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Maximum potential extent of the Valyrian Freehold?


DominusNovus

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Assume that the Doom never occurred.  How far could Valyria expand before it just could not maintain its rule?

 

They had the best military force on the planet, with vast flights of dragons at their command.  They also had real-time long-range communication through their glass candles (which have other capabilities, as well).  Not to mention whatever other magical capabilities they may or may not have had.  Further, they seem to have been pretty good at holding down what territories they held, with no major revolts that I can think of after they extinguished whatever foe they were conquering.  Their subject populations stayed quiet until the Doom, and the Free Cities seem to have been exceedingly loyal.

 

However, while dragons are powerful, they are not totally invincible.  Further, while the Valyrians had the overwhelming majority of dragons, they did not have an absolute monopoly on them.  Nor did they have a monopoly on various forms of magic, with the realms to their east having their own forms.  Further, Yi Ti seems to have been their equal, even without dragons.  Finally, they had one of the biggest handicaps any would-be world conquering civilization can have: by all accounts, they were an Imperial City State, with a fractious government.  The same political factors that faced Rome would likely have faced Valyria at some point, unless there is more information that we do not yet know about their government (if the outlying regions had any say in the overall government, for example).

 

Could they have conquered and held Westeros?  Dragonstone does seem to have been intended as a staging point for further conquest.  The land was certainly divided, and the Stormlands were losing their grip on the Riverlands around the time of the Doom.  As an aside, imagine how well-manned the Wall would be with the entirety of Valyria to draw from.

 

Could they have conquered and held Essos to the Bone Mountains?  There weren't any major powers between them and the mountains, and Qarth was yet to reach its current zenith.  The Dothraki would be little threat to aerial raids, even if they were united.

 

Could they have conquered and held the Summer Islands? (we'll ignore Sothoryos and the Basilisk Isles, there doesn't seem to be much need for further expansion there than the Valyrians already had)  The Summer Islanders were noted for having excellent bowmen, though would they be enough to present a risk to a dragon?

 

Could they have conquered and held beyond the Bone Mountains?  Yi Ti, Leng, and Asshai?

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A handful of maesters, influenced by fragments of the work of Septon Barth, hold that Valyria had used spells to tame the Fourteen Flames for thousands of years....

 

 

...that might have led to the assassinations of too many of the reputed mages who renewed and maintained the rituals that banked the fire of the Fourteen Flames.

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Those are not compelling citations. Those two quotes are far from definitive on their own.  'A handful of maesters' is not exactly established consensus, particularly when they are influenced by Septon Barth, who is repeatedly excoriated throughout the very book you're quoting.  And then, the second quote: 'might have led.'  Right there, the quote itself is acknowledging that its not certain.  And the fictional author who wrote that acknowledges that his sources are far from perfect.

 

But if we're going to cherry pick quotes, lets do it.

 

 

To this day, no one knows what caused the Doom.  Most say that it was a natural cataclysm - a catastrophic explosion caused by the eruption of all Fourteen Flames together.

 

It doesn't matter why it happened in the end.  The scenario I'm presenting is that it doesn't happen, so that we can have a discussion about the capabilities of the Freehold.  Hence the opening statement: "Assume that the Doom never occurred."

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They could easily have conquered the whole world.

Real time communication meant that reports could reach back to Valyria no matter how vast the realm becomes.

Yi Ti would have put up as much a fight as Ghis, perhaps even more of a fight, but they too could have been subjugated.

I could see Valyria becoming a Global Freehold. The only problem would be stability: the greater the realm becomes, the more likely a chance of civil war with all the horror it entails. It will only be a matter of time until the Lords Freeholder become so disorganized that one Dragonlord decides to perminantly seize power for himself.

But I could also see Valyria industrializing. They had magic, so once they learn to mesh it with technology slavery could become outmoded like Aristotle predicted.
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Those are not compelling citations. Those two quotes are far from definitive on their own.  'A handful of maesters' is not exactly established consensus, particularly when they are influenced by Septon Barth, who is repeatedly excoriated throughout the very book you're quoting.  And then, the second quote: 'might have led.'  Right there, the quote itself is acknowledging that its not certain.  And the fictional author who wrote that acknowledges that his sources are far from perfect.

 

But if we're going to cherry pick quotes, lets do it.

 

 

It doesn't matter why it happened in the end.  The scenario I'm presenting is that it doesn't happen, so that we can have a discussion about the capabilities of the Freehold.  Hence the opening statement: "Assume that the Doom never occurred."

 

"He killed the slave?" That did not sound right. "He should have killed the masters!"

