Tywin's real motivation during RR

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

It seems to be commonly accepted (at least I thought for a while) that Tywin stayed out of RR until it was clear which side would win and that after the Trident (since it was clear that Robert was the winner) he went with the winning side and sacked KL and killed the Targ children to show that they were solidly on team Robert. I don't think this is what Tywin was thinking however. There are a couple of problems with this scenario:

 

1. Tywin could have fairly easily tipped the scales for either side at any point, seeing as how the War in the end boiled down to the Trident, and it is even indicated that the Freys may have been able to change the outcome of the Trident had they stayed faithful to their Darry marriage alliance and the Mad King instead of showing up late.

2. RR definitely should have failed except for the fact that the Maesters helped it succeed to bring down the Targs. Biggest evidence for this is Summerhall - Robert somehow immediately hears about the plans of loyalist lords to team up at Summerhall and gets there before them, allowing him to fight them one at a time, winning his famous 3 battles in a day. So unless Tywin knew the maesters' plan, he should have assumed RR would probably fail, and not coming to the aid of Aerys was, in that case, kind of a bad political move.

 

I think Tywin's actions in RR were entirely centered around getting Jaime back, his heir who had recently been taken from him by Aerys.

 

Ned Stark's van was rushing south from the Trident, and I feared it might come to swords between us. And it was in Aerys to murder Jaime, with no more cause than spite. That was the thing I feared most. That, and what Jaime himself might do.

 

So what he feared most was obviously Jaime dying. This means he clearly would never have joined the rebellion openly, as Aerys would have immediately executed Jaime. So what was his plan? I think Kevan gave us a hint when thinking about Jon Connington:

 

"Connington is too young, too bold, too eager for glory." The Battle of the Bells had proved the truth of that. Ser Kevan had expected that afterward Aerys would have no choice but to summon Tywin once more... but the Mad King had turned to the Lords Chelsted and Rossart instead, and paid for it with life and crown.

 

So I think Tywin would have preferred to actually fight for the Mad King, on the condition that Jaime be released from the Kingsguard. When that offer never came, Tywin waited until the Trident and sacked KL, knowing that Jaime was the only Kingsguard in KL and that only Jaime's own actions could endanger his life at that point.

 

This doesn't really affect the story or anything, but my perception for a long time was that Tywin just sat back until there was a clear winner and joined the winning team, but it was really all about Jaime.

[Lord Wraith]

If he was willing to go to war over Tyrion he would certainly do anything it took to get back Jaime. I agree on that point, however once his heir was safe he took his revenge on Aerys and King's Landing in general it would seem.  I certainly seem him prioritizing Jaime over most things.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

I agree. Had Aerys not been such a paranoid mess he could have quelled the Rebellion and even tempered Rhaegars ambition.

 

After Connington had been defeated he should have promised Viserys to Cersei and sent him to squire for Tywin, thus making Tywin more loyal to Aerys than Rhaegar.

[Chinoiserie]

I agree, Tywin's actions were motivated by Jaime. But I have been wondering what Tywin meant by fearing what Jaime might do. Did he mean doing something that could motivate Aerys to kill him? Trying to defend the Targ children after Tywin sent Lorch and the Mountain? Tywin could have ordered them not to fight Jaime under any cirmumstances but he could not have made the deaths look like something that just happened during the sack no longer I suppose. Or could Tywin had forseen that Jaime would kill Aerys? Could he really have guessed something like that? Or is there something else Tywin could have feared Jaine might do?
 

 

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

Ned Stark's van was rushing south from the Trident, and I feared it might come to swords between us. And it was in Aerys to murder Jaime, with no more cause than spite. That was the thing I feared most. That, and what Jaime himself might do.

 

(...)

 

This doesn't really affect the story or anything, but my perception for a long time was that Tywin just sat back until there was a clear winner and joined the winning team, but it was really all about Jaime.

