[ADWD Spoilers] Jon Snow (cont'd)

[jack88]

This whole thing with Jon left me so messed up after finishing the book that I had to come here and read all these posts to tell myself there's a massive chance he's not actually dead

However, I can't help but think it was a shitty way to end his POVs on in Dance. Would it really have been so hard to end it a chapter earlier with Jon thinking that his war had just begun? I don't want him to die, but I'm gonna be waiting a few years for the confirmation on that, when Martin could have just left that chapter out and thrown his whole death/rebirth arc into the next book

I was also pissed that once again a Stark completely ignored his wolf despite the obvious warning signs and EVEN LARGER warnings from Mel to keep him close to him. She mentions this to him MANY times, and despite being not entirely correct about the Arya/Alys thing, she was still close enough to guess that a girl in grey would come riding up on a pale horse, and for whatever reason Jon ignores her counsel.

I am also completely blown away by the stupidity of Bowen Marsh. He is surrounded by Wildlings now who basically look to the Lord Crow as a source of respect and stuff for letting them through the Wall, and they have basically just seen Bowen Marsh betray him and stab him in the back. The enormity of their situation seems to have escaped Bowen's group entirely. THERE ARE FUCKING ZOMBIES AND MONSTERS COMING TO THE WALL. FUCK!

[ps1]

Jon's dead. They burned his body, they don't want him coming back as a wight. He was a decoy protagonist, like Ned.

[Vikingkingq]

Jon's dead. They burned his body, they don't want him coming back as a wight. He was a decoy protagonist, like Ned.

I'll take that bet.

[generic]

Jon's dead. They burned his body, they don't want him coming back as a wight. He was a decoy protagonist, like Ned.

They can't burn the body if they want to proof to the Boltons that Jon is dead.

[ps1]

They can't burn the body if they want to proof to the Boltons that Jon is dead.

They killed Jon because of the wildling crap he was pulling, especially sacrificing all of the watch's ships to go save wildlings that were already good as dead. Marsh especially was angry at him the entire book and probably plotting it for half of it. Bolton's letter might have given him a good excuse, but he probably would have done it anyways.

[The Sunspear]

They can't burn the body if they want to proof to the Boltons that Jon is dead.

Add to that that the tradition of no character ever dying in their own POV remains upheld throughout Dance, and I don't think Martin would break with it outside of the final book in the series, where I imagine half of the cast are going to drop like flies.

[The White Wolf]

My prediction: Melisandre uses MMD's spell on Jon to raise his cold corpse fomr the dead and heal all of its wounds, initially planning on using Mance's son as the sacrifice. "King's Blood." This can go one of two ways:...

I'm pretty sure Mel already revealed to Jon that she knew the boy isn't Mance's... Though I do not have the book handy, and am not about to go digging to confirm it :P

If Martin kills Ghost he better sign a pledge to leave the other three alone, I don't want to see any more dead direwolves.

I don't think I could handle it if GRRM killed Ghost, and after reading this, and the previous thread it seems to be coming all the more likely :crying: :crying: :crying:

[Yeade]

You forget that the men [Jon] sent to Hardhome from Eastwatch were also there. Along with every ship in their fleet. It's not only thousands of wildings, but also possibly hundreds of brothers, and their entire armada. Cotter Pyke asked Jon to send help by land, I doubt he would have asked that if their need was not very great.

Cotter Pyke, a whole bunch of Eastwatch men, and the entirety of the NW's naval strength are also stranded at Hardhome? Well, in that case, I can't see what other option Jon has except to send at least a token force to rescue his sworn brothers and hopefully net the wildlings' allegiance as a bonus.

This reminds me of a discussion I took part in for another fandom about whether the military commander of a stranded outpost should use his limited resources on a rescue mission to recover a group of lost soldiers and indigenous allies from the enemy's stronghold. After arguing the logistics and potential strategic consequences of such an operation ad nauseam, a poster noted that it likely wouldn't be too good for morale if the troops are under the impression that you'd totally abandon them when the going gets really tough, as it's bound to when you're an isolated force, undermanned and short on supplies, facing an overwhelming foe. I think this applies even more to Jon's situation because he ordered the Eastwatch men to Hardhome. If they get into a fix, he has a certain responsibility to try to get them out, IMO, or risk losing the confidence of the rest of his already frayed army. What motivation does a man fighting an unacknowledged delaying action have to continue taking the kinds of tremendous risks that might win the war if he can't rely on the support of his comrades?

