275 replies to this topic

[Bran Vras]

Just an idea: The letter is a song. Or rather it mimics a song by its rhythmical properties (repetitions etc). But which one?

Of course, it would mean that the letter was written, or at least conceived, by Mance, an expert of the repertoire, and inclined to devise variations of the classical songs. I wish i could offer more evidence for what is just an idea.

[dark sister]

tze, on 29 August 2011 - 08:35 PM, said:

Mel has huge difficulty glamouring someone, but the faceless men don't appear to have the same problem. My point being that, although Mel constantly pats herself on the back for her huge and awesome powers, we've seen other characters accomplish very similar things with far less difficulty (the Faceless Men appear to have far greater glamour powers than Mel, Bloodraven allegedly glamoured himself as "Maynard Plumm" in The Mystery Knight, Mel's fire-visions are very similar to Jojen's green dreams and can't compare at all to the powers of a greenseer, etc.). We don't know very much about how Melisandre's "Rattleshirt" glamour was created, only that she probably used Rattleshirt's bone armor in the crafting. I would be shocked if Mance hadn't investigated Mel's ruby a bit---he doesn't seem the sort to just quietly follow someone else's plan. Maybe he even took it to some magic user (Morna White Mask, the warrior witch?) that he thought could suss out its secrets. It's possible that the glamour is malleable, and Mance realized it could be adapted to other people if he switched out Rattleshirt's bones with other items. (Mel was very nervous when he wasn't wearing the bones, remember.)

Sorry I couldn't read through 14 pages of this, but I was wondering about one thing...you said that Bloodraven allegedly glamoured himself as Maynard Plumm. I got that feeling too. Was there a thread where this idea was discussed, or is it just your own idea?  I know it's getting a little off-topic but I was very interested to know...

Edited by dark sister, 23 December 2011 - 08:56 PM.

[Ser Cornholio of Titikaka!]

Bran Vras, on 23 December 2011 - 03:53 PM, said:

Just an idea: The letter is a song. Or rather it mimics a song by its rhythmical properties (repetitions etc). But which one?

Of course, it would mean that the letter was written, or at least conceived, by Mance, an expert of the repertoire, and inclined to devise variations of the classical songs. I wish i could offer more evidence for what is just an idea.

Best idea yet.

[NymStark]

So I came upon the idea that it might be Theon who wrote the letter and then came onto the forum to see if anyone else had the same view. I am still wrappring my head around the idea that it might be Theon who wrote the letter. But I think logically for him it makes perfect sense, get 2 of the people he wants to get rid of kill each other, Ramsay Bolton and Jon Snow, Ramsay-self-explanatory and Jon as Theon believes he is the last person alive who will recognise Arya and therefore needs to be offed off.

[MtnLion]

NymStark, on 22 April 2012 - 08:10 PM, said:

So I came upon the idea that it might be Theon who wrote the letter and then came onto the forum to see if anyone else had the same view. I am still wrappring my head around the idea that it might be Theon who wrote the letter. But I think logically for him it makes perfect sense, get 2 of the people he wants to get rid of kill each other, Ramsay Bolton and Jon Snow, Ramsay-self-explanatory and Jon as Theon believes he is the last person alive who will recognise Arya and therefore needs to be offed off.

Ah, but Theon knows that Sansa, Bran, and Rickon are alive, too.  Nobody, except an old gravedigger with a limp knows that Arya is still puttering around.  (Well, we do have witnesses all over the Brotherhood notably excepting UnCat.)

[VaramyrSixchins]

I think the only true info in that letter is the knowledge of Mance Rayder, prob thru the torture of a spearwife.

When we left ADWD, Stannis had
A) Jon's warning re:Karstarks via the banker
the banker himself, i.e. a fresh infusion of critical resources
C) Theon, who's capture not only heartens the "North remembers" crowd in Stannis's army, but who possesses intelligence devastating to the Bolton cause ( Arya, Bran/Rikkon, and the knowledge of Ramsey being the brainchild behind the B/R deception)
D) the albeit grudging fealty of a wildling contingent
E) the NW owes him a solid
F) access to a port on both coasts-Eastwatch and Deepwood
G) most importantly, "Arya", the ENTIRE LINCHPIN IN THE BOLTON CLAIM

    Stannis has all the cards and is a shrewd enuff tactician to know it. Unless the harsh weather conditions necessitate it, his incentive is GREATLY diminished to order a charge thru the snow towards one of the most legendarily defensible castles in the realm.

