The Maesters have a Dragon(s)!

[Codename: Nymeria]

Okay, so to start, this is a tinfoil post, if the dragons in the title didn't tip you off. Nonetheless, it addresses something that's been bothering me for a long time, and I think I can make a logical case for it.

This all started with a post by Mitbert Strangejoy about the concept of maesters versus magic, which led me to thinking. Maesters are portrayed as the closest thing, at least, to scientists in Westeros. They devote their life to learning all sorts of different things, and Marwyn and others certainly have made it clear the Maesters consider dragons as a threat, which actually seems fairly obvious in retrospect. So, what's the best way to learn how to stop a dragon, should another Targaryen end up mounting one (or three) and invade again? To learn as much as can be learned about dragons. And what's the best way to do that? Why, by studying an actual dragon.

Now, this would obviously require some division within the Maesters; my theory would still leave people like Marwyn and Aemon without the knowledge that there are dragon(s) being held in the Citadel. In a sense, the strong anti-dragon line from the leading maesters could actually be a cover for dragon-learning activities (and yes, I have no real evidence to support that statement - it's tinfoil.) But the Citadel is pretty damn big, and I think there's probably room for a captive dragon-roost somewhere in there.

Now...where would the Maesters get a live dragon, you ask? Well, this is the thing that's been bothering me since I started delving in to ASOIAF.

The history of Westeros, if not Planetos, is replete with dragons and dragon-lore. There's dragonglass, and dragonsteel, and dragonblood, there are sigils...Westeros comes very close to worshiping dragons. And we know, especially for a fantasy series that does still have a limited range, a ton about these dragons. We know their riders, what colors their scales and flames were, and for the most part, we know what happened to them. It's that "for the most part" that bugs me. The Dance with Dragons ended in 131 AC; the "last dragon" is said to have died in 153 AC. From what I can tell, however, most of this information is gleamed from in-world sources that were written by Maesters ("The Dance of the Dragons, A True Telling" by Grand Maester Munkun, and Dragonkin, Being a History of House Targaryen from Exile to Apotheosis, with a Consideration of the Life and Death of Dragons by Maester Thomax). Further, the only know copy of Blood and Fire resides...in the Citadel.

This leads me to question the fates of the four dragons who seem to have survived the Dance. With everything we know about dragons, we should know this. But...

1) Silverwing - We know a lot Silverwing. First off, I'll address the "she'd be too old" argument in a minute. Throughout most of her life, we know tons about Silverwing: We don't know when she was born, but she was clearly sizable enough to be Queen Alysanne's mount, and we've even gotten a description of her actions after the Second Battle of Tumbleton (from the Princess and the Queen), although this is again attributed to Archmaester Gladyn. The last we know of her, she was roosting in the Reach (near the Red Lake), not so, so far from Oldtown and the Citadel. Hmm. Why don't we know what happened to Silverwing? As the last remaining full-sized, semi-domesticated dragon, she would of enormous value to anyone who could have claimed her after the Dance. Why would no Targaryen even try and ride her? I can believe a dragon avoiding human contact for a week, or a month, but eventually you're gonna notice the giant dragon eating livestock, or else the huge, rotting dragon skeleton. But we know nothing. We're like Jon Snow, without the stab wounds.

2) The Cannibal - The obvious argument against the Cannibal (whom the World of Ice and Fire simply states, "mysteriously vanished after the Dance") is that he would be too old, possibly older than Balerion. Here's the thing about that, though - Balerion is the only dragon we know of who has died of natural causes. We don't know when he was born, and we don't know if he was short or long-lived for his species. According to Dany is ASOS, he was about 200 years old, but who knows how much Dany really knows about it? As I've mentioned in another thread, perhaps Balerion had a dragonheart attack or a dragonstroke and died young. Vhagar was 186 in the Dance, and there was no indication she was getting old or sick. So all we really know about the Cannibal is that he "mysteriously disappeared." Hmmm.

3) Sheepstealer - There's already existing conspiracy theories about Sheepstealer surviving the Dance, and Nettles and Daemon escaping to freedom. The P & the Q also mentions the legend of Nettles and Sheepstealer flying off into nothingness...but Westeros doesn't really seem to be surrounded by nothingness. Seems to me, Sheepstealer was last seen flying off the East Coast of Westeros (near the Bay of Crabs), which would suggest she was heading East. You know what's east of Westeros? Essos. Now, I don't think Sheepstealer would necessarily be stuck in the Citadel, but it might shed some light on how Illyrio got his hands on dragon eggs; maybe Sheepstealer ended up in a populated area, and ultimately laid a clutch of eggs.