So, can the forces at Hardhome be rescued? Hardhome seems to be roughly the same distance from Eastwatch as the Fist of the First Men is from Castle Black except, as I already mentioned, it might be possible to hug the coastline, making better time than through the Haunted Forest. I still feel naval reinforcements would be helpful, perhaps as a line of supply. ASOS indicates the wildlings have sailors among their number. Any chance of convincing these guys to volunteer to brave the seas of dead things? If I were Jon, I'd also canvas the wildlings for ideas of traveling quickly over snow. And, besides food and conventional weapons, I'd arm the rescuers with obsidian and flint or another mechanism for striking fires fast in cold, wet weather. Maybe Jon ought to send Melisandre. :laugh:

It'd be helpful to know the exact condition of the wildlings and Pyke's men at Hardhome. Whether they're still capable of mounting an offensive, as I believe one of the more effective ways of lifting a siege on a fixed position is for the defenders and relief force to coordinate, hitting the encamped enemy from both sides. It's too bad Jon doesn't have the Westeros equivalent of an airlift, lol.

Though, assuming all Hardhome plans are on hold until Jon's conscious again, I wonder if Bran and Bloodraven might be good for some intelligence on the movements of the Others and wights. There's no doubt a building army of undead beyond the Wall, but it may yet be possible for a mobile column guided by weirwood watchers to elude them. Aerial scouting via skinchangers could prove vital, as well.

You know, I think I've just about convinced myself that a rescue mission to Hardhome could work given a good bit of luck. Furthermore, Jon can plan all this with Tormund and whatever other wildling or NW commanders he decides to send, then sit out the action unless he lets Ghost accompany the rescuers or plies his skinchanging abilities in another way, allowing him plenty of time to, say, heal from his injuries and settle matters on the Wall. Why does this sound so surprisingly plausible to me? :huh:

Jon doesn't help his position by sending his loyal supporters to man the other castles or dispatching Dywen and the other elites out on ranging missions.

The unfortunate consequences of not having nearly enough competent men to hold the Wall, I'm afraid. OTOH, if guesses in this thread about a violent wildling reaction against Bowen Marsh and company prove accurate, Jon may have unwittingly done himself a favor by gathering all the NW undesirables at Castle Black for the wildlings to kill or imprison in a crazy, bloody melee, lol.

ETA:

The longer I consider it, the more I like the military prospects of the wildlings under the command of the NW. The wildlings possess an uncommon level of tactical experience and initiative that, IMO, could make them fantastic foot soldiers provided Jon can exercise tighter strategic and logistic control over the wildlings by placing capable NW men among them. The mammoths and giants can serve as fine tanks and anchors to fighting lines while skinchangers and greenseers form an intelligence branch. As I understand it, the primary weaknesses of the wildlings are lack of steel weapons and discipline, both of which the NW can address. Plus, if Jon adopts a scorched earth policy during a hypothetical retreat south following the fall of the Wall, he's got ready-made raiding parties in the wildlings.

A joint expedition to Hardhome, particularly if successful, would be a giant leap in reconciling the NW and wildlings. Though I think the resulting highly unconventional army might have trouble being on the same battlefield with, say, Stannis's men. Which is perhaps a military reason why Stannis needs to be ousted and Jon assume the authority of King in the North.

One question, though: Does the NW ever receive any shipments of mined obsidian from Dragonstone? Obsidian arrowheads and spear points plus a huge cache of fire arrows are definitely must-haves if you're warring against the Others and wights, IMO.

edit: BBCode formatting

[Ygritte]

They can't burn the body if they want to proof to the Boltons that Jon is dead.

Ding ding ding! :) I had been pondering how he comes to end up frozen instead of BBQd, and I think this is it. Put him in the ice cells, they'll be thinking; then we can trot him out if Ramsay comes.

[Crow's Eye]

Add to that that the tradition of no character ever dying in their own POV remains upheld throughout Dance, and I don't think Martin would break with it outside of the final book in the series, where I imagine half of the cast are going to drop like flies.

