405 replies to this topic

[Jon AS]

The Royal Lion, on 21 July 2011 - 08:33 AM, said:

Probably V&I expected that Aegon will come to Westeros with Daenerys and her dragons, which would make Aegon more of a real Targ in the eyes of the Westerosi. And dragons seem to like people with Targ blood (Quentyn not included, he was scared as shit when he saw the dragons) and if dragons decide to eat Aegon, well... he is probably fake. ´till then, I think Aegon is the real deal. Just my own opinion.

No, Dany's dragons were almost certainly not planned for. For starters, you'd think the conspirators would have spent some time to gather dragon lore otherwise. Instead their best hope to learn anything about dragons is to keep Tyrion sober enough to remember whatever he read about the subject years ago.

The dragons are a further complication to their plan.

[Kaitscralt]

Why did Tyrion "bait" Young Griff into going to Westeros early, and not going near Daenerys?

I read the book as soon as it came out and during my current reread I am trying to remember his motives (just got to his early chapter where he says how the princeling took the bait so easily).

Could someone refresh my memory of why Tyrion did this?

[Recently]

Jon AS, on 21 July 2011 - 06:03 AM, said:

That presupposes that anyone except the two of them knows he is fake. As has been pointed out, the need to keep the number of people who know about it as small as possible might be one of the biggest reasons for Varys' lying to Kevan.

And of course a significant number of people believing that Cersei's children are not Robert's hasn't stopped Joffrey and Tommen from holding the throne.

Uh why would he need to lie to a dying man. If he wanted to propagate the rumor or idea that Aegon is real, he would spread rumors (presumably, hes the one in REAL control of the little birds network so he can abuse that and have information sent to the council via Qyburn who thinks hes actually in charge of it.

He tells kevan just to rub it in basically. Not only is he gonna die, hes gonna die knowing that his family is going to be overthrown by the very family they thought they eliminated.

I'm inclined to believe hes the real Aegon. Does it seem a bit strange that Illyerio has strong affections for him? Maybe a little, but it could also just be because hes genuinely fond of him. Illyerio has shown that he is very sentimental, what with his devotion to Serra, and long lasting friendship with varys.

In general it seems to risky and far more time consuming to try to raise up a fake Aegon. It would just be simpler for Varys to just have maintained manipulating things behind the scenes.

[Recently]

Kaitscralt, on 21 July 2011 - 08:57 AM, said:

Why did Tyrion "bait" Young Griff into going to Westeros early, and not going near Daenerys?

I read the book as soon as it came out and during my current reread I am trying to remember his motives (just got to his early chapter where he says how the princeling took the bait so easily).

Could someone refresh my memory of why Tyrion did this?

He was telling him what he would have done if he was in Aegon's shoes. Basically the advice is pretty good imo. If he and the golden company did manage to get to meereen, they probably would have been treated similarly to how quentyn was treated. (dany is still ga-ga for daario, the golden company is considerably smaller than the army dorne can provide, and its somewhat questionable as to if aegon can back up his claim as to being related)

I don't feel like he was baiting him at all; He didn't actually think that Aegon would end up following his advice(during his abduction by jorah, he thought/hoped that they would run into the golden company again and that he would be saved)

[Jon AS]

Recently, on 21 July 2011 - 08:58 AM, said:

Uh why would he need to lie to a dying man.

Because. He. Is. Not. Alone. With. Kevan.

There are more arguments to be made, like he tries to think of "Aegon" as the real deal at all times to make sure the secret isn't betrayed by a slip of the tongue, villain's expositions are clichéd and usually ill-advised etc.

ETA: Sorry if this post comes across as hostile. I've just lost track of how often this has been brought up.

Edited by Jon AS, 21 July 2011 - 09:12 AM.

[cteresa]

Kaitscralt, on 21 July 2011 - 08:57 AM, said:

Why did Tyrion "bait" Young Griff into going to Westeros early, and not going near Daenerys?

I read the book as soon as it came out and during my current reread I am trying to remember his motives (just got to his early chapter where he says how the princeling took the bait so easily).

Could someone refresh my memory of why Tyrion did this?

Recently, Tyrion definitely is manipulating YG. Later in the book he thinks himself of the term "bait" which seems very conclusive.

