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Mafia Game 79 - Game of Thrones Finale Party!


House Targaryen

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Right now, my top 2 suspects are Tyrion and Jaime.

Drogo and Syrio are behind them.

Tyrion is currently my top suspect, Jaime and Drogo behind him. I'm somewhat paranoid about Renly: a part of me thinks the FM's wouldn't distance as heavily as he and Varys did, in a game like this, but I'm not really sure. And then there's still Jorah's weird trust in Renly on day 1... :leaving:

edited for clarity

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Well, I can understand me being in top tier, but why Drogo and Syrio are behind Jaime?

Because Jorah continually went back to his Jaime case, to the exclusion of pretty much every other player. Feels like he was over-enthusiastic about what amounted to a weak case. I could definitely see that as distancing.

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Seacrest: I've got great news!

Voice Over: We're getting out of this mess? Police diffused the bomb? Tell me. For the love of God tell me we're saved.

Seacrest: Better than saved. We're the number 1 show on TV! That should cheer you up.

Voice Over: loud sobbing

Seacrest: Oh, roll the cameras, cry baby, and someone wake-up Sandy in my trailer, I see the interrogation team coming this way.

Voice Over: three . . . sob . . . two . . . sob . . . one

Seacrest: Good morning. This is Ryan Seacrest, your host of the #1 rated show "Win or Die!", a Real Reality TVTM original production. Our interrogation team has finally cracked Eddard Stark. And believe me he was one tough nut to crack. Our team had to go . . . all the way.

Attractive blonde enters carrying envelope and followed by large, bulky man carrying Eddard Stark's head dripping blood.

Seacrest: I guess that's a bit of life imitating art right there. But boy was it worth it, because we've got the results. Sandy?

Attractive blonde opens envelope with a flourish.

Sandy: Ned Stark was

Innocent.

Seacrest: Perfect timing, here come our players. Who is that limp wristed fellow they are dragging. Oh, it looks like Grip 1 has killed

Renly Baratheon (scrahan).

Seacrest: What a way to start the day! Seacrest, out!

It is day 5.

6 players remain: Cersei Lannister, Jaime Lannister, Khal Drogo, Sansa Stark, Syrio Forel, Tyrion Lannister.

4 votes are needed for a conviction or 3 to go to night.

6 players have not voted: Cersei Lannister, Jaime Lannister, Khal Drogo, Sansa Stark, Syrio Forel, Tyrion Lannister.

The day limit for today will be 11:30 AM (Eastern US time) on Monday, so that people do not need to ruin Father's Day.

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Well, that nips that bit of paranoia in the bud I guess.

For reasons already stated, I think Tyrion is the most likely to be the 3rd evil, but I have a few more reviews to do before I vote. We have guests coming over in a couple minutes, so it may be a while before I get to them.

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Oh Godgod, I'm so sorry that I haven't written anything till this moment!! My traffic limit's come to it's end after my last post here and I won't have a possibility to re-charge till Monday((( I'm now writing from my neighbours' laptop, but I'm afraid that it might be my only post for today, although I'll try to come here again... I see I've missed the end of the day 3 and the whole day 4....

So u've lynched Eddard.. I've really thought him to be innocent and it looks like I was right... And after Cersei finding that post about Jorah blaming Renly whom he then claimed as inno I believe that Jorah is mafia. Ok so there're Cersei who's innocent, Sansa, Tyrion, Drogo, Forel. I feel that Sansa's probably peaceful cause if she were a mafioso, she'd have probably tried to act in a more controlled and calm way. So then there're Tyrion, Drogo and Forel. I've promised to re-read Tyrion but due to that damn traffic couldn't do this, so I think that he's mafia, but the reasoning's only his actions in the first two rounds. Tomorrow I'll be here and do this, I hope that this day won't be so quick. Between Syrio and Drogo I'm more inclined to believe in Drogo being peaceful.Sorry for such a chaotic post I'm just running out of time

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Jorah:

Starts with infamous "roleclaim" post ("I can't believe I've been given the worst possible role").

Suspects Sansa, calls her case OMGUS.

Asks Varis to stop RP.