Are you forgetting about Cat? Or to a lesser extent, Cressen, Pate, Sixskins, Merrit Frey, Kevan Lannister, etc...

[The Sunspear]

Are you forgetting about Cat? Or to a lesser extent, Cressen, Pate, Sixskins, Merrit Frey, Kevan Lannister, etc...

Cat came back to life; Kevan was in an epilogue; Pate was in a prologue, as was Sixskins (and he warged to safety); Merrit was in an epilogue. Prologues and Epilogues, not being tied to one specific character, are in a league of their own.

[Crow's Eye]

I'm starting to like the Ghost/NissaNissa theory. But I think it has to be Jon who does the killing and not Mel. The one thing that always bothered me about Dany and the claim that she sacrificed Drogo was that Drogo was already dead. She smothered him, not to forge a weapon, but as a mercy. The she burned his corpse, along with a dead horse and a witch she hated. How does that mirror stabbing your own wife in the heart to forge your sword? I was never sold on the dragons being Lightbringer for this exact reason.

[jack88]

This Ghost as NissaNissa theory is starting to freak me the fuck out, especially with that line about him being closer than a wife to Jon. It also seems very Martin-esque

I agree with that comment about Dany sacrificing Drogo too. I've never thought that was a worthy sacrifice

[Steve Moss]

Ding ding ding! :) I had been pondering how he comes to end up frozen instead of BBQd, and I think this is it. Put him in the ice cells, they'll be thinking; then we can trot him out if Ramsay comes.

I like this. And it would lend credence to him having truly died if he is on ice for a time, say three days and nights. :)

[Crow's Eye]

Cat came back to life; Kevan was in an epilogue; Pate was in a prologue, as was Sixskins (and he warged to safety); Merrit was in an epilogue. Prologues and Epilogues, not being tied to one specific character, are in a league of their own.

Maybe so, but she died from her own POV. Which you said had not happened.

I'll give you the prologues/epilogues. That's why I phrased it the way I did.

[The Sunspear]

Maybe so, but she died from her own POV. Which you said had not happened.

I'll give you the prologues/epilogues. That's why I phrased it the way I did.

Fair point; I guess how I should have phrased it is that no one who's died in their own POV has stayed dead. That's my bad. I thought Martin was breaking the mold with poor Quentyn at first, but he stuck it out for three more days like a champ.

[undertow]

If Jon is dead, who will be our new eyes on the wall? Tormund? Alys Karstark? Magnar of Then? Grenn, Pyp, or Edd? Jon's death leaves a big void here. I doubt Melisandre, but I don't have the time to figure out why.

If Jon is revived, what kind shape will he be in? I know one of the theories about the R'hllor resurrection kiss is that the recipient's last mission becomes all-consuming. Is Jon's last mission to take revenge on the Boltons and save 'Arya?' If so, that pretty much leaves him the same, but with a greater potential for ruthlessness, all at the head of a Wildling army.

If Jon survives, will he accept Stannis' offer (assuming Stannis still lives)? The Karstarks claim would be revoked by Stannis, and Jon just revoked his vows. This opens up a quick way to unite the North and get Jon off of the Wall. However, it seems that Rickon will be found sometime next book, so uniting the North can happen without Jon. I guess it opens up the possibility of a Stark-Stark conflict, but Sansa is already going to cause some of that. I guess I don't really see the point of this option.

Also, what happened to Robb's proclamation of Jon? I was expecting some closure.

[undertow]

Add to that that the tradition of no character ever dying in their own POV remains upheld throughout Dance, and I don't think Martin would break with it outside of the final book in the series, where I imagine half of the cast are going to drop like flies.

Didn't Catelyn die in her POV?Somebody beat me to the punch, I see.

[Seerow]

Something I just thought of: In Jon's first two chapters if I recall correctly he is haunted by a certain statement that Maester Aemon makes. Something along the lines of "Kill the child inside Jon, and let the Man be born"

Any thoughts on if there's a connection here?

[undertow]

O, and if Jon's dead, you can say goodbye to the Night Watch. The Wildlings are unlikely to take it well.