Tentative timeline

[Ashara Stark]

According to my notes (I don't have the book with me and I cannot check them out):

Arya leaves Sandor and six days after gets to Saltpans and takes the ship (from Arya's lasta chapter in ASoS). As Saltpans is close to Maidenpool, the Titan's daughter could be there two days after, and when Brienne sees her it may have been there for some days (about a week, I would say).

I assume the Elder brother meets Sandor very short after Arya leaves him (either the same day or the day after) because he was almost dying by then. So Bitter could have taken his helm anytime from the day after Arya left Sandor and not too much time after that or anybody else would have stolen the helm to sell it.

In Brienne IV, the Bloody Mummers tell her that after the fall of Harrenhal the survivors split up and took different ways, and specifically that Rorge (and Bitter) went to Saltpans. Considering that they are running from Tarly and want to take a ship to take them to the Free Cities, I don't think they were wandering along the Trindent for weeks. In my opinion it is more likely that they head to Saltpans as fast as they could.

In Brienne III it is said that "the Hound" has crossed the Trident with 100 outlaws but hasn't yet got to Saltpans, and from my notes, that is the first time she hears about "the Hound", so I assume Bitter took Sandor's helm between Brienne II (Duskensdale) and Brienne III (first time at Maidenpool).

Therefore, in my opinion it makes sense to think that Arya left Sandor more or less at the same time Brienne was at Duskensdale (Brienne II), so the timeline would fit for Brienne to see the Titan's daugther when Arya is aboard

[Lupigis]

This has also been discussed in the Brienne chapter topic. I believe that Brienne sees the same ship on a different journey, based on the argument that Happy Ent outlines in this post, and the considerations necessary to sync the Brienne and Jaime timelines mentioned previously in the Brienne reread topic.

Any attempt to shorten the interval between Brienne's chapters will cause massive problems when trying to sync them with Jaime's by the end of the book!

[Happy Ent]

Therefore, in my opinion it makes sense to think that Arya left Sandor more or less at the same time Brienne was at Duskensdale (Brienne II), so the timeline would fit for Brienne to see the Titan's daugther when Arya is aboard

Ashara, thank you for taking this seriously. I don't agree, of course, and have started a thread on the main FfC board for it. It boils down to assessing the time between Oberyn's death (which is around when Arya leaves Sandor, I believe) and Tywin's death (which is around when Brienne leaves King's Landing, two weeks before she arrives at Maidenpool).

[Ashara Stark]

This has also been discussed in the Brienne chapter topic.

OK, I'll take a look at it. Since I lend my book to my sister I haven't read any of the reread threads because I thought she would finish the book soon and I could rejoin the reread and didn't wanted to be "spoiled" before rereading the chapters ... but now I doubt she will finish before june

Ashara, thank you for taking this seriously. I don't agree, of course, and have started a thread on the main FfC board for it.

Thanks to you, Happy Ent for starting this thread and for all your contributions to it I'll take a look at the thread on the main board.

[Errant Bard]

Just one quick about the Arya timeline:

In Arya 2, before she becomes novice, there is this expression "Once in a great while the cook would even use some saffron.". This coupled with description of prayers, exploration or cooking that seem to be a routine make me think she lasted at least one month before being asked to join or leave. I would say it lasted one month exactly actually, since the Faceless Men seem to follow the 30 day moon cycles.

In Arya 2, page 326 of Voyager hardcover, it is said "the moon turned and turned again" after she became novice. We know later that the moon has a 30 day cycle. So that means she was a novice for at least 2 months.

In her last chapter, page 506 of Voyager edition, she tells us about her life as cat. She says she stays at the temple every black moon three days of every thirty. Each time she comes back, she has to tell the kindly man three new things she learned, and she lists some examples, while clearly hinting that's not everything she did report.

There are 7 definitive things she mentions: three new words, sailor's tales, three new japes, three riddles, tricks of the trades, and secrets. We also learn later that the Kindly Man said the knife skill was good to know, hinting that was another of the things she learned.

The way it's written strongly suggests that all these things were reported on different times. That would make Cat exist for at the very minimum 8 months and some weeks before she asks Dareon where Sam went. If you put her meeting with Sam less than one month after she becomes Cat, it means she took 8 months before asking "What happened to your brother [...] He said he was supposed to sail on the Lady Ushanora". To me this question sounds really like Sam departed not so long ago. Although Dareon had time to renew his wardrobe, he was still singing for the whores, too.

