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Varys and Aegon in Westeros


Curled Finger

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Aegon's shaking things up in the Storm Lands and Dany's surely soon to add to her impressive military muscle with an Iron Born Fleet and Dothraki--lots of Dothraki.   She will head to Westeros sooner rather than later as there are only 2 books left.   With Vary's support and influence it is possible that Aegon could really have a shot at conquering a chunk of Westeros before Dany lands.   Unsure of Aegon's motives, Dany will possibly react badly to the trail he's blazed and move against him.   In that she has the dragons she can be the great equalizer.   If Aegon can't ride or influence a dragon he is pretty much toast.   What happens to Varys at that point?   One would think he has to actually join Aegon, perhaps after the conquest of Kings Landing?   He would definitely want to be close to and advise Aegon.   Is this how Varys will meet his end of his service to the realm?   

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Varys's raison d'etre is to pave the way for Aegon. If Aegon fails, there us no more reason for Varys. So, he will die. 

That is a rather bold claim. Varys makes it very clear that Aegon serves a purpose for him. If Aegon sucks or fails Varys is not going to shoot himself. He'll cut his throat himself, get over the fact that he invested so much time and money in a loser, and ally himself with whoever is left/looks promising.

The chances are not that bad that Varys survives the series, or at least that his ultimate plan of a lasting peace is going to come to fruition in the end.

George has repeatedly remarked that people are prone to misjudge Varys, suggesting that his speech at the end of ADwD was not just talk. Aegon is a means to an end, not the end.

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That is a rather bold claim. Varys makes it very clear that Aegon serves a purpose for him. If Aegon sucks or fails Varys is not going to shoot himself. He'll cut his throat himself, get over the fact that he invested so much time and money in a loser, and ally himself with whoever is left/looks promising.

The chances are not that bad that Varys survives the series, or at least that his ultimate plan of a lasting peace is going to come to fruition in the end.

George has repeatedly remarked that people are prone to misjudge Varys, suggesting that his speech at the end of ADwD was not just talk. Aegon is a means to an end, not the end.

That's a rather bold claim. 

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Varys has always struck me as a constant.  He's been around for a considerable time counseling the mightiest.   Carefully choosing where to peddle his influence.   As a foreigner one has to ask why.  I've bought the Varys is a Blackfyre sympathizer if not an outright Blackfyre thinking.   If this is his ultimate endgame, to put a Blackfyre on the throne, what good is it to back anyone other than Aegon?   Certainly Varys would have to come out in support of Aegon at some point?   I'm failing to see how Varys would be able to continue without Aegon.    

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Varys's raison d'etre is to pave the way for Aegon. If Aegon fails, there us no more reason for Varys. So, he will die. 

While you can say that Varys and Illyrio have invested a lot into Aegon, it's a pretty large leap to say that Aegon is his reason for existing.  Even if he's lied, we know that he's mentioned The Realm a few times, that should at least suggest that Aegon is the only chip he's capable of leveraging to the table.

As to the OP: yes I do think that he'll eventually be at Aegon's side, but that's nothing really.  So Varys moves laterally as Master of Whispers from one King (Aerys) to another (Robert), to another (Joffrey) and yet another (Tommen) and yet, another (Aegon).  He's managed to do that so far without too much trouble.  I think the problem for Varys will be that Aegon has been taught correctly, but may have or develop an ego of his own, power corrupting him possibly.  The other problem is that Dany will be the one that he'll have to really negotiate with or face in the field and with the trouble brewing over Illyrio's betrayal of sorts, who knows how Dany is going to receive any alliance knowing via Tyrion that they've been playing the Game of Thrones themselves.

Varys is one of few people who knows of the tunnels and passages beneath KL.  Sure, Cersei, Jaime and some City Watch now know too, but it'd be highly unlikely to expect those people to be there to advise Aegon should he win the Throne.  That leaves Varys with the upper hand as far as the secrets of the Red Keep go.

As in the Princess and the Queen, I find that Varys is a lot like Larys, he can disappear at-will.  It'd almost have to be pure whim to kill Varys without Varys being aware of any plot to take him hostage or to cast him into the dungeons or to simply execute him by way of an Order coming from Aegon or his advisers.  This does leave the question of Arya dangling heavily but that's another topic.

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By the time Dance of the Dragons starts, I expect Stormlands, Dorne, Reach and Westerlands (since there is no Jaime,Cersei or Tyrion around in the region, Varys will install kidnapped and brainwashed Tyrek Lannister as Lord of Casterly Rock) to support Aegon.

Vale (by that time it will be conquered by mountain clans with Timmett as leader), Riverlands (controlled and run by Brotherhood without Banners with Gendry eventually inheriting leadership after Lady Stoneheart rests in peace, returning them to a noble cause of protecting river folk) and majority of Crownlands (Tyrion's best pal, Bronn, is having some action in Stokeworth and Rosby,for example).

Iron Islands and North will sit this one out. After Euron is killed in Oldtown by Sam and Victarion perishes in Essos, Iron Fleet will be under Dany's command so far away from home, plus there is going to be succession crisis in Iron Islands. Aeron Damphair and Theon will have this Drowned God-Old Gods religious showdown.

North has its own shenaningans with Stannis, Stark-Bolton civil war, the Wall, etc. Maybe after Rickon is secured by Davos, Boltons are defeated and the North relatively secure, Stannis will sail with Manderly fleet to Dragonstone first to retake it from King's Landing forces, then launch his further campaign, but will meet Dany and her invading army there and get killed, slaying a lie of him as Azor Ahai as prophecised? I dunno.

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