Plot question, ASOS (Tyrion/Tywin)

[MountainThatRides]

I'm not discounting the theory or saying it's impossible. It's very well-thought-out and, like all the other theories around here, entirely speculative with some interesting points arguing for it; there's nothing wrong with speculation, it's all we have until Martin tells us otherwise. Something tells me that, unlike Jon Snow's parentage or the identity of the Knight of the Laughing Tree, this might be a mystery that persists throughout the series. Unless Varys ever comes clean to Tyrion about it, we may just never know the truth.

My point was that there's certainly enough evidence to argue that Varys had little to do with it, apart from helping Jaime free Tyrion. When I compared Tywin to some other characters it was to convey that Martin likes all of them to have skeletons in their closets; no character is without flaw or shame. It'd make sense for Tywin to be a hypocrite and it's possible that he had banged Shae, left her sleeping and went to the privy where Tyrion found him. I don't much care either way -- Tywin being a whoremonger or Varys engineering the plot both have merit and I'd enjoy either possibility. I just don't know if it's something Martin is ever going to straight out tell us. Maybe during a Q&A following the completion of the series, or something.

[Happy Ent]

Spillover from another thread:

dragging a sleepy Shae into Tywin's room

It would be much easier to take a non-sleepy Shae to the room. He’s done exactly that before. From Feast:

His legs were aching badly by the time he had made the climb. He sent Pod for a flagon of wine and pushed his way into his bedchamber.

Shae sat cross-legged in the canopied bed, nude but for the heavy golden chain that looped across the swell of her breasts: a chain of linked golden hands, each clasping the next.

Tyrion had not expected her. “What are you doing here?” [...] “How did you enter? Show me the hidden door.”

She gave a shrug. “Lord Varys made me wear a hood. I couldn’t see, except . . . there was one place, I got a peep at the floor out the bottom of the hood. It was all tiles, you know, the kind that make a picture?”

So Shae is quite used to being led into various rooms by Varys, including this very one, including by the very same secret passage, and in the same bed. After placing her in the bed, Varys may or may not have asked her to drink a glass of wine poisoned with Sweetsleep.

[raisin]

I don't doubt that Varys intended some kind of confrontation between Tyrion and Tywin. The way he presented the passage is either screaming of "plot device" or he wanted Tyrion to go up there.

I don't think that theory necessitates the drugging of Shae and Tywin, though. Shae seemed awake and sober during the encounter (besides, if Tyrion had found a drugged and unwakeable Shae, as would have been somewhat likely if she'd actually been drugged, how would that have played out?) and didn't offer any excuses to explain away what it looked like, as would have been to her benefit. Seems dubious, at best.

As for Tywin being drugged, this I highly doubt. Martin is a better writer than to just invent some poison after the fact that would cause constipation that is magically relieved at the time of death and also makes people spend hours on the toilet. Why would Tywin need to be on the toilet, anyway? To incapacitate him?

Well, consider Varys was probably aware that Shae was there with Tywin... that's plenty incapacitating. Sure, it turned out they weren't discovered together, but if they had been, Tyrion wouldn't have had his separate confrontations, which I rather liked.

Honestly, it seems like a lot of work and variables when the simpler explanation of "Tywin was with Shae and Varys knew it" seems to do just as much with a whole lot fewer moving parts.

I love the "Tywin was a whoremonger" theories, personally, and hope to see more evidence in the books. I thought it did a lot for the Tywin/Tyrion relationship to show they had more in common than Tywin would ever openly admit, and make what he did with Tysha that much worse. I would hate for that to be subverted with a "everyone was poisoned and Tywin doesn't actually like whores" twist.

[Lord Varys]

Well, many people out there love Tywin to much to admit his faults - or assume Varys is really a sorcerer. In any case, if Shae was drugged, Tywin needed to be drugged, too, or else he would have likely be stumbled upon the girl in his bedroom before Varys's planed scenario would have happened.

