Game 71.5

[Ser Spidey]

Ok, I'm here. One thing: there is an FM guard. If I was finder, I'd learned this by being guarded last night, and if not, I concluded this by it being the best-fitting balance and the fact I wasn't killed overnight.

After I have lunch, I plan on taking a good look at the last page. There are some important evidence there, and I only wish the rest of you could evaluate it in the light of me being innocent. Some of those reactions are fake, and we need to find out which ones.

[Mina Martell]

I'll be out all day working on my MECH project, so I won't be able to contribute more until this evening. And I'm running late, so unfortunately, this is a lot of wishy-washy rambling.

Here's the problem. My brain is telling me that Spidey's claim is the most harebrained, illogical move ever, and much more likely to come from a killer sowing confusion at the moment before his lynch. (I'm still torn, but when I said I believed him, it was a very conscious decision to counteract Sir Thursday's "I don't believe you" and try to draw a NK to him.) Logically, it makes much more sense for a killer to plant a finder code than for an RI to prepare a fakeclaim. I think the fact that Spidey is still alive is a null tell--because come on, you'd have to be the dumbest killer in the world to think that he's a finder when he claimed "RI pretending to be the finder." But Kat made a great point that the smart thing for an RI to do would have been to shut up and draw a NK.

But I don't think I believe that self-serving illogical behavior out of Spider. Then again, I haven't played a lot recently. Tell me, is Spider customarily full of his own confidence in solving the game with his mind and no assistance from roles?

Um...well, Spidey does tend to think...very highly of himself. And makes rather unconventional moves. (See: vigging on N1, claiming symp finder as the symp and framing his own master...) So I suppose I could see him pretending to be roled just so as not to get lynched. Planting a finder code as an RI, on the other hand, is kind of useless. I do agree that if he's innocent, this is horrifically bad and selfish play that might have lost us the game. (Letting yourself be lynched as an RI would have actually helped us, because it would save a finder investigation.)

That said...

I still really suspect Gert right now. I really think that if she was innocent, she would have tried to set Spidey up as a nightkill target rather than immediately try to discredit his claim. And I don't like how she pushed me to hammer him. Something felt off there. The more I reread, the more I feel like she was trying to manipulate us with her little outburst before the lynch--because she was very calm and collected before that one post. And her statements keep on ringing false to me.

And of course, Gert and Spidey are almost certainly not partners. But of course, this all sounds completely crazy when I try to articulate it.

When I returned to the thread and saw that the NK was Piper (who I still kind of suspected), I'll admit that made me waver. But if you were Spidey, would you kill someone very strongly anti-you and pro-Gert, and who'd racked up a bit of suspicion? I'd choose someone like Sir Thursday, or even TheMalcolm, so it wouldn't lead so obviously to me. And I don't like how quick Gert was to point out that it made her look innocent. I could see the kill as rolehunting (Piper was playing a little more low-key than usual), but if it's a frame kill, then Gertrude is being very, very blatant about it.

(Don't laugh, but the crazy theory that has been running through my head is that Gert and Malcolm are the killers. Yeah, I kid you not. Malc. When I was rereading, I really thought the way he kept on loudly saying he suspected Gert but was voting for Spidey sounded like distancing. That's why I pounced on his Spidey vote. And the fact that he claimed to still suspect Gert in his first morning post...but still casually dismissed her as a suspect because of the NK...well, it isn't damning, but it certainly fits my crazy theory that the Piper kill was a very deliberate frame job. Ironically, if he'd immediately said, "Well, I definitely trust Gert now," I would have felt better about him. I think a partner is more likely to keep his options open the way he did.

Also, I didn't like how he kept self-consciously drawing attention to his innocent playstyle. For example, I remember he used the "I was always bad at explaining evident things" line as an excuse for not explaining why he trusted a player during the Christmas game. But I know this is all Lalaland talk.)

So I'm really, really torn now. On the one hand, I'm still suspicious of Gert right now.

But on the other hand, Spidey's claim is so scummy that we almost can't let him get away with it on policy. And he's been so smarmy and in-your-face about his refusal to have suspects other than Gert.

