[ ADwD Spoilers ] Jon Connington and Young Griff

[Akhôrahil]

Because Danerys Targaryen, Stormborn, Unburnt, Mother of Dragons, Queen of Meereen, Queen of the Andals and the Rhoynar and the First Men, Khaleesi of the Great Grass Sea, and Blood of the Dragon is the most humble girl in the entire series.

Eh, that's just the "trappings of power" that Melisandre keeps talking about (and correctly so). Just another kind of floppy ears.

[tipopellet]

Personally, I nurse the suspicion that Aegon is a Blackfyre through his mother and V&I are Blackfyre loyalists (with Illyrio as his father). This helps to explain:

Why the Golden Company is so keen to join him.

Why Varys inflamed the paranoia of the Mad King, yet wants to restore the Targs.

Why Illyrio sent the only known Targ pretenders to the Dothraki sea to die.

Why Aegon looks like a Targ.

It also helps to explain a vision that Moroqqo has in the Tyrion chapter about dark dragons and light dragons and Tyrion snarling in middle of them. The Targ dragon is red on black (a bright dragon) while the Balckfyre dragon is black on red (a dark dragon) and Tyrion has been snarling in Aegon's company and presumably will be snarling in Dany's court in the next book.

I like this theory as well. No other I read so far explains the bolded part.

[kg1982]

I do think that Aegon's so-called education amongst the common folk, designed to make him humble and understanding, has not succeeded. Partially that's because he knows he is a Prince and destined for a kingdom, but also because he's never really felt it. His life has always been sheltered, unlike Daenerys, who knew hunger and fear when she was dragged around the Free Cities by Viserys in her early childhood, and sold to Khal Drogo*.

Not to mention that he gets implicitly linked to Aegon V on a number of occasions, both with the "education amongst the smallfolk" point, and with the straw hat he's wearing when Tyrion first sees him. Aegon V spent his youth among the common folk with Ser Duncan, but it didn't make him a great leader. He was a good man, but as Ser Barristan remembers, he was a poor King, and his reign was turbulent due to his mistakes.

* I think it's interesting to compare Aegon to Jon. Both had a "sharp lesson" in their own ways: Jon from Donal Noye when the latter cut him down to size, Aegon from Tyrion when the latter pointed out that he was a nobody with a claim that Daenerys was unlikely to respect at face value

There is an interesting contrast between Egg and Jon on this subject. Jon mentions that Ned told him and Robb that a lord should love his men, but he should not be friends with them. Jon takes this to one extreme by completely isolating himself from the four or five people who could have given him good advice. That ends up getting him killed. In contrast, it seems that Egg was given a certain sort of Arthurian education among the commoners. This might have instilled a sense of fairness and justice in Egg, but it didn't prepare him to lead. I suspect that this was because Egg was never meant to lead; he just ended up king by default. As for fakeAegon, he seems to have never received the humility that this education was supposed to provide because he, unlike Egg, was always told he would be king.

As for lessons, I wonder if Tyrion will be the one to provide Dany with a sharp wake-up call.

[Wouter]

There is an interesting contrast between Egg and Jon on this subject. Jon mentions that Ned told him and Robb that a lord should love his men, but he should not be friends with them. Jon takes this to one extreme by completely isolating himself from the four or five people who could have given him good advice. That ends up getting him killed. In contrast, it seems that Egg was given a certain sort of Arthurian education among the commoners. This might have instilled a sense of fairness and justice in Egg, but it didn't prepare him to lead. I suspect that this was because Egg was never meant to lead; he just ended up king by default. As for fakeAegon, he seems to have never received the humility that this education was supposed to provide because he, unlike Egg, was always told he would be king.

As for lessons, I wonder if Tyrion will be the one to provide Dany with a sharp wake-up call.

Interesting observations, and I quite agree (allthough Jon couldn't help but make friends among those he had around him anyway, it seems to me - he may have sent Pyp and Grenn and co away but soon enough Leathers and co like him...).

I also agree that Tyrion will be the political brains behind much of Dany's moves in the future.

[Wouter]

By the way, does anybody think Jon Connington was a bit of an a**hole to his "cousins" at Griffin's Roost? Since he was stripped of his lands by Aerys and not restored by Robert (for obvious reasons), he can't really say that his family "stole" the castle from him. His treatment of the girl and the young boy in particular is icecold; he says he wanted to get to know them but as soon as the boy has an emotional outburst he locks all of them back up again. He also more or less threatens to kill (one of) them if Red Ronnet would attempt to retake his castle.

And since he is gay (and not willing to marry anyway a la Renly, as he makes clear to the halfmaester) and dying from Grayscale, one of those (be it Red Ronnet himself or one of his 3 hostages) is actually his heir even if Aegon wins and restores Jon to his old castle - he has no other possible heirs.

[darrylzero]

I've posted elsewhere that it is possible there was a double switch. Elia initially switched Aegon with a Dayne child (possibly Ashara's, but who knows) and sent Aegon to Dorne, where he was raised by Daynes and became Darkstar. Varys then switched the Dayne child, thinking he was Aegon, with another child, who got killed by the Mountain. This theory does not require that even Varys know that YG is a fake Aegon.

It seems like most people who are critiquing this theory are focused on Darkstar as a poor candidate. But whether or not we agree with Darkstar, it's an intriguing idea that makes more sense to me than most of the theories I've seen that try to combine:

1) Ashara Dayne killing herself as a result of her "stillborn" baby being murdered in Aegon's place, and

2) YG not being Aegon.

Since my inclination is to believe the second, and I find something very compelling about the first, I'm intrigued. However, do we really believe that Varys as we have come to know him could have been deceived in this way? I'm skeptical. Are there reasons we believe Varys could have somehow missed the first baby switch?

