NFL Thread II

[Ser Paladin]

In my opinion, there are three divisions guaranteed to produce multiple playoff teams. AFC West, AFC North, and NFC East. I'm going to start the new NFL thread by breaking them down (one at a time).

The NFC East

Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys should take this division, except for two minor risks. First, they have a new head coach. There will be a little lack of continuity in the transition, perhaps a lot. And Wade Phillips is a downgrade from Parcells in overall coaching ability. But, he is less prickly than the Tuna, and a seasoned NFL coach, so I think this turns out to be a wash.

On Defense, the Cowboys should be consistent and careful, without being flashy. Nothing special here, but nothing glaringly bad either. A solid unit.

On offense, the second risk rears its head. Tony Romo came back to earth late last season, and lost his QB coach and OC. The new guy, Jason Garrett, is a first time OC, playing under a defensively minded head coach. Oh, and he was the Dolphons QB coach last year, not a stellar resume. But, the talent here cannot be ignored, and the Cowboys have loads of it. I doubt TO implodes this year, the RBs are good, and the line is, as always, solid. I would not be surprised to see a top-10 offense emerge in Dallas.

2007 Record: 10-6 (with a 11-5 upside if things go well)

Philadelphia Eagles: It's hard for me to put the Eagles after the Cowboys, but until I see McNabb stay healthy all year, it's crazy to trust them. Add in some large renovations on the defensive side, and there are too many question marks.

Defensively, the Eagles are a middle of the pack team. The LBs blitz a lot, and the secondary boasts three pro-bowlers, but the D-Line itself disappoints. Takeo Spikes is a big upgrade here, but enough to make the D an elite one? No.

Offensively, the Eagles were a terror when McNabb was healthy last year. Five games of crazy production before he got injured. But he gets injured often. Westbrook is very good, but also inury prone. The O-Line remains a strength of the team. And Kevin Curtis is no downgrade from Donte Stallworth. When healthy, this offense is top-3/ top-5 in the NFL.

2007 Record: 10-6 (13-3 upside if they are all healthy all year, 6-10 downside with injury to McNabb or Westbrook)

New York Giants: For the intangibles, they are a mess. Coach is on his way out. The team lost its former offensive leader in Barber, while Eli is a deer in the headlights. And the defensive locker room leader is contemplating retirement. Not good.

Offensively, it's the Eli show now. You can't expect Brandon Jacobs to reproduce Tiki's rushing production, so the passing game will need to pick up the slack. Eli, at least, has a decent line, and good weapons in Burress and Shockey (when healthy). Really, all I want to see is a few plays with Brandon Jacobs and Jared Lorenzen in the backfield together, each outweighing the fulback.

Defensively, you have to pray for Strahan to return, and in full health. The secondary is decent, but not much more than that. The LBs are a mixed bag. The strength f the unit is at the line, and without Strahan, you can count on teams neutralizing Umenyora.

2007 Record: 6-10 (8-8 if everything goes right) A rebuilding year in NY.

Washington Redskins: To be honest, the Skins have fallen off my map of teams to keep up on. The Joe Gibbs experiment is a failure. If I were Dan Snyder, I'd be a lot shorter. But I would tab a promising young head coach to come in, tear it down, and rebuild from scratch.

Offensively: Undersized WRs, a second year starting QB with a 53% completion percentage, a brittle starting RB, and a below average line. No.

Defensively: I don't get it, maybe Jaime can explain. Gregg Williams is a good defensive mind, and there is good talent. But they were god-awful last year. What's the upside here? Maybe middle of the pack, and that's it.

2007 Record: 4-12 (and they could be worse)

[Third Knight on the Left]

I'll take the NFC west as a darkhorse in the multiple team race.

[Jaime L]

Ugh.

I've been avoiding taking the bait until now. I've let the digs at the Redskins slide. But everytime I think I'm out they pull me back in. I should just let it go, and I would've, but I hold you to a higher standard Paladin as someone who actually watches the NFC East and is generally pretty reasonable. I'm pretty sure you were just looking for every negative to highlight your belief that they'll be 4-12, which is about as realistic as me highlighting every positive. But seeing as you only saw the negatives, you've left it for me to reflect the other side.

Could they go 4-12? Hey, they went 5-11 last year, sure. But what people don't get is the upside with this team. They could easily go 10-6, like they did two years ago. That would be surprising to anyone who follows the team casually but not the people observing the team over the last 12 months.

