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European politics: Into the "right" futur


Biglose

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Wanted to have same kind of positiv title, but one can already guess what it is about. The right is winning in Europe big time. And by right I do not mean the conservatives, I refere to nationalists.

Great Britain with Ukip was among the first but I guess thanks to their closed door policy(supported by beeing an Island) it didn't got worse.
The total opposite is france, where I already hear from people of whom I know they are moderet conservatives or even used to vote for the socialists comparism from Merkels refugee policy to Lebensborn. This sunday we are witnessing an attempt to stop the FN from gaining foothold in several regional governments by a unification of the left and the right in several regions (the left withdrawing). (And even then it is not a slam dunk)
Austria is more or less locked in a big coalition with the extreme right keeping up the pressure. They are there even looking to go into a coalition with the more to the left party, because the conservatives kind of tricked them in the past. Polend is another example of a significant shift to the right. And what is quite interesting in all of those cases, it is young people voting right wing.
Germany to this point has had kind of an easy ride, but it seems the sins of the last 20 to 30 years are catching up with us. Sharia police on the streets, entire areas left to some criminal clans and a very strange reaction from the people in power to those developments (or often no reaction at all), has lead to people not caring about nationalists gathering in the streets and even right wing violance is more often met with just apathy. And left wing extrimists are doing their best through rioting to even further that development...

(And denmark, sweden, norway, belgium and even switzerland go more or less in the same direction)

Is there a conspiracy to drive Europe to the right, are people just that stupid or am I too pessimistic and it ain't that bad?


 

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Wanted to have same kind of positiv title, but one can already guess what it is about. The right is winning in Europe big time. And by right I do not mean the conservatives, I refere to nationalists.

Great Britain with Ukip was among the first but I guess thanks to their closed door policy(supported by beeing an Island) it didn't got worse.
The total opposite is france, where I already hear from people of whom I know they are moderet conservatives or even used to vote for the socialists comparism from Merkels refugee policy to Lebensborn. This sunday we are witnessing an attempt to stop the FN from gaining foothold in several regional governments by a unification of the left and the right in several regions (the left withdrawing). (And even then it is not a slam dunk)
Austria is more or less locked in a big coalition with the extreme right keeping up the pressure. They are there even looking to go into a coalition with the more to the left party, because the conservatives kind of tricked them in the past. Polend is another example of a significant shift to the right. And what is quite interesting in all of those cases, it is young people voting right wing.
Germany to this point has had kind of an easy ride, but it seems the sins of the last 20 to 30 years are catching up with us. Sharia police on the streets, entire areas left to some criminal clans and a very strange reaction from the people in power to those developments (or often no reaction at all), has lead to people not caring about nationalists gathering in the streets and even right wing violance is more often met with just apathy. And left wing extrimists are doing their best through rioting to even further that development...

(And denmark, sweden, norway, belgium and even switzerland go more or less in the same direction)

Is there a conspiracy to drive Europe to the right, are people just that stupid or am I too pessimistic and it ain't that bad?


 

Biglose,

"Sharia police on the street" in Germany?  Where are you getting that from?  Saddly, after major attacks its not unusual for "nationalism" to ramp up as a reaction.  The same thing happened in the US after 9/11.

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"Sharia police on the street" in Germany?  Where are you getting that from?

There's a case of a small group of salafists wandering the streets of Wuppertal (IIRC) at night dressed in orange vests with the words "Shariah Police" written on the back. They accosted Muslims who were behaving in what they considered un-Islamic ways.

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Jon,

And the Politzei aren't stomping on them with impunity?  That's the one thing I keep hearing from servicemember who go to Germany.  "Don't fuck with the Politzei they'll hurt you."  Aren't "Sharia Police" doing exactly that?

First of all, no 't' in 'Polizei'.;)

Second, I didn't follow the story closely. For all I know the case is still making its way through the courts.

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Despite their name the so called "sharia police" is only advocating for their beliefs and handing out promotional material.  AFAiK they have so far only been accused of having uploaded a video without asking all the people shown for their consent. They are however monitored by the police.

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Elizabeth,

This is what I found:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35059488

It seems that the German Courts ruled that what they were doing wasn't illegal as they were handing out leaflets not accosting passers-by who they believed were in violation of Sharia prohibitions.  Regardless it would make me uncomfortable if a Orthodox-Jewish or Orthodox-Christian groups took it upon themselves to engage in similar behavior.  But is my discomfort enough to justify legal sanction against what is essentially religious prosthetation?

In Beaufort SC for years every Saturday a group of fundamentialist street preachers would stand on a corner of Bay Street and scream at women in shorts that they were "Fornicators" and that they were leading men into sin.  The city attempted to ban them for being a public nuisance but the Courts held that their speech was protect both by the right to free speech and the right to freely excercise their religious faith.  