[ARYa_Nym]

1) Ashara Dayne killing herself as a result of her "stillborn" baby being murdered in Aegon's place

People think this? Wasn't Ashara's stillborn baby a girl?

[Miriamele]

People think this? Wasn't Ashara's stillborn baby a girl?

Ser Barristan believes the baby was a girl, but there is no evidence. They might have circulated rumours that the baby was a girl to cover up the switch.

[ARYa_Nym]

There's no evidence there even was a baby since Ned Dayne didn't know about it.

[Lummel]

By the way, does anybody think Jon Connington was a bit of an a**hole to his "cousins" at Griffin's Roost? Since he was stripped of his lands by Aerys and not restored by Robert (for obvious reasons), he can't really say that his family "stole" the castle from him.

You begin to realise why he probably wasn't a terribly successful Hand, apart from not burning Stony Sept to the ground.

It doesn't bode well for how he will try to manage with the claims of the Golden Company for lands they were dispossessed of.

[Tom Sawyer]

I really hope that Aegon's real and is the third head of the dragon that everyone's been talking about, or else the whole subplot becomes completely pointless. While I think that he's a spoiled brat who'd make a crappy king and seems totally unrelated to Varys's description of him at the end of the book, his being some random fake thrown into the middle of the series for the sake of another bloated plotline that goes nowhere would be fairly lame.

It would be a twist for the sake of a twist and not a twist that adds value to the story.

[Wouter]

You begin to realise why he probably wasn't a terribly successful Hand, apart from not burning Stony Sept to the ground.

It doesn't bode well for how he will try to manage with the claims of the Golden Company for lands they were dispossessed of.

Yes, this is going to make him staunch enemies rather than friends, especially in the Reach where many of those exiles seem to be claiming land (the Peakes etc). If the Golden Company wins, a lot of lords may lose castles and lands so all the more reason to stay true to Mace and co.

Really, Jon should have been doing everything he could to reassure his "cousins" instead of treating them like curiosities to be brought out for half a meal and then locked away again. He should be trying to gain them to his side and Aegon's side. It's no use to claim the castle from Red Ronnet, he will die soon and he will leave no heirs but Red Ronnet and his family. Not a terribly nice man and not terribly smart either, at least not in people management. If even the Conningtons aren't with him, then who will be?

Tom Sawyer; Aegon is very likely the mummer's dragon and thus his chances to succeed are low (and he committed with his dragons far away from the main theatre, a mistake in Cyvasse apparently, and probably a mistake in the Game of Thrones, too). The plot has the advantage that it explains what the hell Varys and Illyrio were doing with their Targaryen heirs in AGOT though - getting them in a position to be killed in the Dothraki waste makes more sense now, as does Varys' contradictory behaviour of pouring poison in Aerys' ear yet being an alleged Targaryen diehard on the other hand. If he is playing for his own Targ or Blackfyre pretender, that would explain things nicely.

This particular twist has been predicted on those forums since ASOS came out, maybe even before.

[Jem]

People think this? Wasn't Ashara's stillborn baby a girl?

What better to further invalidate a child that you want to hide? A dead baby is nothing; a dead girl baby is less than nothing. Not even worth speculating about or investigating.

[ARYa_Nym]

I think if there was a child it's Allyria. That is why Edric didn't know about it.

[CrypticWeirwood]

Aren’t the Golden Company the sworn enemies of the Targayrens, being Blackfyre supporters instead? Why would they support Aegon as a Targ then?

[Jem]

Aren’t the Golden Company the sworn enemies of the Targayrens, being Blackfyre supporters instead? Why would they support Aegon as a Targ then?

I know, right. And the Golden Company are known in Westeros to be the remnants of exiles, rebels and failed usurpers. They hardly lend Aegon any credibility.

[Nukelavee]

Anybody here consider YG is actually Rhagar's, but not Elia's? If R+L=YG...you have a real Targ , just not the right Targ. He's still an imposter, but... he's teh real thing.

[Jem]

Anybody here consider YG is actually Rhagar's, but not Elia's? If R+L=YG...you have a real Targ , just not the right Targ. He's still an imposter, but... he's teh real thing.

Yes, I think he is Ashara Dayne's...I mean Septa Lemore's... child with Rhaegar.

[corbon]

I think it is worth mentioning that what we see in the House of the Undying isn't immeadiately described as a "mummer's dragon." Dany later uses that phrase when she talks to Ser Jorah. The actual description of what Dany sees is "a cloth dragon swayed on polls amidst a cheering crowd." It is pretty clear that Dany sees a fake dragon that mummers use.

Indeed.

It is still entirely possible that the mummer's dragon and the cloth dragon swaying on poles are two separate things and not related. It could be a nice little bit of misdirection by GRRM to use Dany's earlier phrase to point us in the wrong direction.

The prophecy itself was not the same as Quaithe's warning.

It is probably a bit more likely, with very limited other hard data, that the 'lie of the cloth dragon' is the same as 'the mummer's dragon that shouldn't be trusted'. But it is by no means as certain as many people infer.

[Miriamele]

When I first read about the cloth dragon it reminded me of the first Dunk and Egg story. Isn't it possible that GRRM is misdirecting us and this vision is something we need to take literally. I mean something important happening in a fair? Someone hiding among mummers? The Red Wedding was shown how it happened, Grey Wind's head sewn on Robb's neck, not a wolf-headed man symbolizing Robb.

BTW Dunk and Egg are mentioned a lot. Bran's vision, Maester Aemon's advice, Ser Barristan... Will their story be somehow important? Especially Egg's death which involved sorcery?