*Spoilers* Highgarden & Aegon

[nyser1]

Should Aegon take Storm's End and the Dornish join him, what will the Tyrells do?

 

At the end of ADWD we see the last hopes of mending the Lannister-Tyrell alliance destroyed.  The aftermath of the trials could lead to a war between the two factions. It may also (or in lue of war) lead to political assassinations (Tommen? Mace?). Could you see the Tyrells joining Aegon?

[JonCon's Red Beard]

I'm sure the Tyrells will cling with teeth and nails to Tommen's position.

 

What has been a bit hinted is the fact that some of their bannermen might not be very happy with this and might desert them.

[nyser1]

I'm sure the Tyrells will cling with teeth and nails to Tommen's position.
 
What has been a bit hinted is the fact that some of their bannermen might not be very happy with this and might desert them.

Who do you think this would include?

What do you see if Tommen should die?

[BanzaiZ]

If Margaery goes down, the Lannisters are going to lose the Tyrell support. I don't know if they'll throw in with Aegon or if they'll wait for Dany, but Tommen's position is going to mean jack all if the Lannisters succeed in ruining/killing Margaery.

 

If they're smart, they're going to peace out and let King's Landing fall to Aegon while mobilizing all of their forces to deal with the Ironborn invasion. Deal with the threat on their home soil first and then pick a side between the Targs. 

[Valyrian Spoon]

I agree with JonCon's Red Beard. I believe that some of the 'Targaryan Sympathizers' that have been hinted at remaining in the Seven Kingdoms are amongst Tyrell  bannermen and are about to flock to Aegon.

[Slowpoke Martin]

The feat of taking Storms End alone will have houses flock to Aegon. Wandering knights and men at arms will also join up.

Aegon is conquering castles and has a reputable army behind him, this alone will have followers coming out of the wood works to join Aegon.

[aryagonnakill#2]

After Aegon and Jon Con Take Storms End Mace Tyrell will send Randyl Tarly with 30k men to attack them.  In the mean time Arianne will arrive at Storms End and Dorne will join Aegon.  That means a Dornish army leaving the Princes Pass able to head straight for Randyls castle.  I suspect Randyl turns his allegiance to Aegon along with Rowan and that the Dornish army in the Princes Pass attacks Highgarden after Garlan is defeated by Euron, or perhaps simultaneously.  After hearing that Oldtown is in danger of being overtaken by the Ironborn Aegon will march south and save the city defeating Euron.  He will be crowned in Oldtown and begin a slow march back to Kings Landing, the day he arrives and sits the Iron Throne Dany will land on Dragonstone.

[nyser1]

The feat of taking Storms End alone will have houses flock to Aegon. Wandering knights and men at arms will also join up.
Aegon is conquering castles and has a reputable army behind him, this alone will have followers coming out of the wood works to join Aegon.

How does this differ from Stannis when he had Storms End and Dragonstone simultaneously? In addition to his reputation as a commander. Did his fratricide and Red God ruined any chance of gaining Southron support?

[nyser1]

After Aegon and Jon Con Take Storms End Mace Tyrell will send Randyl Tarly with 30k men to attack them.  In the mean time Arianne will arrive at Storms End and Dorne will join Aegon.  That means a Dornish army leaving the Princes Pass able to head straight for Ranyls castle.  I suspect Randyl turns his allegiance to Aegon along with Rowan and that the Dornish army in the Princes Pass attacks Highgarden after Garlan is defeated by Euron, or perhaps simultaneously.  After hearing that Oldtown is in danger of being overtaken by the Ironborn Aegon will march south and save the city defeating Euron.  He will be crowned in Oldtown and begin a slow march back to Kings Landing, the day he arrives and sits the Iron Throne Dany will land on Dragonstone.

Why would Tarly just join Aegon and disobey hsi lliege lord?

Also a strong reliance on a Garlan-hightower failure. Would you see such a victory occurring before the return of the Redwyne fleet?

[aryagonnakill#2]

Randyls castle lies right inbetween the Princess pass where a Dornish army is and Highgarden, if the army marched there would be no way for Randyl to save his castle without siding with Aegon.  +  Friends in the Reach+ Mace Tyrell taking credit for everything Randyl has done in recent memory + The general weakness of the Tyrell Lannister alliance at the moment.

 

Picture this timeline, Redwyn fleet is burnt or lost at sea, Garlan is defeated trying to retake the shields, Highgarden is now vulnerable to the Dornish and Oldtown is vulnerable to the Ironborn, Margery Tyrell is under trial by the faith in KL, so is Cersei, the Riverlands are falling apart with Jaime Lannister missing and the prologue will have Jeyne in it, so that is likely an attack on their column, + Red wedding 2.0, their alliance is set to fall.  Jumping ship now will be good for Tarly, especially if he is offered overlordship of the Reach.  He is the only Reach lord who has been really fleshed out, we know he is brutal and will do whatever to further his ambitions, just like how he married his son to the heir of Maidenpool.