Drogo would be in my trusted list but for a niggling doubt that his comment about the FM having more to fear from the berserker (which I think is fair - the berserker is more likely to hurt us than the FM, but our individual lives still matter less) might reveal that the FM had thought about it in their cave and that was why it was foremost in Drogy-bear's thinking.

Tiers:

Most suspicious -

Dany, Ros, Sansa

Eddard, Cersei, Drogo,

Varys, Renly,

Arya

Least suspicious.

.

Won't vote for tiers 3-4, votes Dany.

Day 2: Answers Syrio's question why he trusted Renly: "Didn't notice anything suspicious". Tells to Khal he still suspect Dany.

Accuses Jaime of wishy-washiness, votes him.

Still suspects Sansa, defends himself from Varis.

Day 3: Renly and Jayme are his first suspects. Against lynching Petyr. Votes Jayme, claims, clearing Renly.

Resuming: yeah, he is effectively proven evil.

Heavily distances from Jayme and Sansa.

Starts trusting Varis, then switch to very-very slight distancing.

Never mentions or interacts with me, except while explaining that Jaime's case on me was bad.

Barely contacts with Khal and Syrio.

For me, he looks much more likely as symp to Varis than as his partner. And if so, his second master might be me, Syrio and Khal. We all three are in his middle tier on day 1, he is wishy-washy about Khal and he forgots to mention either me or Syrio . Also, at the beginning of day 2 he answers Khal's question about Dany which was addressed to somebody else; it was one of rare situations where he initiated an interaction himself.

And, seriously, symp is worstest of worst possible roles, for a player he won't have enough time to play it in full strength.

If he was a killer, he definitely didn't want to distance from his partner and the third member of the team was probably promotable symp whose identity he didn't know until the end of day 2. Well, his thought about Jaime are exactly same on days 2 and 3, but he suddenly forgets about Sansa from start of day 3.

So, for me Jaime is probably innocent, unless there were three killers from the very beginning (and I won't analyse this variant). Khal is most probably evil if Jorah was a symp and Sansa is most probably if he was a killer.

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Ive once again used the kindness of our neighbours cause my damn paranoia is killing me!! Pleaseplease tell me that there can't be a simple symp here, a nonpromotable one.... because I just cant understand why Cersei said about her role, I just can't... my mind is racing %%%%%

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Cersei, if I remember it rightly, you CIed Sansa because it had no sense for Sansa-Varis pair to kill Arya on night 1, didn't you?

But why Sansa can't be a promo symp to Varis-Jorah? Well, I should check if Arya was a threat to Jorah.

Also, what's your opinion about why Renly was killed instead of you? You are active and leading CI, whilst Renly was rather passive VPI. Could it be because he was close to solving the game than you at the point?

More rereads to follow...

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Pleaseplease tell me that there can't be a simple symp here, a nonpromotable one....

Well, Jorah could be an unpromotable symp. Nobody else living could. If we lynched two killers, unpromotable symp would evdently lose, he can't win by the rules. We were definitely said that soldier is good only role (though I like soldier symps myself, but Pless evidently doesn't)

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Have a massive hangover right now. :(

Cersei, if I remember it rightly, you CIed Sansa because it had no sense for Sansa-Varis pair to kill Arya on night 1, didn't you?

I thought that was a good point when somebody else made it, but no, that is not the reason I made her VPI.

But why Sansa can't be a promo symp to Varis-Jorah? Well, I should check if Arya was a threat to Jorah.

The reason Sansa is VPI is because of her reaction when Petyr declared himself Finder and said Varys was guilty. She went nuts going after Petyr and defending Varys. Would Varys' FM partner act like that? No way. Would a promotable symp who knows he's about to take Varys' place act like that? No way.

Also, she claimed roleless innocent and didn't counterclaim Petyr. That means she's probably not a regular symp either. Not that I think we have a regular symp alive in this game (we've lynched 2 evils and the game is still going, so the 3rd remaining evil player has to be FM or promotable symp who is now FM).