4) Morning - The one dragon about whom we know very little. Morning was born during the Dance. There isn't really a whole lot of mention of what happened to Morning, or even which sex it was, despite the fact that Rhaena apparently bonded with Morning at one point. Rhaena, of course, would have had every reason to hide her (presumably smallish, at least for a while) young dragon from "Aegon the Dragonbane". Then, after she divorced one of Aegon's regents, she married...Garmund Hightower. Hmmmm.

Now, consider the following quote from GRRM:

There are no more dragons known to exist... but this is a medieval period, and large parts of the world are still terra incognita, so there are always tales of dragon sightings in far off mysterious places. The maesters tend to discount those.

And then there's the issue of GRRM stating that not only Targaryens can ride dragons, which I know has been said based on other threads, but I am too tired to find the actual quote for right now. Nonetheless, I'm not aware of any actual dragon-rider that did not have Targaryen blood; the dragonseeds, to my understanding, were by definitely Targaryen bastards, even Nettles. So the dogged insistence that you don't have to be a Targ suggests to me that someone else in this story will eventually ride a dragon.

Now - here's the kicker to the whole thing: this would explain the Tragedy at Summerhall. Rather than hiring FM to do their dirty work, the Maesters found out Egg's plans to hatch dragon eggs, and rode their captive dragons to Summerhall (because non-Targs can learn to ride dragons), and burned the place to the ground. I've never been 100% clear on the geography of Rhaegar's birth vis a vis the Tragedy, but my understanding is that he was removed from the main event, and certainly no one survived Summerhall (other than GoHH) who can explain what happened. If the maesters actually did/do possess a dragon, it would essentially function as the ultimate trump card in any struggle, so the need to prevent new dragons from being born would be paramount; in a world where only they have a dragon, the maesters can control the political spectrum, and use the dragon as a failsafe to take control if things get out of hand. But if Egg had hatched new dragons, suddenly their ability to ultimately intercede is called into question.

Thoughts?

[Lady Blackmont]

This fits right in with my theories about the government using alien spacecraft to manipulate events.

*High Fives*

[VeryLittleGravitasIndeed]

Dragons, by virtue of being huge flying beasts larger than airplanes, tend to be rather hard to hide. There's no way the Maesters kept a secret this big for two centuries. Capturing and dissecting one shortly after the Dance: maybe. Secret dragon armada? Lol, nope.

[Ronfried_IV]

Dragons, by virtue of being huge flying beasts larger than airplanes, tend to be rather hard to hide. There's no way the Maesters kept a secret this big for two centuries. Capturing and dissecting one shortly after the Dance: maybe. Secret dragon armada? Lol, nope.

It is stated in the books that dragons grow better in freedom and the growth stops if they are chained and locked away, so it would probably not be impossible bu I don't like the theory either

[PhilHibbs]

I can't imagine a bunch of dragons could fly to Summerhall, burn it down, and fly back, without someone seeing them fly overhead. Unless the dragons were called "Lockheed", "SR-71", and "Blackbird".

[aryagonnakill#2]

GRRM has obviously said that not only Targs can ride dragons because there were 39 other dragon riding families in Valyria, but he has never said that people other than Valyrian dragon riding families can ride them.

We also do know when Drogon was born to a certain degree, because we know he was alive when the Targs fled Valyria to Dragonstone before the Doom, so he was a little over 200.

[Codename: Nymeria]

I can't imagine a bunch of dragons could fly to Summerhall, burn it down, and fly back, without someone seeing them fly overhead. Unless the dragons were called "Lockheed", "SR-71", and "Blackbird".

Because the Westerosi smallfolk possess radar capabilities? The dragon couldn't take off at night, fly over the Dornish border (which, to my understanding, is sparsely populated), do it's business and fly back? Just doesn't seem that far-fetched to me.

GRRM has obviously said that not only Targs can ride dragons because there were 39 other dragon riding families in Valyria, but he has never said that people other than Valyrian dragon riding families can ride them.

We also do know when Drogon was born to a certain degree, because we know he was alive when the Targs fled Valyria to Dragonstone before the Doom, so he was a little over 200.

Right, but where does it say that Balerion (I'm assuming that's the one you mean) was only a puppy-dragon when the Targs fled Valyria? For all we know, he was already hundreds of years old. Also, it doesn't seem like GRRM would go out of his way to mention you don't need Targ blood to ride a dragon if all he meant was that a bunch of extinct bloodlines could, as well.

