Southron Ambitions and Lord Varys

[Texas Hold Em]

This is a scenario, similar to the one Timjames posted earlier.  Though the spirit is a little different and this is very much pro-Targ.

It is six months before the great tourney at Harrenhal.  Lord Whent sent out invitations to everybody who is anybody.  You are Lord Varys, the Master of Whisperers and you are the loyal servant of His Majesty, King Aerys II.  You have confirmed the following:

1. The Starks, Tullys, and the Baratheons are planning to unite their families and build a power block to rival the king .  A loyal house in the north secretly confirmed this to you.  Your spies confirmed this to you.  The codename for this plan is "Southron Ambitions".  The goal is to cut off the king's authority and give the conspirators freedom to do whatever they wanted, whenever they wanted.
2. You can rely on the majority of the lesser houses to support you.  The river lords will support you, but they are scared of what Hoster Tully might do.  Still, you can rely on Darry, Goodbrook, Martell, Tyrell, and the royal fleet.
3. King Aerys gave you the authority to make decisions and take actions on his behalf.  You now have more authority than the Hand of the King.  You have the following loyalists at your command:  Jon Connington, the Kingsguard, Lord Rossart and his young apprentice, Willem Darry, and Alliser Thorne.  They will follow your orders and die, if need be.
4. You have the resources of the royal treasure chest at your disposal.  You have the royal fleet at your disposal.  You have the city watch and the royal forces at your disposal.  You have allies in the east:  The Sealord of Braavos and the Archon of Tyrosh.  One very rich magister, Illyrio Mopatis.

How would you deal with the conspiracy (Southron Ambitions)?  Your task is to preserve Targaryen rule and stop the Starks, Tullys, Baratheons, and Jon Arryn.  What would you do, to protect your king and his family?  You speak with the authority of the king, nothing you do can be a crime. 

[purple-eyes]

Isn't it very easy that he can just make sure lyanna showed up in front of rhaegar who had a great thing in wild and headstrong woman then this southern ambition will just go away when rhaegar eloped with lyanna? 

Honestly, if Aerys and varys knew about this, they can simply marry viserys to lysa. 

Then promise rhaenys to Albert Arryn or his son if he already married. 

Problem solved. 

 

[RedShirt47]

The main problem with Varys being behind the HH conspiracy is that Varys had been working on Aerys for a long time and had worked him up perfectly into a state of paranoia. Varys could control Aerys (to an extent) and thus could prepare for his Blackfyre plot to take action when ready. With Rhaegar on the throne the kingdom would be more stable and Varys would have less control and influence, he might even lose his role (unless Rhaegar knew it was Varys putting Rhaegar on the throne).

Even if Varys told Aerys about the HH plot in order to sow discord between Aerys and Rhaegar then what was the point of it? Did he have a plan for putting someone on the Throne at that time? I doubt he could have put Illyrio on the throne.

Why would Varys want a war back then? I think he was playing a very long game and had Aerys where he wanted him...

[Curled Finger]

The main problem with Varys being behind the HH conspiracy is that Varys had been working on Aerys for a long time and had worked him up perfectly into a state of paranoia. Varys could control Aerys (to an extent) and thus could prepare for his Blackfyre plot to take action when ready. With Rhaegar on the throne the kingdom would be more stable and Varys would have less control and influence, he might even lose his role (unless Rhaegar knew it was Varys putting Rhaegar on the throne).

Even if Varys told Aerys about the HH plot in order to sow discord between Aerys and Rhaegar then what was the point of it? Did he have a plan for putting someone on the Throne at that time? I doubt he could have put Illyrio on the throne.

Why would Varys want a war back then? I think he was playing a very long game and had Aerys where he wanted him...

I always thought Rhaegar was behind the HH conspiracy, but you make a good point about Varys working Areys up in to a paranoid fit.   If Rhaegar was all that Selmy remembers and Aerys was a bad as Jamie recalls, why wouldn't Varys back Rhaegar?   He states repeatedly that his whole gig is for the good of the realm.   Could it be that Varys was behind the discord between Aerys and Rhaegar?   If Varys is a Blackfyre it's not unreasonable to line all those assumptions up.    Making Varys' goal not the good of the realm, but to install a Blackfyre on the throne.   My question is who was the Blackfyre who would have been king at the time of Robert's Rebellion?   I thought the male line was already extinct?   