To refer back to a previous game - remember 2 games ago, when Mummy/Gert went nuts in defending Edward/Mexal? And we lynched Edward/Mexal and he was guilty? Everyone suspected Mummy/Gert after that, and she kept arguing that she would never be so stupid as to freak out about her FM partner being lynched. Well, she was telling the truth - she was innocent. I think we have that exact same situation here.

Given the number of days we have left, there's really no way I'll even consider lynching Sansa. I'm confident that she is innocent. And if anybody else votes for her, I'm going to be pretty damn annoyed.

Also, what's your opinion about why Renly was killed instead of you? You are active and leading CI, whilst Renly was rather passive VPI. Could it be because he was close to solving the game than you at the point?

Because I'm bulletproof.

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The reason Sansa is VPI is because of her reaction when Petyr declared himself Finder and said Varys was guilty. She went nuts going after Petyr and defending Varys. Would Varys' FM partner act like that? No way. Would a promotable symp who knows he's about to take Varys' place act like that? No way.

But you willingly lynched Eddard who behaved it almost same way? Why?

Because I'm bulletproof.

Ok, but how they could know this?

You behave as regular innocent leader, who isn't bulletproof in 99% of games.

Anyway, tell me: do you think Jorah interactions with Varis makes him more likely a symp or more likely a partner?

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But you willingly lynched Eddard who behaved it almost same way? Why?

He did? I don't remember that at all.

Ok, but how they could know this?

You behave as regular innocent leader, who isn't bulletproof in 99% of games.

Because I revealed that I was bulletproof yesterday. Did you miss this post?

Anyway, tell me: do you think Jorah interactions with Varis makes him more likely a symp or more likely a partner?

I'm pretty confident that Jorah and Varys were partners from the very start of the game. As I've said a few times, the way Varys acted toward Jorah on days 1 and 2 looks like distancing to me.

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Re-read of Khal Drogo.

On day 1, when I stick to my desire to lynch Jorah, he responds that I should give it up and vote Ros -

Well, Arya's ass isn't in the fire right now. Dany's is, and I think she already used up her Get Out Of Fire Free card at the end of AGoT, so I recommend you just vote for the most viable lynch you aren't against. I recommend Ros.

His argument is that time was running down, a Jorah lynch wasn't happening, and I should vote Ros to help keep Dany alive (since I didn't suspect Dany and she was the other lynch option). Its a reasonable argument, but I still don't like that he gave up on other lynch alternatives with a few hours left in the day.

I then ask what other people think about Jorah. Drogo says -

Basically. He's incredibly boring, but he's on my radar for not pinging my radar.

Pretty middle of the road response.

Renly is suspicious of Varys, and Drogo comments -

You sound relatively certain of that. Why didn't you up the pressure on Varys? Yes, I saw that you had a vote on him, but one solitary vote doesn't make for much of a threat. I'm not even sure Varys noticed that you took beef with him at all. You weren't hugely active, but I'd be more forgiving of that if you didn't have anything to say--but clearly, you had a pretty solid opinion on this. Why weren't you making some sort of rickety D1 case?

Hmm. Not sure that an evil player would say something like that. Its sort of an attack on Renly, but it could also be interpreted as encouragement for him to make a greater case on Varys. So there could be negative consequences for that type of comment, and there really wouldn't be much to gain - its not strong enough to be effective distancing.

After Arya dies, Drogo reviews her posts. One of his main conclusions -

I'd say I am less suspicious of Sansa now since I don't think Sansa had enough fans to NK someone that liked her.

I think thats a point in Drogo's favor. Evil players are willing to say that they feel other players are innocent, but I don't think they often go beyond gut and provide actual logical evidence to support the feeling. It certainly happens sometimes, but its not very common. They prefer to leave some flexibility, so other people can come to their own conclusions.

But then we have a point against Drogo. I mention that he went from not suspecting Ros to later having Ros in his tier 1, once the momentum started to swing that way. His response didn't alleviate my concern -

Because I had just gotten back home, and all I'd done was skim the thread really fast on my phone during my busride. I honestly didn't really recall what Ros had done to be suspicious. Then I settled down and read the thread for real.