So, to me, this would mean:

-February 18 (taking this as baseline) Arya arrives in Braavos.

-March 19 Arya become novice

-May 19 Arya becomes Cat.

-Around January 300 Arya meets Sam

-February 19-March 18 year 300 (Depending on when the new moon occurs) Arya kills Dareon and becomes blind.

I don't really know if meeting Sam so late does add up with the rest of the story tho, but in any case, there is at least 3 months between her arrival and their meeting, and Sam didn't likely wait more than a month for The Lady Ushanora. This makes Sam leave Eastwatch mid April at the Earliest, and even later if it's possible.

[lokisnow]

So, does that mean that the Cat of the Canals chapter covers the longest span of time of any chapter in all of aSOIAF so far? It would seem that most everyone else in AFFC ends at about the same time, but Arya is significantly ahead of the rest of the timeline?

I'm a bit confused, I don't agree that Sam meets Arya almost a year after she's been in Braavos. I was thinking Sam met up with Arya not long after she became Cat in May?

I presumed that the Sam chapter in which Aemon dies begins at about the same time the Cat of the Canals chapter begins.

[lokisnow]

here's kinda how I had the timelines roughed out, any problems to point out would be appreciated in helping me keep the plot straight in my head.

The long chunk of non-overlapping POVs in the middle is to get some time elapsing into the story, that and to keep my head from hurting too much trying to sort out AFFC (it'll probably make more sense in conjunction with ADWD), Arya seems to take more than a year for her timeline, but Cersei could be conceived of going through about four months or less. Maybe she'll rot in jail for a year or two before getting a trial.

Sansa XVIII (ASOS), The Prophet (AFFC)

Tyrion XXXII

Sansa XIX

Jon XXV, Arya XXVII (ASOS), Davos IX, Jaime VII (ASOS)

Tyrion XXXIII

Jon XXVI, Jaime VIII, The Kracken's Daughter

Sansa XX

Tyrion XXXIV

Jon XXVII, Arya XXVIII, Jaime IX

Samwell IV (ASOS), The Iron Captain

Jon XXVIII, Tyrion XXXV, Brienne I (AFFC)

Samwell V, Cersei I (AFFC), The Drowned Man, The Captain of the Guard.

ASOS epilogue, Jon XXIX, Sansa XXI, Cersei II

AFFC prologue, Jaime X (AFFC), Brienne II

Sansa XXII (AFFC), Samwell VI (AFFC), The Soiled Knight

Arya XXIX (AFFC), Cersei III

Jaime XI, Brienne III

Samwell VII, Cersei IV

The Queenmaker

Arya XXX, Alayne {Sansa XXII} I, Brienne IV

Cersei V

Brienne V

Samwell VIII

Jaime XII

Cersei VI

The Reaver

Jaime XIII, Brienne VI

Cersei VII

Jaime XIV

Cat of the Canals {Arya XXXI}, Samwell IX

Jaime XV, Cersei VIII, Brienne VII

Alayne {Sansa XXIII} II, The Princess in the Tower

Cersei IX

Brienne VIII

Cersei X

Jaime XVI, Samwell X

[Errant Bard]

Thing is, we don't know exactly when Arya meets Sam.

She for sure had already the time to sympathize with a lot of people, learn to use her finger knife, and learn a lot about Braavos life at night.

That's one reason why I would not put Arya meeting Sam in her first month of being Cat.

The other reason is the way she asks Dareon about Sam afterwards. I don't think she would even remember Sam if 8 months or more had passed since their meeting, and I don't believe Dareon would still be singing for the whores after 8 months. Yet, he obviously now has somewhere to call home, and a lot of different good clothes.

That's why I estimated the time between Sam's departure and Dareon's death to be 1 or 2 months at max.

But it could really be at anytime after Arya became streetwise. So, between 1 and 7 months after Arya became cat, your pick.

Remember also that the Crow's trio stayed a long time in Braavos before booking a ride on the Lady Ushanora. You see that in the Sam chapters, when he complains about Dareon, about the life they have, about Dareon complaining about the baby, etc. Dareon is already totally used to life there when Sam leaves.