But even if Tywin was drugged, it would have been difficult for Varys to get Shae into the bedroom without anybody knowing, or stumbling upon her. And he would need to get her up there a couple of hours before. Some incline Varys might have gotten Shae in through the front door - considering the fact that Tywin's guards were not surprised about her presence - but strongly doubt that, as this would also indicate that Tywin used whores openly - which I doubt, or else Cersei and Tyrion would have been familiar with it.

And even if Tywin used to have whores visiting him in his bedchamber, I heavily doubt he would put Varys in charge of this non-so-covert operation. That sounds like a thing he charge Kevan with, or some of his own men. But to convince Tywin's guards to let him and Shae in, Varys needs to be a familiar sight as Tywin's pimp, or else they would have not let him in, or would have cared to search for Tywin to straighten things out.

[Happy Ent]

I’m not sure about the direction of your argument, LoVa. How do you suppose Tywin got Shae into the room, then? (If you don’t like the idea that Varys got her into the room the same way he has done before?)

[Lord Varys]

Varys possibly could have gotten Shae into the room the same way he had done before, if Tywin had ordered such a thing. That is possible, but not very likely, I think, as I doubt that Tywin would have been content knowing that Varys was eavesdropping on him in his private chambers, or able to send men into his bedroom to assassinate him. If Tywin had known about the secret passage, he would have had removed it.

I only doubt that Varys would have risked the gamble to get Shae into the room without Tywin knowing that she was there - only trusting that making him shit for hours and hours would prevent him, or anybody else from stumbling into his bedroom. One should assume that at least Kevan would visit Tywin at the evening of the day before Tywin would execute his own son.

So it's likely that Tywin took care of getting Shae into his bedroon himself. But Varys certainly had the means to know that Shae was to visit Lord Tywin this evening - even more so, if this wasn't the first she was comforting him. I always took Shae's line about being scared of Tywin as a sign that he had already expected some rather, well, uncomfortable things of her, indicating that this was not the first time she shared his bed.

But one can still assume that Tywin used Varys help to get Shae into the Tower of the Hand without anybody realizing who she was (by disguising her), so that only the guards up would have realized that Lord Tywin was visited by a woman. On the other hand, Tywin was de facto the King of Westeros by then. There is no rational reason to be found why he should take extreme measures to keep this a secret. There was no Aerys, nor a Joanna home at Casterly Rock to protect his not so honorable secrets from. He could do whatever he wanted, no one would dare laugh at him - or would be hurt, or shamed by his actions.

[i assume that Tywin had this tunnel to Chataya's built, and I assume he did so to keep his visits there a secret from Aerys and his court, and Joanna at Casterly Rock.]

[Guest Other-in-Law]

As for Tywin being drugged, this I highly doubt. Martin is a better writer than to just invent some poison after the fact that would cause constipation that is magically relieved at the time of death and also makes people spend hours on the toilet.

Not "after the fact". Two books before.

As fo the tunnel between Chataya's and the stable, our sole source for the claim that it was built by a former Hand who wanted to preserve his appearnce of honour is...Varys. He could have made it all up just to plant seeds of doubt about Tywin. For all we know, the tunnel could have been built by smugglers or some other sort of criminal.

[Alexia]

I love the "Tywin was a whoremonger" theories, personally, and hope to see more evidence in the books. I thought it did a lot for the Tywin/Tyrion relationship to show they had more in common than Tywin would ever openly admit, and make what he did with Tysha that much worse. I would hate for that to be subverted with a "everyone was poisoned and Tywin doesn't actually like whores" twist.

Me too. If you think about it, Tywin never really showed hatred of whores - just of flaunting them or letting them get out of their place. He told Tyrion not to take Shae to court, Alayaya was whipped not for being a whore but in retaliation for the threats against Tommen, and the injunction against whores was issued as a direct response to that. Not because Tywin has some sort of moral thing against whores.

