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Is Doran trying to get his family killed off?


The Sleeper

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Like many others I find Doran Martell's depiction and actions difficult to make sense off. Allegedly he is a deliberate l, thoughtfull player who wants to get revenge against the wrongs done against his family, aims at a Targaryen restoration and avoids outright war as improbable for Dorne to win. And yet he has done little to nothing in the course of the books to further those goals and what actions he has taken do not seem to further those goals in any concrete fashion. For the most part he seems to avoid being commited  and keeps Dorne out of the way.

Meanwhile he consistently sends his nearest and dearest into mortal danger. Oberyn is of course the prime example, as he sent him into the proverbial lion's den where he was promptly chewed. The pattern repeats itself with the sand snakes. Lady Nym is sent to the same Lion's den, Obara is sent to hunt a dangerous fugitive in his castle, Tyenne is also sent to King's Landing, Arianne goes to negotiate with the highly suspect leader of a band of dangerous mercenaries and Quentyn was sent in a dangerous journey around the world to woe the blood drenched dragon queen. One would think he did not have their well being in mind, particularly after what befell Oberyn.

I think the way to put his actions into context is to consider another set of priorities which he does not confess to any of his confidants. Simply put his position as Prince of Dorne is precarious and not only his actual position but his preferred policies and his legacy of peaceful rule. He has had to contend with his bloodthirsty, charismatic younger brother his entire rule, who has caused no small amount of trouble throughout his rule and has been forced to make consessions in order to put out the fires Oberyn has started. His first appearance in the books finds him handicapped, isolated with his bastard nieces making demands of him about policy and the people throwing vegetables at him. Meanwhile, Oberyn already played a major role in the governance of Dorne prior to his death, had shown himself capable of taking independent action and worse, he commanded more loyalty than Doran himself.

I think that from Doran's perspective his appointment to the small council presented a perfect opportunity. His poor health made his personal participation an impossibility, it took Oberyn out of Dorne and it guaranteed that he would make trouble for his enemies. Yet his death did not solve the problem as the sandsnakes are little Oberyn's with tits, Arianne was enamored with him and his control over Dorne is compromised. As for Quentyn we should keep in mind that he has been fostered with the Martels' traditionall enemies  and cannot be trusted from Doran's perspective. So rinse and repeat. He ceizes every opportunity that comes his way to use each one as a lightning rod with varying degrees of expendability, while getting them out of the way in Dorne.

In short I think Doran's actions make much more sense if his priority is to maintain control in Dorne rather than other his self-professed aims.

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So he's killing everyone who's pissing him off.

Except the Lannisters and theBaratheons? 

More like he is placing people who are a threat to his authority in harm's way and out of his own.

Besides it's not like he can do anything about Lannisters and Baratheons, not without grave consequences, nevermind the fact that they seem to be doing a pretty good job of getting themselves killed without any involvement of his.

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But do you think by making all these plans that blow it in his face secures his rule? Will he not ultimately look the fool with half his family dead because of what people think were his fucked up ploys?

Besides the reader does anyone really know what these plans are, or that he has, in fact any? The only ones to whom he has told anything are the very people he has put into danger and for all we know what he has told them is complete and utter bullshit.

Meanwhile, he has the majority of his lord's forces tied up in the passes where they can't be used against him or another reason he does not approve off. At the same time if some of those "missions" pay off he gets to reap the rewards while reinforcing that persons loyalty by ostensibly having shown him trust.

ETA his reputation wouldn't be a problem. He doesn't have much to begin with and it would be hard to show that he actually had any involvement.

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He sent Oberyn to KL and Quentyn to Mereen - true enough. But I don't think he's responsible for their stupidity once they arrived at their destination. Both could still live if they made better decisions IMO. 

As for the sandsankes, I have no frigging clue what-so-ever. I wouldn't trust them to run a tap let alone a country. 

I'm not saying it's a bad theory. It would make sense for him to keep troublemakers distracted with pointless missions so he could ensure Dorne didn't succumb to the wills of one of his more aggressive family members. I just don't see him actually sending them to death. Outta the way - sure. 

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Besides the reader does anyone really know what these plans are, or that he has, in fact any? The only ones to whom he has told anything are the very people he has put into danger and for all we know what he has told them is complete and utter bullshit.

Meanwhile, he has the majority of his lord's forces tied up in the passes where they can't be used against him or another reason he does not approve off. At the same time if some of those "missions" pay off he gets to reap the rewards while reinforcing that persons loyalty by ostensibly having shown him trust.