Arya, like Dany in the previous book is nearly a standalone PoV in AFFC, so Synchronizing it is not that important. I would still put Arya XXXI as very last chapter to happen, tho, since it's clear she has been in Braavos for a little less than a year by the time it happens. As a matter of fact, considering my pet Theory than FM are very calendar based, the time she gets blind might be the anniversary of her joining the FM, even if it looks like something that has to do with her killing the Night's watch deserter.

[Happy Ent]

This makes Sam leave Eastwatch mid April at the Earliest, and even later if it's possible.

Which, of course he cannot, because when Sam leaves the Wall, there still has been no news of Tywin's death. Since I cannot see how that information could (or even should) be kept from the Night's Watch and Stannis entire court, Sam can leave the wall no later than two, maybe three weeks after Tyrion fled.

Tyrion is imprisoned sometime in the middle of January (actually, I am pretty confident I have the correct date in the timeline, plus/minus a few days). Between Oberyn's and Tywin's deaths, there is only a single Jaime chapter in Sword (where Brienne receives Oathkeeper), and nothing really happens in King's Landing in that whole period. The Dorne timeline gives us a better estimate (since we have chapters receiving the news of both), but I don't think there are more than four weeks where Tyrion sits in the black cells and awaits his execution.

This gives us an unfortunate hole in Sam's storyline.

The mystery is confounded by the fact that when Sam finally arrives in Oldtown, there is a good argument to be made for being April (but we know not which year), based on the Seneschal. I forget the quote, and it's inconclusive either way. GRRM would need to clean up details about the academic year at the Citadel for us...

[Errant Bard]

About Sam's arrival at oldtown: I didn't catch the reference to the current month, however, there are some other references:

Quote the captain of the Huntress, the galley the Cinnamon Wind encounters when arriving at Oldtown:

Hundreds of their ships afflict us now, sailing out of the Shield Islands and some of the rocks around the Arbor. They have taken StoneCrab Cay, the Isle of Pigs, and the Mermaid's Palace, and there are other nests on Horseshoe Rock and Bastard's Cradle

[...]

Till then, the best we can do is guard the sound and wait for the bitch queen in King's Landing to let Lord Paxter off his leash.

With the estimation of May 3 for the Ironborns victory at the Shield Islands, and considering the time it would have taken them to reorganise, conquer other Islands, devise plots like infiltrating as Tyroshi merchants, and the fact that the fall of Cersei is not known yet, it would put Sam arriving in Oldtown roughly at the beginning of June, maybe later, depending on how far we can push the last Cersei chapter (and consequently, how much we can stretch Jaime's travel times).

For now, I'd say something between June 1 and June 15 is a safe bet, until I reread Jaime's and Cersei's chapters.

To sync it with the Wall not having news of Tywin (tho maybe it's just Jon and Stannis keeping the info to themselves) we would have to make the Journey from Eastwatch to Braavos last something more than one month, then decide Sam stayed waiting for a ship to Oldtown for one month again, then the travel to Oldtown took another month.

Of course, this makes Arya ask Dareon about Sam 8 months after she last sees him, but it is not a real hole, albeit a bit weird. Unless the question was just a cover to have him admit he was a deserter, kinda like Jaqen made Pate say he was a thief. (and in that case, it really makes the theories about why Arya kill him change, from personal to Faceless Men graduation exam, but that's not the place)

Edit: About Jaime's synchro, relative to Brienne. Jaime VIII has to happen at roughly the same time as Brienne last (VII). Uncat was at Fairmarket when Brienne was captured (killing Ryman Frey) and comes back from it in one night, with Robb's crown, just before the trial. Seems Brienne is at the moment a mere two days away from Jaime, yet Jaime did not see her coming during the days he spent after learning of Fairmarket, makes you wonder what Brienne really shouted. But anyway, this makes Brienne VII jump from 28 of april to may 18 more or less one day, since we don't want Jaime recieving the message from Cersei before the Ironborns took the Shield Islands, and thus cannot make his chapters happen earlier.

[Archmaester Marwyn]

According to your timeline, it passed 5 and a half months between crowning Euron and conquering Shield Isles. Euron was never patient and he had the whole fleet in Pyke, so he probably left Iron Isles in 2 weeks after Kingsmoot and voyage took about a month and battle itself took 1 day. Dunno if "The Reaver" should be earlier or "The Drowned Man" should be later but that just doesnt seem right.

[Happy Ent]

Dunno if "The Reaver" should be earlier or "The Drowned Man" should be later but that just doesnt seem right.

It sure doesn't. But it's the best I can do.