"He would bring the gift to them as well . . . but that is a tale for another day, one best shared with no one."

 

The Faceless Men caused the Doom, this is as well supported as a theory can possibly be without being confirmed by an honest character in position of knowledge or by the author himself.

 

Your comment comes across as putting your fingers in your ears, the whole point of Barth is that almost everything he says is supposed to be true, despite the mainstream Maesters not believing it.

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The Faceless Men caused the Doom, this is as well supported as a theory can possibly be without being confirmed by an honest character in position of knowledge or by the author himself.
 
Your comment comes across as putting your fingers in your ears, the whole point of Barth is that almost everything he says is supposed to be true, despite the mainstream Maesters not believing it.


My comment is that, regardless of what the truth is (and, again, we don't know for sure, so acting as though any one idea is absolutely known is pointless), it doesn't matter to the conversation at hand.

We are setting aside the Doom and its cause, whatever it may be, and asking what challenges Valyria would face in conquering more.
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I feel the breaking point would have been the infight between Valyrian families.

Mantaining the dragon fleets, and ships and mens ready to defend your family from the other ones would have been the main brake to slow the commercial and military growth of the Valyrians.

 

Also, the lack of focus of the centralized efforts on conquest would have slowed them too.

 

But really, other than being on good terms with them, few things could have withstanded a concentrated, focused attack of all of the Freehold's resources, on a scale like the one that broke the Rhoynar's might on their river.

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1. Western Essos:

 

I think they'd certainly have been able to conquer everything up to the Bones.

 

With Western Essos (ie the Free Cities) secure (apart from Braavos, which the Freehold seems to have been on good terms with), and with the Ghiscari Empire, Andals, and Rhoynish subjugated, the next logical move would seem to be to conquer the Kingdom of Sarnor. They had already established a colony (Essaria) on the borders of Sarnor, with roads going to Saath and Sarnath. Sarnor would certainly have put up a huge fight, on the scale of the Ghiscari wars or the conquest of the Rhoyne, but it would have fallen in the end. The Dothraki were at this time not really extant, at they only came west from the Bones shortly after the Doom. Even so, horsemen won't stand up against dragonfire.

I can see the Valyrians coming to an understanding with the Ibbenese, whose foothold on Essos, while wealthy, was protected by deep forests, and Ib itself being a cold island. Also, the Valyrians may have been apprehensive about disturbing the Ifeqevron.

Lhazar would have fallen quickly, and Qarth was not yet a major power (although being surrounded by desert may have subdued the Valyrians interest in it anyway.

I'm sure that eventually the Freehold would have brought Braavos completely under its rule, through force or diplomacy.

 

2. Westeros:

 

The Valyrians controlled Dragonstone, Driftmark (the true westernmost point of the Freehold) and Claw Isle already. It was only a matter of time before they invaded Westeros. If you're wondering about whether they'd have been able to or not, remember that Aegon the Conquerer took the continent with only three dragons: imagine what would have happened if the power of the entire Freehold had been brought to bear. The five 'middle' kingdoms would have fallen very quickly. Dorne may have been able to defy the Freehold for a while, but the Valyrians would have had more dragons and better magic than Aegon did in the Dornish Wars.

The North may have been more difficult, because we don't know the effects of cold weather are on dragons. However, the Valyrians wouldn't have had to invade in Winter; summer would have been fine. The Northerners may have done a Dorne and resorted to guerilla warfare, but all the settlements would burn, and once Moat Cailin fell to the dragons the Valyrians could march right in (to say nothing of landing troops by sea). I think it is likely that the Stark lord, perhaps after a brief resistance, would realise the situation was hopeless and bend the knee, if only to save his people.

I imagine the Valyrians would halt at the Wall, the environment beyond obviously being too hostile to make an invasion feasible, and too poor to make one worthwhile.

 

3. The Summer Isles:

 

While I think the Freehold could, in theory, conquer the Summer Isles, the difficulties would be so great that it may not have been worth the bother. We don't know exactly how far a dragon can fly (presumably it varies dragon-to-dragon), but I doubt that any of them could have made the flight from Valyria to the Isles without ever touching down (without even factoring in adverse weather or the riders' fatigue). The dragons would have to be transported via ship, which would limit their numbers, and presumably none of the really big ones would have been able to travel at all.

Once landed, the Valyrians would have had to contend with the Summer Islanders' themselves, who would be ideally placed to wage a guerilla war from the jungle with their goldenheart bows, presenting a hazard for dragon and soldier alike. Any successful campaign would likely involve burning huge swathes of jungle, which would cause resentment and breeding grounds for rebellion.

