Game of Knee-Jerk Decisions

[TimJames]

In the series, there are characters who make major decisions with consideration to all the consequences. Characters who make complex and sinister plots and schemes that come together in great power.

Then there are these characters, who make knee-jerk decisions based on high emotions or fear. 

Name a character or event that stood out to you in the book as being a not-so-wise decision.

[INCBlackbird]

Theon taking Winterfell, also in general everything Theon does pretty much... Because he's the perfect example of a character who thinks with his emotions instead of using his brain...

[INCBlackbird]

Jaime is another one who acts rashly. Though in his case more on impulse than emotion I think.

[Lord Fauntleroy]

Ned telling Cersei that he knew about the incest. He really should have thought more on that one.

[Lady Topspin]

In the series, there are characters who make major decisions with consideration to all the consequences. Characters who make complex and sinister plots and schemes that come together in great power.

Then there are these characters, who make knee-jerk decisions based on high emotions or fear. 

Name a character or event that stood out to you in the book as being a not-so-wise decision.

Hi Tim,

There are a few.  The best examples are Jon Snow and Brandon Stark.  You asked for one.  I will talk about Jon since his actions are more familiar to us than Brandon's historical confrontation with his king.

Choosing to even try to rescue Arya was a most unwise move.  Jon's resulting decision was unwise, to say the least.  

[Maxxine]

Definitely Catelyn taking Tyrion. Imo this is one the worst decisions in the series. Even if Tyrion was the one who tried to kill Bran what did she think was going to happen in taking the queen's brother. She thought she would be able to execute or imprison him and no one would do anything.

But w/o this decision at least 1/3 if not 1/2 of the series doesn't happen so I guess i can't be too upset about it.

[Lady Topspin]

Definitely Catelyn taking Tyrion. Imo this is one the worst decisions in the series. Even if Tyrion was the one who tried to kill Bran what did she think was going to happen in taking the queen's brother. She thought she would be able to execute or imprison him and no one would do anything.

 

But w/o this decision at least 1/3 if not 1/2 of the series doesn't happen so I guess i can't be too upset about it.

This is another one.  Catelyn should have had more fear of Tywin Lannister.  

[MaybeINeverSawACamel]

Obviously Robb boinking and then marrying Jeyne Westerling. Obviously.

[Slowpoke Martin]

Choosing to even try to rescue Arya was a most unwise move.  Jon's resulting decision was unwise, to say the least.  

I might not be remembering correctly here but, wasn't it Mel who set that up to prove to Jon that he should trust her? She basically told Jon her plan and if Jon tried to stop it then he would have actually been getting involved in the scheme itself.

[dsug]

Jaime pushing Bran. 

Cersei accusing Tyrion. 

Joffrey beheading Ned.

[Good Guy Garlan]

JonCon's character is sort of moving into this territory now, isn't he? I mean, not fully because he's still relatively cautious, but he's also throwing caution to the winds and being like, "let's show Aegon to the generals, who gives a fuck. Let's also invade Westeros and take Storm's End, but right now, people! I'm on a VERY tight schedule!"

[Slowpoke Martin]

JonCon's character is sort of moving into this territory now, isn't he? I mean, not fully because he's still relatively cautious, but he's also throwing caution to the winds and being like, "let's show Aegon to the generals, who gives a fuck. Let's also invade Westeros and take Storm's End, but right now, people! I'm on a VERY tight schedule!"

Well I'm sure he is informed by Varys/Illyrio on the situation of Westeros. Invading when they did was the perfect time to do so, everyone hates the Lannister/Tyrell coalition and Varys is there to cause more internal problems.

Look at all the castles they managed to take so easily, there are plenty of leaderless men out there looking for a cause to join.

[Walda]

Lysa deserves an honourable mention here.

Not so much for the letter to Catelyn, as that was practically dictated to her by Petyr, and would not have reached Winterfell without him.

