78 replies to this topic

[Szar]

They don't have to be speaking in calender years -- they could simply mean that ten years worth of time (i.e. 3650 days) has passed.

[SFDanny]

Szar, on Feb 17 2009, 05.58, said:

They don't have to be speaking in calender years -- they could simply mean that ten years worth of time (i.e. 3650 days) has passed.

Yes, they could, but have you seen any indication that anyone outside of maesters keeps track of days to this precision? We are talking about Jon Snow in a piece of inner dialog and Mormont in a conversation with Tyrion. What would point to either character counting days for nine and ten years? While not conclusive evidence, it is a good marker to show the year has turned from 298 to 299. When between the two chapters this takes place is still very vague.

Edited by SFDanny, 21 February 2009 - 01:42 AM.

[Stalker]

SFDanny, on Feb 17 2009, 15.16, said:

Yes, they could, but have you seen any indication that anyone outside of maesters keeps track of days to this precision? We are talking about Jon Snow in a piece of inner dialog and Mormont in a conversation with Tyrion. What would point to either character counting days for nine and ten years? While not conclusive evidence, it is a good marker to show the year has turned from 298 to 299. When between the two chapters this takes place is still very vague.

I actually find this a problem for all the date calculations here. As you say, it is really only the maesters that are 'scientific' about things. A claim of "ten years" could be anything from 7 to 13, as I see it. It just expresses a feeling of roughtly a decade.

[SFDanny]

Stalker, on Feb 21 2009, 08.19, said:

I actually find this a problem for all the date calculations here. As you say, it is really only the maesters that are 'scientific' about things. A claim of "ten years" could be anything from 7 to 13, as I see it. It just expresses a feeling of roughtly a decade.

I agree that one has to be careful with what can be approximations instead of exact dates but in this case we can throw that possibility out with Mormont's quote. He is clearly marking the upcoming transition from the ninth to the ten year of summer. There is no "about" involved. The only question is does he do so based on the calendar year or the exact date of when the current summer started - and with his quote it really doesn't matter which you choose because it takes place in 298 (Tyrion's presence on the Wall tells us this for certain) and he is looking at the turning of the year to 299 or the 10th anniversary of summer's start, both of which we know are coming up in the text.

With Jon's quote, I'd say it fits too neatly into the time frame for the turning of the year to 299 to not be a marker of that event. Based on Rickon's name day and the presence of the comet in the sky, I think we can say the turning of the year takes place before Bran's last chapter, before Deanerys' sacrifice of Mirri Maz Duur and the birth of her dragons, and before the ACoK prologue. The question is how long before these events does it take place? I'd suggest that marker in Jon 7 AGoT points to it happening before the events of that chapter take place. Could I be wrong? Of course, but I don't think so. If Jon's thoughts were contradicted by other markers, I'd buy into the estimation scenario, but I don't see them. Now, EB, bases his time line on many factors, and he may have great reasons to reject this shift of time by about a month or more, but I'm only trying to contribute with things I see as significant in trying to tie down this mess. As I said, take it for what it's worth, but I'd bet this tells us the year changes shortly before Jon 7.

[Errant Bard]

Ok, modified the timing of Dany's chapters. The boats that carry the news go real fast now, too (twice as fast as Columbus' galleys when he crossed the Atlantic Ocean now , actually), but it's needed to have the news reach barely before the purple wedding happens.

Ironically, that makes the battle of Meereen happen almost simultaneously as the battle of the Blackwater.

[dracayr]

weren't aFfC and aDwD intended to fill the five-year gap between aSoS and tWoW, because otherwise, grrm would have had to rely on flash-backs. But aFfC apparently covers less than one year, not five years? Did I misunderstand something here??

dracayr

[Errant Bard]

They weren't intended to fill but to replace, the timeline for the flashbacks got scraped and doesn't mean anything anymore.

[Markus]

Errant Bard,

This timeline is a very impressive piece of work. It's certainly appreciated as a useful reference tool.

I have noticed though that the dates of the events at the Wall seem a bit out of sync with the events in King’s Landing. You propose that Jon was elected Lord Commander on March 24 and that Sam’s first chapter in AFfC -- in which he discusses Jon’s as yet unsent letter to Tommen -- takes place on April 8. You also suggest that Cersei’s fourth chapter in AFfC -- in which she informs the Small Council of Jon’s letter and plots to assassinate him -- takes place during March 8, before Jon’s and Sam’s chapters.

Obviously it should be impossible for Cersei to have Jon's letter and know he is the new LC before Jon had been elected and had sent the letter.

[Errant Bard]

Thank you Markus, I'll look into it. If I recall, the problem with the Wall timeline is the departure of Stannis from Dragonstone, since even as it is now, he would already almost need motorboats to get there this fast, I'll have to look if the Cersei chapter can happen later, but if I remember, too, we have a fair estimate of when Stannis left in relation to that chapter too.