The Prophet plays before the Red Wedding. We know this (I forget why). That's November. Here, the Prophet calls for a kingsmoot "when the moon has drowned and come again" or some such thing. Since we know about lunar phases, that makes the Kingsmoot happend in December or so. (I am sure I have laid out the reasoning in my Timeline sections of the Ironborn discussions.) That fixes everything up to The Drowned Man in time. For The Reaver we have a Cersei chapter and some other details.

Remember that this was all originally planned as a long prologue and got reshuffled. Actually, I am sure the first Ironborn chapters were supposed to go into Storm, but GRRM decided to trim them from that book so as not to introduce new plotlines and characters when the rest came to a finale. In effect, it's a lot of action that belongs somewhere else and GRRM does everything he can to hide these holes, short of lying.

But any concrete suggestions as to what to change are certainly welcome! My "hunches" are as uncomfortable as yours.

[lokisnow]

According to your timeline, it passed 5 and a half months between crowning Euron and conquering Shield Isles. Euron was never patient and he had the whole fleet in Pyke, so he probably left Iron Isles in 2 weeks after Kingsmoot and voyage took about a month and battle itself took 1 day. Dunno if "The Reaver" should be earlier or "The Drowned Man" should be later but that just doesnt seem right.

Not sure if this is directed at me or at Happy Ent, but for one, I avoided organizing AFFC chapters for a long time because it's just such a nightmare in terms of continuity (this is why I'm not a script supervisor). Here's my explanation. Euron's also not a fool. If he's going to take the vast majority of the Iron fleet raiding then they need time to lay in supplies, coordinate logistics and train navigators on how to work the stars so they can raid by surprise from the open sea rather than in the sight of the coast. He's also got a lot of beaurocratic work to do. he has to send ravens and let the news out of his claim and of the Kings Moot, he's got to take control of (or establish) an Iron Islands information network on what is going on with the rest of the seven kingdoms so he can properly defend the Iron Isles. He's got to put down any minor rebellions and meet with lords one on one to win them over and quell any uncertainties--demonstrate his leadership abilities. Euron terrifies me because I think he's supremely patient. He waited a long time for the oppurtune moment to take down his brother and take power.

I had always thought the order of death went Robb, Balon, Joffrey--reverse order of the leeches. However, in Catelyn XXIII Robb learns that Balon Greyjoy is dead, so you're right, The Prophet chapter happens closer to Catelyn XXIII. I'm not sure when the Red Wedding occurs in relation to Joffrey's wedding, but I didn't think they were two months apart, more like two weeks apart, in my mind.

So if Aeron calls the Kingsmoot two months after Balon's death, that puts it sometime in January or early February, rather than at the end of the year (when the wedding and vote for Lord Commander seem to be happening one after the other). This would also bring the Iron Islands timeframe into the same general zone as the rest of AFFC (rather than being hideously behind until the Reaver chapter). Does anyone know which chapter Cersei or Jaime or Sansa find out about Euron? that would give us a timeframe to fix the Iron Captain and Drowned Man pretty firmly to, with Ashas' chapter happening sometime in the middle between Prophet and Iron Captain.

I was also under the impression that the voyage from Eastwatch to Braavos was insanely long, more like two months than one month (riding against those Melisandre winds?).

Add a month for delay in Braavos when Sam encounters Arya after she's been there about three-four months or so, having been Cat for one or two.

I have no problem with Arya not confronting Daeron for months. In fact I think it makes more sense with her not interacting with him for quite awhile. I also really like the idea of Arya's chapter ending around the one year anniversary of her arrival in Braavos.

[Happy Ent]

I'm not sure when the Red Wedding occurs in relation to Joffrey's wedding, but I didn't think they were two months apart, more like two weeks apart, in my mind.

That's one of the things I wanted to review, so let me take the opportunity.

Chapter LIII Tyrion

Tyrion, interrupted in a loveless dinner with Sansa, where the pease are overcooked, is summoned to Lord Tywin's solar:

"What's happened?" Tyrion asked.

His father offered him a roll of parchment. Someone had flattened it, but it still wanted to curl. "Roslin caught a fine fat trout," the message read. "Her brothers gave her a pair of wolf pelts for her wedding."

This would be... what? As fast as the Raven flies from the Twins to the Red Keep. A better mind needs to do the math, but let us say RW+2, two days after the Red Wedding. (Somebody really should compile a list of plausible distances by raven between the various rookeries.)