[nyser1]

Randyls castle lies right inbetween the Princess pass where a Dornish army is and Highgarden, if the army marched there would be no way for Randyl to save his castle without siding with Aegon.  +  Friends in the Reach+ Mace Tyrell taking credit for everything Randyl has done in recent memory + The general weakness of the Tyrell Lannister alliance at the moment.
 
Picture this timeline, Redwyn fleet is burnt or lost at sea, Garlan is defeated trying to retake the shields, Highgarden is now vulnerable to the Dornish and Oldtown is vulnerable to the Ironborn, Margery Tyrell is under trial by the faith in KL, so is Cersei, the Riverlands are falling apart with Jaime Lannister missing and the prologue will have Jeyne in it, so that is likely an attack on their column, + Red wedding 2.0, their alliance is set to fall.  Jumping ship now will be good for Tarly, especially if he is offered overlordship of the Reach.  He is the only Reach lord who has been really fleshed out, we know he is brutal and will do whatever to further his ambitions, just like how he married his son to the heir of Maidenpool.

Ah thank you for the explanation, it makes more sense.

What is the approximate size of Euron's forces still in Westeros? I personally see it as a bloodbath that Euron cannot win alone, but could do a lot of damage. Possible civil war in the capital, Aegon in the South, Euron off of Oldtown, and the risk of potential conflict with the Westerlands to the North of the Reach....even 80 to 100k men minimally touched by war would be tested to the max. If Loras dies....and possibly Marg? I cannot imagine Lord Oaf will maintain any composure.

What of Wilas?

[aryagonnakill#2]

Willas is by all accounts a competent guy, but Garlan is going to be the 1 leading the 10k men they have in the area and I think it has been foreshadowed that the Ironborn will ambush them on the open water when Garlan tries to retake the Shield Islands, and that Harlaw will kill Garlan with Nightfall, his VS blade.  The Ironborn have 500-700 longships still in Westeros, at 20 fighters per ship they match or outnumber the Tyrell host of 10k near High Garden.  I Believe if the entire Ironborn fleet comes down on them while they are trying to cross the water that the Tyrells will get slaughtered.

 

I then believe the remaining Ironborn will carry their longships over land and put them into the Honeywine.  We are told of how Harren had his men carry their ships to the Trident to ambush the Storm King when the Ironborn took over the Riverlands, and I think this will mirror that.  Oldtown has been making defenses, but they are facing the ocean, sailing down the Honeywine would get the Ironborn into the city by surprise, but I think Aegon shows up and saves the day, and that either Euron limps back to the Iron Isles where he will loose a new Kingsmoot that has been called because Theon was absent, or he will be killed via arrow to the eye by Sam or Alleras.

 

Edit: I think the Redwyn fleet gets burned.  It docks at Oldtown and Euron sends some flaming longships down the Honeywine into the harbor, we were shown that Oldtowns harbor has been blocked off by chain boom and sunken ships, so the fleet would be trapped and burned, then Euron can attack in the morning when the fire is out.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Should Aegon take Storm's End and the Dornish join him, what will the Tyrells do?
 
At the end of ADWD we see the last hopes of mending the Lannister-Tyrell alliance destroyed.  The aftermath of the trials could lead to a war between the two factions. It may also (or in lue of war) lead to political assassinations (Tommen? Mace?). Could you see the Tyrells joining Aegon?

Houses Tyrell and Lannister are going to be screwed. Houses Oakheat, Redwyne, Hightower, Fossaway, Hewitt, Tarly, Bulwer, Crane, Beesbury and Rowan will support Aegon.

[falcotron]

The one thing that stands out to me about the Reach is that we're told that the Tyrells have done a great job intermarrying with all of their vassals for the past 300 years, and we can see that on the family tree for the last few generations--if Leyton wanted to overthrow the Tyrells, he'd be replacing one of his grandchildren with another of his grandchildren, and what's the point of that? But there's one notable exception: House Tarly.

You could take that as just foreshadowing that Randyll Tarly will be the first one that jumps ship. But I think GRRM is leading to something more interesting. You have to wonder why Randyll seems to be Mace's most loyal and tireless bannerman, when he has no visible reason for it. Unless Randyll has a plan that's so long-term that even Doran would be in awe, there's something binding him and Mace that we don't know about yet.