    So, if the description of Stannis's death is to be believed, it stands to reason the Boltons wld have to take the fight to Stannis. Which means  the Manderlys and Freys, while desperate to kill each other, must fight TOGETHER, defeat the Umbers outside WF, trek thru the snow to Stannis, beat his forces, kill Stannis, and somehow do all this without recapturing Jeyne or Theon. HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

    I don't think Ramsay wrote the letter. The previous oft-used "spiky" adjective isn't present in connection to the pink letter. More importantly, as Ramsay has, on two occasions, enclosed flayed pieces of Theon in previous letters, I find it very hard to believe that the sadistic Bastard of Bolton cld write a letter of such goading and sneering tone from a position of supposed power and NOT include a grisly trophy, like a flayed piece of Stannis or Mance.

    Whatever happened the bottom line is that the Boltons no longer hold "Arya". With Tywin dead and no one in the south to fear, the northmen's hands are only stayed by Ramsay's marriage to "Arya." THE NORTH REMEMBERS. When "Arya" is not returned to WF, it's Defcon 5 panic time for the Boltons. And, if she goes to the Wall, Jon Snow is a man that cld unravel the Boltons whole plot.
Not only can he name "Arya" as fake, but as a Stark, her brother and the leader of a traditionally neutral force, he will be believed by all the North.

    I think the pink letter was written by Roose, and not to taunt Jon into coming to WF, but to convince him to stay neutral. Roose analyzed the sitch as "OK here's a guy that didn't desert when his father was beheaded, his brother called the banners, his two youngest bros were killed, or come and stop the wedding of his sister. We can cow and subdue him. Let's let him know that if he spills the beans on our "Arya" deception, we will spill the beans about his Mance deceptiion, and that should stand him down."

[redriver]

VaramyrSixchins, on 24 April 2012 - 08:44 AM, said:

I think the only true info in that letter is the knowledge of Mance Rayder, prob thru the torture of a spearwife.

When we left ADWD, Stannis had
A) Jon's warning re:Karstarks via the banker
the banker himself, i.e. a fresh infusion of critical resources
C) Theon, who's capture not only heartens the "North remembers" crowd in Stannis's army, but who possesses intelligence devastating to the Bolton cause ( Arya, Bran/Rikkon, and the knowledge of Ramsey being the brainchild behind the B/R deception)
D) the albeit grudging fealty of a wildling contingent
E) the NW owes him a solid
F) access to a port on both coasts-Eastwatch and Deepwood
G) most importantly, "Arya", the ENTIRE LINCHPIN IN THE BOLTON CLAIM

Stannis has all the cards and is a shrewd enuff tactician to know it. Unless the harsh weather conditions necessitate it, his incentive is GREATLY diminished to order a charge thru the snow towards one of the most legendarily defensible castles in the realm.

So, if the description of Stannis's death is to be believed, it stands to reason the Boltons wld have to take the fight to Stannis. Which means  the Manderlys and Freys, while desperate to kill each other, must fight TOGETHER, defeat the Umbers outside WF, trek thru the snow to Stannis, beat his forces, kill Stannis, and somehow do all this without recapturing Jeyne or Theon. HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

I don't think Ramsay wrote the letter. The previous oft-used "spiky" adjective isn't present in connection to the pink letter. More importantly, as Ramsay has, on two occasions, enclosed flayed pieces of Theon in previous letters, I find it very hard to believe that the sadistic Bastard of Bolton cld write a letter of such goading and sneering tone from a position of supposed power and NOT include a grisly trophy, like a flayed piece of Stannis or Mance.