[purple-eyes]

I always thought Rhaegar was behind the HH conspiracy, but you make a good point about Varys working Areys up in to a paranoid fit.   If Rhaegar was all that Selmy remembers and Aerys was a bad as Jamie recalls, why wouldn't Varys back Rhaegar?   He states repeatedly that his whole gig is for the good of the realm.   Could it be that Varys was behind the discord between Aerys and Rhaegar?   If Varys is a Blackfyre it's not unreasonable to line all those assumptions up.    Making Varys' goal not the good of the realm, but to install a Blackfyre on the throne.   My question is who was the Blackfyre who would have been king at the time of Robert's Rebellion?   I thought the male line was already extinct?   

fake aegon?

son of serra blackfyre and illlrio? nephew of varys balckfyre?

should be about 2 years old by then, if we assume he and real aegon was at similar age.  

it is irony that Aerys himself attended and fought valiantly in the last blackfyre rebellion but trusted a blackfyre in his court. 

[Curled Finger]

I thought Aegon was only 17 years old at the time Tyrion meets him?  Wouldn't he need to be 19 to have been alive at the time of HH?   TBH, i really thought he was even younger, but he would have to 17 to be able to be Aegon at all, right?   Jon Connington doesn't strike me as a conspirator.   I've taken him at face value, raising this child because he believed him to be the son of Rhaegar.  Surely he would know the difference between an infant and a 2 year-old?   

fake aegon?

son of serra blackfyre and illlrio? nephew of varys balckfyre?

should be about 2 years old by then, if we assume he and real aegon was at similar age.  

it is irony that Aerys himself attended and fought valiantly in the last blackfyre rebellion but trusted a blackfyre in his court. 

sorry it's backward--i'm finding this is the safest way to make sure I can quote...

[Bowen Marsh]

I always thought Rhaegar was behind the HH conspiracy, but you make a good point about Varys working Areys up in to a paranoid fit.   If Rhaegar was all that Selmy remembers and Aerys was a bad as Jamie recalls, why wouldn't Varys back Rhaegar?   He states repeatedly that his whole gig is for the good of the realm.   Could it be that Varys was behind the discord between Aerys and Rhaegar?   If Varys is a Blackfyre it's not unreasonable to line all those assumptions up.    Making Varys' goal not the good of the realm, but to install a Blackfyre on the throne.   My question is who was the Blackfyre who would have been king at the time of Robert's Rebellion?   I thought the male line was already extinct?   

Why Varys would not back Rhaegar?  Because Rhaegar was not the king.  Aerys chose another heir, Viserys.  Varys has to do what his king wanted him to do.  

1. Set an ambush for Lord Rickard Stark and his family.  Somewhere on the Kingsroad.  Kill them all and burn the bodies.  That's one nest of traitors down.  All the wolves would be dead and you can award Winterfell to the loyal house that spilled their secret plans to  you.
2. Kill Robert Baratheon during the tourney.  Make it look like an accident.  Any dirty looks from his brothers, kill them too on their way back to Storm's End.
3. Send a subtle message to Hoster Tully.  Order him to present himself before the throne, bend the knee, and reswear fealty.  Actually, go ahead and kill him on his way to King's Landing.  Make House Darry the paramounts of the River lands.
4. Leave Jon Arryn alone, but keep a few spies in his household staff.  Any signs he might cause trouble, drop poison in his stew.

[FreyPiesForSkagos]

You speak with the authority of the king, nothing you do can be a crime.

I can't really get behind that sentence. People often overlook that Westeros is a feudal society, not an absolute monarchy. This is not a scenario in which the king basically is the law. The king owes his power to the respect he can command from his lieges. This respect comes only through upholding shared values. So, since the king is not the law, Varys acting in the name of the king can be a crime.

