Littlefinger in league with the Iron Bank?

[digger]

I've been looking all over the place for some theories that might explain the Iron Bank's actions, but I haven't been able to find any. Most people accept the narrative that they are more or less passive players who got stuck for a bunch of money and are now backing Stannis in hopes of getting some of their money back. This is completely ridiculous, unless you think that the Iron Bank are a bunch of idiots. Robert ruled over a long Summer with only one minor war a decade ago. Yet Robert manages to spend the crown into crushing debt by throwing a few too many tournaments. And the Iron Bank has been willing to extend more and more credit to this spendthrift king? No. If nothing else, the Iron Bank are good bankers. They would want to see the books before they put any more money in. No one else in King's Landing seems to care to see Littlefinger's books. But the emissaries from the Iron Bank would have to, or they get buried in the vaults back home.

 

So I've done some of my own theorizing. Everything snaps into place when you consider the possibility that Littlefinger has been working with the Iron Bank for over a decade. It explains so many things. Littlefinger's rise to power was based on making money appear out of nowhere. It wasn't from nowhere. He was being bankrolled. The Iron Bank hasn't been stupidly investing money on a deadbeat throne. They've been investing in a political agenda in Westeros, with a well financed spy network run by their big piece, Littlefinger, front and center.

 

What does their agenda look like? Some have suggested that they are primarily defensive, making sure that their powerful neighbor remains unstable. But Braavos is hardly in danger of being sacked, having such effecting natural and artificial defenses. I think that they are out for power and profit. But what shape does that take? Well, look at what they've done. Littlefinger made up a bunch of debt. Others have pointed out that even if you are very liberal with the amount of spending Robert could have demanded, it just doesn't add up to the amount of debt Littlefinger claims the crown has.

 

No one is following Littlefinger's books. So his personal finances and the crowns' are effectively one big black box. Where is the money coming from, and where is it going? The Lannisters and the Faith of the Seven have lent a bunch of money in, along with the Iron Bank, and increased taxation. The outputs are an investment in the financial and prostitution trades in King's Landing, a bunch of money blown on bribes and spies and cronies, and then a bunch of money left over. It's a Ponzi scheme and an embezzlement scheme rolled into one. A little bit of startup cash from the Iron Bank, and now Littlefinger is borrowing money the Lannisters and the Faith in the crown's name. Littlefinger blows town with a ship full of treasure before anyone figures it out. And he frames the Master of Coin on the way out of town, who will likely play a convenient patsy when someone finally does get around to asking where all the money went and how come Littlefinger owns most of the brothels in town.

 

The Lannisters clearly haven't been paying very close attention to the books, being happy to buy influence without thinking too carefully about what the money was being spent on. The Faith also seems happy to buy their influence and not ask questions. But the Iron Bank. Would they be dumb enough to invest all that money without due diligence? They wouldn't be the most successful bank in the world if they were. If they're not the architects of Littlefinger's plans, they are at least in on them.

 

So what has been the net effect of all this political intrigue and money floating around? Politically, Littlefinger has ruined just about everybody, leaving a power vacuum. He got the Lannisters and the Starks to fight each other, then he betrayed each of them in turn. It leaves the Tyrells in charge, but only nominally. And he has a good relationship with them. If things had gone otherwise, he might have sold out the Tyrells to the Lannisters. As long as whoever is in charge is weak.

 

He also created a culture of cronyism in King's Landing. This served his short term political interests while he was in town. But it's no way to run a kingdom. Now he's gone, but the culture is still there. The officials are used to being bribed. The goldcloaks are used to being paid. Hundreds of people all have their own little hustle going, and they don't want to see the gravy train stop just because the guy who's been riding herd over them for years is gone. Whoever takes over is going to have to either sink a bunch of money into maintaining the corrupt system, or put a whole lot of effort and still some money into scrapping the culture and starting over, creating a bunch of enemies in the process.