 

Yeah, so far that's fine. But at some point the dust will settle, right? And what then? Everybody will know that Doran send all those people off to die for no gain for Dorne. What then? He will also be left with only one heir that hasn't even come of age. That sounds like a recipe for disaster.

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I'm interested to how sending out the Sand Snakes on the loose will work.   I don't why this SSM registers so vividly.  Someone said how cool and interesting he is and GRRM said "Wait till you meet his daughters."  They don't seem so interesting and cool in AFFC and ADWD...Hopefully that changes.

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Month/2001/02

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He sent Oberyn to KL and Quentyn to Mereen - true enough. But I don't think he's responsible for their stupidity once they arrived at their destination. Both could still live if they made better decisions IMO. 

As for the sandsankes, I have no frigging clue what-so-ever. I wouldn't trust them to run a tap let alone a country. 

I'm not saying it's a bad theory. It would make sense for him to keep troublemakers distracted with pointless missions so he could ensure Dorne didn't succumb to the wills of one of his more aggressive family members. I just don't see him actually sending them to death. Outta the way - sure. 

Oberyn's character was well known. It would seem like a safe bet that badness will ensue. 

Quentyn is a different deal. For one thing Doran hasn't had any contact with him since he was a child. He is an unknown quantity to him. Also did you notice that no one on that mission had any ties to Doran. Besides the journey itself was dangerous. 

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Yeah, so far that's fine. But at some point the dust will settle, right? And what then? Everybody will know that Doran send all those people off to die for no gain for Dorne. What then? He will also be left with only one heir that hasn't even come of age. That sounds like a recipe for disaster.

I don't know. He might be thinking "so far, so good". I also think that he won't be reasonably expecting to have more than five years worth of ruling in him given his health or a decade at best. Meanwhile he is trying to keep Dorne as intact as possible, which in his view means keeping it out of the war as much as possible. In the end he might think the loss of his reputation or even his children a worthy trade.

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I don't know. He might be thinking "so far, so good". I also think that he won't be reasonably expecting to have more than five years worth of ruling in him given his health or a decade at best. Meanwhile he is trying to keep Dorne as intact as possible, which in his view means keeping it out of the war as much as possible. In the end he might think the loss of his reputation or even his children a worthy trade.

If that's the case, he leaves Trystane behind without a family at age, like, probably 20 then. And, I mean, he can't expect to keep Dorne out of the war doing what he is doing. It takes only one major fuck up by any of these unpredictable he is sending in all directions to drag Dorne into the war.

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Oberyn's character was well known. It would seem like a safe bet that badness will ensue. 

Quentyn is a different deal. For one thing Doran hasn't had any contact with him since he was a child. He is an unknown quantity to him. Also did you notice that no one on that mission had any ties to Doran. Besides the journey itself was dangerous. 

I can suspend my disbelief enough to accept that Doran sent what could be regarded as a time-bomb to KL in the form of Oberyn.
And when you consider who Quentyn had as escorts you can see how Doran would/could be having a good clear-out. But to what end? It can't be for his own seat, he's becomming increasingly decrepit. There must be a longer game, right? 


I could believe it if it was clearing a path for Arianne or my personal favorite, Trystane Martell. 

From the snippets we get, I can see Trystane being more akin to Doran in that he seems to be a very peaceful and humble boy. If Doran seeks to keep Dorne out of any war for the foreseeable future then I bet Trystane would be his first choice. I can see why Doran would send all the aggressive ones to die and the peaceful one to stay safe. 

When I first read your theory I was shaking my head before the end of the first paragraph. Now, I think you're on to something. Nice topic, thanks for sharing. 

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If that's the case, he leaves Trystane behind without a family at age, like, probably 20 then. And, I mean, he can't expect to keep Dorne out of the war doing what he is doing. It takes only one major fuck up by any of these unpredictable he is sending in all directions to drag Dorne into the war.

I don't see why not. He hasn't commited to anything. Obara has just been sent to hunt an outlaw. Lady Nym can't claim much authority. Tyenne is basically a secret agent. Quentyn can be said to have been sent by lord Yronwood and not Doran. I'm not entirely sure about Arianne, but she may just think that Dorne will move on her word.

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I don't see why not. He hasn't commited to anything. Obara has just been sent to hunt an outlaw. Lady Nym can't claim much authority. Tyenne is basically a secret agent. Quentyn can be said to have been sent by lord Yronwood and not Doran. I'm not entirely sure about Arianne, but she may just think that Dorne will move on her word.

Yronwood is Dorans bannerman, isn't he? Obara's mission isn't going to force Dorne into a war, but Arianne's, Quentyn's, Oberyn's, Tyene's and Nym's might (or might have in the case of those that are already dead).