[Lady Blackmont]

We know he was a hatchling because Vhagar.

[caravaggio]

It would be f'ing great if they had one or two stored away somewhere!

Maybe Sam is in for a big surprise when he goes searching around for books!

[aryagonnakill#2]

As Lady Blackmont noted, Vhagar was just about as large as Belarion when she died, so reasonably speaking Belarion could not have been much older.

[The Mother of The Others]

Dragonfarts are siesmic and you'd totally know one was in the complex from the way the floor was vibrating. The only thing that could cover that up would be massive amounts of sex sustained over the centuries in an undending baccanal to spite the forest people.

[Codename: Nymeria]

Dragonfarts are siesmic and you'd totally know one was in the complex from the way the floor was vibrating. The only thing that could cover that up would be massive amounts of sex sustained over the centuries in an undending baccanal to spite the forest peop

You may have just discovered Sallera's secret plan! Besides, would you really be that surprised if parts of the interior of the Citadel ended up resembling parts of "Eyes Wide Shut?"

[Daendrew]

Dragonfarts are siesmic and you'd totally know one was in the complex from the way the floor was vibrating. The only thing that could cover that up would be massive amounts of sex sustained over the centuries in an undending baccanal to spite the forest people.

Listen to your mother.

[BlackFyre > BlackFire]

Once again a topic where people start making absolute statements as if we KNOW everything. We do not know that much about dragons!! So Vhagar and Belerion were "about" the same size so they must be "about" the same age. Why? Drogon and Viserion are the exact same age and Drogon is clearly considerably bigger. We know why in their case, but there could literally be thousands of other reasons for why dragon's grow at different rates. To just dismiss something out of hand or act as though we have all the information we need is senseless.

Also, when someone who has been a member as long as The Mother of the Other's makes such a snide remark to a new member's post's it's pretty unsettling. If the older members or moderator's don't want new members then just don't accept requests.

I hate to sound like I'm whining, but over the last few weeks it's becoming increasingly clear that newer members are ridiculed and insulted when they attempt to contribute. And it's the long standing members who are the worst.

How about being accepting of new people who share a passion and want to join in the discussion? The constant snide attitudes and outright insulting behavior, as well as the "there's a hundred threads on that already", are just childish.

I read the rules of the forum's and I didn't see anything saying that you are required to comment on every thread. If you don't have anything to add then why make a comment like that.

I'm railing at the wind, because duh it's the internet! That's what the internet is, a bunch of assholes being jerks because they can.

Sorry but I was raised better.

This is the first forum I've ever joined (and I'm almost 40 with a degree with in Computer Science, I was there when this shit started) and this kind of behavior is exactly why I've always stayed away.

Rant over. Go ahead and mock away...

[Eddy of the Godswood]

Dragons won't grow as large if kept in a disclosed area. It's possible, but unlikely. Many say maesters tried to kill and make sure dragon eggs wouldn't hatch, only for the sake that they couldn't explain them and the magic behind them.

It sort of reminds me of atheistic scientists denying reasoning of that which they cannot see.

[HexMachina]

As Lady Blackmont noted, Vhagar was just about as large as Belarion when she died, so reasonably speaking Belarion could not have been much older.

Balerion was approximately 200 when he died of old age in 94 AC

[Codename: Nymeria]

Balerion was approximately 200 when he died of old age in 94 AC

...right, but as I noted in the OP, we don't really know whether Balerion's life span was typical for a dragon. There's no indication that Vhagar was reaching old age before she died, or was likely to die of old age anytime soon. Nobody knows/knew how old the Cannibal was, and some thought he was older than Balerion, per the World of Ice and Fire.

Also, I think clearly the most likely candidate here is Morning, who would not have been more than 10 or 15 years old when Rhaena Targaryen moved to Oldtown and we lose track of Morning. I still want an explanation for what happened to Silverwing and the Cannibal such that it's eluded the "known" in-universe knowledge for 150 years, but Morning is clearly the most likely possibility. And that's not even starting with the name, which clearly is rife with meaning in the ASOIAF world.

The driving point of this is that I am theorizing that the fates of these dragons as being similar to the words of House Dayne: giving it away early would be too big of a clue. GRRM (it seems to me) is extremely thorough and consistent in releasing and providing information about the world of Ice and Fire. I see the fact that three dragons (not including Sheepstealer for this purpose) just dropped out of known history in a 20-year span to be an inconsistency in the way the world is portrayed, but not an accidental one. As obsessed as the Westerosi are with dragons, it just doesn't seem consistent that they wouldn't know or care to record the fates of the few that survived the Dance.