 

Meanwhile the deficit spending had a short term stimulative effect on the economy, at least in King's Landing, which leave the small folk with a generally favorable view of Robert's reign. The high taxes never rested well with the middle class or the nobles, but it's not like the Lannisters are cutting taxes now that the crown is broke. What we'll see is the economic downturn that goes with austerity, in the aftermath of a war, in autumn. People will not be happy with the crown.

 

What is the end game? Colonialism. The Iron Bank will install a puppet dictator, as they are already making moves to do. This government will keep taxes perpetually high to service a debt that is actually owed to the Lannisters. Most of the bank's money is probably in Littlefinger's ship. If the evidence of this is in Littlefinger's books, no one will think to look for it until after the throne has collapsed and the bank's puppet government has taken over.

 

Raw resources, in particular lumber and food, will flow out of Westeros to Braavos, without the Braavosi ever having to bother themselves with the messy business of actually running the kingdoms.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

The Iron Bank's actions are not hard to understand.  The current powers behind the IT have defaulted on their loans.  So they back the next most likely candidate, and a man known for being honest.  If Stannis wins the throne he will pay them back.  If he doesn't, they'll find someone else to back.

 

Now, helping out the Night's Watch is a bit trickier, but again they're dealing with a man who at least is thought to be the son of a man of honor.  If they also know about the Others, it is to the benefit of anyone involved with the Iron Bank to be on good terms with the Night's Watch as they are the last line of defense against the magic ice zombies.  If the only place in Westeros where you can get enough food is at the Wall, membership numbers are going to up fast in the coming winter.  Could be a win-win.  And since Stannis seems to understand that supporting the Watch is crucial, as king he might cover their debt as well.

 

Oh, and yes I think LF has a connection to them, but I think it's purely about profit.  I'm not sure that he has any actual power within the IB structure, or he probably wouldn't have had them backing Stannis or helping the NW.

[aryagonnakill#2]

^ I don't think the watches debt should be hard to repay from an in world view where things normalize next spring, Bravos has no wood and the watch is already supposed to be chopping down more trees than it currently is.

[Lord Wraith]

Interesting theory OP. I have often wondered if Littlefinger and the Iron Bank were working together.  Littlefinger had to learn all these monetary schemes from somewhere and the IB seems the obvious answer. The Braavosi prefer trade,intrigue, and diplomacy to war and it has served them quiet well. As it has served Littlefinger as Master of Coin.

 

Lots of people think LF wants to be king especially anyone who watches the show. I feel is working himself into a Kingmaker role and would much rather be the Hand of the King in order to be the power beyond the throne. I think the IB his helping him in this regard to ensure their investments pay off.

 

As a final note it seems Littlefinger has brought chaos and debt to everywhere but Dorne (maybe the Iron Isles) and that always struck me as odd.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

I think your premise is faulty. The Iron Bank would gladly keep lending money to Robert as long as the Iron Throne has consistent incomes, which it does because everyone in Westeros has to do fealty to the throne. And the whole point is that the debt belongs to the Iron Throne, so if the Iron Bank decides to prop up a new King, that King has to assume the debt as part of the bargain like Stannis did.

 

I do think LF is using the Iron Bank for his own plans however. The realm somehow is in massive debt and at the same time LF has replaced everyone who handles money with his own people, men of low birth loyal to LF. Later, when the Iron Bank starts calling in its debts all over Westeros, LF somehow has the money to pay off people's debts to form alliances in the Vale. The simple explanation is that LF has been stealing money and plunging the realm into debt on purpose for his own political gain.

[Ser Naufragus]

I think Varys has been then the one skimming. not that LF isn't but Varys has all these connections as well. Like he's the one that kills the Antler Men. There are more guards on the payroll than guards and Varys disguises himself as a gaelor. which would be ironic if the Iron Throne had been funding its own invasion. That could be what LF has on varys

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

I think Varys has been then the one skimming. not that LF isn't but Varys has all these connections as well. Like he's the one that kills the Antler Men. There are more guards on the payroll than guards and Varys disguises himself as a gaelor. which would be ironic if the Iron Throne had been funding its own invasion. That could be what LF has on varys

How would Varys be skimming if LF controls all the money?