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I can suspend my disbelief enough to accept that Doran sent what could be regarded as a time-bomb to KL in the form of Oberyn.And when you consider who Quentyn had as escorts you can see how Doran would/could be having a good clear-out. But to what end? It can't be for his own seat, he's becomming increasingly decrepit. There must be a longer game, right? 

I could believe it if it was clearing a path for Arianne or my personal favorite, Trystane Martell. 

From the snippets we get, I can see Trystane being more akin to Doran in that he seems to be a very peaceful and humble boy. If Doran seeks to keep Dorne out of any war for the foreseeable future then I bet Trystane would be his first choice. I can see why Doran would send all the aggressive ones to die and the peaceful one to stay safe. 

When I first read your theory I was shaking my head before the end of the first paragraph. Now, I think you're on to something. Nice topic, thanks for sharing. 

That is my thinking as well. Trystane is being safely ensconced in Sandship away from possible recriminations or outside influence with Doran's administration around him already in place.

The one who doesn't entirely fit is Arianne. I'm inclined to think that she was originaly groomed in Trystane's place, but Doran came to mistrust her after her plot with Myrcella and that she is currently under probation. I'm not entirely buying that she has the final word on whether Dorne will mobilize with Aegon. As for her betrothal with Viserys, it might have been something that Doran kept alive to keep Oberyn quiet, which would explain why he took no steps to build on the perspective.

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Yronwood is Dorans bannerman, isn't he? Obara's mission isn't going to force Dorne into a war, but Arianne's, Quentyn's, Oberyn's, Tyene's and Nym's might (or might have in the case of those that are already dead).

Yronwoods are the house that has mostly contested Dorne's rule with the Martels and have participated in numerous Blackfyre rebellions. They make fine scapegoats.

Oberyn could have forced Doran into war from inside Dorne as easily as he could have from the outside. He might have been less willing to do so while he was in King's Landing and personally in danger.

Lady Nym is both a woman, a bastard and a hothead. She can be easily discredited and may constitute a calculated insult.

It is unlikely that anyone knows who Tyenne is or who she works for.

The only one who may commit  Dorne to anything is Arianne. But as I said before she may only think that her word is te final one and she can still act as a buffer for committing Doran.

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Who else is Doran supposed to send on high-level diplomatic missions, other than close family members?

I'm sure he knows very well that Arianne, Quentyn, Nymeria, and Tyene are being placed in danger.  Indeed, he tells Quentyn, "Make no mistake, this is treason."

The one thing he had no reason to foresee was the Red Viper going off on a mission of his own in Kings Landing.

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Who else is Doran supposed to send on high-level diplomatic missions, other than close family members?

I'm sure he knows very well that Arianne, Quentyn, Nymeria, and Tyene are being placed in danger.  Indeed, he tells Quentyn, "Make no mistake, this is treason."

The one thing he had no reason to foresee was the Red Viper going off on a mission of his own in Kings Landing.

Ravens? The deal between Tyrion and Doran was completed entirely via ravenmail. Indeed there have been many occasions where agreements were conducted entirely through correspondence.

And yet Doran keeps sending potential hostages in dangerous situations, even without any previous contact. Why would he do that?

I'm not sure I understand what you mean about Oberyn. He murdered the previous lord Yronwood and tried to raise Dorne for Viserys. It seems like a safe bet that he would both make and get in trouble.

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Ravens? The deal between Tyrion and Doran was completed entirely via ravenmail. Indeed there have been many occasions where agreements were conducted entirely through correspondence.

And yet Doran keeps sending potential hostages in dangerous situations, even without any previous contact. Why would he do that?

I'm not sure I understand what you mean about Oberyn. He murdered the previous lord Yronwood and tried to raise Dorne for Viserys. It seems like a safe bet that he would both make and get in trouble.

He can hardly send a raven to Meereen.  Nor can a raven be his eyes and ears on the Small Council and in the Great Sept.  And, a raven can scarcely form a judgment about the trustworthiness of Jon Connington.

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He can hardly send a raven to Meereen.  Nor can a raven be his eyes and ears on the Small Council and in the Great Sept.  And, a raven can scarcely form a judgment about the trustworthiness of Jon Connington.

Who better to send on such a mission to gauge a person's trustworthiness then the person that just recently entrusted a person with specific details of her treasonous plot that had the nickname of Darkstar; a name that alludes to the fact that he is diametrically opposed to his famous relative that was renowned for honor/trustworthiness?

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