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What if Aerys had closed the gates to Tywin?


Brute of Bracken

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What do you think would have happened if, at the end of Robert's Rebellion, Aerys had listened to Varys and not opened the gates to Tywin? After all, it seems like a very logical thing to do. Why would Tywin Lannister, who shares a less than warm relationship with Aerys, suddenly chose to support him, after a decisive defeat at the Trident? I know that hindsight is 20/20 but isn't it quite clear that it is far more likely that he is trying to deceive Aerys?

 

So the question is, how would things have transpired if Aerys had closed the doors on Tywin? Tywin has four options - start a siege on Kings Landing, storm the walls, wait for Ned Stark's army to arrive and try to talk terms, or return to Casterly Rock. How do you think things will work out? What would be the future of the Lannisters?

 

I think whatever be the case, Kings Landing will fall and Aerys will die. I also think it is likely that Aerys still tries to burn Kings Landing, and presumably Jaime will try to stop him. 

 

I'm not sure what would happen to Tywin though. Will he still manage a wedding pact with Robert, even if he hasn't dramatically contributed to the war?

 

Edited to add: Also, would Aegon (real or not) be killed in this scenario? I assume Robert would still be King, so Aegon becomes a potential future rebel. Maybe he gets sent to the night's watch?

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Tywin would of had to retreat. laying siege and hoping Ned would make terms is a very large risk. Plus Ned was very close so I dont think Tywin would of even had time to make any preparations before Ned arrived. I don't think he gets the power he obtains when he kills the Targ children. Ned doesn't allow what happened to happen if he is there, he simply wont. I think unfortunately for Tywin Ned is the one guy he wouldn't want coming up behind him with a host.  

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I think Tywin would have had a good chance of besting the Northern forces for starters. Second Pycelle or another of Tywin's agents could have still opened the gates.  Depends how quickly Jaime stops Aerys from the wildfire plot. 

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Probably begin building the siegeworks and camp, send outriders to intercept Ned's outriders. Some terms will be discussed and Ned will join his army to Tywin's to besiege the city or alternatively march on the Tyrells to ensure they that they won't march on King's Landing whilst the city is under siege. 

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I think Tywin would have had a good chance of besting the Northern forces for starters. Second Pycelle or another of Tywin's agents could have still opened the gates.  Depends how quickly Jaime stops Aerys from the wildfire plot. 

Fighting Ned would probably have been Tywins biggest mistake. If tywin and Ned fight say tywin wins. He only had approx 12000 men, Ned was leading the vangaurd so if Tywin attacks Ned he still has to face Robert at this point. He would likely have to truly side with Aerys at this point. 

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Probably begin building the siegeworks and camp, send outriders to intercept Ned's outriders. Some terms will be discussed and Ned will join his army to Tywin's to besiege the city or alternatively march on the Tyrells to ensure they that they won't march on King's Landing whilst the city is under siege. 

 

And what would be those terms? Would Cersei still end up marrying Robert?

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And what would be those terms? Would Cersei still end up marrying Robert?

Thats hard to see. She is really the only one who is near his age that brings so much power, but I don't believe the lannisters gain as much if they marry without Tywin killing the children. Because its important to realize Ned does not let the Elia and her children be killed if he is in KL. 

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Tywin has three options - start a siege on Kings Landing, wait for Ned Stark's army to arrive and try to talk terms, or return to Casterly Rock. How do you think things will work out? What would be the future of the Lannisters?


He has four. He can try and storm the walls.
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He has four. He can try and storm the walls.

storming the walls with Ned right behind him seems like a rather silly move. Again, we dont know how Ned would react. I doubt Tywin allows Ned to come up with his vanguard unhindered in any way. Add tot hat there are several thousand loyalists storming the walls would be rather difficult. 

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If I were Tywin and the doors wouldn't open, I'd go home.

 

This way, House Lannister retains it's status as a "neutral house" and will gain neither punishment nor reward from Robert. It also means that Tywin doesn't risk his life or his 12 thousand men to storm a strong and fully fortified/garrisoned position when Tywin isn't certain about how Robert will react to the presence of House Lannister entering the war so late.

 

On the other hand, if Tywin goes home, then his full strength is intact and House Lannister can respond to whoever wins the war. If Aerys wins and demands to know why Tywin left, Tywin can point out that Aerys had closed the gates to him and therefore, he could not aid him. On the other hand, Tywin can tell a victorious Robert that he was going home to bring more forces in preparation for a siege.

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To be fair tywin somehow took half of the riverlands storming castles with very little losses maybe he has the ability to knock down walls with a horn or something.

Jaime defeated a Riverland host before Tywin marched though. Tywin was facing a disorganized riverlands. Storming a wall defended by thousands of soldiers while an army is coming up behind you is a completely different situation. 

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Jaime defeated a Riverland host before Tywin marched though. Tywin was facing a disorganized riverlands. Storming a wall defended by thousands of soldiers while an army is coming up behind you is a completely different situation. 


I mean the lesser riverlands castles pipers vances brackens and darrys all of these were captured even though with a few hundred men garrison assaulting will be a meat grinder for the attacker bleeding him with stupid losses.
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