 

4. Sothoryos:

 

Why would the Valyrians want to conquer Sothoryos? It is one of the most inhospitable and dangerous places in the Known World (I mean, it's up there with Stygai and King's Landing when your name's Stark). They already lost colonies there, so they know all about the perils of starting up there, and they know that it's huge and mostly unmapped (Jaenara Belaerys). I imagine they might try to take Zamettar if they had nothing else to do, but I doubt they'd put too much effort into it. They'd probably leave Sothoryos for the Brindled Men.

The Basilisk Isles are the same, only a bit more accessable. The Freehold might take them (I doubt it would be hard) if piracy was disrupting trade. They already have Gorgossos, so that proves that they were capable of taking the Basilisks.

They'd probably have left Naath alone, because of the Butterfly Fever.

 

5. Eastern Essos:

 

This is where it starts getting hard for the Valyrians. Presumably before they start on Eastern Essos they'll have consolidated their power elsewhere, and now they need fresh conquests. The problem is, the civilisations east of the Bones are all of considerable power, with one (Yi Ti) possibly being Valyria's equal. I'll list off the major civilisations:

  • The Patrimony of Hyrkoon: We don't know for sure when the Patrimony collapsed, but if in this alternate history it survived, then it probably was at least equivilent to the Ghiscari Empire in terms of power. Even the three surviving cities are extremely strong fortresses, guarded by forces of elite warriors, whose sole purpose is to guard the three roads through the Bones. Taking down these fortress-cities would be very difficult: you'd have to march your army up through the mountains, and dragons may not be able to fly high up where the air gets thin. The Freehold (which at this point encompasses all of western Essos and Westeros south of the Wall) could take the Bones, but not quickly, not easily, and not without great cost.
  • The Jogos Nhai: The Jogos Nhai would be incredibly difficult to conquer, as they have proved many times to the YiTish. Having dragons to scout and raze armies would be useful, but guerilla warfare would hamper the Valyrian armies. The last time the Jogos Nhai faced an overwhelming army, they banded together in a single force after their conventional guerilla tactics failed, and took out the enemy forces bit by bit after their enemy divided his forces. The Valyrians would presumably research the history of the region and not divide their force into too small sections. This, and the perpetual advantage of flight and flame, would probably ensure an eventual victory.
  • N'ghai: The depredations of the Jogos Nhai have reduced this kingdom from a once powerful state to a single city (Nefar) and it's hinterlands. I doubt that it would put up much of a fight, and may even aid Valyria against their common enemy, the Jogos Nhai. That said, we know less than Jon Snow about Nefar's military capabilities.
  • Yi Ti:  This is the big one. The Empire of Yi Ti is hugely powerful and, as we know from TWOIAF, possibly more so than Valyria itself. Certainly, this would be the Freehold's biggest challenge yet, trying to conquer a huge, advanced and powerful state so far from home. The necessary wars could take centuries. However, we must remember that Valyria has, in this alternate history, had perhaps centuries to consolidate it's empire in the West and increase it's own power. It is for this reason that I believe the Freehold would eventually win out over Yi Ti, although at great cost. Something we must also consider is Yi Ti's level of technological prowess: more specifically, whether it may have developed gunpowder. You may laugh, but Yi Ti is based on China, and China is where gunpowder originated. I'm pretty sure that even primative bombs and rockets (no, really: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gunpowder#History) would tilt the balance of power back in favour of Yi Ti. While there is no indication of gunpowder technology in TWOIAF, Yi Ti may well develop it in the centuries that follow as the Freehold expands. However, I do think that, for our purposes, we can assume that Valyria would be able to take Yi Ti (and of course, Valyria may develop gunpowder for itself).
  • Islands of the Jade Sea:  Leng, I think, wouldn't be that hard to conquer. Despite the possibility of guerilla warfare in the jungle, the island's history proves that it can be conquered, even without dragons. The main risk would be Leng rising in aid of Yi Ti, as it is in an ideal position to hary Valyrian ships. The same goes for Great and Lesser Moraq (which Valyria would probably conquer sooner). The other small island civilisations would probably not present a problem, and the dragons would probably thrive on Marahai, just as they do on Dragonstone.

The Valyrian Freehold, (especially when it encompasses Westeros, Sarnor, etc) would probably be capable of conquering the lands east of the Bones piece by piece. However, this changes if the civilisations united in the face of Valyrian aggression. It wouldn't even take all of them: imagine YiTish armies reinforcing the fortress-cities of the Bones, while Lengii and YiTish fleets blockade the Jade Gates and Cinammon Straits. With dragons unable to fly over the Bones, the situation would quickly reach a deadlock.