Also keep in mind that during one of YG´s lessons with the halfmaester which Tyrion attends, there is a joke about the lesson learnt on that lesson, paraphrasing "if you want to conquer the world you better have dragons".

Kait, my opinion is conning YG and Connington. Why? Possibilites
- Tyrion might ressent the whole conspiracy trying to use him (And IMO that is something as well not too clear. what exactly does Varys want him to do?)
- Tyrion wants as little competition as possible, he wants to get to Dany first, or before YG does.
- Tyrion wants to revenge himself on his family maybe by creating a rebellion they need to deal;
Maybe a combination of all of those.

[reiver]

Recently, on 21 July 2011 - 09:04 AM, said:

He was telling him what he would have done if he was in Aegon's shoes. Basically the advice is pretty good imo. If he and the golden company did manage to get to meereen, they probably would have been treated similarly to how quentyn was treated. (dany is still ga-ga for daario, the golden company is considerably smaller than the army dorne can provide, and its somewhat questionable as to if aegon can back up his claim as to being related)

That would have been more interesting than Quentyn imo. Not getting at Quentyn but he did take Dany's dismissal of him rather meekly. Ok he stubbornly stuck around but I doubt Jon Connington would have taken his Prince being ignored or passed over very well. That said flakey aesthete Dany would probably have thought Aegon was hot which makes all the difference even when you're pretending to yourself all you do is for your people. !_!

Saying that i suppose Aegon hasn't raped and killed enough to be Dany's type.

[cteresa]

The quote

“Last night the talk here was all of Westeros. Some exiled lord has hired the Golden Company to win back his lands for him. Half the captains in Volantis are racing upriver to Volon Therys to offer him their ships.”
Tyrion had just swallowed another locust. He almost choked on it. Is he mocking me? How much could he know of Griff and Aegon? “Bugger,” he said. “I meant to hire the Golden Company myself, to win me Casterly Rock.” Could this be some ploy of Griff’s, false reports deliberately spread? Unless … Could the pretty princeling have swallowed the bait? Turned them west instead of east, abandoning his hopes of wedding Queen Daenerys? Abandoning the dragons … would Griff allow that? “I’ll gladly hire you as well, ser. My father’s seat is mine by rights. Swear me your sword, and once I win it back I’ll drown you in gold.”

It implies pretty strongly Tyrion is pleasantly surprised by YG and Griff turning to Westeros and him thinking that the real important thing is Dany and the dragons.

Plus the other (redundant compared to this passage)

“And what lesson can we draw from Volantene history?”
“If you want to conquer the world, you best have dragons.”
Tyrion could not help but laugh.

Tyrion sent YG and Griff (misguided by nostalgia) on a quest to Westeros which Tyrion KNEW was a  stupid step for their ambitions. Speculations above.

More interestingly is how Varys and Illyrio react to it - we have only seen Varys killing Kevan.

[Kaitscralt]

Recently, on 21 July 2011 - 09:04 AM, said:

He was telling him what he would have done if he was in Aegon's shoes. Basically the advice is pretty good imo. If he and the golden company did manage to get to meereen, they probably would have been treated similarly to how quentyn was treated. (dany is still ga-ga for daario, the golden company is considerably smaller than the army dorne can provide, and its somewhat questionable as to if aegon can back up his claim as to being related)

I don't feel like he was baiting him at all; He didn't actually think that Aegon would end up following his advice(during his abduction by jorah, he thought/hoped that they would run into the golden company again and that he would be saved)

Yes but he used the word "bait," and I took that as a negative connontation, as if Tyrion were trying to mislead or do wrong to YG's cause. Although like another poster said, maybe he just wants Cersei to have to deal with one more problem.

[Memory Lane]

cteresa said:

Tyrion sent YG and Griff (misguided by nostalgia) on a quest to Westeros which Tyrion KNEW was a stupid step for their ambitions. Speculations above.

I think it was Tyrion's way of getting back at Varys for manipulating him, throwing a problem into Cersei's face, and eliminating potential competition for Daenerys once he's at her side and she's sailing to Westeros. Even if Aegon and the Golden Company manage to rally Dorne (unlikely unless Doran Martell has found out about Quentyn's death before his arrival, and I don't know if that fits with the timeline), he wouldn't realistically be able to do more than bleed Tyrell and Lannister forces before he is defeated and killed/forced into exile with the survivors.

