[ADWD Spoilers] Dorne's true strength

[you wouldn't know me]

I might be missing something obvious here but why didn't Robb take the hill folk South with him? I get that they might have been needed to hold the North but it still seems like a waste of 2000(?) men.

[Blue Steel]

I might be missing something obvious here but why didn't Robb take the hill folk South with him? I get that they might have been needed to hold the North but it still seems like a waste of 2000(?) men.

He did take some of them. As Jon pointed out, mustering the hill folk is not the same as mustering the other bannermen, and it would have presumeably taken more time, which Robb really didn't have.

[acadia]

I believe their strength is in their Sicilian ancestry and mafioso family ties.

[you wouldn't know me]

He did take some of them. As Jon pointed out, mustering the hill folk is not the same as mustering the other bannermen, and it would have presumeably taken more time, which Robb really didn't have.

Thanks for clearing that up, I always seem to forget Robb was in a hurry to head South to try and save Ned, it's easy to forget what started the whole war.

[Markus]

From what GRRM has said the forces of the North, the Vale and Dorne are "roughly equal". The North being so large and life being harsher there people are more reluctant to go to war though.

[Reyne]

Riverlands- already in disarray when Robb marches down. Many houses were destroyed or brought low during Robert's Rebellion, since not all the Tully bannermen were loyal to Hoster Tully and many stayed on the side of Aerys. The Riverlands strength is already depleted, although the Brackens, Blackwoods, Mallisters, and Freys seem to be untouched at the outset. I would estimate around 50 to 60k men before Gregor starts torching/pillaging his way through and defeating small bands of individual lords' armies.

Vale- unknown, but with a number of powerful houses of which the main one is Royce. Probably in the vicinity of 70k men.

Where are you getting these #s from?

I would put the Riverlands at about 30,000, the Vale at about the same level. You're having the Riverlands as strong as the Reach, and the Vale strongest in the Seven Kingdoms.

Reach- Tyrells and bannermen made up most of Renly's 80 to 100k army, so probably about 60k men. The remaining were Storm Lords.

Stormlands- around 30k on Renly's side and probably another 30k on Stannis's side.

Remember that Stannis didn't get any of Renly's infantry. Just 4/5 of the cavalry (including many from the Reach, presumably... though it's odd none of them showed up in the text.)

[Markus]

I would put the Riverlands at about 30,000, the Vale at about the same level.

When Dorne is the least populous region and the Vale can raise roughly equal numbers then the Riverlands should be ahead of both of them because GRRM has stated that the Riverlands are actually "rich, fertile and populous". Their problem seems to have been that they suffer from divided leadership and their unfortunate location.

[Chaostics]

Lets get GRRM to put forth some numbers for us. Anyone have his number?>

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Lets get GRRM to put forth some numbers for us. Anyone have his number?>

hahaha. You read my mind

[Jon Connington's Return]

Where are you getting these #s from?

I would put the Riverlands at about 30,000, the Vale at about the same level. You're having the Riverlands as strong as the Reach, and the Vale strongest in the Seven Kingdoms.

Remember that Stannis didn't get any of Renly's infantry. Just 4/5 of the cavalry (including many from the Reach, presumably... though it's odd none of them showed up in the text.)

Edited original post for clarity since I did it a very strange way; basically the Riverlands, the Vale, and Dorne include all possible fighting men in my counts while the others only include the standing armies we know of. I just estimated the Storm Lords. I realize when it comes to war the Reach has the most able bodied men, with the West being second due to being so rich.

I extrapolated figures from the North, figuring that Robb probably brought a third of all possible men. Then since the North is the least populated after Dorne, the other Kingdoms have more.

I guess the overall figures including anyone who could fight would be:

Reach: 100,000 (at some point, 80k Tyrell swords is mentioned)

West: 80,000

Vale: 70,000

Riverlands: 70,000 (although the true number is much less, since many smallfolk were butchered before being able to rally into an army).

Stormlands: 70,000 (complete guess)

North: 60,000

Dorne: 50,000

[Spring Bass]

Reach: 100,000 (at some point, 80k Tyrell swords is mentioned)

West: 80,000

Vale: 70,000

Riverlands: 70,000 (although the true number is much less, since many smallfolk were butchered before being able to rally into an army).

Stormlands: 70,000 (complete guess)

North: 60,000

Dorne: 50,000

The Reach figure of 80,000 is realistic, but that's because the Reach is the most populous region. The Westerlands figure is 30,000 to 40,000, which is a bit less than the North, but around the same as the Vale and Riverlands. Dorne and the Stormlands are much lower, at 20-25,000.

And of course, medieval counting applies. Dorne might actually have 22,397 spears, but that's close enough.

We've had a couple of good discussions about this before ADWD came out.

[Werthead]

Ran and GRRM discussed ideas for the military strength of the houses for the first RPG released in 2005. GRRM said some of the numbers were off in truth, but that broadly speaking they're the numbers that people in Westeros believe to be accurate (which explains why Dorne's numbers in AFFC are lower than in the RPG).

The North: 45,000. Robb only had time to gather about half before going to war.

The Riverlands: 45,000.

The Iron Islands: 20,000 (mostly on ships).

The Vale: 45,000.

The Westerlands: 50,000.

The Stormlands: 30,000.

The Reach: over 100,000 (including levies, green boys and old men; 18,000 from Oldtown and the Hightower lands alone).

Dorne: 50,000 (but GRRM in later interviews indicated it might more like 25-30,000 in reality).

I believe these the closest figures we have that have GRRM's semi-seal of approval.