Let me say this though: while AGOT is really nice for the timeline consistency, if we forget Tyrion's rocket ride from the wall to the Inn and Cat getting lost for months on a travel the whole court did in 14 days, AFFC is a mess. Sam's chapters simply cannot sync with the other events, pregnancy times don't add up with the other objective time measuring info, and GRRM purposefully stays awfully vague about anything timeline related. Looking at it like that, I can really see that AFFC is a mishmash of stories that were not meant to be duct-taped together like that.

[Markus]

Errant Bard, on Aug 1 2009, 21.29, said:

If I recall, the problem with the Wall timeline is the departure of Stannis from Dragonstone, since even as it is now, he would already almost need motorboats to get there this fast

Well, we know at least that Stannis had good winds, thanks to Melisandre. I would suppose that an implausibly swift sea-journey with the help of magic is still better than time-travelling ravens. ;)

[Batts]

I just wanted to say great job and that I wholeheartedly agree with your assessment of AFFC.  While I liked the book as far as what happened, something seemed quite out of sync as I was reading it.  I went so far as to read all the Iron Island and Dorne chapters first during a re-read just to make more sense of it.  Again, great job Errant Bard.

[Balerion the Cat]

Another odd thing regarding ASoS is that, while Roose Bolton and Jaime leave Harrenal the same day, say 8/12/299, Roose arrives at the Twins before the Red Wedding (say 23/12/299) while Jaime arrives in KL after the Purple Wedding (say 3/1/300), which is quite a strange journey timing (not at AGoT Tyrion/Catelyn level, surely, but...).

I know Jaime arrival in KL was first intended to happen before the Purple Wedding, but GRRM's timeline has not been corrected and Jaime's complain about the road they've taken avoiding the King's Road sounds a little bit inadequate as an explanation.

[Happy Ent]

I want to dispute the 12th and 13th of January 300.

After Jaime sends off Brienne in Storm, Jaime IX, considerable time passes before Tywin is killed. We know that Brienne spends some time in Kings Landing, “She had lingered too long and learned too little in the city.” For example, she has visited the harbour, “hunts down” Sansa’s chamber maid Brella. I think we are talking about days, maybe as much as two weeks.

Brienne then leaves the city, and only at Duskendale (many days of travel) does she learn of Tywin’s death.

So Tywin cannot have died on the day after Brienne receives Oathkeeper.

[Errant Bard]

True enough, and another thing to change. I hope to have a small program that will take care of all the interdependencies easily ready soon to rewrite the whole thing.

[rip97000]

have you been updating the first post with the most recent version?

[Errant Bard]

Well, depends, it lacks correction on the Jon sending his letter thing, otherwise it's as up-to-date as can be, but that's not saying much: the computerized analysis reveals a lot of inconsistencies and isn't nearly done. I actually have not much time to devote to it, either, so...

[Mark3]

Not sure how much this thread is re-visited, but I think it's relevant and should maybe  be posted in the general discussion section...Anyway, I thank EB for doing all this legwork and giving us a good jumping-off point for the timeline.  

I did notice another inconsistency...In AFFC Cersei 4, she discusses Jon Snow's election as Lord Commander of the NW, so that chapter cannot possibly take place before the Jon chapters 11 & 12 from ASOS.

The more I think about, the more I think the only way the timeline can make sense is if the Cersei/Jaime/Brienne AFFC chapters take place over a longer stretch of time then they appear to.  Otherwise there are paradoxes.  Perhaps there is a gap of time between Cersei 3 and Jaime 2 (AFFC).  That would involve Kevan lingering (for some reason) in KL for some time after Tywin's funeral and Tommen's wedding, but it's preferable to time paradoxes.

Edited by Mark3, 09 February 2011 - 04:34 PM.

[Timekeeper]

Belated thumbs up, EB. It's a magnificent and very sanity-taxing exercise to get everything together in one piece.

Browsing through it, I think I noticed something that hasn't been caught yet. AFFC Brienne 3 has her visiting Maidenpool on 23/02/300 learning of Lysa's death in the Eyrie, yet the timeline doesn't have her die until 30/03/300 in ASOS Sansa 7. I'm sure Brienne's hidden swordswench powers has her predicting the future.

Edited by Timekeeper, 03 March 2011 - 05:47 AM.

[j52y]

I don't know enough to help, but I just wanted to say good job! This timeline is really cool and helpful.

I had no idea there was this much crossover with A Storm of Swords and A Clash of Kings, or even A Feast for Crows and A Storm of Swords. You'll have a lot of fun ahead of you when A Dance with Dragons comes out...

[Errant Bard]

I was trying to automate the stuff, so I didn't have to deal with those inconsistencies of Sam travelling in the past of Brienne knowing the future and what not but so far it proves to be an exercise in frustration... Not even at the end of ACOK, and I get impossible inconsistencies, and it's going to get worse. (A reason why I didn't correct the stuff mentioned recently, but it's still useful, don't worry)

I'll take a stab at ADWD, no doubt, but I'll read it once first without worrying about timeline, then I'll go chapter per chapter, but it will take some time. In any case, the synchro with AFFC will probably depend on very few events, so that's a good thing.