Whatever happened the bottom line is that the Boltons no longer hold "Arya". With Tywin dead and no one in the south to fear, the northmen's hands are only stayed by Ramsay's marriage to "Arya." THE NORTH REMEMBERS. When "Arya" is not returned to WF, it's Defcon 5 panic time for the Boltons. And, if she goes to the Wall, Jon Snow is a man that cld unravel the Boltons whole plot.
Not only can he name "Arya" as fake, but as a Stark, her brother and the leader of a traditionally neutral force, he will be believed by all the North.

I think the pink letter was written by Roose, and not to taunt Jon into coming to WF, but to convince him to stay neutral. Roose analyzed the sitch as "OK here's a guy that didn't desert when his father was beheaded, his brother called the banners, his two youngest bros were killed, or come and stop the wedding of his sister. We can cow and subdue him. Let's let him know that if he spills the beans on our "Arya" deception, we will spill the beans about his Mance deceptiion, and that should stand him down."

If that was Roose's intent it was a failure.Jon read the letter out to everyone at Castle Black,NW,Queen's Men and Wildlings.So the Mance deception is out and it has reached it's target audience, the Wildlings.

It tells them your King is alive,but in trouble,come and get him.Mance knows all the truths in the letter,he doesn't have to torture anyone to get it.

Of course,it could have been any of the main candidates but Mance is the one you have to make the fewest assumptions about.

Jon getting stabbed etc was an unintended consequence.

[alienarea]

I have added a few thoughts on this over in the Theon I, version 4 thread in the Winds of Winter section. Because it involves some spoilers I'll repost in spoiler tags:

Spoiler

Let's take a look at the letter line by line. The letter as in ADwD is in italics.


Bastard

Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore.

In my interpretation this gives an indication on when the letter was written. In the second to last parapgraph of the Melisandre chapter in ADwD when Melisandre is with Mance and Jon she says "Our false king has a prickly manner" about Mance. The letter starts with "Your false king is dead" which I strongly assume is Mance getting back at Jon telling about Stannis.

Because of the betrayal of the Karstark maester the Bolton's know where Stannis has his camp - three days away from Winterfell. We have discussed three days to go there, one day of fighting, three days to go back multiple times. Assuming the Manderley's return after seven days with Stannis' sword which they gave to Roose or Ramsay, Mance as Abel would learn this. He can't know whether Stannis lives and must assume he's dead (which is also a possibility).

Your false king’s friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. Come see them, bastard. Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me.

Assumption is that the heads belong to the Karstarks. Stannis wants to kill them anyway, so he could have done that and gave their heads to the Manderley's as proof that Stannis was defeated. Roose and Ramsay won't mind bout dead Karstarks because it covers their conspiracy as well. A traitor gambit.

I will have my bride back. If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him. I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies. The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell.

The sender of the letter  knows that Abel is Mance, that he was accompanied by six spearwives, and his mission was to rescue ‘Arya’. This is known to Mance, possibly the six spearwives, Melisandre, and Jon.

The line "if you want Mance Rayder back come and get him" might be the same theme as with Theon: you have to know your name. Is this where Mance intended to give away who is the sender of the letter? (thanks to Rockroi for guiding me there)

The cage could be the crypts, an abandoned tower, or Winterfell as a whole. Mance is hiding but can't get out. Cold cage = trapped in the crypts? Mance has discovered something in the crypts and trapped himself there. The spearwives supply him with warmth (food?) but he needs Jon in person to get out?

A late idea by redriver in the Theon I thread was that the "skins of the six" could be a code referring to Varamyr, but I can't figure out what the purpose of this could be.

I want my bride back. I want the false king’s queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want his wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my Reek. Sent them to me, bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard’s heart and eat it.

Most telling for me is the "eat your heart" part. IMHO this refers to the ADwD prologue and Varamyr eating Haggon's heart to finally kill the warg. I speculate this is what makes Jon go to Winterfell. AFAIK Ramsay doesn't know about warging, but Mance does. And Ramsay wouldn't know what to ask for if flaying Mance.

Regarding the hostages, the bride seems to be most important, Reek the least. And since the wildlings don’t know that Mance is still alive, why care for his son and Val? The sender of the letter can only know about them from either Mance or one of the spearwives.

Also, the term "black crows". IIRC only the wildlings call the NW "black crows". One more: Why would Ramsay threaten the NW? They are supposed to keep out of all matters of the realm. And he would need to march North to fight them. That doesn't make sense.