[digger]

I don't buy the idea that the IB would put itself that far out there with nothing but reputation to ensure compliance and a vague plan of supporting an usurper if Westeros defaulted. Westeros is big and decently prosperous and has some of its own gold mines. Default is a risk, and backing an usurper is even riskier, even assuming that there is one handy to back. I don't see how they could put themselves that far out there. Not when the crown is acting so fishy - racking up debt during a long peaceful Summer. They're going to ask questions before they put too much money in. So they had to know something. And when you look at it, it makes more sense that they know a lot than that they know a little. And if they know a lot, it actually makes sense that Littlefinger is their piece and not vice versa.

 

Varys' spy network was based on mute children crawling through the walls. The children and whatever money he needed were provided by Ilyrio.

[John Suburbs]

I see LF using the IB more as a pawn rather than a partner. I suspect that probably half of the crown's debt to the IB is sitting in Littlefinger's account at the very same bank. This is irrelevant to the IB, of course, because from a simple bookkeeping perspective the money borrowed by the crown is completely different from the money deposited by Littlefinger.

 

So this is basically the sand pillar on which LF placed the realm: base the economy on borrowing and lending rather than producing and selling, then launch the realm into an expensive war that crushes economic activity and drives the government's debts to unsustainable levels. When the IB comes to collect, sit back and watch the fires burn.

 

There is no reason for LF to collude with the IB at all. It happens as a matter of course.

[aryagonnakill#2]

Just want to remind everyone that the show exaggerated the crowns debts to the Iron Bank, in the books its no more than a million dragons, max.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

I've been looking all over the place for some theories that might explain the Iron Bank's actions, but I haven't been able to find any. Most people accept the narrative that they are more or less passive players who got stuck for a bunch of money and are now backing Stannis in hopes of getting some of their money back. This is completely ridiculous, unless you think that the Iron Bank are a bunch of idiots.

 

You do know that countries with consistently growing national debt are a common sight? They keep getting deeper and deeper in debt, yet banks are still willing to lend them money. And "getting your money back" isn't, actually, the goal of the game. "Have the debtor constantly pay interest, year after year, decade after decade, for generations" is a much better deal. And, until Cersei, the Iron Throne kept paying, so the business was good. Under new management it'll hopefully be good again.

[ivosan]

Apparently theories involving the IB are as not fascinating as those with FM, the Citadel or religions in it.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

Also, the IB clearly didn't loan infinite money, as the crown also owed a lot of money to the Faith and to Tywin.

[Ironborn Hero]

Just want to remind everyone that the show exaggerated the crowns debts to the Iron Bank, in the books its no more than a million dragons, max.

 

True that. Biggest creditor to the IT is Casterly Rock.

 

As of AGoT, the Crown owes 6 million of dragons. Half of it to the Lannisters, and the rest to the Tyrells, Iron Bank and the Faith. The Iron Bank got more credit in Westeros because of Tywin and Stannis loans, but not direct loans to the IB.

[B-rad]

Personally I've thought LF has been working with the bank for a long time,they already have a ton of connections such as the fact that LF is a quarter Bravoosi and the fact at they've been doing business together for years, their endgame? Getting Baelish on the throne. And I think I have some more evidence. I think the bank sent the sellwords for Stannis so they keep tabs on him and Baelish told them too. Why? He's the only king who survived the war of the five kings and he's the rightful king. The fact that he's lasted this long is huge. At first I thought what would happen is the sellswords hired by the bank would help Stannis take the North then move on to the Riverlands and like the show was saying LF would use his forces to battle the victor of the battle of Winterfell and it would be Stannis. Then what would happen is the bank would order the sellswords to turn on Stannis and LF would crush him and they would then unite and take over the seven kingdoms. Then the season 5 finale came along with Stannis losing. At first I thought this debunked my theory but then I began thinking and came to the conclusion that it did the opposite. Think about it what sellsword group would abandon their employer right before battle? Their sellswords they have a reputation to uphold plus they probably would've won against the Boltons so why would they abandon Stannis? Because the bank told them to. Now LF has control of the North thanks to his alliance with the Boltons. But now your thinking how is this going to happen in the books? Well it's not I think Stannis is going to win the battle of Winterfell in the books but then leaves the question why would ey have him lose in the show and I think I've come with a simple solution for that too. Popularity. I stated watching the show long before reading the books and when I was first introduced to Stannis I hated him I thought how could that guy be a Baratheon? And I simply think that the show chose the Boltons over Stannis simply out of popularity. This doesn't mean they may not have a bigger role to come in the books but that doesn't mean they need to win the battle of Winterfell for that to come. So to sum up yes I think LF and the bank are working together, I think Stannis is going to win the battle of Winterfell in the books to then be crushed by LF, and I think someone needs to stop LF at some point because he's pretty much taking over the world and practically no one knows about it.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Just want to remind everyone that the show exaggerated the crowns debts to the Iron Bank, in the books its no more than a million dragons, max.