 

The former is directly from Tywin himself, isn't it? The thing is, Tywin is a veritable Saruman with his tongue, he's in a habit of twisting and stretching and misrepresenting everything that's happened. Tysha was "a whore", Tywin "surely" could not be accused of ordering a rape, the Red Wedding was "a dozen people killed at a feast", etc. So, Jaime's safety might have been Tywin's motivation, and it might just be a big heap of bullshit, something he invoked to make himself look like the dutiful father.

[devilish]

It goes without saying that Tywin was furious with Aerys. He passed comments on Genna, he made his son Kingsguard and he refused to have Rhaegar marrying Cersei. That alone tested Tywin's patience to the limit. 

 

However Robert did very little to have Tywin join team rebellion. Robert opted for Lyanna when he could have asked for Cersei's hand. The Tullys had their children marry to an Arryn and a Stark and the Lannisters were largely kept out of the loop. Why would Tywin join the rebellion and risk his son's life in the process when he would get nothing out of it?

 

Honestly I believe that Robert's snub to Tywin was kind of stupid. Tywin had an organized and well trained army which would have helped him a great deal. Ok he couldn't marry Cersei himself at that point in time (he was promised to Lyanna). However he could have easily sealed a deal with Tywin who needed little convincing to turn against Aerys. If I was Robert I would have started with

 

- Edmure marrying Cersei

- Jamie is kicked out of the Kingsguard

- Jamie future son/daughter would marry Robert's first son/daughter

[Chaircat Meow]

No.

Tywin was driven by the need for revenge against Aerys. He hoped that once given command of the Targ war effort he could replace Aerys with Rhaegar, something he had worked for for a long time. After the Trident he was offered an alternative route to his vengeance by Jon Arryn. Jaime certainly featured in all his calculations but the need to save him from Aerys's clutches does not explain his actions. Arriving at KL with a lannister army does not really make it any more likely Jaime would survive; Ned and Robert would likely want Jaime taken prisoner rather than killed.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

No.

Tywin was driven by the need for revenge against Aerys. He hoped that once given command of the Targ war effort he could replace Aerys with Rhaegar, something he had worked for for a long time. After the Trident he was offered an alternative route to his vengeance by Jon Arryn. Jaime certainly featured in all his calculations but the need to save him from Aerys's clutches does not explain his actions. Arriving at KL with a lannister army does not really make it any more likely Jaime would survive; Ned and Robert would likely want Jaime taken prisoner rather than killed.

I'm not so sure. I think Ned might have killed Jaime and Aerys, if Jaime had tried to defend his King and Tywin had not showed up at KL. He definitely was angry at Aerys for all he had done, but I think Jaime surviving was much more important to him than revenge, and I can't see a course of action that would have made it more likely that Jaime would survive.

 

 

I agree, Tywin's actions were motivated by Jaime. But I have been wondering what Tywin meant by fearing what Jaime might do. Did he mean doing something that could motivate Aerys to kill him? Trying to defend the Targ children after Tywin sent Lorch and the Mountain? Tywin could have ordered them not to fight Jaime under any cirmumstances but he could not have made the deaths look like something that just happened during the sack no longer I suppose. Or could Tywin had forseen that Jaime would kill Aerys? Could he really have guessed something like that? Or is there something else Tywin could have feared Jaine might do?

I think he feared that Jaime would fight him for the sake of honor and that his own men would kill Jaime.

[spoon89]

It goes without saying that Tywin was furious with Aerys. He passed comments on Genna, he made his son Kingsguard and he refused to have Rhaegar marrying Cersei. That alone tested Tywin's patience to the limit. 

 

However Robert did very little to have Tywin join team rebellion. Robert opted for Lyanna when he could have asked for Cersei's hand. The Tullys had their children marry to an Arryn and a Stark and the Lannisters were largely kept out of the loop. Why would Tywin join the rebellion and risk his son's life in the process when he would get nothing out of it?