Personally, I think its a wonderfully humanizing detail for Tywin to patronize whores (I really do not believe he has remained chaste since his wife's death) and it adds a fascinatingly creepy detail for him to patronize his son's whore (what is up with THAT!). I would also be disappointed by an explanation that handwaved away all the interesting and complex personality issues with an "oh, he was poisoned, nothing to see here, move along."

[Spring Bass]

it adds a fascinatingly creepy detail for him to patronize his son's whore (what is up with THAT!).

Well, Tyrion is Tywin's son, after all :P . Similar tastes in women, perhaps? Although it would be fascinatingly perverse if Tywin got a secret thrill out of fucking his son's favorite whore.

As for getting Shae in there - why would there be any trouble with just having his guards bring her in there? I mean, it's not like we get a great view of his living habits through the viewpoint characters we have - Tyrion, Jaime, and Cersei were all living apart from him in King's Landing before the events of the books, and in the case of the latter for well over a decade. Moreover, it's not like having guards keep silent is anything new - remember the comment about Renly's guards having "learned to be blind and deaf"?

[PestilencE]

Excuse the bump.

We kinda brushed on this topic in the recent underrated/overrated characters. Here's what corbon had to say. It totally convinced me.

Fair enough.

OTOH it is extremely common that those with 'secret' failings are frequently very publicly 'against' those very things they themselves are guilty of.

I'm not a Tywin fan personally - as a man that is. Clearly he was one of the most effective Hands ever, in part, IMO, because of his very failings.

He was clearly a cruel bully, even if very effective.

And IMO, what we see of him, I mean 'we, the readers' see of him rather than just looking through the POV eyes, is exactly the sort of character that is highly likely to have deep secret flaws - the authority and power is untempered by compassion or love and seems driven by very deep insecurities.

His reputed love of Joanna may have been real, and may have made a huge difference in the way everything turned out if she had lived.

But even if it was real, in a character devoid of compassion or love since she died over 20 years ago, with near total power and near unlimited wealth, it seems unlikely to have maintained 'purity' over all that time. Maybe in a Ned-like character it could have, where love, compassion and morality temper strength. But not in a character so utterly ammoral, calculating and prone to over the top reactions to potential personal loss of prestige or 'face'.

Occam's Razor on this one. Shae was naked (effectively) in his bedchamber because Tywin was using her. And perhaps because it was a weakness he recognised in himself that he was so hard on Tyrion about it.

But it is possible that he did not know she was there, yet. Extremely foolish of her to be wearing the Hand's Chain in that case IMO, given his known attitudes and propensities. I don't think either Shae or Varys are (were) quite that stupid.

Edit: I guess in summary it depends on how you see Tywin. We, for example, appear to see almost opposite things. Your description sounds to me like Ned, not a man who deliberately put Lorch and Clegane in charge of removing the Targaryen brats (and 'reaving' the Riverlands - you can't possibly tell me that Tywin of all people didn't know their propensities by then) or who ordered the rape of Tysa (sp?), Tyrions first wife.

Well, I think that's a pretty solid analysis. I totally went from thinking "no way Tywin was boning Shae" to "hell yes he was!"

[corbon]

Well, I think that's a pretty solid analysis. I totally went from thinking "no way Tywin was boning Shae" to "hell yes he was!"

Err, thanks.

I'm only here because I got asked to bring the current conversation here...

Hm… in Clash of Kings there is a scene where Varys has smuggled Shae into the Hand’s quarters, she’s naked in bed, and wearing the chain. [Last Tyrion chapter before the Blackwater.]

In Storm of Swords there’s a scene with the same Shae naked in the exact same bed wearing the Hand’s chain. So Occam’s Razor, if you want to play that game, would dictate that here presence is best explained by Varys having led her there this time as well, through the secret entrance.

If you want to pursue this further, let’s do it in the current Tywin & Shae thread, not here.

Right. But Shae is already Tyrion's whore in CoK so by your own example, she was probably already Tywin's whore the second time around.

I like the Varys led her there theory. It makes sense. But there is a whole lot of extra theorising (much of which I have just read on this thread) which is simply unnecessary. It could be true, but it is much more complicated than it needs to be (never mind the whole widows blood mess in which some serious errors have been made).