The point where that would become illegal is the moment they laid hands on another and attempted to compel their compliance with their religious proscriptions.  

If and until that happens the "sharia police" may be within their rights.

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"Lau could still potentially face a prosecution for organising a public meeting without notifying the relevant authorities. The court heard how the men declared Wuppertal's main city station and other areas nearby as a "Shariah Controlled Zone" ordering the locals to abide by their rules.

They posted on their Facebook page during the patrols: "What have all the grumblers now coming out of the woodwork done for wayward youth? Do you realise how many are buying and consuming drugs? If you are so honest and good, where is your shrieking and outrage."

Lau, an infamous preacher in Germany that has spent time in prison, was photographed in Syria posing with a tank and a Kalashnikov rifle around his neck last year - and subsequently had his passport confiscated."

From ibtimes

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Wanted to have same kind of positiv title, but one can already guess what it is about. The right is winning in Europe big time. And by right I do not mean the conservatives, I refere to nationalists.

Great Britain with Ukip was among the first but I guess thanks to their closed door policy(supported by beeing an Island) it didn't got worse.
The total opposite is france, where I already hear from people of whom I know they are moderet conservatives or even used to vote for the socialists comparism from Merkels refugee policy to Lebensborn. This sunday we are witnessing an attempt to stop the FN from gaining foothold in several regional governments by a unification of the left and the right in several regions (the left withdrawing). (And even then it is not a slam dunk)
Austria is more or less locked in a big coalition with the extreme right keeping up the pressure. They are there even looking to go into a coalition with the more to the left party, because the conservatives kind of tricked them in the past. Polend is another example of a significant shift to the right. And what is quite interesting in all of those cases, it is young people voting right wing.
Germany to this point has had kind of an easy ride, but it seems the sins of the last 20 to 30 years are catching up with us. Sharia police on the streets, entire areas left to some criminal clans and a very strange reaction from the people in power to those developments (or often no reaction at all), has lead to people not caring about nationalists gathering in the streets and even right wing violance is more often met with just apathy. And left wing extrimists are doing their best through rioting to even further that development...

(And denmark, sweden, norway, belgium and even switzerland go more or less in the same direction)

Is there a conspiracy to drive Europe to the right, are people just that stupid or am I too pessimistic and it ain't that bad?


 

What is stupid about it? Voting for nationalist parties as the world and Europe looks now is completely rational. No, "right wing" politics aren't guaranteed to lead to Hitler anymore than left wing politics are guaranteed to lead to Pol Pot or Stalin. 

"Ahh it's so horrible that people are voting for Francois Hollande. If he wins he will force everyone out into the countryside to become farmers and then execute 30% of our population in 3 years. Just look at Cambodia! #SayNoToCommunism"  

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Is there a conspiracy to drive Europe to the right, are people just that stupid or am I too pessimistic and it ain't that bad?

I don't think it's so much a conspiracy as an instance of the elites no longer being able to fully suppress the views of a substantial fraction of the population. The recent wave of migrants and the terrorist attacks are the straws that broke the camel's back, but the load has been building up for much longer. The European Union was sold to society as an unadulterated good thing, but, like most major economic reforms, it created winners and losers and (also like most major economic reforms), the elites had a substantially higher probability of being winners.

If the economy was extremely strong and there was a dire shortage of labor, people might be willing to overlook the nature of the migrants. However, as things stand, even if everything goes right and the migrants fully drop the more abhorrent of their customs and attitudes, most of them still won't be able to get good jobs because there aren't enough of those even for the natives. Thus, there will be more crime, and, given that assimilation in such circumstances is difficult, almost certainly more terrorism.

Furthermore, the above-mentioned natives will now be competing even harder for the same good jobs. The elites in both the US and Europe have been pushing the narrative that labor is exempt from the laws of supply and demand and that immigration is good for the economy for a long time. However, given the consequences people, are finally starting to either understand that in this context, "the economy" means "the ruling class that controls most of the wealth" or, if they're not smart enough to understand that, simply disbelieving the myriad of studies on the subject entirely.

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Terrorism leads to fear, which leads to a psychological need for the fear to be relieved. Nationalists and right-wingers in general propose to transform that fear using the alchemy of rhetoric into anger and hate and drive, which they can use to attain political power. Therefore terrorism is good for the right wing.

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What is stupid about it? Voting for nationalist parties as the world and Europe looks now is completely rational. No, "right wing" politics aren't guaranteed to lead to Hitler anymore than left wing politics are guaranteed to lead to Pol Pot or Stalin. 

"Ahh it's so horrible that people are voting for Francois Hollande. If he wins he will force everyone out into the countryside to become farmers and then execute 30% of our population in 3 years. Just look at Cambodia! #SayNoToCommunism"  

Sorry, for making it a bit unclear. I am not talking about the people voting, most of those act according to their information and in their interests. (I may think they are wrong in the long term but I see why the vote and position themself the way they do)

I am talking about the elites in media and politics who should be by fare better informed than anybody on this board. But still they act in a way which is has been obvious to bring the opposite of what they claim they want.