The irony (and GRRM is very fond of irony) would be if Aegon's cause actually had some serious military successes, and ends up in a major position of power before Daenerys arrives.

Edited by Guardsman Bass, 21 July 2011 - 09:37 AM.

[cteresa]

Guardsman Bass, on 21 July 2011 - 09:37 AM, said:

The irony (and GRRM is very fond of irony) would be if Aegon's cause actually had some serious military successes, and ends up in a major position of power before Daenerys arrives.

Any position of power before Dany arrives will probabably not be *too* strong anyway compared to dragons. As seen from the quote above, GRRM is strongly foreshadowing that. The game  over westeros throne is NOT what the series is really about, nor being in control of it going to matter that much compared to dragons.

And I think there are very strong hints that Tyrion wanted to get to Dany first and without the others, for his own motives.

[Targaryen loyalist]

My impression from the Epilogue is that Varys is not so disappointed by the fact that Aegon decided to land in the Stormlands with the GC.

I think Varys wanted to kill Kevan and Pycelle to divide the Lannister-Tyrell alliance in any case, and Aegon's invasion simply forced him to move faster.

[cteresa]

Targaryen loyalist, on 21 July 2011 - 09:52 AM, said:

My impression from the Epilogue is that Varys is not so disappointed by the fact that Aegon decided to land in the Stormlands with the GC.

I think Varys wanted to kill Kevan and Pycelle to divide the Lannister-Tyrell alliance in any case, and Aegon's invasion simply forced him to move faster.

Yes, my impression is as well that Varys is not showing displeasure. And he presents a good excuse to why he is killing Kevan, to have the kingdom at war again.  Illyrion sent Aegon to chase Dany though. But the problem with Varys and Illyrio is we do not know enough or anything with certainty. Are they always in accord about everything?

[Raventhal]

I think the point is that no matter how much time is made that the dragons are worth the risk and wait.  As you see with Meereen with 2 grown dragons(if they're even grown) they are pretty much unstopable force alone.

Aegon's conquest is like Mount and Blade(great game) when you support a claimant.  You conquer and convince other lords of your lords claim to the throne.

[Manderly`s Personal Chef]

Maybe Varys and Illyrio are working against each other?  

[cteresa]

Not necessarily against each other. But I think they are of one mind, and one objective, in everything. Or at least, not without some stronger foundations to be sure of that.

[Kadence]

Sualk, on 17 July 2011 - 12:34 PM, said:

In regard to the Illyrio and Sera theory, what makes it tantalizing is all these little tidbits we were given. We just happened to get a sense of what Illyrio looked like when he was younger. And then later on, we just happened to get a view of what Sera looked like before she died. Then, so as to get our attention once more, we have Tyrion ruminating on why Illyrio is so invested in this plot to seat "Aegon" on the throne. Too many things add up for this all to be nothing more than casual coincidence. All the puzzle pieces fit.

Hm yes. I hadn't thought of him being Illyrio's son until this topic and now do think it might be the most likely explanation. However I would be very unsatisfied with it for this reason:

cteresa, on 17 July 2011 - 10:46 AM, said:

YG as Illyrio´s son, I really think it is overreaching. He has no apparent heirs or children, risk his only child to gain it something which might of dubious importance (Littlefinger for example would find the throne not nearly as important as the ones behind it with the real power) and then have to deny it always? He is a far more powerful person than to have to risk his only child on something very likely to get it killed - and even if it works the child is lost to the father, and without guarantees of the safety of a dynasty.

For the reasons cteresa details, this is a very strange action for Illyrio to take. If he cared so much for Serra's son why not raise the boy himself? Why leave him completely out of his life, to be raised by strangers, to take the huge risk to his life by trying to win the throne...when Illyrio won't even be known as his father? This just does not seem like a realistic set of decisions.

Based on the things stated in this topic I think Illyrio might be the best bet to be Aegon's father, but I sure wouldn't like it. His actions wouldn't really fit with human nature. Either you want your son to succeed because you love him (in which case you'd want to be part of his life), or to use him to your profit (but if Illyrio is just unknown mystery dad, what's the profit?). Illyrio's actions with Aegon would be extremely contrived.

[Kadence]

Sualk, on 17 July 2011 - 07:29 PM, said:

Answer: Anybody with a dragon.

