unlikely that he would intentionally be caught.

Evidence 2) Theon and Jeyne were right outside Wf, and in a very vulnerable position. By revealing himself, he would draw the attention around to himself and facilitate the escape of Theon and Jeyne. This serves the double benefit of severing the tie which Ramsay held some of the Northmen in his betrothal to "Arya".

Evidence 3) As stated earlier, Mance would not have included the demands for his Bride and his Reek (Mance knows Jon would not understand these demands), but Ramsay did, meaning he somehow thought that Theon and Jeyne were at the Wall, which we know they are not. It is a far reach to think that after Ramsay's forces beat Stannis's and he couldn't find his Bride or Reek, he immediately decided that they were at the Wall under Jon's protection. Unless he was told that's where they were. If Mance "let slip" that "The Red Witch" needed King's Blood and that Stannis would have sent Theon (and Jeyne) to the Wall while being tortured, Ramsay would likely take his word, thus explaining the demands in the Letter. Furthermore, why would Mance tell Ramsay a blatant lie as to the location of Ramsay's Bride and Reek, if not to provoke a confrontation between him and Jon Snow.

Evidence 4) Ramsay is a shit leader. It has been Mance's goal from the very beginning to get his people safely to the Southern side of the Wall. Which he accomplished to a degree. But it would be a real punch in the face to escape the Others only to find he has subjected to Free Folk to a cruel life under Ramsay Bolton. Mance would be looking for a better leader.

Evidence 5) Mance and Jon share similarities. Both are leaders who rule by inspiration, instead of fear. Both are "Bastards," outcasts of society who rose up to leadership. And both are willing to make the right choice over the honorable one. If Mance were looking for a leader, Jon.

Evidence 6) The Manpower is present for someone to overthrow Ramsay. If a Stark by blood were present, several houses like Manderly would likely join him. In addition, Mance knows the kind of people the Free Folk are, and that they would be willing to follow Jon to reclaim WF. With these combined forces, Jon could defeat Ramsay's forces.

Evidence 7) Jon would be a hero. Combined with his leadership, he would be able to protect the Wildlings and unite them with the Northmen. Then, together, they could make a stand against the White Walkers. Again, Mance has wanted this from the beginning, to protect his people from the Others, even if it means fighting them.

Evidence 8) Mance had a secret with Melisandre; he still does. Mel has seen Jon with King's shadow and seems concerned for his life. Not because she cares for him, but because she believes he has a role to play. Thus, allying herself with Mance, she helped set into motion the events to bring Jon to unite the North. All this before they must face the Others in the Battle she believes is coming.

Final Conclusion- Mance, persuaded by Mel, entered Winterfell and helped "Arya" escape, a blow to Ramsay's claim. Allowing himself to be caught, he convinced Ramsay, either before or after the Battle for the North where Bride and Reek were, and that Jon posed the largest threat to Ramsay's rule, knowing with his pride, Ramsay would challenge Jon. By doing this, he helps align the pieces necessary for Jon to take the North, and united with the Free Folk, repulse the White Walkers at the Wall.

Thanks to those who commented before and the helpful messages. A name change and format change were good ideas.

[Ser Joe the Unknighted]

Sample chapter spoiler

In the Theon sample chapter Stannis learns of the Karstark plan to double cross him. He imprisons the Karstark lords and intimidates the Karstark Maester into confessing everything. Stannis has proven to be able to manipulate the Maester. The Maester has been feeding information about the camp and Stannis to Roose and Winterfell. Roose has sent out an army to attack Stannis who he thinks is in an exposed position, desperate and starving. All Stannis has to do is A. Win the battle, which I am positive he will do. Look at the battle on the lake theories, Stannis will drop the Freys in the lake and either the Manderly host will turn on the Freys, or the Manderly host with the rest of the Manderlys will do something else (Manderly tells Davos he still has a lot of knights but only 300 men show up at Winterfell). And B. Have the Karstark Maester (in his own hand) write a letter to the Boltons saying that The Freys have won, Stannis is dead with his head on a pike, and his sword has been captured. Now with a bunch of Frey and Karstark Uniforms with no holes in them and "proof" of Stannis' death in the sword and a head (which we know is easily faked) the army will be let into the gates of Winterfell, trojan army. Stannis wins.

Why does he think Theon is at the Wall? Because A. the Karstark report of "victory" makes no mention of Theon or Jeyne and Mance or the spear wives confessed to planning to rescue Jeyne and bring her back to Mel and Jon at the wall.
He really has captured Mance, the spearwives or some combination.

So Ramsay isn't lying, he just thinks he is telling the truth. He is jumping the gun. IMO

[Lord Wraith]

In the Theon sample chapter Stannis learns of the Karstark plan to double cross him. He imprisons the Karstark lords and intimidates the Karstark Maester into confessing everything. Stannis has proven to be able to manipulate the Maester. The Maester has been feeding information about the camp and Stannis to Roose and Winterfell. Roose has sent out an army to attack Stannis who he thinks is in an exposed position, desperate and starving. All Stannis has to do is A. Win the battle, which I am positive he will do. Look at the battle on the lake theories, Stannis will drop the Freys in the lake and either the Manderly host will turn on the Freys, or the Manderly host with the rest of the Manderlys will do something else (Manderly tells Davos he still has a lot of knights but only 300 men show up at Winterfell). And B. Have the Karstark Maester (in his own hand) write a letter to the Boltons saying that The Freys have won, Stannis is dead with his head on a pike, and his sword has been captured. Now with a bunch of Frey and Karstark Uniforms with no holes in them and "proof" of Stannis' death in the sword and a head (which we know is easily faked) the army will be let into the gates of Winterfell, trojan army. Stannis wins.

Why does he think Theon is at the Wall? Because A. the Karstark report of "victory" makes no mention of Theon or Jeyne and Mance or the spear wives confessed to planning to rescue Jeyne and bring her back to Mel and Jon at the wall.

He really has captured Mance, the spearwives or some combination.

So Ramsay isn't lying, he just thinks he is telling the truth. He is jumping the gun.

Might want to put spoilers in since this is from the unpublished chapters and the mods are strict about that.