Here's the points of contention:

Below Average O-line - Um, what? The O-line was top 3 in sacks allowed in the conference last year, had the second best running attack in conference once they committed to it in the second half of the year, and the Redskins had the fewest turnovers in football (17...for the season) That's with a first year passer. The O-line was incredible last year. Top 3 in football easy. Granted, no Dockery this year, but now, hopefully Kendall fills that void. Talk about how much the Redskins sucked in other phases, but the O-line wasn't part of it.

Brittle Starting RB - Fine. No disagreement there. But our #2 guy is 98% of what the #1 is. He was absolutely destroying teams at the end of last season. If Betts started all 16 games in a season, he'd end it with more rushing yards than any other RB in the division. This isn't even a debate.

Undersized Receivers - Well yeah, but that's kinda missing the point. Ask the Colts or Patriots how much you need big receivers. Also the Skins #2 passing option, Cooley, isn't exactly a small target. I think you're right in that there's not enough quality after Moss and Cooley, but all teams have their weaknesses and this is ours.

A second year starting QB with a 53% completion percentage - Completion percentage is a concern. But by all accounts Campbell should be vastly improved. He's worked his ass off this offseason, working on timing with receivers, shortening his delivery, pouring through film on himself. And he looks like a different QB in preseason. This is also the first year since high-school where he doesn't have to learn a new offensive playbook. I'd be shocked if he's not quite a bit better this year.

Leadership, calmness in the pocket, work ethic, respect of his teammates, he has those in spades. If you've watched him play for any amount of time, you can tell the guy just gets it. Felt this way since he was at Auburn. I think like any second year starter, he'll be awesome at times and he'll look atrocious other times. But Manning and McNabb both made the playoffs in their second year starting, it's not out of the realm of possibility for Campbell.

Defense - what's the upside? The one thing I actually agree with you on was that the defense was beyond atrocious last year. They created 12 turnovers, a number so bad..it defies comprehension. But it isn't hard to see the upside. Landry has shown to be the real deal in camp, and London Fletcher's impact has made this a much smarter defense that's not out of position so much. Gregg Williams, always arrogant, was taken down a couple notches because of last year and he looks to be better. With the return of a healthy Marcus Washington and Shawn Springs, not to mention the emergence of Rocky McIntosh (the only guy who worked harder in the offseason than him was Campbell), add in a Landry and a Fletcher-Baker (two easy and obvious upgrades) and half the defense has been replaced by someone substantially better. Getting rid of Kenny Wright and Mike Rumph alone is worth a TD a game. It's also much deeper than it was both in the secondary (Redskins are the only team to start 4 top 10 picks in the secondary) and linebacking Corps. Randall Godfrey should help.

Granted, the D-Line is probably the team's biggest achilles heel. While they're solid against the run (Griffin's got to stay healthy), no-one's counting on them to be at all useful against the pass. I expect to see a lot of exotic blitzing (like '04), hopefully forcing teams into max protects, but also putting a lot of pressure on the secondary. How they hold up on third downs will go a long way to determining how the Skins season will go.. Last year, generally, this team really wasn't that bad on first and second downs. But they were horrendous on third downs. If Football Outsiders is to be believed, teams that are that much worse on third downs than the other two downs almost always show vast improvement the following year.

Even the most pessimistic pundits in this town (and there are more than a fistful) who deride and sneer at everything the Redskins do...are running out of things to mock. They're left with meaningless comments like: "Gibbs is over the hill!" or "Williams is too arrogant!", but it doesn't tprovide any analysis into how the actual team is looking and progressing. The Skins were a travesty in last year's preseason. This year, they look physical...the defense looks to be swarming, Campbell looks in control. But who really knows, it could all come apart again like last season...or come together like two seasons ago. All I know is I can't wait for September 9th.

[Third Knight on the Left]

Man I do loves me some London Fletcher, the Rams havn't had a good defence since he left.

[Stego]

All I know is I can't wait for September 9th.

You said it. Agree or disagree with anything else, we can all point to this one fact that binds us all.

[Jaime L]

Man I do loves me some London Fletcher, the Rams havn't had a good defence since he left.

Yeah I've been really impressed with what I've seen of the guy so far. Has an impressive life story too.

You said it. Agree or disagree with anything else, we can all point to this one fact that binds us all.

Agreed.

[Darkostar]

I am going to get tickets to the season opener no matter what. Not only is it the day after my birthday, but I could see Sir Joseph Harrington play against the Vikings.

[Ser Paladin]

I've been avoiding taking the bait until now. I've let the digs at the Redskins slide. But everytime I think I'm out they pull me back in. I should just let it go, and I would've, but I hold you to a higher standard Paladin as someone who actually watches the NFC East and is generally pretty reasonable.

