When Arya was in the dungeon with the dragon skulls she overhears 2 men talking about starting a war and overthrowing the king. GRRM makes it clear that they were Varys and Illyrio, and later confirms it in various interviews. I think that they are planning to put a Targaryen on the Iron Throne, probably because Varys remained loyal to them after Robert's Rebellion. So if he remained loyal to them, why would he in the very next chapter advise Robert to assassinate Dany. I gave it some thought and came up with 4 possible teories for this. Here is what i came up with:
1) they were talking about slowing ned down so the most likely possibility was he was doing just that. he is master of whisper which means he is always gathering info. on ppl which means (i assume at least) he knows how ppl would act in certain situations. i think he knew that the proposal 2 kill a 14 yr old child would anger ned, and that he would adamantly object, and i think he knew that ned and robbert would get into that argument, which would lead ned 2 quit and or b fired as Hand, which would most likely cause him 2 leave kings landing, thus delaying, or just altogether halting the investigation of john arryn's death. and with that on hold, ned wont have proof that the lannisters were behind it and so the imminent war would be held off.
2) varys knew that drogo would react the way he did and speed up the process of the dorthraki invasion, after all mormont is a spy 4 varys and he would probably have known that drogo and dany r falling in love and so probably would have reported it 2 varys who deduced the reaction drogo had. but im not sure about this cuz they did after all talk about delaying the war not speeding up the dorthraki
but on the other hand it is possible that word of tyrion's capture has reached varys after the conversation with illyrio and so he decided on that
3) is a combination of 1 and 2: in one brilliant sweeping move varys delayed war and sped up the dorthraki invasion. this makes the most sense except that if word of tyrion's capture did reach varys idk if he would try 2 delay ned since that would bring the starks and the lannisters very close 2 war, proof of the murder of john arryn or not.............UNLESS he knew robert would not have them going 2 war so it really would have stopped them, at least until ned would find proof of murder, in which case it is quite possible robert would go 2 war with the lannisters himself. but this theory involves the assumption that varys would knoew EXACTLY how each person would react, which even for the great master of whispers he is, might be a little 2 much
4) he thought that dany would be killed by the assassin and that would make drogo want 2 invade 2 get revenge. it is possible because it isnt clear which targaryn they want on the throne, or if they care which 1. but it is not likely cuz b4 mormont stops the assassin he gets a message from illyrio, which could be nothing, or it could b him getting word of the specifics of the assassination attempt so that he could stop it. even if they do want viserys, technically the rightful heir on the throne they wouldnt want 2 kill dany anyway.
Edited by Stubby, 06 November 2011 - 11:49 PM.