It makes sense with the prophecy as well (i.e., slayer of lies). Daenerys, or rather, one of her dragons, will expose him.

Him getting burned by a dragon would hardly expose him as a lie. A dragon would probably burn the crap out of Jon as well, it doesn't mean anything. Viserys was no fake either, his legal claim was obviously superior to Dany's. Egg and his son Prince Duncan, Queen Rhaenyra who got eaten by her little brother's dragon and so on - none were "fake", in fact since Egg/Rhaenyra etc. were generations in the past and less diluted they had more Valyrian/Aegon the Conqueror blood than Dany does.

Sualk, on 17 July 2011 - 09:03 PM, said:

Incidentally, I imagine the whole wrinkle about dragons recognizing those with Targaryen blood was invented so "Aegon" could be found out as a fraud and so that Jon Snow could be confirmed as the son of R + L.

Quentyn Martell probably has at least as much "dragon blood" as Brown Ben Plumm. Most of the great houses in Westeros are probably direct descendants of Aegon the Conqueror. I find the notion of the dragons responding well to mad Aerys pretty questionable as well, and he was Dany's own dad and the source of her claim. I don't really see how the dragons can be considered a dragon detection system. It would be completely untrustworthy and inconsistent.

There has to be some other way for Aegon to be revealed as a fake. Now it might have to do with dragons - but it wouldn't be because of "Targaryen blood", it would be because she used the dragon to terrifying someone like Varys or Illyrio into spilling the beans.

Sualk, on 17 July 2011 - 08:09 PM, said:

The whole theme of the prophecy is that things come in three for her. It would be odd if the prophecy referred to her as "bride of fire" except, you know, when you got married the second time -- we won't count that.

It has nothing to do with how many people she has slept with. That's irrelevant. She can sleep with Daario all she wants, or Victarion for that matter, or even Tyrion, but she will only marry three times and she has already married twice.

Yes, I interpreted the "slayer of lies" to be about Stannis=Azhor Azai, the mummer's dragon, and the stone beast. And for Dany to have three husbands, Drogo, the corpse (I would guess Euron), and the blue flower (Jon presumably).

The problem there is as you say, why would Hizdahr not be mentioned? And a 4th husband doesn't fit the themes of three. Though really I suspect this is simply because the Hizdahr nonsense was just some crap Martin pulled out of his ass, and he'd never intended for Dany to have more than 3 husbands until after he started Dance. Hizdahr not fitting into the vision will probably just be ignored by the author, I think, and she'll end up having 4 husbands. Because it would require some serious shoehorning for Hizdahr to become a bright eyed corpse on a ship smiling with grey lips.

In any case Dany's vision, and Moqorro's false dragons visoin, indicate that Aegon is probably a fake. I'd be annoyed if he was Illyrio's boy, but unfortunately him being Illyrio and Serra's kid looks to be the best guess at the moment.

[Plunja of Braavos]

Kadence, on 21 July 2011 - 10:43 AM, said:

Based on the things stated in this topic I think Illyrio might be the best bet to be Aegon's father,

Don't know if this has been brought up yet. I just read it in the comments to ADWD review at A.V. Club:

Aegon is "stillborn son" of Ashara Dayne. Similar colorings. Aegon taken away from Ashara to be raised as a Targ and brought back at  afuture date. Ashara jumps from the tower because of this.

I like this theory. It makes Aegon the "Mummer's Dragon". It may explain why Ned never wanted to speak of Ashara, if Ned knew about it. Maybe when Ned was down south looking for a milk mother for Jon (assuming R+L=J) he mentions that young Aegon's head was bashed in so badly it was unrecognizable. This puts event sinto motion that ended with Ashara's kid taken away. Ashara Dayne continues to be brought up throughout these books too. Barristan recalls her. It's a good theory I think.

[Kadence]

Ashara according to Barristan had a stillborn daughter, not a stillborn son.

Which might be a false report and she's Young Griff's mother. But if that's the case then she's Lemore. Wouldn't make any sense at all for him to be Ashara's son yet for Ashara not to be Lemore.

I would much preer Ned+Ashara=Aegon however I think based on the Illyrio/Serra story, the amount of attention focused on Illyrio and Serra's looks and so on, that it is the stronger theory.