Twyin's character in every single respect (save perhaps a reputed love over 25 years ago, which even if not suspect on the Tyrion=Targ bastard possibility (low IMO, but possible), is old history that can easily have been the very cause of character changes since then) fits the type who would have secret whores. And he has no reason whatsoever not to get a power buzz out of taking the despised Tyrion's whore.

Occams razor, Tywin has just finished with Shae and is having a relaxing dump.

It's probably not the first time he's used her either (contact would be made and things 'found out' when she was questioned before Tyrion's trial), though that is not really important.

There is no reason why this should not be true, other than an unfounded conviction in Tywin's 'purity'.

There are plenty of hints, both in 'fact' and character, that it could be true and is in fact likely to be true even without occam's razor being applied to this particular situation.

Shae may or may not have been brought up by Varys earlier to avoid notice, largely depending on the reliability of the tongues of Tywin's personal guards and their knowledge of his private (as opposed to public) persona. Note that we don't actually have any insight into Tywin's private persona - other than cruelty and hatred towards Tyrion that is.

If Shae was brought by Illyrio then the other theories about Illyrio planning a confrontation etc are all still valid. I don't have much to say about them because they are possible, fit the facts as we know them, but neither proven or unproven.

Poison isn't necessary for Illyrio's plotting. Some people just take a long time to do their business. Tyrion could have arrived when Tywin was vulnerable mid-coitus. Or asleep post-coitus. Or sitting in front of the fire polishing his crossbow. Either way there is a confrontation and someone is likely going down. Odds are going to be on Tyrion's side because he knows there will be a confrontation and against Twyin as he will be unprepared, and if Varys brought Shae, a high chance of being vulnerable anyway. That's probably enough for Varys. No reason really that he should 'need' Tyrion to survive and head to Dany's side. Just a major confrontation will severely weaken House Lannister either way - even if Tywin butchers Tyrion.

[Kemm]

Why half of the quotes' nicks are in cirilic (russian) even if the original nicks are not?

[Datepalm]

Why half of the quotes' nicks are in cirilic (russian) even if the original nicks are not?

there was a moment a few months back of widespread veneration for Mother Russia where some folks cyrilicaized their names. Quotes inside posts keep whatever the name was at the time.

Varys could have done it without planting Shae: He simply takes advantage of Tywin screwing Shae, knowing it will make Tyrion flip out completely, once hes decided that hes breaking Tyrion out either way, why not toss in the possibility he'll off Tywin as well. He still manipulates Tyrion into going up the ladder (it wasn't exactly hard, but he could have dropped a few more hints just to make sure), still poisons Tywin and positions the weapons. Possibly if Tyrion hadn't gone through with it, he would have taken a moment to go kill him himself before fleeing.

[Guest Other-in-Law]

Varys could have done it without planting Shae: He simply takes advantage of Tywin screwing Shae, knowing it will make Tyrion flip out completely, once hes decided that hes breaking Tyrion out either way, why not toss in the possibility he'll off Tywin as well. He still manipulates Tyrion into going up the ladder (it wasn't exactly hard, but he could have dropped a few more hints just to make sure), still poisons Tywin and positions the weapons. Possibly if Tyrion hadn't gone through with it, he would have taken a moment to go kill him himself before fleeing.

Just so. For this particular theory one can buy in as far down the line as they like and it still works. The version you outline is perfectly reasonable for me; the strongest and most necessary component is that Varys wanted Tyrion to go up the ladder and murder his father. Poisoning Tywin is not quite as needed (though still fairly strong), but it becomes more and more optional afterward.

[Datepalm]

Just so. For this particular theory one can buy in as far down the line as they like and it still works. The version you outline is perfectly reasonable for me; the strongest and most necessary component is that Varys wanted Tyrion to go up the ladder and murder his father. Poisoning Tywin is not quite as needed (though still fairly strong), but it becomes more and more optional afterward.

thinking about it some more, I think I like it better backwards: Varys wants Tywin dead - getting Tyrion to do it, or even getting Tyrion out, is the bonus.