And I'm almost certain they aren't partnered. And I'm so consistently wrong all the time that I don't know if I should trust my own instincts. I really hope Piper wasn't the finder--and that Spidey isn't, either.

I'm also curious as to why Mina didn't hammer. You said you didn't believe Spider, you asked if you should hammer and Gert said you should... yet you didn't.

All in all (and with the hindsight of Spider's awful explanation), I think it was probably the right decision, but why do it if you didn't believe Spider was roled?

Um, let me put it this way. Have you ever seen me try to choose a night action?

Before Spidey revealed, I wasn't sold on the Spidey lynch. Then when he revealed a role, I was almost certain that he was lying. I knew that no real roled player would wait UNTIL TWO MINUTES BEFORE THE LYNCH to reveal.

But there's a difference between disbelieving a role reveal, and having two minutes to decide whether to place the hammer vote on a claimed role. It was just...a lot of pressure. I waffled on what to do, and then time ran out.

But now I have a similar question for you. Mentat, how did you go from suspecting Gert most, to preferring to go to night rather than vote for Gert or Spidey (based on there not being enough evidence to lynch strong players like them on D1), to voting Spidey?

Ok, I'm here. One thing: there is an FM guard. If I was finder, I'd learned this by being guarded last night, and if not, I concluded this by it being the best-fitting balance and the fact I wasn't killed overnight.

After I have lunch, I plan on taking a good look at the last page. There are some important evidence there, and I only wish the rest of you could evaluate it in the light of me being innocent. Some of those reactions are fake, and we need to find out which ones.

:angry:

Spidey, if you're going to claim finder, just reveal and get it over with. Also, could you sound any oilier with that last paragraph?

If you're an RI, then I am going to strangle you after this game. At this point, the only reason I'm wavering on you is because Gert looks so evil.

[Mina Martell]

I just realized that Piper is probably turning in his grave at the above post. Cower before my monster wishy-washy posts of doom, foolish mortals!

[Mentat]

But now I have a similar question for you. Mentat, how did you go from suspecting Gert most, to preferring to go to night rather than vote for Gert or Spidey (based on there not being enough evidence to lynch strong players like them on D1), to voting Spidey?

Gert convinced me. While me taking a stand doesn't really help me, I understood her point about innocents needing information to work with on other days. Though I'd initially been suspicious of Gert for her RP I though at the end of the day she came across as more convincing, while there was no oomph in Spider's posts at all. I wouldn't really have minded going to night, though (hence why I don't think it's a tragedy we eventually did).

Spidey, if you're going to claim finder, just reveal and get it over with. Also, could you sound any oilier with that last paragraph?

If you're an RI, then I am going to strangle you after this game. At this point, the only reason I'm wavering on you is because Gert looks so evil.

This. Also, if you're a finder you should have felt the Damocles sword hanging over your head yesterday what with your half-reveal. It makes no sense for you to tell us we trust anyone claiming finder knowing that you're the finder yourself and that you're likely to die the next day.

[Chairman Meow]

I'm back.

I don't buy Spidey's claim. At all. If he really was a RI trying to draw a NK he wouldn't have posted his "I'm trying to take a NK!" post in the middle of the night. Therefore, he is either evil, or he really is the finder. If he is the finder, he should give us the results of his investigation. But wait! He was guarded last night. :rolleyes: How convienent.

[Gertrude]

Spidey ... makes rather unconventional moves.

This is the only thing that is giving his story a 'plausible' pass in my mind. It is outweighed very heavily by the 'not bloody likely' part.

I still really suspect Gert right now. I really think that if she was innocent, she would have tried to set Spidey up as a nightkill target rather than immediately try to discredit his claim. And I don't like how she pushed me to hammer him. Something felt off there. The more I reread, the more I feel like she was trying to manipulate us with her little outburst before the lynch--because she was very calm and collected before that one post. And her statements keep on ringing false to me.

I wasn't thinking of optimal play at that point, I was mainly thinking 'That bastard! He's trying to save his neck with a bad claim and the lynch is going to rebound on me.' Of course I was pushing you to hammer him. I didn't want there to be enough time for anyone to come back and vote for me.

