Lord Varys, on 04 November 2010 - 09:42 PM, said:
one should assume she knows how to survive on her own in the Riverlands, or at least how to get unseen to her father's closest friends in the region.
Alright, fair enough, Riverrun's an easy distance from the inn as she remarks earlier in that chapter, though it's still going to be a more
expected destination than the Eyrie. Even then, she's holing up with nothing to gain but might. Unlike you, though, I don't think Catelyn
is aiming for war. I think the information Lysa holds is justification enough from Cat's point of view, given that she has already arrested Tyrion.
Lord Varys, on 04 November 2010 - 09:42 PM, said:
And effectively it was not that difficult to see the whole trip to the Eyrie as a preparation for a coalition of three great houses (Tully, Stark, Arryn) against Robert Baratheon with Eddard Stark as the leader.
Effectively it's not that difficult to see a trip to Riverrun as a preparation for a coalition of two great houses against Robert Baratheon with Eddard Stark as the leader. Does the addition of one more house make it a worse move? If anything the third house would give the Lannisters more to fear, if they're going to play that game in the first place.
Lord Varys, on 04 November 2010 - 09:42 PM, said:
Sending ravens would not have helped Cat or Lysa - even if they had send Tyrion's signed confession of the assassination attempt, Cersei would still have found a way to make it appear like an insult to Robert.
[...]
A letter written by Lysa would not have found Robert in good mood, anyway. He was hurt and insulted by the fact that she left KL hastily and took the opportunity away from him to care for his namesake, Robert Arryn. He really wanted to raise the boy properly.
Cersei is going to try and make
everything the Starks do appear bad for Robert. Ultimately if they cannot depend on Robert to tear himself away from Cersei's influence then
nothing is worth doing with Robert's involvement at all, and I think we all agree that he has to eventually become involved at some point.
And Robert was not personally insulted by Lysa's departure, he knows that it was an affront to the Lannisters and probably resented having to deal with their disgruntlement (he sleeps with a Lannister and all that jazz), but I can't see him letting
that get in the way of considering her words,
if we can count on him to dispense justice in the first place. And if you can't do that, isn't our whole argument about going to Robert moot? Point is, Cersei's influence is the real factor here.
Lord Varys, on 04 November 2010 - 09:42 PM, said:
Not stating your intentions and not coming to your King awaiting his judgment can always be seen as treason.
Oh sure, but Cat may have intended to let King's Landing know just that. To be honest I don't know why Martin doesn't let us know Cat's further intentions but I am fairly certain that he never intended them to be that she is moving for war or that any of her actions were motivated by anything other than avoiding the pursuit she expected from Tywin Lannister and seeing what Lysa, the woman who sent her word of the Lannister plot in the first place, the woman whom Cat is shocked to realize doesn't want to do anything except run away from the Lannisters, has to say. These actually have solid points of reference in the text.
At any rate, you are saying that Cat going to the Eyrie indicates evasion of justice and the potential gain from Lysa's testimony is not enough to compensate, and you are saying that Cat's presence in King's Landing would actually assist Ned ...
Lord Varys, on 04 November 2010 - 09:42 PM, said:
But to speak in favor of Ned: It would have been much more easier for him to do so if Catelyn and Tyrion were right there so that Robert could question them. Without them present, he could not make a decision, could he?
But I'm not sure why not? The trial probably could not proceed without Tyrion's presence, of course, but as you say, Ned thinks Littlefinger is telling the truth, and even if they can't connect that to Arryn's murder, they certainly have a good case (in the context of medieval legal realities) for the attempted murder of Bran should Littlefinger say that the murder weapon belonged to Tyrion. This is not enough to compel Robert to the possibility that Catelyn's apprehension of Tyrion is justified?
Lord Varys, on 04 November 2010 - 09:42 PM, said:
Going to Riverrun without anyone believing that Cat would go there ...
Well, as you say, she is Catelyn Tully, daughter of Hoster. I would think people would expect Riverrun ahead of the Eyrie. I know I did.
Lord Varys, on 04 November 2010 - 09:42 PM, said:
Then Cersei would not have been able to prepare a hunting accident, nor would it be particularly likely that Robert would have gone hunting/or remained out there.
But I would think that this is out of the realm of predictability from Cat's POV. Nobody at this point thinks the king's life is in jeopardy or has any cause to. Of course Cat should not want to needlessly delay the trial if she's honestly and honorably seeking justice, but I think you brush off Lysa's contributions too quickly. Ought Cat to have expected that Cersei would nullify Lysa's testimony, if she could expect any justice from Robert at all?
Lord Varys, on 04 November 2010 - 09:42 PM, said:
With Robert not caring to be the King, Ned's sentence while sitting on the Iron Throne would be as good as the King's. It would have been risky to do this, but Cersei would not have been able to do anything about it.
Cersei can get her husband to disregard a signed letter of admission of guilt, but she can't convince Robert to sit in on Tyrion's trial himself? Surely you jest, good sir. There is no effort she would spare to prevent Eddard Stark from administering her kin's justice.
PS: I absolutely agree that Littlefinger was obviously trying to make Ned dependent on him and pull him away from Robert, BTW, though I think I disagree that he genuinely wanted Ned to forget about the dagger. I felt that the idea of forgetting all about Bran's attempted murder could only incense and gall Ned more. He doesn't want Ned to go home, but he doesn't want Ned to go to Robert and he doesn't want Ned to consider that anyone else is responsible for anything that's gone awry other than the Lannisters.
I also think it's a lot easier for Robert to be generous on his deathbed than he'd otherwise be. People like to die with no regrets. I suppose if he'd still had a near-death experience and just happened to survive, he might've had a big perspective change, though.
Edited by Lady Blackfish, 05 November 2010 - 02:21 AM.