Then I make my case against Varys on day 2. Drogo responds with a vote on Petyr and a mild defense for Varys -

baelish, I'd love for you to answer Dany's case. I've got to run, but few thoughts of mine:

I like Varys. but he needs to stop the floral talky talky. because readng him's like reading the textual equivalent of my grandmother's wallpaper

I'm actually less suspicious of this than I was of the responses by Eddard and Tyrion (which I'll get to when I re-read him). Its not great, but I'd rather see a direct defense than an attempt to agree with the case but deflect our attention elsewhere.

Later, Drogo posts an even stronger defense of Jorah, after Sansa makes a day 2 case on him -

Okay, I'm back. Sansa reread forthcoming, but I don't think her disliking Jorah's worst-possible-role line is worth anything. Tyrion, I believe Sansa's been trying to say that she just thinks it's scummy to open with a line that points out that he has a role (albeit the worst possible role). I think Sansa's barking up an imaginary tree, but I don't think she's suspicious in doing so. What I find suspicious is that she built a case on our least active player.

JORAH I STILL EXPECT YOU TO DEFEND YOURSELF. But anyway:

I don't think he's been that hugely middle-roading.

Low poster sucks, but is not a sign of evil.

Targets on D1 were easy. It was Dany or Not-Dany.

I do not think there was a fake-claim set-up there.

So it's kinda a wussy case, really. Given that the very headstrong Cersei has been harping on Jorah's case, and that he's barely around, I'm quicker to accuse Sansa of finding easy targets rather than Jorah. It is, in fact, this case that makes me want to reread Sansa. Which I will do. After I eat--priorities, you know.

Hmm. That's a pretty blatant defense for a partner. Unless they are going for reverse-distancing, since regular distancing has been so popular lately.

Then later, after all of the reveals, Drogo lists Jorah on top of his suspect list -

Uh, minus myself, I'm not feeling too fond of any of them.

Jorah

Eddard

Jaime

Renly

Syrio

Drogo.

Jorah outranks Eddard because, in the end, Ned's been active, and I appreciate that a hell of a lot more than Jorah's post count. They're probably about equal for me though. I obviously don't suspect myself. Compared to the other four, I really am not too suspicious of Syrio at all.

But he leaves things open to lynch Eddard too. And later he encourages the safe play to lynch Eddard instead of Jorah -

Just woke up. I have, like, ten minutes, depending on when my ride shows up. I agree that there can't be finder+understudy+tracker in the game, or at least that would mean that Team FM is really fucking scary to face up against those odds. That being said, I'm inclined to lynch neither of them today. The CF result on Varys will either clear Petyr or not, and then we can find out which of him and Jorah's lying.

Well, I don't want to lynch myself, obviously. I have felt pretty decent about Syrio throughout the game. I desperately need to do a reread of him, but I suspect that even after a reread, he'd still be my last choice out of all those options.

I suspect Ned as much as Jorah, so I'd prefer lynching him out of our remaining options. Between Jaime and Tyrion, I'd prefer to lynch Tyrion. He's been, imo, FMishly reasonable and helpful, especially when compared to Jaime's blatant middle of the roading. So it goes Ned > Tyrion > Jaime > Syrio > Me.

I can't fault him too much for that, since I came to the same conclusion. But still, in hindsight, it was obviously the wrong move.

Conclusion

There are a few suspicious things here, and I'd definitely suspect Drogo if I thought there was a regular symp alive in this game. But I just don't know that I see him as an FM or promotable symp.

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He did? I don't remember that at all.

As far as I remembered it, Eddard's reaction to Petyr's reveal was exactly same as Sansa's. I couldn't see a difference.

Because I revealed that I was bulletproof yesterday. Did you miss this post?

Yeah, I missed this. Because, you know... well, should I explain you my reasons?

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I have had some time to think this over. Day 2 when I made the case on Jorah, Tyrion questioned the one part of the case that was not fact based (well it was, just my feeling on the fact that he didn't like). Even after it was explained by me more than once, and then by a couple of other people he refused to accept the answer.

While we went back and forth many times NOBODY looked at the rest of my case on Jorah. Tyrion created the perfect distraction and saved Jorah for a couple of days (ok, the finder reveal helped a lot too)

I don't really see anyone else defending Jorah much.

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