The next King's Landing chapters then go Tyrion–Sansa–Tyrion–Jaime, centering about Joffrey's death (JD). Nothing of importance happens between RW+2 and JD, and we get no feeling of how much time passses. Maybe as little as just a couple of days.

Chapter LIV Davos

"You are certain?" he asked.

"I am not seeing the body, no, Your Kingliness," said Salladhor Saan. "Yet in the city, the lions prance and dance. The Red Wedding, the smallfolk are calling it.

Next Davos chapter, LXIII:

Your Grace." Davos stepped forward. "Lady Melisandre saw it true. Your nephew Joffrey is dead."

That's JD+1 (?), and after that, Stannis sets sail for Eastwatch, a huge journey by sea. Lots of Wall chapters in Storm are yet to happen.

So far, JD could happen just within days of RW. No information either way. The problem is the Arya chapter, after she gets knocked out at the RW. Sandor and Arya travel to a little village, and stay for at least a fortnight.

Might be we should stay here awhile," the Hound told her, after a fortnight. He was drunk on ale, but more brooding than sleepy. "We'd never reach the Eyrie, and the Freys will still be hunting survivors in

the riverlands.

Travelling to that village from the Twins, then leaving and travelling to the crossroads inn, takes another two weeks at least, if not three. When they finally reach that inn, Joffrey is dead and Sandor has left Harrenhal.

That's all I can find. So lets say JD= RW+three weeks?

This moves the Red Wedding into December (instead of November, as I insisted earlier). The Prophet still plays in November, I am sure, because Euron can die no later than a full week before the Red Wedding.

Robb's party, outside Hag's Mire, en route to the Twins, talks to the captain of the Myraham:

"Aye, Your Grace." He licked his thick lips nervously. "My last port of call afore Seagard, that was Lordsport on Pyke. The ironmen kept me there more'n half a year, they did. King Balon's command. Only, well, the long and the short of it is, he's dead."

"Balon Greyjoy?" Catelyn's heart skipped a beat. "You are telling us that Balon Greyjoy is dead?"

The same news, of course, that the Prophet gets in the first chapter of Feast.

Still, with Balon's death in the last days of November, the Prophet could have called a Kingsmoot in January:

Seek the hill of Nagga and the bones of the Grey King’s hall, for in that holy place when the moon has drowned and come again we shall make ourselves a worthy king, a godly king.â€

All we know is that the moon is crescent-shaped

It was long after dark by the time the priest espied the spiky iron battlements of the Hammerhorn clawing at the crescent moon.

But whether it's waxing or waning? Let's say it is waxing, to buy us some time. The moon "drowning" must mean a new moon. That would be maybe 25 days away. THen "comes again" means full moon? Another 15 days. That puts the Kingsmoot 40 days after the Prophet, in January.

Sounds good to me...

[The Adequate Jon]

(Somebody really should compile a list of plausible distances by raven between the various rookeries.)

I came up with these distances based on the length of the Wall equalling 100 leagues. I don't know how fast ravens fly. Distances are in leagues.

.................KL....SS....CR....HG....RR..Pyke.Eyrie.Twins....WF..Wall....WH.

..OT

King's Landing....0...310...270...250...190...310...210...270...530...720...400...360

Sunspear........310.....0...500...350...500...600...510...590...850..1010...710.

.380

Casterly Rock...270...500.....0...200...160...130...330...250...510...730...430...270

Highgarden......250...350...200.....0...290...320...420...400...680...890...570.

.110

Riverrun........190...500...160...290.....0...140...170...110...390...600...280.

.390

Pyke............310...600...130...320...140.....0...290...160...390...600...320.

.400

Eyrie...........210...510...330...420...170...290.....0...150...340...500...200.

.530

Twins...........270...590...250...400...110...160...150.....0...280...490...180.

.500

Winterfell......530...850...510...680...390...390...340...280.....0...210...130.

.780

The Wall........720..1010...730...890...600...600...500...490...210.....0...320...99

White Harbor....400...710...430...570...280...320...200...180...130...320.....0...670

Old Town........360...380...270...110...390...400...530...500...780...990...670.....

[Happy Ent]

Adequate Jon, that is more than adequate! Great work. Now look at Ashara's message to see how fast the raven flies, recompute, and put the whole thing into the Distances thread. Pretty please. (Can we get "travel time on foot", "travel time mounted" and "travel time with army" from somebody as well? I am sure most RPG source books have that kind of information.)