Not so much for leaving the capital for the Eyrie - Cersei was on to her, Lord Tywin hates weakness and was on to her, she and Robert narrowly escaped being toast.

Keeping the Vale out of the War of Five Kings was a smart move. I do wonder what Petyr would have advised if she had been all for getting involved, but she clearly wasn't and does deserve credit for that.

But...her adulterous relationship with Petyr at Kings Landing, while he was telling anyone with ears how he took the maidenheads of both Tully girls, and her husband was Hand to the King - that wasn't a great idea.

Petyr's boasting seems not a good idea either, but that is on his head. Appointing him as Master of Coin is on Jon Arryn's, as we know he felt quite able to countermand his wife when he chooses (eg. insisting SweetRobin would go to Stannis), and it is hard to believe he was not aware of the debt to the Iron Bank when every other member of the small council seem to be.(The Lannister debt is probably what Robert inherited from Aerys, plus interest.)

Locking Tyrion in the sky cells, allowing him to be abused and neglected, that was her mistake. Putting him on trial for causes that Petyr could prove she had trumped up herself, that was a mistake. Letting Tyrion leave without an escort to guarantee him safe passage home, and act as envoys for the Eyrie if and when they encountered Lord Tywin, that was a mistake. 

Marrying Petyr, big, big mistake (although not exactly a knee-jerk one). Taking Sansa to the Eyrie, big mistake. Why not keep her at the fingers, where she can easily escape further north if need be, and Lysa can at least claim not to know she was there? For a woman who wants to stay out of war, she does a lot to tempt fate.

And of course, it was a mistake to rise to Petyr's bait, and take the matter of the kiss up with Sansa.

[Good Guy Garlan]

Well I'm sure he is informed by Varys/Illyrio on the situation of Westeros. Invading when they did was the perfect time to do so, everyone hates the Lannister/Tyrell coalition and Varys is there to cause more internal problems.

Look at all the castles they managed to take so easily, there are plenty of leaderless men out there looking for a cause to join.

Yeah, but they were really lucky too, considering how much they altered the original plan of meeting Dany, and they did that without informing Varys or Ilyrio. 

[TimJames]

JonCon's character is sort of moving into this territory now, isn't he? I mean, not fully because he's still relatively cautious, but he's also throwing caution to the winds and being like, "let's show Aegon to the generals, who gives a fuck. Let's also invade Westeros and take Storm's End, but right now, people! I'm on a VERY tight schedule!"

In a way, he IS on a tight schedule. Jon Connington only has two and a half books to establish his and Ageon's relevance. 

The clock's a-ticking.

[Good Guy Garlan]

In a way, he IS on a tight schedule. Jon Connington only has two and a half books to establish his and Ageon's relevance. 

The clock's a-ticking.

That's Aegon's fault for showing up so late

[princess_snow]

I agree with pretty much everything Ive read above ... what about ( as a minor character ) Cressen - trying to poison Mel ? I know he was old but seriously that was pretty silly no matter the outcome, 

[DeathYon]

Ned's beheading is probably the most obvious one.

[SevasTra82]

Ned's beheading is probably the most obvious one.

First one that popped in my head as well.  Joffrey's knee-jerk reaction to changing Neds punishment is what started this whole book series to began with.

The next would be Robb marrying Jeyne.  If Robb never did that and went through with marrying a Frey...the Red Wedding would never happen, and The North very well could (and still be) independent from The South.

[Walda]

</snip>

The next would be Robb marrying Jeyne.  If Robb never did that and went through with marrying a Frey...the Red Wedding would never happen, and The North very well could (and still be) independent from The South.

Do you think so? I think Walder Frey was probably in secret alliance with Rouse Bolton by the time Robb crossed the Green Fork, and I doubt Tywin would have let Sers Jarad, Hosteen, and Danwell Frey, or even Ronel Rivers be ransomed before hammering out an alliance (ie. He gives the terms and the Freys say yes to them).