Yes and in the books there is still gold in Casterly Rock, which in theory is now under Cersei's legal control, so not paying the IB back out of her own funds is beyond stupid.

[Lord Wraith]

Yes and in the books there is still gold in Casterly Rock, which in theory is now under Cersei's legal control, so not paying the IB back out of her own funds is beyond stupid.

 

Yes but this is Cersei we are talking about.

[Hippo]

I thought Tywin said the mines had ran dry for over a year or something similar to that (might be confusing show with book cant really remember)

[mdw4950]

its an interesting thought but i dont think i agree. robert might have racked up a ton of debt but he still had the lannisters backing him as well. if the IB started calling in some of their loans, that basically left tywin to bail them out or the IB to pull their funding. this puts the crown, and the lannisters, in a no-win situation. without the IBs money they cant run westeros right now. they would find a way to give the IB back something, with or without roberts complete approval. if anything, they probably figured they would simply wait til robert dies, its not like he was in good health before the boar/cersei killed him, and collect when joffrey took over. then if they werent paid back it would be time to take some drastic actions. iirc, there is a representative from the IB that shows up in kings landing during acok asking to talk about some of their loans.

 

wars cost a ton of money and for a new family taking over, robert had one rebellion that he crushed pretty damn quickly. without war the IB doesnt really have to worry too much about the crown being in dangerous levels of debt. again, they can be patient, westeros will always need a king and that king will always need their money. they couldnt have predicted what would follow and that basically the entire country would fall into war. this is where that dangerous level of debt started to come into play.

 

the IB started to get worried that war would literally tear the seven kingdoms apart and patience isnt an option anymore. i think they are genuine in their backing of stannis. hes by far their greatest chance of not just getting money back but also getting it back in the quickest time frame. them backing stannis is what goes against the IB being impartial. they dont know for a fact that tommen isnt legitimate and technically they are supporting a rebel taking the iron throne. they dont care if stannis isnt a popular king. they only care that hes the king who would pay them. this also stems from cersei telling the IB that they would only get their money after the rebellions were ended. 

 

if anything the IB might be very against LF rising in power. well have to wait and see what LF's next moves are but the IB might be slightly using him. they have to know that all the money he borrowed wasnt going directly to the crown. LF helping pay off some lords loans does help him gain support, but its also LF giving the IB back their own money with interest. they back stannis to get the crowns loans payed back and have LF giving them back money he embezzled in the form of other lords loans. could be completely wrong but i dont see the IB ever trusting LF.

[Victor227]

I thought Tywin said the mines had ran dry for over a year or something similar to that (might be confusing show with book cant really remember)

 

 

That's super-show-only.

 

Kevan contemplates paying back the Iron Bank with Lannister gold, and nothing about his thought suggests anything more than the basic hesitation of using his house's resources to pay off the Crown, as there is a distinction between the two.

 

It is pretty hilarious though that Cersei stresses about money so much when she's technically the richest person in Westeros by a ridiculous margin. She can forgive the Lannister debts, or hell, just borrow more Lannister money and use it to pay off the Crown's debts to the Tyrells/Faith/Iron Bank, not only benefiting her in that, but also putting the Crown in debt to herself in perpetuity.