Ramsay Bolton,

Trueborn Lord of Winterfell

When Jon discusses the letter with Tormund, he claims there is some truth in it. Apparently Melisandre knows the letter is coming before it is there.

Some information in the letter can only come from Mance or the spearwives. So either Mance has been captured or he is one of the authors.

The main motives for the letters are proving Jon's lies and getting 'the bride' back. Both are connected. By proving Jon lies, any claim of Jon that 'the bride' is fake could be regarded as a lie by the NW as well. It puts Jon in a difficult situation, mildly put.

Scenario: Manderley's troops return with Stannis' sword, after being away for seven days. Mance learns about the sword and assumes Stannis to be dead. He is in Winterfell, hiding in the godswood (cage of weirwood), naked (without protection/weapons), only the skins of the spearwives keep him warm (he only trusts the spearwives). The prove your lies part would be a pun at Jon who fooled Mance when he was undercover with the wildlings. All the hostages make sense for Mance - he knows these people won't be safe at the wall with the tensions between the Night Watch and the wildlings which are easy to predict for him. Why would Ramsay or Roose care about Val and/or Mance's baby? And Mance knows enough about warging to make the threat to eat Jon's heart. I assume this is the code that finally gives Mance away to Jon and why he is discussing the letter for two hours with Tormund.

Another wild guess: we have wondered where Mance wants to lead the wildlings to for living once they are South of the wall: Winterfell.

What is particularly odd is that Jon reads the letter in the shield hall. If it is the same letter the wildlings in the hall would know that Mance is alive and someone else was burned - wouldn't they hurry to Winterfell immediately? Also, the queens men and the Night Watch would know that Stannis and Melisandre cheated on them - maybe this is why Bowen and co act in a hurry?

The question about Mance's motive for writing the letter is simple: He wants his name and title back, therefore the repeated emphasis false king for Stannis.

[VaramyrSixchins]

redriver, on 24 April 2012 - 11:20 AM, said:

If that was Roose's intent it was a failure.

Oh, it failed miserably. In this scenario, Roose fucked up. But that in itself doesn't invalidate the scenario I described

redriver, on 24 April 2012 - 11:20 AM, said:

Of course,it could have been any of the main candidates but Mance is the one you have to make the fewest assumptions about.

Well, I agree that other writers are plausible, but I respectfully disagree on Mance. He requires TONS of assumptions. His motive for impersonating Ramsay, his knowledge of the wildling numbers, that he's not in the Bolton's hands, that he had access to a raven, could tell that the raven he selected was wall bound, that he's free of Mel's influence, that he would want his son and Val delivered to him, on and on. To name Mance as the writer requires not only guesswork, but a lot of "if...then" assumptions of things that aren't necessarily logical.

Alienarea:
The question about Mance's motive for writing the letter is simple: He wants his name and title back, therefore the repeated emphasis false king for Stannis.


I always got the impression from my readings that Mance's motive for becoming K-B-T-W was to unite the wildlings for a mass exodous south, not necessarily a desire to rule.

[alienarea]

VaramyrSixchins, on 25 April 2012 - 08:34 AM, said:

....
Alienarea:
The question about Mance's motive for writing the letter is simple: He wants his name and title back, therefore the repeated emphasis false king for Stannis.


I always got the impression from my readings that Mance's motive for becoming K-B-T-W was to unite the wildlings for a mass exodous south, not necessarily a desire to rule.

The wildlings are south of the wall now. But what did Mance plan once he got there? Also, yes it is speculation but IMHO it's safe to assume he didn't plan on giving up his name and living in obscurity.

[Sword Of Mid Afternoon]

Letter smacks of Ramsay.