 

6. The Shadowlands and Asshai:

 

We know that dragons can live in the Shadowlands, but I doubt the dragonlords would even consider conquering them. The terrain is too treacherous, and the sorcery too damaging. They might try to take Asshai, but they would have to do so by ship. Also, they might have to do so without dragons, as animals always die quickly in Asshai, and we don't know if dragons are immune to this or not. The Valyrians would also have to contend with Asshai being the one centre of magic to rival Valyria itself. Nethertheless, they would probably try to take the city, as it is an important point of trade, and an essential stepping stone for journying further east.

 

7. Beyond YiTi:

 

Going further east from Yi Ti, your passage is blocked by natural obstacles (The Bleeding Sea, Cannibal Sands, Mountains of the Morn, etc), and unnatural ones: the Five Forts. Here I suspect the Freehold's expansion would end, as there is nothing beyond but the Land of the Shrykes (dangerous), K'Dath (dangerous), and finally the Grey Waste (unmapped, but certainly a vast desolate region). Moreover, the Five Forts must have been raised by a civilisation at least equivilent to Valyria, which might prompt caution on the dragonlords' part (I have a theory concerning this coming out soon, watch this space!).

From Nefar, the Valyrians might try to go to Mossovy, but that is 'a cold dark land', and the Freehold would have little motivation for expanding to there. Likewise for the Thousand Isles; bleak and desolate, populated by a people inimical to outsiders.

As for Ulthos, the Freehold may attempt to venture into that unknown continent, or continue past Asshai through the Saffron Straits. But, as we know nothing about what lies beyond Asshai, we can say nothing of whether the Valyrians would go in that direction, or if they would be successfull if they tried. With the sailing capabilities of the Summer Isles, I think it more likely that they would explore the Sunset Sea, or south of Sothoryos, instead.

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It also seems, when we hear of the vast millennia over which Valyria was conquering, that they actually weren't all that expansionist. The only place they *really* conquered was Ghis. The Free Cities were founded as colonies, usually pretty peacefully, and it was these colonies that instigated war with the Rhoynar.

There wasn't much expansion beyond that. When you consider all the advantages for expansion they had, and the fact that they had a few thousand years to do it (consider that Rome went from ruling central Italy loosely to ruling the Mediterranean in less than 300 years), and that they never bothered to conquer further east than the Ghiscari, and their western 'conquests' were all relatively close to the Rhoyne...

They were actually a pretty peaceful people, weren't they? They had such a leg up on their neighbors, but left many of them be.

There must have been some more magic than just what the Valyrians had, and something better than just the Rhoynar's water magic.

Or, you know, GRRM just going "Oh, lets give Romans dragons and magic radios and their Empire lasted for millennia instead of centuries."
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First of all, the Valyrians did in fact have a monopoly on dragons, not sure at all what you mean when you say they didn't.

 

Second of all, it has been made very clear that the fm assassinated the pyromancers holding back the Doom, and that they were hired by rival Valyrian families, and that whichever pyromancer was the final 1 assassinated, was paid for with the gold that bought Brightroar.

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From a military point of view, well dragons trump everything and the valyrians had a lot of dragons.

 

from an administrative point of view, there must be a reason why the valyrians only rarely expanded their empire, and no that reason was not them being so peaceful and kind towards everyone.

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Assume that the Doom never occurred.  How far could Valyria expand before it just could not maintain its rule?

 

They had the best military force on the planet, with vast flights of dragons at their command.  They also had real-time long-range communication through their glass candles (which have other capabilities, as well).  Not to mention whatever other magical capabilities they may or may not have had.  Further, they seem to have been pretty good at holding down what territories they held, with no major revolts that I can think of after they extinguished whatever foe they were conquering.  Their subject populations stayed quiet until the Doom, and the Free Cities seem to have been exceedingly loyal.

 

However, while dragons are powerful, they are not totally invincible.  Further, while the Valyrians had the overwhelming majority of dragons, they did not have an absolute monopoly on them.  Nor did they have a monopoly on various forms of magic, with the realms to their east having their own forms.  Further, Yi Ti seems to have been their equal, even without dragons.  Finally, they had one of the biggest handicaps any would-be world conquering civilization can have: by all accounts, they were an Imperial City State, with a fractious government.  The same political factors that faced Rome would likely have faced Valyria at some point, unless there is more information that we do not yet know about their government (if the outlying regions had any say in the overall government, for example).