[purple-eyes]

I thought Aegon was only 17 years old at the time Tyrion meets him?  Wouldn't he need to be 19 to have been alive at the time of HH?   TBH, i really thought he was even younger, but he would have to 17 to be able to be Aegon at all, right?   Jon Connington doesn't strike me as a conspirator.   I've taken him at face value, raising this child because he believed him to be the son of Rhaegar.  Surely he would know the difference between an infant and a 2 year-old?   

sorry it's backward--i'm finding this is the safest way to make sure I can quote...

The book said young griff was 18 years old when Tyrion met him (year 300). 

if we assume GRRM used the same age for real aegon and young griff (I think he did, because this is just a simplest way to write the book, there is not much point to set Aegon and young griff with some age difference to confuse readers and himself), 

So this put the birth date of Aegon either in late 281 or early 282. (such as Jon and robb both are 14 in 298 and they were born in 283, and dany is 14 in 298 and she was born in 284, it depends on which month) . and we know HH tourney happened in sometime in 281. 

So this fits. 

 

 

[Farstrider]

It seems to me, the main trouble makers were Lord Rickard, Brandon Stark, and Robert Baratheon.  You only need to kill all three.  I wouldn't bother with something like poison or an accident.  Use something reliable, like a beheading.  I would do it at Harrenhal.  Have a royal garrison hidden right outside Harrenhal.   Some disguised as pheasants.  As soon as each family leave the castle grounds, an arrow to the chest and then a beheading should do the trick.  The Starks probably brought a hundred men with them.  Make sure you have 300 or more.  As soon as Robert, Rickard, and Brandon are all dead, make a public announcement that they were plotting treason and present your evidence.  Tar their heads and the put it up on display at Harrenhal.   Make a deal with the loyal northman or north woman, who gave you the tip and give them all of the Stark lands and Winterfell.  Send Ned and Benjen to the wall.  Send Lyanna to Yunkai to train for her next profession.  Stannis, if provided with the evidence, will understand.  Renly might not, but he's young.  Keep an eye on the lad.  If Jon Arryn so much as expresses disagreement, arm Shagga's tribe, agree to grant them lands, give them the best weapons and armor and have them massacre the Eyrie.  Kill Jon Arryn and feed his testicles to Shagga's goats.  Talk to Lady Dustin and grant her some favors.  Pull down the Eyrie with wildfire.   Give Maester Wallys to the pyromancers to do with as they pleased.  Anything but praises and curtsys from the Tullys mean you need to burn down Riverrun with wildfire.  Do what Tywin would do.  Pull the Reynes of Castamere, if it becomes necessary.  Otherwise, just kill Robert B, Brandon and Rickard Stark.  Send the Stark boys to the wall.  Make an example.

[John Doe]

Why Varys would not back Rhaegar?  Because Rhaegar was not the king.  Aerys chose another heir, Viserys.  Varys has to do what his king wanted him to do.  

1. Set an ambush for Lord Rickard Stark and his family.  Somewhere on the Kingsroad.  Kill them all and burn the bodies.  That's one nest of traitors down.  All the wolves would be dead and you can award Winterfell to the loyal house that spilled their secret plans to  you.
2. Kill Robert Baratheon during the tourney.  Make it look like an accident.  Any dirty looks from his brothers, kill them too on their way back to Storm's End.
3. Send a subtle message to Hoster Tully.  Order him to present himself before the throne, bend the knee, and reswear fealty.  Actually, go ahead and kill him on his way to King's Landing.  Make House Darry the paramounts of the River lands.
4. Leave Jon Arryn alone, but keep a few spies in his household staff.  Any signs he might cause trouble, drop poison in his stew.

Because that would raise no suspisions...

[Lady Topspin]

6 months before the tourney.  That's plenty of time to do something about it.  The question, do you want to do this quietly or do you want to set an example?  Question, does Varys get to predict the Lyanna as the Knight of the Laughing Tree act?  If yes, I say kill Lyanna.  Send a faceless man to Winterfell and give her an accident.  Take out Lord Rickard and Brandon while the assassin is at it.  Three deaths is not unusual in those times.  As long as Varys had evidence, any non-Stark, non-Baratheon, and non-Tully would applaud. 