[Lord Tywin's Privy]

tze, on 29 August 2011 - 08:35 PM, said:

Mel has huge difficulty glamouring someone, but the faceless men don't appear to have the same problem. My point being that, although Mel constantly pats herself on the back for her huge and awesome powers, we've seen other characters accomplish very similar things with far less difficulty (the Faceless Men appear to have far greater glamour powers than Mel, Bloodraven allegedly glamoured himself as "Maynard Plumm" in The Mystery Knight, Mel's fire-visions are very similar to Jojen's green dreams and can't compare at all to the powers of a greenseer, etc.). We don't know very much about how Melisandre's "Rattleshirt" glamour was created, only that she probably used Rattleshirt's bone armor in the crafting. I would be shocked if Mance hadn't investigated Mel's ruby a bit---he doesn't seem the sort to just quietly follow someone else's plan. Maybe he even took it to some magic user (Morna White Mask, the warrior witch?) that he thought could suss out its secrets. It's possible that the glamour is malleable, and Mance realized it could be adapted to other people if he switched out Rattleshirt's bones with other items. (Mel was very nervous when he wasn't wearing the bones, remember.)

I don't necessarily subscribe to the theory that Mance has taken Ramsay's place, but it does have its interesting points. Mance must hate Stannis---Stannis wants the Free Folk on their knees, worshipping some foreign god (Jon, at least, is more palatable on those points). I can't imagine he'd entrust his whole plan to Theon Turncloak, and the fact that his "plan" involved sending Theon Kinslayer and a girl who looked nothing like Jon (and nothing like that girl he saw at the feast for Robert) to Stannis, when Jon never wanted Stannis to have Arya, could just reinforce that point in my mind. Asking for his own loved ones makes sense, and asking for hostages against Stannis makes even more sense, if he's trying to neutralize Stannis.

Where did you hear that Bloodraven glamoured himself as Maynard Plumm in the Mystory Knight? It seemed to me like Plumm was just a Targ loyalist. Is there a thread somewhere that elucidates this theory more??

[Dunzel]

Sword Of Mid Afternoon, on 26 April 2012 - 01:44 PM, said:

Letter smacks of Ramsay.

If this letter "smacks of Ramsay" then where is the flayed skin Ramsay likes to include in his provocative letters?
A letter where skinning is mentioned as having been done, but no skin is included - not likely.

To V6chins: A raven bound for the wall would be no problem for Mance if he escapes WF (likely) and heads for Stannis (likely) as Stannis took ravens with him when he left the wall.

I'm in the Mance camp. I believe Jon and Mance are working together to "save" the wildings

[Lonmouth]

Why would he put a piece of skin in it?  And who's skin?  The pieces of skin in the previous letters were "pieces of prince" Theon.  Why would you think every letter he sent would have to have a piece of skin in it thereafter?  

It's Ramsay.  No one else makes sense unless you throw in a ton of what if's and maybes and it all becomes entirely too convoluted.

[By the Old Gods Not theNew]

Presumably the entire point of the letter, if it's from Ramsay, is to menace Jon. Furthermore the last time he sent a letter, w/ less reason to be menacing, he wrote it in blood (a bad form of ink, that flaked off when touched) and included a flap of skin, even though he had very little of Theon's actual skin. Yet the Pink Letter lacks both blood and skin despite the fact that both are readily available and seemingly more appropriate considering the purpose of the letter.

[fassreiter]

By the Old Gods Not theNew, on 07 December 2012 - 12:25 PM, said:

Presumably the entire point of the letter, if it's from Ramsay, is to menace Jon. Furthermore the last time he sent a letter, w/ less reason to be menacing, he wrote it in blood (a bad form of ink, that flaked off when touched) and included a flap of skin, even though he had very little of Theon's actual skin. Yet the Pink Letter lacks both blood and skin despite the fact that both are readily available and seemingly more appropriate considering the purpose of the letter.

The last letter to Jon was written in blood, but didn't include any skin. Catelyn and Asha got letters with skin in it, no one else did. It is by no means his signature, it served a purpose in each case. Ramsay send proof of Theon's torture to a Stark with the intention of making her happy (and to build up a position of power), to a Greyjoy in order to upset her (trick her into doing something stupid). It's different with Jon, Jon neither loves nor hates any of the wildlings Ramsay supposedly captured. Besides, the letter doesn't need any applications, the knowledge it conveys is proof enough this time. And the letter threatens Jon with this knowledge. Ramsay had nothing to threaten Asha with, so he put some empty threats and a piece of prince into the letter.