I will admit that my outburst - while genuine - was calculated. It doesn't invalidate my point or my feelings. All it means is that I was bottling up all that frustration before that point, and decided to let it go to get my point across.

As to me pointing out the Piper kill ... it's what we do? It was the first thing that flashed across my brain, so I said it. I am not a fan of choosing a lynch based on the night kill, but it is more often beneficial to the killers than a frame job and it can be used to strengthen cases. In any case, I will not be voting Spidey because of the Piper kill. Spidey earned the vote all on his own. Which I won't be placing quite yet. We have lots of time.

[Ser Spidey]

Whoa. Talk about a shit load of accusations to answer.

Well, first I'm going to try and answer the points I find important, and then, if there is time and energy left, actually make some accusations.

[Gertrude]

I'm not so sure about Mina. The situation she could have been refering to (indirectly, of course) might be that of holding up the lynch past the deadline or cutting her partner in crime loose.

Remember that you changing your vote from Spidey to Gertrude was a direct result of her meddling.

Pebbles was right in there with Mina. IIRC, Pebbles was the one who originally brought up the fact that Malc switching would not result in a net vote loss. She was also deliberately withholding the hammer saying "I'm thinking, I have 12 minutes.' I think Pebbles looks worse and could have been delaying to give Spidey a chance to save himself.

[Pebble thats Stubby]

I hate last min claims they are always bad play for innocnets.

Looking back Spiders claim is more believable if he's the genuine finder. his reveal as RI durring night could be his way of hoping the FM would kill someone else. I want Spider to state clearly if he is the finder or not. or if he has a role. I don't want the real finder to reveal unless he/she has a guilty verdict. I will leave it to the real finder to decide if he/she should counter Spider if he fully claims the role - We may still lynch him without the counter claim. However if you do deciede to reveal please make sure we have time to disscuss.

If we take his plan (semi revealing on day 3) at face valve then the only thing I can see it achieving is chaos. I can't really see the advantage to the innocents. That I have seen spider make better more hiden codes in the past. which makes me wonder if he orrigonally made it in the hope the FM would spot it and draw the night kill. the temptation to claim when at last min may have been too much.

Counter claiming is normally the provance of symps. we don't have symps in this game. the question I want people to answer is If there are 2 FM and one is Spider do you think he would be ballsy enough to fake claim finder? If the answer is no do you think there could be 3 FM?

I'm also curious as to why Mina didn't hammer. You said you didn't believe Spider, you asked if you should hammer and Gert said you should... yet you didn't.

All in all (and with the hindsight of Spider's awful explanation), I think it was probably the right decision, but why do it if you didn't believe Spider was roled?

Pebble's reluctance I have a much easier time understanding, since she said she'd rather go to night even before Spider revealed a role.

I considered going night, I just wasn't sure what was the best course of action. I was wishywashy in my own thoughts in the matter. I was thinking about hammering just before he claimed. Once Spider claimed, I just didn't know what to think. I wanted to lynch him cos his claimed stunk of desperation, but he might have been telling the truth.

[Gertrude]

Gert convinced me. While me taking a stand doesn't really help me, I understood her point about innocents needing information to work with on other days.

Just wanted to point this out. I said this when me and Spidey were tied for votes and had no way of knowing what the eventual outcome would be. It could very well be that I had just talked myself into a lynch. Would an FM risk that or would they just let the 'go to night' crowd convince themselves? There's your serving of WIFOM for today.

[Ser Spidey]

I don't trust Spidey. Day 3 is generally the time when real finder should reveal, hiding for longer is too risky, and both guilty result or two CIs are best things we could expect from a finder. Spidey should understand this, so his plan of soft-claiming on Day 3 looks totally senseless for innocent. On other side, it's quite a good plan for a killer.

I still dislike Gert's posts, but Piper's death makes her looking much better (unless she is partnered with Spidey; I need to think if it is possible).

I am almost sure we should lynch ser Spidey, unless finder would reveal.

You mean, unless a finder would reveal with an innocent reading on me? :P

Well, perhaps it wasn't the best plan ever. But it could have thrown a wedge in killers' decisions. Or I could have revealed on day 2. Or something. The thing is, there was even the possibility of never using the code. It's just that there were loads of times when, even as a RI, I wished I had some codes, but didn't.