[lokisnow]

That puts the Kingsmoot 40 days after the Prophet, in January.

Sounds good to me...

Me too, it brings the Iron Island chapters (except for the Prophet, and maybe Kracken's Daughter) into the same timeframe as the rest of AFFC

I think part of the problem untangling AFFC is that many chapters that would have indicated more time elapsed are missing, because obviously they're in ADWD

And that distance chart is awesome.

We should make a landmark events timeline too, something that we can relate the 'dates' (you keep mentioning months, but I have no frame of reference for that other than Joffrey's wedding, I'd like to see 'when' all these take place) to the different chapters, such as this (for AGOT):

Other's attack beyond the wall

direwolves found

Bran 'falls'

Dany married

Death of Lady

Hand's Tourney

Catelyn arrests Tyrion

Tyrion's trial

Viserys crowned

Wights attack

King Robert dies

Eddard arrested

Eddard's execution

Robb crowned King

Birth of the Dragons/Death of Drogo

The above aren't in order, but it's been a while since I read the book. And I'm trying to limit it to really major events that cause ripples.

[Archmaester Marwyn]

In ACOK, Sansa III, Tyrion tells Sansa that Robb defeated Ser Stafford in Oxcross 6 days ago and they get the message "this morning". So, if we assume that the one who sent the message needed 1 day to get to the nearest maester, it would mean that raven needs 5 days to fly from Oxcross to KL. I'm too lazy to check it myself but that way we can find speed of Westerosi ravens.

Also, in Arya chapter few chapters before Arya states that there are wails in Wailing Tower in Harrenhal when northern wind goes through fissures in stone, so we can assume that either sometimes or all the time raven had a good wind.

[The Adequate Jon]

Where is Oxcross? I can't find it on any of my maps. I think we need a lot more examples like Marwyn's to nail down a raven's speed. I want to assume 100 leagues per day (300+ miles per day), but 5 days from Oxcross to KL (assuming Oxcross is somewhere near the west coast) would mean ravens are much slower. Of course, we don't know if the message was sent directly from Oxcross to KL or if it first went to Casterly Rock and then on to KL.

[Happy Ent]

A useful finding: in the last chapter, when Sam arrives in Oldtown, news that the Redwyne fleet has been released from Dragonstone has not yet reached Oldtown.

Till then the best we can do is guard the sound and wait for the bitch queen in Kings Landing to let Lord Paxter off his leash.

A fortnight before this chapter, Ironmen attacked a Tyroshi trader "in the straits", presumably the Redwyne straits.

I cannot believe that the Ironmen began raiding this far South before taking the Shield Isles, so the Ironborn timeline must be this:

• [#]Capture Shield Isles
  [#]Attack Tyroshi ship in the Redwyne straits
  [#]Sam arrives
  

Between 1 and 2 I suggests at least two weeks pass, maybe four.

Here is the corresponding Kings Landing timeline:

• [#]Marge receives letter: the Reach is under attack from the Ironmen!
  [#]Same day: Cersei VII, council meeting
  [#]Next day(?): Ser Loras leaves for Dragonstone
  [#]A few days later (?): Ser Loras arrives at Dragonstone, taking the castle the same day.
  [#]Same day or next day: The Redwyne fleet leaves
  [#]A few days later(?): Cersei VIII, Aurane tells Cersei and Marge about Ser Loras
  

My point is that the interval between Cersei VII and Cersei VIII can be two weeks at most. Loras is in a lot of haste, and Dragonstone cannot be more than a few days away, by sea. The castle falls on the same day, and Redwyne (IIRC) leaves immediately.

So when does the Reach send its letter to Kings Landing, the one that starts off Cersei VII? I always thought it was when the Shield Isles fall, and that works with really slow ravens. If the Isles fall on (say) May 1, then the letter reaches Marge no later than May 15, and Redwyne can leave on May 21, news of his departure would get back to the Reach by June 10. If Sam arrives just before that, the Ironborn have had 40 days of raiding south of the Shield Isles, which sounds reasonable.

This posits slow ravens. An alternative explanation is that the Reach does not send its letter of distress right when the Shield isles fall, but weeks later, when the Ironborn really begin to threaten the Mander and Oldtown.

In any case, Sam arrives in Oldtown in June, so he met Arya in May. (He arrived in mid-April.)