That something could be dead simple: maybe Randyll doesn't actually want political power, only military power, and having a liege who likes spending time in the castles and letting Randyll take care of all the stuff in the field is a great arrangement for him. But maybe there's more to it.

[John Suburbs]

I predict intrigue and subterfuge. I think JonCon will offer Mace a deal: JC will let Mace "conquer" Storms End and then allow the GC to march undercover with Mace's army to rid the Reach of ironmen. Then Mace gets to return to KL as the conquering hero he's always imagined himself to be and once inside, JC and the GC will dispatch of any Lannisters still running around and declare Aegon as the new king with Margaery as queen.

 

Mace will pretty much have to make this deal or sit with his army at Storm's End while the ironmen loot and pillage the Reach, and if he doesn't then we'll see how many of his bannermen do in order to protect their homelands.

 

The three wildcards are: Arianne, and whether the Martell's will be slighted if she is not married to Aegon. But this won't be until the fighting is over, so it might not be that big of a deal;

 

and Garlen with his army of, what, 30k. If he can successfully protect the Reach on his own then there is no need for Mace to make a deal. But since this will likely be an unknown at the time the deal is proposed, it might not be a factor;

 

and Euron. I'm still not convinced that all the action in the Reach and Oldtown is not a feint and that the real attack is coming straight for KL, maybe with help from Aurane Waters?

[nyser1]

Houses Tyrell and Lannister are going to be screwed. Houses Oakheat, Redwyne, Hightower, Fossaway, Hewitt, Tarly, Bulwer, Crane, Beesbury and Rowan will support Aegon.

 

Do you think all of the Tyrell bannermen will abandon the Tyrells? Will the Tyrells be that opposed to allying with Aegon if Cersei goes nuts?

Willas is by all accounts a competent guy, but Garlan is going to be the 1 leading the 10k men they have in the area and I think it has been foreshadowed that the Ironborn will ambush them on the open water when Garlan tries to retake the Shield Islands, and that Harlaw will kill Garlan with Nightfall, his VS blade.  The Ironborn have 500-700 longships still in Westeros, at 20 fighters per ship they match or outnumber the Tyrell host of 10k near High Garden.  I Believe if the entire Ironborn fleet comes down on them while they are trying to cross the water that the Tyrells will get slaughtered.

 

I then believe the remaining Ironborn will carry their longships over land and put them into the Honeywine.  We are told of how Harren had his men carry their ships to the Trident to ambush the Storm King when the Ironborn took over the Riverlands, and I think this will mirror that.  Oldtown has been making defenses, but they are facing the ocean, sailing down the Honeywine would get the Ironborn into the city by surprise, but I think Aegon shows up and saves the day, and that either Euron limps back to the Iron Isles where he will loose a new Kingsmoot that has been called because Theon was absent, or he will be killed via arrow to the eye by Sam or Alleras.

 

Edit: I think the Redwyn fleet gets burned.  It docks at Oldtown and Euron sends some flaming longships down the Honeywine into the harbor, we were shown that Oldtowns harbor has been blocked off by chain boom and sunken ships, so the fleet would be trapped and burned, then Euron can attack in the morning when the fire is out.

 

Interesting. Garlan had yet to take Brightwater Keep as well right?

 

 

 

 

It will be an interesting turn of events if say:

 

1). Cersei survives her trial, Margarey does not.

2). The Tyrells go crazy and begin killing Lannister troops and Sparrows in the capital

3). Cersei takes Tommen into Maegor's Holdfast and brings up the bridge.

 

 

Then it would be interesting to see where the Tyrell allegiance lies.

[nyser1]

The one thing that stands out to me about the Reach is that we're told that the Tyrells have done a great job intermarrying with all of their vassals for the past 300 years, and we can see that on the family tree for the last few generations--if Leyton wanted to overthrow the Tyrells, he'd be replacing one of his grandchildren with another of his grandchildren, and what's the point of that? But there's one notable exception: House Tarly.

You could take that as just foreshadowing that Randyll Tarly will be the first one that jumps ship. But I think GRRM is leading to something more interesting. You have to wonder why Randyll seems to be Mace's most loyal and tireless bannerman, when he has no visible reason for it. Unless Randyll has a plan that's so long-term that even Doran would be in awe, there's something binding him and Mace that we don't know about yet.

That something could be dead simple: maybe Randyll doesn't actually want political power, only military power, and having a liege who likes spending time in the castles and letting Randyll take care of all the stuff in the field is a great arrangement for him. But maybe there's more to it.

 

Would the men with Tarly jump ship with him? I am sure that Tarly would not be the only competent lord or knight with his host of men (though I am sure the most competent). Horn Hill may have a decent amount of men, but he would need other bannermen to follow. I agree that it would be mindblowing if he has some master plan that goes beyond Doran or Varys's planning.