Marrying Jeyne was absolutely a knee-jerk decision, but the Red Wedding was already being prepared for.

"Lord Walder had ordered the slaughter of the Starks at Roslin’s wedding, but it had been Lame Lothar who had plotted it out with Roose Bolton, all the way down to which songs would be played."(ASoS, Epilogue) This we learn from Merret - not the craftiest Frey in the Twins, nor the most clued in. He is unlikely to know anything that wasn't common knowledge at the Twins.

Before the marriage, there was a long period of wet weather, the rivers rose, the bridges washed away, the fords impassable. On his way to the Twins from Riverrun, Robb had hoped "Bolton got across the Trident before the rains began." and arrived before them.

When they arrived at the Twins, Catelyn found that Bolton had in fact arrived shortly after them, behind Robin Flint, Ser Wendel Manderly, Great and Small Jon Umber. ("They were all damp. Another man, still wetter, stood before the fire in a pale pink cloak trimmed with white fur. “Lord Bolton,” she said...“What’s happened?”...
“Lannisters on the Trident,” said Ser Wendel unhappily. “My brother is taken again.”(ASoS, Ch.49 Catelyn VI))

Later in the same chapter, Lord Bolton explains "I delayed too long before leaving Harrenhal. Aenys Frey departed several days before me and crossed the Trident at the ruby ford, though not without difficulty. But by the time we came up the river was a torrent. I had no choice but to ferry my men across in small boats, of which we had too few. Two-thirds of my strength was on the north side when the Lannisters attacked those still waiting to cross. Norrey, Locke, and Burley men chiefly, with Ser Wylis Manderly and his White Harbor knights as rear guard. I was on the wrong side of the Trident, powerless to help them. Ser Wylis rallied our men as best he could, but Gregor Clegane attacked with heavy horse and drove them into the river. As many drowned as were cut down. More fled, and the rest were taken captive.”

At least part of what Roose says is absolutely factual. We have Ser Wendal confirms Ser Wylis' capture, and Jamie Lannister "left Harrenhal the same morning, beneath a cold grey sky that promised rain. Ser Aenys Frey had marched three days before, striking northeast for the kingsroad. Bolton meant to follow him. “The Trident is in flood,” he told Jaime. “Even at the ruby ford, the crossing will be difficult. You will give my warm regards to your father?”
“So long as you give mine to Robb Stark.”
“That I shall.” (ASoS, Ch.44 Jaime VI)

The afternoon of the day that Catelyn freed Jaime (and the day after she heard that Theon had killed Bran and Rickon at Winterfell), a raven came from the West, informing Maester Vyman that Robb had married Jayne. Vyman informed Catelyn that “Lord Tywin has left the riverlands. All’s quiet on the fords.”(ASoS, Ch.02 Catelyn I)

At the same time, Lord Bolton is at Harrenhal with Aenys Frey : “We must not allow Lord Tywin to trap us here at Harrenhal,” Ser Aenys Frey was saying as Arya filled the washbasin." Ser Jared Frey, one of the fifteen hundred swords Anys brought with him adds “Is Edmure Tully so drunk on his victory that he thinks to give Lord Tywin battle in the open field?” They talk of the Battle of Blackwater and Anys adds “Even if Riverrun marshals all its strength and the Young Wolf wins back from the west, how can we hope to match the numbers Lord Tywin can send against us?"  When Lord Bolton reminds them Robb has won every battle, “He has lost the north,” insisted Hosteen Frey. “He has lost Winterfell! His brothers are dead …” and importantly "Roose Bolton smiled. “It is a fine thing to have so many valiant brothers in such troubled times. I shall think on all you’ve said.”(ACoK, Ch.64 Arya X) This is the first glimpse we have of Lord Bolton as a married man.