- Varys decides hes outlived his usefulness in KL, time to take out Tywin and leave. He has escape plans in place.

- Jaime shows up one night, demanding he free Tyrion. Varys thinks about it, and reckons - why the hell not. Maybe he'll be useful over in the east.

- Tywin is independently screwing Shae. Varys knows this is a good guarentee for making Tyrion lose it completely (having eavesdropped on Tyrion telling Shae about Tysha back in COK), and will bind him to the eastern cause properly. He goes and poisons Tywin and positions the furniture. The worst thing that happens is that is dosen't work, in which case he'll just do it himself.

Thats it - it dosen't require Varys to have been planning it since COK or improbably Kellhusian manipulativeness. Its a longish shot for Varys - but its simply executed and has no risk.

[jmastar]

If tyrion doesnt catch tywin on the "pot" there is no way he is getting out of the chamber tho......

[Datepalm]

If tyrion doesnt catch tywin on the "pot" there is no way he is getting out of the chamber tho......

Thats why Varys makes sure he is on the pot. Its probably the same poison Tyrion used on Cercei in COK. Possibly, its the same vial.

[Darklich528]

I think it's fairly obvious that Varys wanted Tyrion to take the secret passage into the Hand's chamber.

I also think he knew that Tyrion was using Shae, it would enrage Tyrion, and that she was currently there. (Possibly being led there by Varys himself)

Now after that, it's just speculation. I agree that Tywin was using Shae for the same reasons mentioned above, but I'd also like to throw my 2c into the pot and say that Varys might not have known that Tyrion would kill Tywin. Perhaps his plan all along was merely for Tyrion to see Shae and Tywin together, so he would be so furious at House Lannister that when he got to the ship he would fight against them, working for Daenerys. Tywin's death was just a bonus. I have no doubt in my mind that Varys works for the realm, but specifically, to bring House Targaryen back into power. The specific details don't really matter that much, but I do think Varys had a hand in whatever happened that night. (Pun intended!)

[Datepalm]

Now after that, it's just speculation. I agree that Tywin was using Shae for the same reasons mentioned above, but I'd also like to throw my 2c into the pot and say that Varys might not have known that Tyrion would kill Tywin. Perhaps his plan all along was merely for Tyrion to see Shae and Tywin together, so he would be so furious at House Lannister that when he got to the ship he would fight against them, working for Daenerys. Tywin's death was just a bonus. I have no doubt in my mind that Varys works for the realm, but specifically, to bring House Targaryen back into power. The specific details don't really matter that much, but I do think Varys had a hand in whatever happened that night. (Pun intended!)

That works for me too, but it still leaves some doors open for Tyrion, and dosen't explain the suspiciously large amount of weaponly all conveneitly located within Tyrions not very large reach. The chest under the crossbow (which is a fairly rare weapon in westeros, not one known to be favoured by Tywin, and Tyrion never mentions having it when they were his chambers.) in like something out of Tomb Raider 2.

[Darklich528]

That works for me too, but it still leaves some doors open for Tyrion, and dosen't explain the suspiciously large amount of weaponly all conveneitly located within Tyrions not very large reach. The chest under the crossbow (which is a fairly rare weapon in westeros, not one known to be favoured by Tywin, and Tyrion never mentions having it when they were his chambers.) in like something out of Tomb Raider 2.

Oh yes don't get me wrong, I'm sure Varys planned everything in hopes that Tyrion would rage and kill his father. But that couldn't have been his master plan. Too many things could go wrong. (Even pawns sometimes don't do what they're supposed to do!) Whereas merely enraging Tyrion would be rather simple and likely given the setup.

Although it's possible he did know about Tysha on his own. But then it would also require him knowing that Jaime would reveal the truth to Tyrion, which I'm not sure anyone could have known. So yeah, I stick to my theory that Tywin's death was just a bonus.