Granted, I too do not believe it is actually a conspiracy to get the right wing in power. What I honestly believe is, that it is politically better not to address problems until they turned into a wildfire. And even then why not wait until your opponents got burned.

I don't think it's so much a conspiracy as an instance of the elites no longer being able to fully suppress the views of a substantial fraction of the population. The recent wave of migrants and the terrorist attacks are the straws that broke the camel's back, but the load has been building up for much longer. The European Union was sold to society as an unadulterated good thing, but, like most major economic reforms, it created winners and losers and (also like most major economic reforms), the elites had a substantially higher probability of being winners.

If the economy was extremely strong and there was a dire shortage of labor, people might be willing to overlook the nature of the migrants. However, as things stand, even if everything goes right and the migrants fully drop the more abhorrent of their customs and attitudes, most of them still won't be able to get good jobs because there aren't enough of those even for the natives. Thus, there will be more crime, and, given that assimilation in such circumstances is difficult, almost certainly more terrorism.

Furthermore, the above-mentioned natives will now be competing even harder for the same good jobs. The elites in both the US and Europe have been pushing the narrative that labor is exempt from the laws of supply and demand and that immigration is good for the economy for a long time. However, given the consequences people, are finally starting to either understand that in this context, "the economy" means "the ruling class that controls most of the wealth" or, if they're not smart enough to understand that, simply disbelieving the myriad of studies on the subject entirely.

But economies can grow. Their is not a limited amount of jobs to go around now is there? Germany had also a lot of immigration but unemployment ain't that high. Granted wages are quite low.
I think with more rational politics in general a lot of the problems now could have been prevented.
A lot of the problems are self made. I mean in Rotherham the police was not forced to turn a blind eye until it blew up, at least not by an outside power. In germany one would not have needed to accept antisemitism and chauvinism up to a seperate justice system.
I think upholding illusions was just more important. The american police is not the way they are because americans just like to shoot people, they are how they are because they were always at the front line of enforcing the existing law on any culture arriving in the US. Europe tried to stay socially a all white society while having a huge immigration. The obvious result of it was seperation. If you did not accept basic cultural and legal norms, you could only live in an area where they were not enforced. And if you were born in this area you would never have noticed that they even exist or that outside of the block they even are valid for you. (Not joking, in the study done in Berlin a lot of people asked in those areas thought that you need to be of "german heritage" to actually go to a german court. )

The problem now is  that the german part of the population which is now affected, actually knows that things should not be like that.

@Ser Scot A Ellision

Polizei ist Ländersache. (Means the police is a matter of the state not Federal. The federal police in germany is quite weak, due to the 3. Reich so there is nothing comparable to for example the american FBI. It is more fragmented.)

A few years back there was a study about how the police is handeling rape cases and the verdict was, well it depends. Really between not even a double digit clearance rate up to over 50%. Now one part is that they are now looking into more cases where you just can't proove anything, without magic or abandoning due process you won't be able to do something there. But I think he said/she said is much less of a threat for the social fabric compared to well we are just drowning in work and we can't find the guy who left you half dead out in the cold. And if you see that there are huge differances between the single states in germany, well it shows that police work is taken more serious in some. To name one Baveria. And what kind of magic, they are also doing the best work with the refugees... (And to go back to your point: Take a wild guess where most of the US bases are? Yes, in the Southwest+Baveria, the area with better policework...) https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3d/US_military_bases_in_Germany.svg

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Biglose,

I'm aware that the BRD is a federal State and that the Lande's have a lot of power locally.  I was merely expressing my surprise that the Polizei, who are generally not noted for the kind, tolerant, and loving attitude toward people stirring up trouble hadn't stomped on the "Sharia Police" and their "patrols".

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Biglose,

I'm aware that the BRD is a federal State and that the Lande's have a lot of power locally.  I was merely expressing my surprise that the Polizei, who are generally not noted for the kind, tolerant, and loving attitude toward people stirring up trouble hadn't stomped on the "Sharia Police" and their "patrols".

Well, look the police in germany is right now talking about wearing bodycams to protect police officers from violence. I know that BaWü and Bavaria the police reacts very fast and at least did not use to retreat, but thats not the case in general in germany. So I think something like that would not be happening in Bavaria.

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The local courts determined that what these "sharia policemen" were doing was largely legal and covered by the freedoms of speech and religion. The only thing they were actually guilty of was not announcing their rallies to the police.

On a related note, our right-wingers will find it very hard to get rid of salafists in this country by keeping Muslim refugees out. The leading salafist figures in Germany are to a very large degree ethnic German convertites, not Turks or Iranians or even Arabs. Muslim immigrants are less of a problem, from that perspective, than natives who become Muslims.

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