[Ser Spidey]

Brilliantly done, by the way. But the reason I don't believe it is that faking a claim as an innocent, and then ANNOUNCING your fake claim DURING THE NIGHT is just ridiculously pointless. Wouldn't it have been more useful to actually keep your mouth shut and draw a FM kill?

Well, there are several reasons. First off, there was the possibility of the FM killing me, using my quite visible code to prove I was the finder and discredit the real finder. Second, I didn't leave out the possibilityof being a finder. Third, this is a moot point, since the FM have a guard and would have guarded me and killed someone else anyway. I was fairly certain they had one, even at that point, but hoped they didn't.

Let's assume for a moment that he's telling the truth, and he's got a 50% chance of being a finder, and 50% chance RI. If I were the killer, I'd be all over that 50% and would have killed him last night. There's nothing to lose by killing a finder claimant on the first day before they have any investigations. Yeah, and I'd kill him even though his code kind of sucks and seems like he made it up retrospectively.

Although I posess many Mafia skills, making up codes retrospectively is not one of them. Especially not in 20 minutes or so, which I believe was roughly the time between the reveal and posting the code. Want to see a made-up code? Check mentat's lonewolf game, where Lany pulled one. In order to create it, she had to come up with an incredibly complicated model, which nevertheless had one apparent mistake. My code, OTOH, is incredibly simple and neat. 3 sentences, 6 letters, all in order, spelling the actual name of the role. So, why would a smart player like you even entertain the possibility of it being retrospective? Why would an innocent player fabricate evidence?

[Mina Martell]

I'm back.

I don't buy Spidey's claim. At all. If he really was a RI trying to draw a NK he wouldn't have posted his "I'm trying to take a NK!" post in the middle of the night. Therefore, he is either evil, or he really is the finder. If he is the finder, he should give us the results of his investigation. But wait! He was guarded last night. :rolleyes: How convienent.

Chairman Meow, you have contributed nothing all game.

Good, you think Spidey's claim is dodgy. So who else do you suspect? Spidey has a partner if he's evil.

[Ser Spidey]

To be perfectly honest, the answer to that is probably yes. One of the reasons I ended up voting him was that I thought he wasn't really playing up to his usual standards, which I normally consider an evil tell.

Well, TBH, being an innocent in a non-CF game is not something likely to make me do my best, at least not on day 1. OTOH, I really enjoy being evil, and am usually quite active and agressive when I am.

Another thing: initially, Spidey said his role was provable. Which makes me think that he wanted to claim something like a vig. Finder role isn't provable, is it?

I meant provable by code.

[Ser Spidey]

Not really, no. My impression is that he just wanted to survive, so he said anything which he thought would buy him enough time to make it past the day limit.

That said, finder role would probably be believed from anyone saying 'I'm the finder' unless there was a counter claim.

I was afraid of the counter-claim, which could have brought the real finder out in the open unnecessarily.

[Ser Spidey]

I'll just go over this again, because I'm bored and no one's around. Then you'll all be active while I'm sleeping and have all the fun without me. Anyway:

This story really doesn't hold. The more I read it the more I'm convinced the purpose of the code was more likely to be to provide grounds for a counter reveal. Also, you basically saved yourself from a lynch by claiming a role but now claim to be RI, so you lied exclusively to save your own neck.

I just can't imagine how your plan would play out. You either reveal finder or you don't, you can't simply come out on day three and say you might be a finder or you might not. It either fools everyone (so you false claim, risking a real finder counter and who knows what other awful stuff) or it fools no one (so everyone considers your claim absurd, and the FM are actually more likely to target someone else). Revealing finder on day 3 and not saying who you'd investigated would convince no one.

Anyway, you're a clever player, so I'm just not going to let you get away with some half-arsed explanation for these shenannigans.

Ok, here goes my scenario. I come out on day 3 saying 'maybe I'm a finder'. The real finder shuts the hell up. I give no results. We go to night. FM kill me. The real finder reveals tommorow with an investigation more. The FM should kill me, because the chances of me being a finder are actually quite high. You see, I had a code. And the innocents don't put in codes and prepare fake claims. Knowing me, you know I tend to win games by unorthodox moves people would never actually consider, and this could have been one of those, if I didn't let myself get so close to a lynch.