 

Honestly I believe that Robert's snub to Tywin was kind of stupid. Tywin had an organized and well trained army which would have helped him a great deal. Ok he couldn't marry Cersei himself at that point in time (he was promised to Lyanna). However he could have easily sealed a deal with Tywin who needed little convincing to turn against Aerys. If I was Robert I would have started with

 

- Edmure marrying Cersei

- Jamie is kicked out of the Kingsguard

- Jamie future son/daughter would marry Robert's first son/daughter

 

Tywin wanted little or nothing to do with Robert, there was bad blood between Tywin and Steffon Baratheon due to Aerys favoring Steffon over Tywin (his Hand).

 

The Lyanna match was announced prior to 281, as was the Catelyn match and the fostering of Ned and Robert in Vale. Ned and Lyanna talked about Robert and the rumors she had heard of his bastard daughter in the Vale (Mya was born in 279AC) so it stands to reason that Lyanna's betrothal was announced in 280AC. Cat's betrothal was announced in when she was twelve and she actually met Brandon when she was sixteen (since LF was twelve at the time of the duel) so that would be 276AC for the announcement and 280AC for the meeting. Robert went to foster at the Vale after his parents died in 278 (Robert and Stannis watched the ship sink). Ned was at the Vale some time before his arrival.

 

Jamie and Cersei talked in KL in 281 and she started the rumor that Jamie would make a good Kingsguard, which Aerys took and ran with because it effectively allowed him to steal Tywin's heir. Cersei was fifteen at the time and Edmure was likely around eight or nine, and it's likely that Tywin was still hoping for Elia to die and Rhaegar to marry Cersei. Remember that Tywin had been holding out for a match between Cersei and Rhaegar for at least five years if not ten. There was a potential match between Jamie and Lysa, but that got tossed out the window when Jamie was named to the Kingsguard. I think if Tywin ever found out that Cersei had been behind Jamie being named to the Kingsguard, he would have committed kinslaying.

 

Making and breaking betrothals is a serious business as we all know.

 

 

 

As a side note, Tywin waiting in CR, hearing of the Royalist defeat at the Ruby Ford and then going and sacking KL, is clearly a public relations job.

 

The distance between CR and KL is vastly larger than the distance from the Ruby Ford to KL, and Ned had a head start since he did not have a delay in learning of the victory. I find it far more likely that Tywin had moved his army down the gold road likely to a location near his east border or even beyond, and waited for the result to be known. This would give him two options: if the rebels lose he can quickly move north and attack into the Riverlands, cutting off any retreat westward by the rebels, and his other option a quick advance east to KL.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

 
Tywin wanted little or nothing to do with Robert, there was bad blood between Tywin and Steffon Baratheon due to Aerys favoring Steffon over Tywin (his Hand).
 
The Lyanna match was announced prior to 281, as was the Catelyn match and the fostering of Ned and Robert in Vale. Ned and Lyanna talked about Robert and the rumors she had heard of his bastard daughter in the Vale (Mya was born in 279AC) so it stands to reason that Lyanna's betrothal was announced in 280AC. Cat's betrothal was announced in when she was twelve and she actually met Brandon when she was sixteen (since LF was twelve at the time of the duel) so that would be 276AC for the announcement and 280AC for the meeting. Robert went to foster at the Vale after his parents died in 278 (Robert and Stannis watched the ship sink). Ned was at the Vale some time before his arrival.
 
Jamie and Cersei talked in KL in 281 and she started the rumor that Jamie would make a good Kingsguard, which Aerys took and ran with because it effectively allowed him to steal Tywin's heir. Cersei was fifteen at the time and Edmure was likely around eight or nine, and it's likely that Tywin was still hoping for Elia to die and Rhaegar to marry Cersei. Remember that Tywin had been holding out for a match between Cersei and Rhaegar for at least five years if not ten. There was a potential match between Jamie and Lysa, but that got tossed out the window when Jamie was named to the Kingsguard. I think if Tywin ever found out that Cersei had been behind Jamie being named to the Kingsguard, he would have committed kinslaying.
 