Wow. I wasn't trying to cut the legs out of the Skins at all. I save my shots for the Giants and Cowboys, in the division, after living down your way for a few years.

Anyway, to your points...

Kendall may help the line. I missed this news somehow over the last couple days. But they have been looking pretty bad in camp so far, before Kendall's addition.

Cooley is good, but if Samuels is nicked up, Cooley does a lot more blocking and a lot less receiving. And Samuels is nicked up. The rest of the receivers, well, you guys just picked up Todd Pinkston.

I don't hate the Skins. I wasn't trying to highlight all the negatives, but I think Betts is one of the very few positives right now. Cooley, maybe, and the O-Line, if completely healthy and gelled. And they do get the boost of playing the NFC Central, so maybe there is an extra win or two there. But I don't think there is a chance of them being a .500 team this year.

ETA: There are pundits who sneer at Gibbs? I haven't been down there since the 2004 season, but the WJFK guys and your ESPN affiliate were so far up the Skins' rear-ends I was stunned. I didn't think there was a rational media voice at all down there.

[Jaime L]

But I don't think there is a chance of them being a .500 team this year.

That's fine. I look forward to them proving you wrong.

ETA: There are pundits who sneer at Gibbs? I haven't been down there since the 2004 season, but the WJFK guys and your ESPN affiliate were so far up the Skins' rear-ends I was stunned. I didn't think there was a rational media voice at all down there.

In 2004, he was seen as the savior of the franchise, the one man to lead us out of the desert of bad coach after bad coach. After all, he is the most revered, legendary figure in the history of Washington sports. Two bad years and one good year later, a lot of that luster is gone. Everyone takes shots at the guy now, which is fine...I get annoyed at his stubbornness like all the rest...but for what he's meant to this city, for all the joy he has brought to me...he has a lifetime contract as far as I'm concerned.

It's funny how quickly people are to forget.

[Bronn Stone]

I disagree with that in that Dilfer was at least smart enough to know that all he had to do was take what the other team gave him, not force anything, and let his defense win games for him. That's more than Grossman has been able to figure out thus far.

Dilfer was a passenger - Grossman a saboteur. Big difference.

And that Trent Dilfer is, was, and always will be ten times the quarterback that Rexy is.

10 x Grossman = mediocre.

[Robert's Last Bastard]

Man I do loves me some London Fletcher, the Rams havn't had a good defence since he left.

I played against him in college. I would have never thought that he would have such a succesful career at the time (DIII), but he's still gettin' it done. He looked about the same as he does now, he just wasn't that fast in college . I do remember him blindsiding me on a kickoff one time , I'm fairly sure I was concussed (after my head hit the shit turf at John Carroll).

[Kalbear]

I think Washington has a better chance than what Paladin gives him. Campbell's predicted to be a good QB eventually, and usually good QBs make a good jump in their second year. They should be good on offense for the most part. Defense is something of a question, but it might not matter in the NFC East, where the Eagles are the only real factor against them.

[Jaxom 1974]

I played against him in college. I would have never thought that he would have such a succesful career at the time (DIII), but he's still gettin' it done. He looked about the same as he does now, he just wasn't that fast in college . I do remember him blindsiding me on a kickoff one time , I'm fairly sure I was concussed (after my head hit the shit turf at John Carroll).

Where'd you play, RLB?

[Robert's Last Bastard]

Where'd you play, RLB?

Mount Union

edit: I mean, The Mount Union College

It's small ball, but it was fun.

[Jaxom 1974]

Mount Union

edit: I mean, The Mount Union College

It's small ball, but it was fun.

Ah. Very cool. But it was so very nice when my Polar Bears snapped that damn winning streak of yours...if I'm remembering correctly...

[Robert's Last Bastard]

Ah. Very cool. But it was so very nice when my Polar Bears snapped that damn winning streak of yours...if I'm remembering correctly...

Nice! I was there when our home winning streak was snapped by BW. You've never seen such sad faces as the ones in that locker room after the game in 94. Hell, I'm getting old (er). Yer right, I just checked the website, undefeated regular seasons from 95-04. The Polar Bear express. Always talented, but unable to put it all together (when I was there).

edit: fixed dates.

[Jaxom 1974]

Nice! I was there when our home winning streak was snapped by BW. You've never seen such sad faces as the ones in that locker room after the game in 94. Hell, I'm getting old (er). Yer right, I just checked the website, undefeated regular seasons from 95-04. The Polar Bear express. Always talented, but unable to put it all together (when I was there).

edit: fixed dates.

Eh. Early to mid-90's when I was out there, it was always about ONU basketball anyway. Division III FTW!