Dragons won't grow as large if kept in a disclosed area. It's possible, but unlikely. Many say maesters tried to kill and make sure dragon eggs wouldn't hatch, only for the sake that they couldn't explain them and the magic behind them.

It sort of reminds me of atheistic scientists denying reasoning of that which they cannot see.

The hell? First off, the entire idea is more or less predicated on the maesters actually being scientific (learning about things they want to know, but don't, through direct observation and testing rather than theory), and second...the hell?

[Lord Varys]

Silverwing and the Cannibal are actually hiding both in closet.

The Cannibal may still be alive in some dormant/hibernating state on Dragonstone - after all, if he had died, somebody would have found the huge carcass, right? - but Silverwing and Morning are most likely dead. Morning would have died at court, either while Rhaena was still her rider, or after her death. It was certainly already dead by 153 AC when the last she-dragon died. There is little chance that Rhaena and Garmund resided at Oldtown after their marriage as it is out of the question that the Targaryens would have given the Hightowers direct access to a dragon.

Sheepstealer supposedly is dead, too, at least officially. He and the Cannibal may still live somewhere but certainly not in the Mountains of the Moon.

[Shierak Qiya]

...right, but as I noted in the OP, we don't really know whether Balerion's life span was typical for a dragon. There's no indication that Vhagar was reaching old age before she died, or was likely to die of old age anytime soon. Nobody knows/knew how old the Cannibal was, and some thought he was older than Balerion, per the World of Ice and Fire.

Also, I think clearly the most likely candidate here is Morning, who would not have been more than 10 or 15 years old when Rhaena Targaryen moved to Oldtown and we lose track of Morning. I still want an explanation for what happened to Silverwing and the Cannibal such that it's eluded the "known" in-universe knowledge for 150 years, but Morning is clearly the most likely possibility. And that's not even starting with the name, which clearly is rife with meaning in the ASOIAF world.

The driving point of this is that I am theorizing that the fates of these dragons as being similar to the words of House Dayne: giving it away early would be too big of a clue. GRRM (it seems to me) is extremely thorough and consistent in releasing and providing information about the world of Ice and Fire. I see the fact that three dragons (not including Sheepstealer for this purpose) just dropped out of known history in a 20-year span to be an inconsistency in the way the world is portrayed, but not an accidental one. As obsessed as the Westerosi are with dragons, it just doesn't seem consistent that they wouldn't know or care to record the fates of the few that survived the Dance.

The hell? First off, the entire idea is more or less predicated on the maesters actually being scientific (learning about things they want to know, but don't, through direct observation and testing rather than theory), and second...the hell?

I'm thinking it's just the way the scientific method works. You make a claim and then it's up to you to prove that it's true. For example, if you claim there's a god, then you have to prove that rather than asking the opposition to prove it's false. Form a hypotheses and see if you can reject the null hypotheses. Dragons can't be explained since they are unlike animals that the Maesters know. Their existence is an assault on the methodology that they are trying to create. The candle exercise was suppose to teach humility and make one admit that they don't know everything, but we know large egos exist in academia. Rather than admit what they don't know, they instead choose to sweep it aside. But not all of them are like. Marwyn is not like that. Qyburn is not like that. Aemon was not like that.

[Avlonnic]

     I have always found the lack of closure on the Westerosi dragons unsatisfying, and I am glad you initiated speculation around them in this thread.  The Hightowers, keepers of the Citadel, intermarried with the Targaryens so the door is open to one or more of them having the requisite blood needed (if Valyrian blood is a requirement for dragonbonding.)  I had forgotten that Silverwing's last known address was on Red Lake, home of House Crane, in the Reach.

 

     The stories mention other dragons - the Ice Dragons of the north and sea dragons.  Presumably, these are old sightings of free-range dragons and possibly one of the four mentioned.  We have seen far more caves in Westeros than were first evident in the story, and those could be places for dormant dragons - especially in the cooler areas (the cold preserves, after all.) 

 

     But we have seen several reports of dragons in Asshai (Bran's vision and sailors' tales)...and Dany's fledgling khalasar stumbled across a dragon's skeleton in the sands after Drogo's death so it is conceivable that the remaining dragon or dragons found a way to a remote area of Essos and that one or more are now active around Asshai.

 

     As for Summerhall, I like that you are considering other possibilities.  I believe treachery was involved and that any dragons participating were of the human variety, possibly abetted by a maester.  But that is just me.