Making and breaking betrothals is a serious business as we all know.
 
 
 
As a side note, Tywin waiting in CR, hearing of the Royalist defeat at the Ruby Ford and then going and sacking KL, is clearly a public relations job.
 
The distance between CR and KL is vastly larger than the distance from the Ruby Ford to KL, and Ned had a head start since he did not have a delay in learning of the victory. I find it far more likely that Tywin had moved his army down the gold road likely to a location near his east border or even beyond, and waited for the result to be known. This would give him two options: if the rebels lose he can quickly move north and attack into the Riverlands, cutting off any retreat westward by the rebels, and his other option a quick advance east to KL.

A few things

Mya was born in 279 AC, yes, but in 281 AC, Robert and Lyanna had been 'long' betrothed. That doesn't mean the betrothal took place in 280 AC. 279 AC is still an option, after Mya's birth.

Nowhere is it stated that Brandon and Catelyn saw each other for the first time in 282 AC, shortly before the duel. Nor wad LF 12, btw. Brandon had gone to Riverrun where the date for the wedding was to be announced. As Brandon spoke to Ned about LF 'often, and with some heat', despite the duel having been only months before he died, I'd say Brandon had visited Riverrun before. He had been betrothed to Catelyn for five or six years, by the time of his death, after all.

Bad blood between Steffon and Tywin had not been stated. Tywin despised those who mocked or slighted or wronged him. Steffon has not been stated to have done such things.

Robert was not fostered only after Steffons death. When Steffon died, Robert had already turned sixteen, and he became Lord in his own right. He had been fostered by Jon Arryn as a young boy, together with Ned (who had gone to the Eyrie at the age of eight, in 271 AC most like, as he was born in early 263 AC). Both Robert and Ned did visit the Eyrie after their fostering ended, and we see that Robert visited the Eyrie on multiple occasions after his fathers death, and might even have lived primarily at the Eyrie both before and after, as he liked to visit Mya every day 'long after' he had lost interest in the mother. While a boy becomes a man grown at 16 (278 for Robert, 279 for Ned), there have been fosterings which lasted as long as the age of 18 (Quentyn Martell, for example).

[John Suburbs]

I don't think it would have been possible for Tywin to back the rebels any earlier than he did precisely because Jaime's life would have been forfeit if he did. I think the OP is right in that he probably thought that a rebel victory would be the best way to find a loop-hole around the whole Kingsguard-for-life rule: you normally wouldn't expect the man who just overthrew the king to then take his sworn shields as his own, even though this is exactly what Robert did with and Jaime and Selmy.

 

So Tywin was in a tough spot and played it the only way he could: wait until victory for one side or the other was certain, and even after the Trident, simply march to KL without declaring his loyalty, then he fakes loyalty to the crown when he gets there so he gets his men inside, and then launches the sack and takes over the RK as soon as possible so Aerys has no chance to seize and execute Jaime until help arrives.

 

I can't tell if the "something rash" that Tywin was afraid of was that Jaime would kill the MK or simply defend him to the death, but I imagine he would tell his knights, namely Westerling and Crakehall, to simply subdue Jaime at all costs and then slay the king. That way, Jaime would still have had his honor intact and Robert would have less motivation for keeping him in on in the kingsguard.

 

So I think Tywin's actions in RR were centered around Jaime, with the primary objective being to keep him from getting killed and the secondary objective to get him out of the KG.

[Frey Pie]

Tywin's motivations

Jaime's life
His families honour and name
his own pride and revenge on Aerys and people who slighted him
Replacing Aerys with Rhaegar
Replacing Aerys with Robert
Ingratiating himself with the new regime to get his kid on the throne

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

Tywin's motivations

Jaime's life
His families honour and name
his own pride and revenge on Aerys and people who slighted him
Replacing Aerys with Rhaegar
Replacing Aerys with Robert
Ingratiating himself with the new regime to get his kid on the throne

That's a good summary.