Robert would be angry, no matter what.  But you have prepared for this.  You have spies on the ports controlled by Jon Arryn.  You have spies at the foot of the Eyrie.  Wait for Robert.  Then kill him on his way south from the Eyrie.  Once he's dead, accuse the three families of treason.  Kill Robert, drag his body from the Mountain path down to King's Landing for his part in this treason.  Keep his armor on, else his remains won't last too long.

[Lion of the West]

As I see it the primary goal is to build a pro-Targaryen power block.

For building a power block of my own there are several different possibilities, but marriage alliances will be the most important. For start we must see that the only Great Houses that haven't so far commited to the rebels are; Lannister, Greyjoy and Tyrell. From this I think that two of them, Greyjoy and Tyrell, can be brought back and possiblty Lannister as well.

Lannister - the main issue here is keep the Lannisters on the same side as King Aerys. Thus we should do what we can to prevent Aerys from insuilting Lord Tywin anymore, like making Jaime into a Kingsguard and see what we can offer Lord Tywin. The important part here is try and mend the rift between the crown and Tywin or at least prevent Aerys from infecting it any more.

Greyjoy - contrary to Balon, Quellon would seem a more cooperative lord and he shall be made the Master of Ships and given a secret promise that in the case of a war between the crown and the rebels, Cape Kraken, at least and possibly the Stony Shore, shall fall to House Greyjoy, and to this we shall offer privilages in regards to trade and taxes that benefits the Ironborn to make it profitable for them to take a greater roll in the peaceful part of the realm.

Tyrell - this is a tought one since Aegon and Margaery are not certain be born yet and so that match can't be done to get Highgarden onboard, but I think that we should be able to make a match between Willas and Rhaenys and so bring the Tyrells with the crown.

If this works as intended we should see a power block of Crownlands+West+Reach+Dorne+scattered loyalists vs North+Riverlands+Vale+Stormlands. If it comes to blows, I feel that House Targaryen would be able to feel reasonably sure of victory, and also have enough support to play hardball if the rebellious block would want to play it in regard to the rights and freedoms of the lords and king.

[Roswell]

As I see it the primary goal is to build a pro-Targaryen power block.

For building a power block of my own there are several different possibilities, but marriage alliances will be the most important. For start we must see that the only Great Houses that haven't so far commited to the rebels are; Lannister, Greyjoy and Tyrell. From this I think that two of them, Greyjoy and Tyrell, can be brought back and possiblty Lannister as well.

Lannister - the main issue here is keep the Lannisters on the same side as King Aerys. Thus we should do what we can to prevent Aerys from insuilting Lord Tywin anymore, like making Jaime into a Kingsguard and see what we can offer Lord Tywin. The important part here is try and mend the rift between the crown and Tywin or at least prevent Aerys from infecting it any more.

Greyjoy - contrary to Balon, Quellon would seem a more cooperative lord and he shall be made the Master of Ships and given a secret promise that in the case of a war between the crown and the rebels, Cape Kraken, at least and possibly the Stony Shore, shall fall to House Greyjoy, and to this we shall offer privilages in regards to trade and taxes that benefits the Ironborn to make it profitable for them to take a greater roll in the peaceful part of the realm.

Tyrell - this is a tought one since Aegon and Margaery are not certain be born yet and so that match can't be done to get Highgarden onboard, but I think that we should be able to make a match between Willas and Rhaenys and so bring the Tyrells with the crown.

If this works as intended we should see a power block of Crownlands+West+Reach+Dorne+scattered loyalists vs North+Riverlands+Vale+Stormlands. If it comes to blows, I feel that House Targaryen would be able to feel reasonably sure of victory, and also have enough support to play hardball if the rebellious block would want to play it in regard to the rights and freedoms of the lords and king.

Very good ideas. 

Lannisters - On point about Jaime.  Deny his request to join the Kingsguard.  Make some friendly gestures to Lord Tywin and honor the man.

Greyjoy - In addition to what  you said, make them this promise.  They can have the house and the lands of any Stark bannerman who rebels against the throne.  Give them White Harbour after putting down the rebellion.  Put all of the Manderlys to the sword.  Foster Theon with the Darrys.

Tyrell - Rhaenys and Willas.  Good match.  Put Mace on the small council.