Though after ADWD I'm wondering if the North's figures are too high as well. If the North still had 20-25,000 fighting men available, we didn't see much evidence of them. Most of Roose's forces seem to be the remnants of the original Northern host taken south with Robb, most of Stannis' forces are the 5,000 he brought north in the first place and so on.

EDIT: This thread contains a lot of discussion on this topic.

[Lord Varys]

One should keep in mind that the numbers change a lot. One famine, and all bets are off. A very hard winter, and all bets are off. A great plague and all bets are off. And so on. Dorne really could have had its 50,000 spears back during the Conquest. Now they might no longer have them.

[Werthead]

The linked thread shows an interesting pattern where Dorne always sends 10,000 men to aid the Iron Throne. They sent 10,000 men to help the Targaryens at the Battle of the Redgrass Field and later sent 10,000 men to join Rhaegar's army on the Trident. If we assume they always send between one-third and one-half of their military potential, that seems to track with the figures suggested elsewhere (i.e. they may claim 50,000 but it's more like 25,000-30,000 at best). It'd be interesting to speculate why Dorne (or indeed the Seven Kingdoms as a whole) has not experienced any significant population growth in the intervening 105-odd years, despite very long periods of peace (although the Great Spring Sickness sounds like it was utterly horrendous, maybe not at Black Death levels but still very severe, so that could explain it).

[Faint]

There is also to consider that a figure of 25,000 to 30,000 for Dorne, as suggested above by Werthead, is actually quite considerable in the context of right now. The North, the Westerlands, the Riverlands, and the Stormlands are probably fielding armies half the size of the figures quoted above or less.

I imagine the North is less or equal to 20,000 by now, with the figure soon to decrease another 5,000 or so.

The Riverlands might be down to less than 20,000 as well, if not more, since their region was the hardest hit. I imagine all the Freys will be slaughtered so the combined force of the Riverlands is likely to soon experience a reduction of at least 5,000 men.

The Westerlands forces might be 30,000 to 35,0000 strong at this point, but it's scattered across the Riverlands and with Kevan dead and Jaime missing in action, almost completely leaderless.

As for the Stormlands, I'd be surprised if they have more than 12,000 men at this point and very likely have less. Their forces in the North are dropping precipitously and those in the South are under siege. I don't know what will be left by the time the Others come.

[Selmy]

I imagine Dornishmen are just pretty fond of throwing around the 50k number.

If Dorne is the least populated, the North can't be too far behind. Robb marches south with what, 20k soldiers? But he leaves without all of his bannermen and their are some people apparently left in reserve like the mountain clans. So figure maybe 30k.

So I'd put Dorne at around the same 25-30k full strength.

Also, Connington about a Dornish alliance or whatever. Obviously Aegon needs support from some of the high houses. Take the stormlands with a mercenary army isn't going to win the Iron Throne and I think Dorne is just the obvious choice as a foundation.

[Jon Connington's Return]

The linked thread shows an interesting pattern where Dorne always sends 10,000 men to aid the Iron Throne. They sent 10,000 men to help the Targaryens at the Battle of the Redgrass Field and later sent 10,000 men to join Rhaegar's army on the Trident. If we assume they always send between one-third and one-half of their military potential, that seems to track with the figures suggested elsewhere (i.e. they may claim 50,000 but it's more like 25,000-30,000 at best). It'd be interesting to speculate why Dorne (or indeed the Seven Kingdoms as a whole) has not experienced any significant population growth in the intervening 105-odd years, despite very long periods of peace (although the Great Spring Sickness sounds like it was utterly horrendous, maybe not at Black Death levels but still very severe, so that could explain it).

Probably no population growth simply because it's a story. Same reason that technology has never progressed at all over thousands and thousands of years (Age of Heroes, etc.). I found that part the most odd of all tbh. Our medieval ages we traditionally think of were what, basically from 800 to 1300 or so? I guess you could consider the fall of Rome to the fall of Constantinople as well for about 1000 years, but the ASoIaF world has had many millenia of intelligent population basically stuck in those times.

[TheDanish]

Probably the main advantage of Dorne at this point is that it's the only kingdom (along with the Vale) that hasn't been damaged by war. In addition, because of his position, perhaps Dorne can produce food supplies even during winter.

I imagine this is why Dorne is considered so powerful at this point. I think there are a couple references throughout the series of the south's ability to grow food during winter, but I can't recall any quotes off the top of my head, nor can I remember if "the south" in this context was ever clearly defined.

Also, Dorne's willingness to use female soldiers probably helps.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Even if it is around 35k or so, these are likely highly skilled warriors b/c of Dorne's martial culture. Combine them with the Golden Company (some bad mofos), Stormland Houses (also very martial), and some Reach Houses (Tarly? Hightower), the sky is the limit.

[BrainFireBob]

Probably no population growth simply because it's a story. Same reason that technology has never progressed at all over thousands and thousands of years (Age of Heroes, etc.). I found that part the most odd of all tbh. Our medieval ages we traditionally think of were what, basically from 800 to 1300 or so? I guess you could consider the fall of Rome to the fall of Constantinople as well for about 1000 years, but the ASoIaF world has had many millenia of intelligent population basically stuck in those times.

I'd argue that's a misinterpretation. Equating Valyria with the fall of the Western Empire, would place the Conquest 200 years early, and the technology we see in Westeros, barring fire arms, is consistent with a high medieval society, three hundred years later.

The part that doesn't directly jive is the evolution of knighthood. In Martin's world, knighthood wasn't an invention of the feudal period resulting in a need for horsemen; it has its apparent roots in the cataphrakt inspiration for knighthood; heavily armed (probably holy) warriors on horseback owing allegiance to the state.