 

Could they have conquered and held Westeros?  Dragonstone does seem to have been intended as a staging point for further conquest.  The land was certainly divided, and the Stormlands were losing their grip on the Riverlands around the time of the Doom.  As an aside, imagine how well-manned the Wall would be with the entirety of Valyria to draw from.

 

Could they have conquered and held Essos to the Bone Mountains?  There weren't any major powers between them and the mountains, and Qarth was yet to reach its current zenith.  The Dothraki would be little threat to aerial raids, even if they were united.

 

Could they have conquered and held the Summer Islands? (we'll ignore Sothoryos and the Basilisk Isles, there doesn't seem to be much need for further expansion there than the Valyrians already had)  The Summer Islanders were noted for having excellent bowmen, though would they be enough to present a risk to a dragon?

 

Could they have conquered and held beyond the Bone Mountains?  Yi Ti, Leng, and Asshai?

Imperial no its more of a republic than imperial.

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First of all, the Valyrians did in fact have a monopoly on dragons, not sure at all what you mean when you say they didn't.

 

Second of all, it has been made very clear that the fm assassinated the pyromancers holding back the Doom, and that they were hired by rival Valyrian families, and that whichever pyromancer was the final 1 assassinated, was paid for with the gold that bought Brightrkioar.

where has it been stated that the fm  killed the pyromancer by a rival family?

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yi ti and leng would have fallen the more populated the enemy was the more casualties the valyrian would inflict.

 

Now lets be real here the valyrians where the most powerful people in the world before the doom. Magic in blood and destruction and shadow they where the best.

 

Best weapons and lets not forget the could amass huge armys if they wanted they had most slaves.

 

And remember when rhoyne went to war with 300 k soldiers and water magicians. half of the valyrian dragon families went to war and burned there cities and there army to crisp Alond wih drying out mother rhoyne. they had the means and power to make whole kingdoms desolate and barren. yi ti and leng is no diffrence. neither is westeros at that time.

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First of all, the Valyrians did in fact have a monopoly on dragons, not sure at all what you mean when you say they didn't.

 

Second of all, it has been made very clear that the fm assassinated the pyromancers holding back the Doom, and that they were hired by rival Valyrian families, and that whichever pyromancer was the final 1 assassinated, was paid for with the gold that bought Brightroar.

 

- Its possible that dragons exist beyond Asshai.  We don't know for sure.

- Yi Ti is recorded to have had at least one dragon, under the rule of Chai Duq.

 

- As to the cause of the Doom, again, we have no definitive proof.  But, if you want to say that that version is the definitive version, then fine: Suppose the rival Valyrian families don't hire the faceless men to kill the pyromancers.  Done.  Get over it.

 

Imperial no its more of a republic than imperial.

 

I don't mean Imperial in the sense of having an Emperor.  I mean Imperial in the sense of having an Empire.  The Valyrians ruled over a vast, multi-ethnic domain, in which it seems that only the property holders of Valyria (either the city or the peninsula) had any actual say in government.  In other words the exact same scenario as faced the Roman Republic.  And, when you have a city-state government and all its features, with factions within that have all the resources of a vast empire beyond the city-state, then you have a recipe for instability.

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- Its possible that dragons exist beyond Asshai.  We don't know for sure.

- Yi Ti is recorded to have had at least one dragon, under the rule of Chai Duq.

 

- As to the cause of the Doom, again, we have no definitive proof.  But, if you want to say that that version is the definitive version, then fine: Suppose the rival Valyrian families don't hire the faceless men to kill the pyromancers.  Done.  Get over it.

 

 

I don't mean Imperial in the sense of having an Emperor.  I mean Imperial in the sense of having an Empire.  The Valyrians ruled over a vast, multi-ethnic domain, in which it seems that only the property holders of Valyria (either the city or the peninsula) had any actual say in government.  In other words the exact same scenario as faced the Roman Republic.  And, when you have a city-state government and all its features, with factions within that have all the resources of a vast empire beyond the city-state, then you have a recipe for instability.

than i understand. what u mean its the same thought i had about the subject

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Snip


Nice write up, and I agree with most of it.

The problem with Valyrian conquests is iirc, the dragonlords rarely left the Peninsula of Valyria itself. Coming out en mass to deal with the Rhoynar was a big deal. So, unless the dragonlords physically spread out across all the lands they've conquered, they'll never be able to keep it. Their armies alone would not be enough to keep places like Westeros or Yi Ti subdued for long. And that many dragonlords uprooting and moving to every which corner of the world could have devastating effects on their politics and societal structure.

So, while I think they could feasibly conquer most of the world we see, they'd never be able to keep all that land at once without spreading out and jeopardizing their lifestyles and politics.
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