Tully - Hoster really was just looking to marry off Lysa.  And he's not going to settle for a non-high lord, so that pretty much ruins any chances with them.  I say, kill Hoster Tully secretly.

Martell - Viserys + Arrianne.  Yeah, the children from that union are likely to be weird but that's an issue that can be addressed later.

We also know that the crown has friends in the east.  I say maintain good relations with them should the Targaryen royal coffers were to run out.

Any solution, in my opinion, has to involve killing Brandon Stark and Robert Baratheon. Send Rhaegar into exile so he can't interfere with the planned elimination of the traitors, more importantly, so he can't fall in love with Lyanna, Rickard's bargaining piece.  She may have to die too.

 

[John Doe]

I'd offer Tywin to release Jaime from his oath, name him hand, and marry Viserys to Cersei. I think that should be enough to make him a loyalist again. If he doesn't accept it I'd keep Jaime and offer a similar deal, marrying Aegon to Margaery and naming him hand, to Mace Tyrell. 

Besides, seeing how Rhaegar fucked up the Trident, I'd give command to someone else, either Tywin if he is on my side or another loyalist. He'd be ordered not to attack Robert, but wait for the Reachmen to arrive from Storms End.

 

 

[Jeeves]

Well, with the treasures at my disposal, just hire an assassin to kill the masterminds. Kill the Stark maesters, Brandon, Lyanna, and Robert.  Kill Hoster for lacking gratitude.  Give Riverrun to House Darry.

[Targaryen Restoration]

Kill Lyanna and Brandon.  Rickard loses his bargaining pieces.  Robert will cause trouble.  He will have to be dealt with too. 

[Knight Of Winter]

A polite remainder to some people here: kill them all is not something king can easily practice on his lords paramounts. After all, Aerys had the similar idea, and look where it got him.

If Lord Paramount is killed secretly (posion, assassin), it will raise many many suspicions, especially amongst his allies. If he's publicly executed, that's even worse - as it basically gives rebels great cause for a rebellion while not achieving much (his heir will just take over), all while giving everyone present reasons to doubt your ability (hmm, is this crazy king who kills his bannermen really the one I want to back?).

 

Westeros is not an absolute monarchy, where king can do all he wants. It's an feudal monarchy, where king's position is very dependent on his vassal lords. If all/most of them lose faith in incumbent ruler, he will go down, along with his dynasty. And executions are a great way to achieve just that.

[FreyPiesForSkagos]

Westeros is not an absolute monarchy, where king can do all he wants. It's an feudal monarchy, where king's position is very dependent on his vassal lords. If all/most of them lose faith in incumbent ruler, he will go down, along with his dynasty. And executions are a great way to achieve just that.

I tried to tell prople that above, but nobody seems to care.  I guess it's more fun to debate these kinds of schemes and whom to kill first

[Lion of the West]

Very good ideas. 

Lannisters - On point about Jaime.  Deny his request to join the Kingsguard.  Make some friendly gestures to Lord Tywin and honor the man.

Greyjoy - In addition to what  you said, make them this promise.  They can have the house and the lands of any Stark bannerman who rebels against the throne.  Give them White Harbour after putting down the rebellion.  Put all of the Manderlys to the sword.  Foster Theon with the Darrys.

Tyrell - Rhaenys and Willas.  Good match.  Put Mace on the small council.

Tully - Hoster really was just looking to marry off Lysa.  And he's not going to settle for a non-high lord, so that pretty much ruins any chances with them.  I say, kill Hoster Tully secretly.

Martell - Viserys + Arrianne.  Yeah, the children from that union are likely to be weird but that's an issue that can be addressed later.

We also know that the crown has friends in the east.  I say maintain good relations with them should the Targaryen royal coffers were to run out.

Any solution, in my opinion, has to involve killing Brandon Stark and Robert Baratheon. Send Rhaegar into exile so he can't interfere with the planned elimination of the traitors, more importantly, so he can't fall in love with Lyanna, Rickard's bargaining piece.  She may have to die too.

 

Thanks, and good idea to marry Viserys to Arianne! That would ensure that the Martells says with us even when the Tyrells gets a place at the table.