 

I predict intrigue and subterfuge. I think JonCon will offer Mace a deal: JC will let Mace "conquer" Storms End and then allow the GC to march undercover with Mace's army to rid the Reach of ironmen. Then Mace gets to return to KL as the conquering hero he's always imagined himself to be and once inside, JC and the GC will dispatch of any Lannisters still running around and declare Aegon as the new king with Margaery as queen.

 

Mace will pretty much have to make this deal or sit with his army at Storm's End while the ironmen loot and pillage the Reach, and if he doesn't then we'll see how many of his bannermen do in order to protect their homelands.

 

The three wildcards are: Arianne, and whether the Martell's will be slighted if she is not married to Aegon. But this won't be until the fighting is over, so it might not be that big of a deal;

 

and Garlen with his army of, what, 30k. If he can successfully protect the Reach on his own then there is no need for Mace to make a deal. But since this will likely be an unknown at the time the deal is proposed, it might not be a factor;

 

and Euron. I'm still not convinced that all the action in the Reach and Oldtown is not a feint and that the real attack is coming straight for KL, maybe with help from Aurane Waters?

 

Interesting, I would like to see JonCon play the game with such effective strategy.

 

I like the wild card points and understand them. My reactions:

 

1. Even if Arianne is slighted, might they follow Aegon because he is Elia's son?

2. It will be interesting to see how this pans out, but Garlan will have multiple enemies to deal with in his Western ventures (Euron, the Florents, possibly the Lannisters if hell breaks loose?).

3. Very interesting, do you think Aurane Waters would want to join him?

[falcotron]

Would the men with Tarly jump ship with him? I am sure that Tarly would not be the only competent lord or knight with his host of men (though I am sure the most competent). Horn Hill may have a decent amount of men, but he would need other bannermen to follow.

I think that, if Tarly jumped ship, the men with him might too. This is obviously speculative, but here's my thinking: It is more than a little unusual that Randyll isn't just leading his own men, but some of Mace's, and technically their duty if Randyll goes into rebellion is pretty clearly to stay with Mace. But it seems like he's been effectively leading a chunk of Mace's army since Robert's Rebellion. If so, then a combination of personal loyalty, his force of will, his presumably compelling arguments for why he's switching sides, and the fact that anyone who disagrees is suddenly surrounded by enemies could well be enough to convince the whole army to go where Randyll leads. And the fact that it's a situation that feels normal to the men involved but has little precedent in history makes it less likely that they'll stick with the rules, not more.

I agree that it would be mindblowing if he has some master plan that goes beyond Doran or Varys's planning.

Sure, but my point is that it seems unlikely. I don't think he's been playing loyal vassal for two decades as a gambit; I think he really is fiercely loyal, for some as-yet-unknown reason. Which means that, until we know that reason, it's very hard to guess what it would take to make him change his loyalty.

1. Even if Arianne is slighted, might they follow Aegon because he is Elia's son?

Remember that Arianne is not only the token, but also the ambassador, and the only messenger. If she doesn't send the order, Dorne doesn't march. If she feels slighted, Dorne isn't doing anything, at least not until after she returns home and she and Doran have a long argument.

2. It will be interesting to see how this pans out, but Garlan will have multiple enemies to deal with in his Western ventures (Euron, the Florents, possibly the Lannisters if hell breaks loose?).

The Florents are an interesting point. One obvious way to entice Randyll into switching sides is that if Aegon attaints both the Baratheon and Tyrell aligned members of House Florent as traitors, the only possible heir to the Florent title is Randyll's wife. (Of course I'm not sure what he'd do with a second title, since he's gone out of his way to make sure he only has one eligible heir instead of two...)

[md-shafty]

It would be a fun twist if it turned out Mace wasn't as clueless as some think. I always thought people like the queen of thorns with their I'm smarter than you attitude were only half as smart as they think. Same with little finger.

 

Perhaps Mace and Tarley have a plan beyond what everyone thinks. Plus Tarley seems loyal and a good soldier. What I love about George is his out of left field plot moves.

 

Would be great if everything plays up in Joncon and Aegons favor only for it to come to a giant disaster when Tarley kicks the shit out of them. Then Mace takes over the realm only for Dany to arrive with her nuclear payload.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

If Margaery is executed, the Tyrells will run to Aegon.  Whether or not he'll accept them is another question.  They've married Margaery to three males of the Baratheon name, and Loras is a member of the KG for Tommen and was a member during Joffrey's reign as well.  That doesn't exactly speak well of them, nor does supporting Renly against Joffrey (and by extension Tommen) and then switching sides.