[Red Tiger]

Tywin's motivations

Jaime's life
His families honour and name
his own pride and revenge on Aerys and people who slighted him
Replacing Aerys with Rhaegar
Replacing Aerys with Robert
Ingratiating himself with the new regime to get his kid on the throne

See, what I love about this post is that it acknowledges that when a person does something big, it's usually because of many MANY reasons, not one particular thing.

[Frey Pie]

See, what I love about this post is that it acknowledges that when a person does something big, it's usually because of many MANY reasons, not one particular thing.

Especially in the case of Tywin because as much as I hate him he's a very complex and intriguing character

The one point I definatly disagree with is that Jon Arryn set him to killing the children

[Lost Melnibonean]

I've long been intrigued by this passage...

Ser Elys Westerling and Lord Crakehall and others of his father's knights burst into the hall in time to see the last of it, so there was no way for Jaime to vanish and let some braggart steal the praise or blame. It would be blame, he knew at once when he saw the way they looked at him . . . though perhaps that was fear. Lannister or no, he was one of Aerys's seven.

"The castle is ours, ser, and the city," Roland Crakehall told him, which was half true. Targaryen loyalists were still dying on the serpentine steps and in the armory, Gregor Clegane and Amory Lorch were scaling the walls of Maegor's Holdfast, and Ned Stark was leading his northmen through the King's Gate even then, but Crakehall could not have known that. He had not seemed surprised to find Aerys slain; Jaime had been Lord Tywin's son long before he had been named to the Kingsguard.

"Tell them the Mad King is dead," he commanded. "Spare all those who yield and hold them captive."

"Shall I proclaim a new king as well?" Crakehall asked, and Jaime read the question plain: Shall it be your father, or Robert Baratheon, or do you mean to try to make a new dragonking? He thought for a moment of the boy Viserys, fled to Dragonstone, and of Rhaegar's infant son Aegon, still in Maegor's with his mother. A new Targaryen king, and my father as Hand. How the wolves will howl, and the storm lord choke with rage. For a moment he was tempted, until he glanced down again at the body on the floor, in its spreading pool of blood. His blood is in both of them, he thought. "Proclaim who you bloody well like," he told Crakehall. Then he climbed the Iron Throne and seated himself with his sword across his knees, to see who would come to claim the kingdom. As it happened, it had been Eddard Stark.

Jaime II, Storm

Obviously, Jaime would not have known of Tywin's orders but neither did Crakehall and others among his bannermen. Is it possible that Tywin had the same idea as Jaime? Kill Aerys, crown Aegon, and install himself as regent and hand, or claim the regency and name Jon hand?

[CJ McLannister]

I think that he would have gladly joined the Targaryen cause if Rhaegar was king.  He had no intention of helping Aerys, but wouldn't join the rebellion as long as Jaime was in danger.  Once Rhaegar lost though, he had to choose.

[lancerman]

I think it was just as simple as it's explained. Tywin had no more love for Aery's, didn't care for the Rebellion, and had the means to make a great enough impact once the outcome became obvious that he could gain the fruits of one sides labors. The great irony being that he and his son actually saved King's Landing from Aery's and his wildfire.

[CJ McLannister]

If he had done nothing, I don't know that Robert would have punished him.  The Tyrells seem to have come out OK.  But I doubt Robert would take Cersei for a wife, and the Lannisters would not have gained so much power over the realm.  And everybody would have lived happily ever after.  Or at least until they were all killed by Others.

[VeryLittleGravitasIndeed]

If he had done nothing, I don't know that Robert would have punished him.  The Tyrells seem to have come out OK.  But I doubt Robert would take Cersei for a wife, and the Lannisters would not have gained so much power over the realm.  And everybody would have lived happily ever after.  Or at least until they were all killed by Others.

I'm pretty sure Tywin wouldn't have been happy. He wanted a royal marriage.