[Ser Paladin]

I was having such a slow day at work this morning that I thought I'd get all three of these divisions covered by the end of the day. Then things happened. Anyway, on to...

AFC Central

Baltimore Ravens. 13-3 last year, and with most of the pieces returning in 2007. Yes, Steve McNair is another year older, but McGahee is an upgrade over Jamal Lewis, and 10 of 11 starters return on Defense. Hard to see them backslide.

On offense, Steve McNair is in his second year in purple, Willis McGahee joins the fold at RB, and the receiving corps is solid. As good or better at the skill positions. The real question for the team is on the line, as Ogden is dinged up and some personnel has changed. Me, I like the changes, but there is some risk there.

On defense, 10 starters return, losing only Adalius something-or-other. 11.5 sacks aren't easily replaceable, but the unit is still top-5 in the league, even with Thomas' loss. The secondary remains arguably the best in the NFL (with the Broncos and Eagles in the conversation).

2007 record: 12-4. I don't even have an upside/downside here. This team should be like clockwork this year.

Cincinatti Bengals. The other side of the coin from the Ravens. Flashy offense, serviceable defense, peppered with some shady characters. This team feels like the Colts from 2000 or 2002. Lots of points, lots of shootouts, but coming up short in the end. Like the Colts, I think this team needs a coaching change to take the next step, but they are likely playoff bound.

Offensively, you really can't ask for more than talent than Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, Housh, and Rudi Johnson at the skill positions. The line's been dinged up, but they are a very good unit.

On defense, injuries and retirements make 2007 a rebuilding year for the unit. I don't expect them to break the top-20 for defensive teams.

2007 Record: 11-5 (and that's the best they can do, I think. A critical injury will make them into the 2001 Colts that went 6-10 without Edge)

Pittsburgh Steelers. It's a new coach, and one I don't know, so prognosticating the Steelers is tough for 2007. I hate to cop out, but I'm just moving them back a peg on both sides of the ball. Yes, Cowher was worth 1-2 wins just on his own.

Offensively, the Steelers used to be a run first team. From what I hear of Tomlin, he wants to open it up, but I don't think Big Ben is that kind of player. Holmes fits the bill as a big play guy, while Ward is as nice a posession receiver as you could ask for. Willie Parker has a lot of speed, and could make a difference. Really, I'm a bit stumped here, but I think they could inch up and be a decent playmaking offense, rather than three yards and a cloud of dust.

Defensively, they'll be workmanlike. They were 10th in defense last year, or so, and I expect a repeat, maybe a slight slip, as most of the pieces are back.

2007 record: the pieces say 8-8, but I think Tomlin will still be getting comfortable by week 10. Let's call it 7-9.

Cleveland Browns. I like the Browns to improve. I think Quinn will be a good solid QB someday. No gamebreaker, but a mistake-free sort of guy. I think Jamal Lewis has a little left in the tank to help out for one year. And I think the defense will start to improve under Crennel.

OK, the offense is 2 years away from being good. Edwards and Winslow could be the nucleus of a good set of pass catchers, but the rest of them are god-awful. The QB (week 6, at the latest) is a rookie with promise, and the RB is a rental. But the left side of the line looks really really good, for the long haul. They're still bottom-third in 2007, but the pieces are being assembled.

The defense, well, I thought it would be good in 2006, really. While the safeties are good, the CBs are bad. The linebackers have some young potential, but that's it. And the line is "meh" on a good day. It's a good thing Crennel is a defensive genius, because he needs to be to make up for lack of talent.

2007 Record: 4-12, with a 6-10 upside. Yeah, I'm ahead by a year with that upside. They'll be picking in the top 5 at next year's draft.

[grozeng]

Jaime, I am not sure if the Skins have any youngsters on the O-line, but last year they gave a lot of credit to Kendall for mentoring Mangold and Ferguson. The more I think about it, the more I don't like this trade. I think the Jets are throwing a 6th round rookie out there in his place.

I just read he was also the co-captain for the Jets last year and the team's union rep. I think this is going to be bad.

[Jaime L]

Jaime, I am not sure if the Skins have any youngsters on the O-line, but last year they gave a lot of credit to Kendall for mentoring Mangold and Ferguson. The more I think about it, the more I don't like this trade. I think the Jets are throwing a 6th round rookie out there in his place.

I just read he was also the co-captain for the Jets last year and the team's union rep. I think this is going to be bad.

The Skins have a completely veteran offensive-line. 5-10 year guys all and the leaders of the offense. From what you say, I think he'll fit in well with the Dirtbags. Sounds like he was a leader there. If he's anything like Randy Thomas, also from the Jets, I'll be ecstatic.