Later that day, after Bolton has gone out hunting, Arya sees another raven arrive. It tells Harrenhal Robb has married Jayne Westerling. It angers the Freys. Elmer confides "We’ve been dishonored, Aenys says. There was a bird from the Twins. My lord father says I’ll need to marry someone else, or be a septon.”(ACoK, Ch.64 Arya X)

Arya saw Anys Frey arrive at Harrenhal a few days up to a very few weeks earlier - a little after midnight the day after Lord Tywin left Harrenhal.(ACoK, Ch.47 Arya IX)

In spite of his fears about Lord Tywin returning, Aerys leaves only to attend the Red Wedding. So apart from encoded letters, Roose Bolton has had not contact with Lothar Frey that Merret could observe, for at least a few days, and more like a few weeks before Robb's marriage to Jayne Westerling was known, until they meet the day of the Red Wedding.

Yet between them, they had the wedding planned, down to the music.

We don't see much of Lame Lothar until he arrives at Riverrun as an envoy, from the Twins in answer to either the raven announcing Robb's marriage, or one shortly after, requesting a renegotiation of the understanding he had reached with the Twins, in order to recross the Green Fork and take back the North.

Lothar arrives at Riverrun just in time to be one of the seven pallbearers for Lord Hoster Tully. He sends gracious words from Lord Frey about having Jayne Westerling as Queen, and grievous news from the Dreadfort, of Winterfell burned and Ser Roderick slain. Robb has already learnt of the defeat at Duskendale, and had earlier heard of Ramsey's death, but significantly, has been told nothing from Lord Bolton of the Dreadfort or of Winterfell.

"Lothar smiled. “My lord father bids me tell Your Grace that he will agree to this new marriage alliance between our houses and renew his fealty to the King in the North, upon the condition that the King’s Grace apologize for the insult done to House Frey, in his royal person, face to face.” So his first condition is that Robb must come to the Twins to deliver his apology. "As you accept these terms, I am then instructed to offer Lord Tully the hand of my sister, the Lady Roslin,...It is my lord father’s wish that this marriage take place at once.”

Lady Roslin is Robb's age, and a very suitable match. I suspect she had always been intended as the bride/bait. The only alterations were, that Robb was come to deliver an apology rather than to wed, and the date had gone from indefinite to ASAP. I wonder, if the groom had not changed, if Robb would have lived long enough to know of the birth of his son (as Lord Tywin seems to have wanted to inherit the property of Winterfell via Sansa, and to have made Roose Warden in the North, meaning that it was only the Tully lands and titles that ever seem to have been intended to fall the share of Lord Frey.)

In any case, the terms are agreed to, and off Robb goes, in a shower of rain that lasts his lifetime. "The drizzle that had sent them off turned into a soft steady rain by midday, and continued well past nightfall. The next day the northmen never saw the sun at all, but rode beneath leaden skies with their hoods pulled up to keep the water from their eyes. It was a heavy rain, turning roads to mud and fields to quagmires, swelling the rivers and stripping the trees of their leaves."

The weather when Bolton departed for the wedding, and the next day, at Harrenhal had been "a darkening sky that threatened rain"(ASoS, Ch.44 Jaime VI). But Jaime and Brienne seemed to have missed all the (mysterious, children-of-the-foresty) bad weather that pursued King Robb to the Twins.

When the story of the Red Wedding came to them, they "had been at Brindlewood"(ASoS, Ch.62 Jaime VII), and when they arrive at King's Landing, Lord Tywin mentions he "sent men into the riverlands to look for you. Gregor Clegane, Samwell Spicer, the brothers Plumm."

Again, this is partially confirmed by Bolton, who met Clegane at the Green Fork in a battle other bannermen (whose loyalty we don't have reason to suspect - yet) were convinced was genuine enough, I suspect he had prior warning of it, hence the White Harbour (nearest neighbour to the dreadfort) was bringing up his rear, where Clegane's forces attacked.

Given Samwell Spicer is Jayne Westerling's cousin (her mother's father's brother's boy), it would be reasonable to assume that Tywin had some prior or at least, contemporary awareness of Jayne Westerling's marriage, too.