Fair enough?

[Ser Spidey]

I still really suspect Gert right now. I really think that if she was innocent, she would have tried to set Spidey up as a nightkill target rather than immediately try to discredit his claim. And I don't like how she pushed me to hammer him. Something felt off there. The more I reread, the more I feel like she was trying to manipulate us with her little outburst before the lynch--because she was very calm and collected before that one post. And her statements keep on ringing false to me.

And of course, Gert and Spidey are almost certainly not partners. But of course, this all sounds completely crazy when I try to articulate it.

When I returned to the thread and saw that the NK was Piper (who I still kind of suspected), I'll admit that made me waver. But if you were Spidey, would you kill someone very strongly anti-you and pro-Gert, and who'd racked up a bit of suspicion? I'd choose someone like Sir Thursday, or even TheMalcolm, so it wouldn't lead so obviously to me. And I don't like how quick Gert was to point out that it made her look innocent. I could see the kill as rolehunting (Piper was playing a little more low-key than usual), but if it's a frame kill, then Gertrude is being very, very blatant about it.

Word.

[Ser Spidey]

Just wanted to point this out. I said this when me and Spidey were tied for votes and had no way of knowing what the eventual outcome would be. It could very well be that I had just talked myself into a lynch. Would an FM risk that or would they just let the 'go to night' crowd convince themselves? There's your serving of WIFOM for today.

I'd like to point out that I said the same thing (about not wanting to go to night). So, mentat, why would Gert get a free pass, but I wouldn't?

[LCOTNW]

Why would an innocent player fabricate evidence?

If you are indeed the finder I don't know how we could ever believe your finder reports down the road, and if the killers successfully blocked you last night, as you asserted, with a presumably unlimited FM guard, you probably won't have any reports for us in the future anyway.

Hopefully, you are indeed just an insane RI, but if so, I am trying to figure out why you are asserting that there is definitely an FM guard? Admittedly, no innocent guard would have a reason to do a night action on the first night since nothing good can come of it. If you are the finder, you would know you were blocked, but if you are an RI, and you are just presuming that there is an FM guard... Both your reveal, partial retraction, and assertion that there is an FM guard is really distracting, and not in any way helpful.

If I were the finder and you revealed as the finder on Day 3 (with code), I would absolutely counterclaim. and reveal my investigations up to that point (presumably innocent results) and then we would presumably lynch you and/or me, thereby losing the game. Why on earth would the finder not reveal on day 3 when the risk is so much greater that they will be NK'd regardless?

[Ser Spidey]

Talking to myself...

Anyway, now I'm done with what I'm sure is only the first wave of explanations and defence, let's actually suspect someone.

I still suspect Gert. I've suspected her yesterday, and she has done nothing to alleviate those suspicions. Plus, her outburst was very convenient and calculated, as she later admitted to, and she was incredibly eager to point out how bright and shiny Piper's kill makes her look. She forgets to mention that Piper wasn't present after her outburst, or my claim, and that he could have gone either way.

Going through the last page, which is mostly accusations against me, I must notice some things. I don't find Gert's attack on me especially suspicious of itself, although there is other stuff that makes her suspicious. Malc's attack, OTOH, has me really worried. Malc, when evil, tends to try to secure a lynch early in the day. His accusations are sharp, he is insistent. He wants to ensure that the main suspect is lynched, as long as it's not him or his partners. I've rarely seen him so determined when innocent, and never this early in the game. So, that makes him my suspect number 2. Important thing is, he and Gert can't be partnered.

Kat's comment about the code being made up also rings some bells, especially when the code is so plain and obvious. Still need to think whether it's the evil speaking from her or just a blatant misjudgement.

Mina saying she trusts me during the night, and then pointing it out in the morning is something I'd expect from her, no matter evil or innocent. However, Pebs' asking people not to post their opinion about me during the night is a point for her, in my opinion.

I still trust LC, Chairman Meow's last post is not looking very good, and I can't make my mind up on Lany or Sir Thursday.